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from Expert Zone:

India Market Weekahead – Policy action, rupee to decide market direction

(The views expressed in this column are the author's own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The week gone by displayed indecisiveness by participants as the markets garnered small gains after moving in a tight range. The Nifty managed to hold on to the 4900 level mark as investors cheered the government’s announcement to raise petrol prices in an attempt to revive the policy inaction tag.

State-run oil marketing firms took the long overdue step of raising petrol prices by 7.50 rupees per litre -- the steepest ever increase in retail prices. The revision comes as the rupee hit an all-time low against the dollar leading to a jump in the oil import bill. As expected, the government faces strong protests by the opposition and a partial rollback could be on the cards in the next few days. This could also delay the decision on the increase in retail prices of diesel and LPG which form a lion’s share of the subsidy bill and is one of the important signals about the seriousness of the government to pull through bold and tough measures.

The rupee slid further during the week and crossed 56 a dollar. Token measures by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in the form of 50 percent conversion of exporters’ dollar holdings into rupee provided some respite. Given the short-term risk conditions, the rupee will remain generally on the defensive and a rally beyond 52-53 does not seem likely in the near-term.

The coming week may see heightened volatility as the derivatives contracts are set to expire on Thursday. The announcement of January- March 2012 quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data on Friday will provide an important indicator of the health of the economy but again the expectation is tempered. The Indian economy expanded 6.1 percent in the October-December 2011 quarter from a year earlier, the weakest pace of expansion in more than two years, hurt by slower growth in manufacturing output and a contraction in mining production. With current account and fiscal deficit along with weak investment climate playing a spoilsport, the GDP scare has intensified further.

HSBC's monthly purchasing managers' index (PMI), which indicates the health of the manufacturing sector, is likely to be released some time this week. The HSBC India PMI rose to 54.9 in April from 54.7 in March.

Automobile and cement shares will be in focus as companies from these two sectors will start unveiling monthly sales volume data for May 2012 from Friday. After a fall in April 2012 sales, demand continues to remain weak in May. Pessimism is expected to increase after the recent hike in fuel prices. May is a seasonally muted month for car makers and inventory levels are also expected to be high.

from Expert Zone:

India Market Weekahead – Volatile market within a narrow range

(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

A sharper-than-expected cut of 50 basis points in the repo rate boosted the benchmark indices early during the week. However, as expected, the Nifty could not gain higher than 5350 as apprehensions about the limited scope of further rate cuts suppressed sentiment.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) sounded cautious as recent growth trends indicate the economy is operating below its post-crisis levels. We anticipate a very limited scope for further reduction in policy rates going ahead as persistent liquidity deficit would make rate cuts difficult. Also the upside risk to inflation remains and further slippage on the fiscal front can aggravate inflationary pressure.

Globally, the euro zone markets also witnessed positive action following a successful bond auction by Spain and France. Appetite for these bonds during such distress times renewed some hope of revival in that region.

Reliance Industries came out with its Q4FY12 numbers after market hours on Friday. Its net profit of 42.4 billion rupees just fell short of the street estimate of 43 billion rupees, down 21 pct year-on-year. Lower production from its KGD6 offshore fields and weak refining margins dented profits. Sales, however, grew 16 pct to 878 billion rupees. Due to falling KGD6 production and weak cyclical margins, its near-term earnings are expected to remain subdued. The stock should remain sideways for some more time due to a lack of positive triggers, with the downside protected due to the ongoing buyback plan. Among cement heavyweights, Ambuja and ACC results also disappointed markets.

For the coming week, the markets are expected to remain volatile on account of derivative expiry. Some of the major corporate results -- beginning with TCS on Monday -- will remain crucial. Others include Sesa Goa, Wipro, Sterlite Industries, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Jindal Steel & Power, Siemens and Maruti Suzuki.

The rupee continued to be weak quoting above 52 rupees against the dollar. Though the RBI intervention in the currency market was expected to stem the fall, there doesn’t seem to be any such move. The rupee would continue to remain weak within a range. Oil prices gave some respite by correcting to $118.Closer home, with no action on increasing the retail prices of petro products, the subsidy burden continues to balloon.

LIVE BLOG: Sensex, Nifty plunge to 2011 lows

The BSE Sensex and Nifty plunged to fresh 2011 lows in Wednesday trade, a day before the expiry of derivatives contracts, amid renewed worries about faltering global growth.

Sensex gains on strong economic data

The BSE Sensex ended 2.6 percent up on Thursday on good corporate results and robust economic data.

Data released on Thursday showed infrastructure output grew 6.5 percent in June while the Wholesale Price Index fell 1.17 percent in the 12 months to July 11.

The 30-share sensitive index swung from an intra-day low of 14,843 to an intra-day high of 15,264 and closed 388 points higher at 15,231.

The fifty-share Nifty ended 2.8 percent up to 4,523.

On the sectoral front, the BSE Realty Index rose 5.08 percent, followed by the Consumer Durable Index which ended 4.4 percent higher. All other indices ended the day in the green.

Bharti Airtel came out with forecast-beating 24 percent rise in quarterly profits, while Maruti Suzuki reported an unexpected 25 percent rise in quarterly net profits.

Shares in Bharti Airtel ended 1.09 percent down at 813, while Maruti Suzuki ended 6.4 percent higher at 1295 rupees.

