Puerto Rico’s flat budget

May 20, 2014

Puerto Rico’s plan for a balanced budget for fiscal year 2015 is ambitious. Economic conditions continue to worsen and the commonwealth had a massive tax revenue shortfall in April. Although bondholders were a promised a balanced budget, uncertain tax collections are threatening a smooth transition away from deficit financing. There appears to be a growing political struggle as Puerto Rico attempts to cut $1.5 billion in operating expenses from a $9.6 billion budget.

The effort to achieve a balanced budget reverses years of deficit spending. In a paper, Moody’s describes the new budget: “The proposed budget carries material risks associated with its implementation and projected revenues. Despite these risks, the budget does indicate positive movement toward structural balance and avoidance of new deficit financing.”


I’m less positive than Moody’s. Some in Puerto Rico have pointed out how spending moved up in 2012 as part of the electoral process to gain support from voters. Post-election spending fell in 2013, inched up slightly in 2014 and is expected to be flat between 2014 and 2015.

Although the overall level of spending is flat between 2014 and 2015, spending on social services and employees will decline by $1.5 billion as payments to bondholders increase and some non-recurring revenue is eliminated.


Is the economy robust enough to slash government spending without slowing employment and economic growth? Moody’s notes that the island’s total non-farm employment last year was 10.2 percent, down since 2007, while mainland employment was just 1 percent less than six years earlier. I think the new budget will add to unemployment figures, while lower personal consumption will decrease tax revenues for the government.

I’m hearing chatter of new taxes on cash transfers and aviation fuel in Puerto Rico. The government is pushing to collect corporate tax revenues from companies that filed extensions for their April tax payments. I’m hearing that some firms are waiting for payment from the government for services and are unable to make tax payments until they receive those funds.

There is enormous pressure on all parts of the government to lower expenses and pay funds owed to other parts of the government. Noticel reports on the University of Puerto Rico’s effort to reduce the annual charge it pays to PREPA, the government electric utility:

Although the president of the University of Puerto Rico, Uroyoán Walker celebrates the operating budget of the institution remain ‘intact,’ the financial stability of the UPR requires a series of measures, which are still under evaluation. Among them is a project of self-sufficient energy to escape the charge of $50 million annually by the Electric Power Authority (PREPA).

Reducing government employment will cut costs, but it could also raise pension costs for some categories of employees:


The next twelve months may be more critical for Puerto Rico than the period before the $3.5 billion general obligation offering in March. The government has set a high threshold for performance.

My comments on Puerto Rico for RT start at 14:28 in the video.

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The executive director of the Institute of Statistics, Mario Marazzi Santiago, appeared before the Committee on Finance and Public Finance of the Senate and requested that the Office of Management and Budget reconsiders the decision to cut almost half the budget of the office that directs and exposed the urgent need to invest in the System Statistics Puerto Rico.
In his presentation to the view held by the Senate Budget Committee, Marazzi Santiago explained that systems Statistics Puerto Rico for decades is “extremely fragile historic neglected to invest” in it. This, according to the official, brought as a direct consequence that “public entities do not have the human capital and technological infrastructure to produce high quality statistics and claimed that the country needs.”

Since its inception, the Institute has had no car or drivers on their payroll or security personnel, or cell. Furthermore, using mostly open-source technology type to save on the purchase of software licenses, not spent on printing and everything, including multiple reports, is published digitally. “We have a small staff (11 people) but with a very high professional level. Also, invest in their training and we support to continue their studies. We benefit from offering internships to graduate students with excellent qualifications, so help us in our projects and they benefit from the experience. During its 6 years of operation, the Institute has met all the goals we have set and we have never exceeded a penny in our budget, “said Executive Director.

http://sincomillas.com/recortan-casi-50- el-presupuesto-del-instituto-de-estadist icas/

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