Examining muniland’s indices after the Libor scandal

By Cate Long
July 30, 2012

The muni market’s overseer, the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board (MSRB), is taking aggressive action to survey muniland indices following the Libor scandal. The board is asking index providers to disclose more about how certain indices are developed. The MSRB has no direct authority to regulate indices because, as with Libor, they are maintained by private companies and are outside of the board’s legislative mandate to regulate dealers. Alan Polsky, the current chairman of the MSRB, said in a press call that the board did not believe that there was any wrongdoing in this corner of the market, but that increasing transparency would enhance investor confidence. Here’s what he stated in a press release:

Muni CDS goes ‘bang’

By Cate Long
April 4, 2012

The use of credit default swaps in muniland is poised to take off, a project that’s being called the “U.S. Municipal CDS Bang.” Starting Apr. 3, the terms and conditions of new muni CDS have been standardized with the stated intent of creating a useful risk-hedging product. This project is being driven not by regulators but by Markit, a private market-data vendor, and the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, a global consortium of Wall Street banks. But it’s not so clear that this is what the market needs at this time.

There is no municipal CDS market

By Cate Long
January 12, 2012

California Treasurer Bill Lockyer, who is responsible for issuing new debt for the state, takes a lot of interest in the price of California’s municipal credit default swaps. The price of muni CDS can affect the cost of issuing new debt, since some investors use muni CDS as a pricing benchmark. But new work published by risk-management firm Kamakura suggests that there is no real market for municipal CDS and prices are generated primarily by broker-dealers posting their best estimates. If a specialty market is just a matter of a few dealers privately sending quotes back and forth, is it a real market? I’m not sure that it is.

Reading the muni CDS tea leaves

By Cate Long
December 2, 2011

I saw a strange tweet this morning that said “State CDS blew out yesterday per Bloomberg. Not sure what I missed here.” The anonymous tweeter attached the image above of graphs of credit-default swaps for 9 big states. Notice the very sharp one-day spike for every state except Ohio. Those spikes mean that those who trade muni CDS suddenly thought U.S. states were riskier, by anywhere from 2.09 percent to 17.02 percent, in one day. That is a big gap up.

Crawling in the dark through the muni CDS market

By Cate Long
November 4, 2011

I’m beginning to think that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis might kill more than municipal credit default swaps. As the financial system trembles alongside the deliberations of the Greek government, areas of the markets that have quietly lumbered along in the dark are getting more and more attention.

Let Europe kill municipal CDS

By Cate Long
October 31, 2011

The solution to Greece’s debt crisis that Europe’s leaders announced on Thursday has market participants and commentators howling. It includes a provision that changes long-established rules for credit-default swaps mid-game. Mike Dolan, Reuters’ Investment Strategy Editor in Europe, said this:

The weakest states are stronger than U.S. banks

By Cate Long
September 23, 2011

The weakest states are stronger than US banks

I noticed something very interesting in some research that Markit, a data provider that tracks the credit-default swap market, released yesterday: the worst U.S. municipal credits (California, Illinois and New Jersey) are considered much stronger than all the major U.S. banks save JP Morgan. New York state is considered stronger than Mr. Dimon’s bank!

Does a downgrade cost anything?

By Cate Long
August 19, 2011

The debt of the United States was downgraded by Standard & Poor’s several weeks ago, but the price of U.S. Treasuries have skyrocketed since then. This confuses many people because a baseline relationship in the fixed-income markets is that lower-rated, less-creditworthy bonds will be relatively cheap and investors will demand higher interest rates to compensate for additional risk.

The swirl of ratings and CDS

By Cate Long
August 12, 2011

The Wall Street Journal ran an odd article yesterday about the unpredictability of sovereign credit ratings that are below the investment-grade cutoff (BB+ and lower). Check out the table from the IMF of S&P’s sovereign ratings.

Regulator wants to require “fair dealing”

By Cate Long
August 3, 2011

Regulator wants to require fair dealing

In a far-reaching proposal, the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board (MSRB) has asked the Securities and Exchange Commission for permission to impose new rules to protect municipalities. These rules would vastly expand the disclosures that dealer underwriters are required to give their municipal clients who issue bonds.