Sensex slips below 15,000; Wipro drops

The BSE Sensex erased early morning gains of over 2 percent and ended 1.46 percent down on Wednesday as weak sentiments across Asia downplayed investor sentiments.

The 30-share sensitive index swung from an intra-day high of 15,369 to an intra-day low of 14,786 and closed 219 points lower at 14,843.

The fifty-share Nifty ended 1.57 percent down to 4398.

IT and capital goods stocks saw some heavy selling while most of the other sectors pared their early gains.

On the sectoral front, the BSE Capital Goods Index dropped 1.87 percent, followed by the Auto Index which ended 1.61 percent lower. All other indices ended the day in the red.

Wipro Ltd beat estimates with a 13 percent rise in quarterly profit but joined its bigger rivals in giving a cautious forecast due to uncertainty in the global economy.

Shares in Wipro ended 1.52 percent lower at 451 rupees on the muted outlook.

ICICI Bank leads Sensex decline

The BSE Sensex ended 0.85 percent down on Tuesday, as investors saw an opportunity to book profits after the market rallied 13.4 percent over the past five sessions.

The 30-share sensitive index swung from an intra-day high of 15,234 to an intra-day low of 14,955 and closed 128 points lower at 15,062.

The fifty-share Nifty ended 0.74 percent down to 4,469.

The fall in the Sensex was led by ICICI Bank, ITC and Infosys.

IT stocks felt some heat after a sharp rally triggered by better-than-expected Q1 June 2009 results by TCS, India’s top software services firm by sales.

The decline in IT stocks was led by TCS which fell 4.5 percent after surging over 15 percent on Monday. Infosys dropped 1.5 percent and Wipro was down 0.46 percent.

TCS leads Sensex over 15,000

The BSE Sensex extended gains on Monday to cross the 15,000 mark as hopes of recovery in corporate earnings boosted confidence worldwide.

The 30-share sensitive index swung from an intra-day low of 14,854 to an intra-day high of 15,209 and closed  446 points higher at 15,191. The fifty-share Nifty ended 2.91 percent higher at 4502.

IT stocks rose on better-than-expected Q1 results by TCS, India’s largest IT exporter by sales, announced after trading hours on Friday. Shares in TCS ended 15.34 percent higher at 500.10 rupees.

On the sectoral front, the BSE IT Index rose 7.2 percent, followed by the Realty Index which ended 4.91 percent higher. However, the BSE FMCG Index closed 0.49 percent lower.

Shares in Reliance Industries, which challenged a lower court ruling to supply gas to Reliance Natural at below-market price, ended 5.03 percent higher, while Reliance Natural shares were down 2.6 percent.

Do you see the market uptrend continuing this week?

Sensex range bound in choppy trade

The Sensex remained volatile in trade and ended 0.08 percent lower on fears of a fall in corporate earnings for the June quarter.

IT bellwether Infosys Technologies, will kick off the earnings season on Friday.

The rupee weakened to 49/dollar, its weakest since May 18. It was down 2.2 percent on week early in opening trade.

The Wholesale Price Index fell 1.55 percent, with the primary and food article indices gaining and the fuel index remained unchanged. Manufacturing, however, slipped 0.1 pct.

The 30-share sensitive index swung from an intra-day high of 13,879 to an intra-day low of 13,643 and closed 11 points lower at 13,757. The fifty-share Nifty ended 0.05 percent higher at 4080.

On the sectoral front, the BSE Consumer Durable Index dropped 1.4 percent, followed by the Capital Goods Index which ended 1.07 percent lower. However, the BSE Metal Index closed 1.53 percent higher.

FIIs bought net $158.5 million in shares and sold $3.6 million in debt.

Sensex tanks on global economic worries

Selling pressure pulled the BSE Sensex below 14,000 on Wednesday as concerns over global economic recovery spooked financial markets all around.

Trade was volatile and the 30-share sensitive index touched an intra-day low of 13,701 before closing 401 points lower at 13,769. The fifty-share Nifty ended 2.93 percent down at 4,078.

The fall in the benchmark was led by L&T, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank.

On the sectoral front, the BSE Realty Index dropped 8.47 percent, followed by the Capital Goods Index which ended 5.05 percent lower. All other indices ended in the red.

On the global front, Asian and European markets felt the selling heat as investors pulled funds out of bets on the global economic recovery.

Doubts about the strength of the global economy saw oil prices falling more that a dollar. Do you think the Sensex fall is a sign of a downtrend setting in, or is it a correction that will see the benchmark scaling new heights?

Sensex rises in choppy trade

The BSE Sensex ended 0.9 percent up on Tuesday, recovering from yesterday’s biggest one-day drop in six months.

The benchmark turned negative during trade after rising more than 1 percent, as a large budget deficit weighed on investors’ minds. Trade was volatile and the 30-share sensitive index swung from an intra-day low of 14,000 to an intra-day high of 14,252 and closed 127 points higher at 14,170.

The fifty-share Nifty ended 0.87 percent up at 4,202.

The rise in the benchmark was led by ITC, L&T, ICICI Bank and Bharti Airtel.

On the sectoral front, the BSE Auto Index gained 3.92 percent, followed by the FMCG Index which ended 3.83 percent higher. However, the BSE Oil & Gas Index closed 1.32 percent lower.

On the global front, Asian and European markets ended lower as investors remained nervous ahead of upcoming second-quarter results.

Do you think the Sensex will recover and touch 15000 levels again?