Money on the markets

from Expert Zone:

India Market Weekahead: RBI policy holds the key

(The views expressed in this column are the author's own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Markets extended a rally for the third consecutive week led by strong FII inflows. FIIs have pumped in $1.2 billion so far this year as risk sentiment stabilised after several European debt auctions saw lower borrowing rates and overwhelming demand. Improvement in U.S. economic data, rupee appreciation and December quarter earnings exceeding lower expectations helped the market rally nearly 8 pct in three weeks.

The initial set of corporate results surprised the street as HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Wipro, TCS, HCL Technologies and Hero MotoCorp posted better-than-expected numbers.

However, Reliance Industries (RIL) disappointed with a net profit de-growth of 13.6 pct year-on-year on the back of lower refining and petrochem margins. Its gross refining margins declined sharply to $6.8 per barrel from $9 per barrel. The buyback of $2 billion at a maximum price up to 870 rupees/share for up to 120 million shares or 3.6 pct equity via open market is seen as a cover-up for the subdued results. RIL stock has already gained 8 pct during the week after the announcement of the buy-back program. We may see a knee-jerk reaction to the results when trading opens on Monday but the buy-back may provide a cushion at the lower end.

As expected, shares of power generation companies gained after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh pledged help on chronic power shortages in the country in its meeting with business leaders. Our top pick Tata Power jumped 9 pct while NTPC gained 5 pct. Any action at the ground level will lend a helping hand to other sectors such as banking where there is a fear of NPAs from the power sector as well as capital goods which has seen a slowdown in order flows.

The rupee maintained a stronger tone during the week and strengthened to near 50 levels against the dollar. Sustained net inflows so far in 2012 along with short covering helped strengthen the rupee. It may be difficult for the rupee to extend the recovery further in the near term and we expected consolidation at current levels.

The coming week is truncated on account of Republic Day on January 26. We have the all important quarter review of monetary policy on January 24. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to keep its key lending rate -- the repo rate -- steady. However, a few sections of the market are expecting a CRR cut.

from Expert Zone:

2012 – Boom or Doom?

(The views expressed in this column are the author's own and do not represent those of Reuters)

What a year 2011 has been. Except certain commodities such as gold and oil, every other asset class has been hit. With Sensex down more than 20 pct YTD, 10 year g-sec yields up by almost 1 pct and rupee down by almost 14 pct against the dollar, it has been a poor year for investors. This was caused by a bout of strong global risk aversion led by the European sovereign debt crisis, high inflation in emerging markets and consequent monetary tightening, and lack of proper policy action in India. The only salvation came from commodities such as oil (up almost 26 pct in rupee terms) and gold (up almost 38 pct in rupee terms).

Are any of these likely to continue haunting us in 2012? Or will there be a new set of problems? Is the worst already behind us? That's the million dollar question on everybody's mind. The irony is few of us, if at all, have the right answers. Still based on evidence available today, one can hazard a guess.

What does 2012 have in store for the investor? There is no doubt that growth has slowed down. The poor industrial growth numbers over the last quarter and the latest second quarter real GDP growth of 6.9 pct (manufacturing growth was a mere 2.7 pct whereas mining output contracted) drive the point home.

Is it going to change in a hurry? Seems improbable. After all, more than a year of continuous rate hikes should have taken its toll on growth. And to top it up, inflation is yet to subside at least on a year on year basis, even though that is not the best way to look at it. The fall in the rupee hasn't helped either, exacerbating the already high trade deficit and inflation by making imports costlier.

But aren't we pricing it all in? Aren't equity valuations cheap and yields already near 2008 highs? True. But stocks can get cheaper still? Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Remember, we are still looking at Sensex valuations with respect to FY13 earnings which price in a 16-17 pct growth over FY12. Whereas FY12 earnings growth is already being revised down to 10 pct, expected FY13 growth can be downgraded further if macro indicators worsen. Also, the Sensex earnings yield (basis forward PE of 13-13.5 as per FY13 earnings estimate) at approx 7.5 pct is still short (approx 0.8 pct) of the one year bond yield. Historically, equity markets have come out of a bear phase once Sensex earnings yields have been higher than bond yields by more than approx 50 pct i.e. the ratio between Sensex forward earnings yield and bond yields has been around 1.5. On this basis, valuations seem to be in a fair zone rather than being screaming cheap. For Sensex yields to become 1.5 times of bond yields today either the Sensex will have to be de-rated further or the bond yields will have to come down significantly. It is unlikely that either of these events happen in isolation. Rather a combination of both, i.e. a price or time correction in stocks coupled with the bond yields coming off significantly seems to be a more plausible scenario going ahead.

The initial part of the year 2012 (probably the first half) thus might continue to see high volatility as a result of the above. But as we move to the latter half of 2012, things should start improving. Bond yields are most likely to have come down quite some distance by that time (assuming that inflation moderates -- month on month growth momentum in core WPI inflation is already showing signs of slowing down -- and RBI starts cutting rates) and equities should be available at a real bargain by then. The second half of 2012 should thus be much better than the first.

Unitech shares jump more than 9 pct

Shares in Unitech, one of India’s leading real estate firms, rose 9.3 percent to close at 38.2 rupees, after a sell-off amid allegations that the firm was among those who were favoured in 2G licence grants in 2008.

On Tuesday, the CBI questioned Unitech’s MD as part of a probe into the alleged telecoms corruption scandal.

In 2011, shares in Unitech have slumped over 42 percent. Do you think it is the right time to invest in this counter?

Mahindra Satyam shares jump on earnings

Software services exporter Mahindra Satyam jumped 11.7 percent to 64.65 rupees after the firm reported its third quarter net profit, which more than doubled from a quarter ago.

The company also said that it put a planned merger with its parent firm, Tech Mahindra, on hold.

Shares in Tech Mahindra ended 10.6 percent higher.

Do you think it is a good time to buy Mahindra Satyam’s shares?

Good day for RIL shares

Shares in Reliance Industries, India’s top listed firm, gained 4 percent on Friday, helping the benchmark Sensex post gains of more than 250 points.

RIL, which has the highest weight in the Sensex, ended with volumes of 944,021 on BSE.

The stock had hit an intra-day low of 980 rupees but managed to recover.

Do you think it is the right time to invest in RIL shares?

Real estate index rises

Stocks of real estate firms posted decent gains on Thursday, with HDIL standing out with a 9 percent jump.

The realty index closed 2.2 percent higher, topping the BSE sectoral indices table.

Top firms DLF and Unitech notched gains of 0.7 percent and 1.6 percent respectively.

The sectoral index has gained 12.4 percent this week. Do you think it is the right time to enter this sector?

IOC shares surge

Shares in Indian Oil Corporation ended 10.96 percent higher on Wednesday. Its chairman said the firm aims to raise $4.4 billion in January through a FPO and that the pricing for offer was likely to be at 450 rupees apiece.

Shares were up as much as 14 percent during trade.

The Indian government is selling a 10 percent stake, while the company will offer an equal number of new shares to raise 20 billion rupees, making the sale the biggest-ever share offering in the Indian market.

Would you invest in IOC at this stage?

Reliance Industries gains

Reliance Industries gained 3.7 percent on Monday, recovering from the recent underperformance.

Shares in India’s top listed firm closed at 998.2 rupees after helping the benchmark index gain more than 200 points.

Bank index falls on probe report

The banking index ended 2.9 percent lower on reports pointing to a probe into loans issued by some financial institutions, adding to investor nervousness.

After market hours, the CBI arrested eight top officials from banks and financial firms on charges of taking bribes to grant corporate loans.

Shares in LIC Housing Finance closed 18.32 percent lower, while Central Bank of India ended 8 percent lower.

Today’s arrests dealt another blow to Indian markets which are already under pressure from a multi-billion dollar telecoms scam.

Do you think bank stocks are going to fall tomorrow?

Realty stocks end lower

It was not a great day for markets and real estate stocks especially, as the sectoral index slipped 3.84 percent.

Indiabulls Real Estate ended down 5.86 percent, followed by DB Realty which slipped 4.6 percent.

Top firms like Unitech and DLF also ended lower, losing 4.5 percent and 3.5 percent respectively. Real estate firm Unitech has a telecoms joint venture with Norway’s Telenor.

Would you take advantage of this fall and enter this sector? Or will you stay away?