MuniLand

Real people are connected to every actuarial assumption

Pension reform sounds abstract and distant from everyday life. It is almost entirely confined to state- and local-government workers. Companies stopped giving pensions to their workers decades ago as they switched employees to 401(k)s and other voluntary-type retirement schemes. This removed enormous future liabilities from the balance sheets of companies and shifted the risk of adequate retirement means to individuals.

Public pensions plans are now  squarely in the sights of state legislatures. They are terribly underfunded and have grown unsustainable. Changes, though, must be made within the law. For example, states cannot categorically take away pensions because they are “contracted obligations.” But states can and are chipping around the edges and making changes to things like “cost of living adjustments” (COLA) and the required retirement age.

These legislative modifications are being challenged in courts. This is not surprising since people don’t generally give up their benefits or rights on a voluntary basis. In many cases these pensions are the only thing that retirees will have to fund their retirement. Workers are not winning their court cases, though. The WSJ reports that:

In the Colorado ruling, District Court Judge Robert Hyatt said for decades the state has changed the way it calculates cost-of-living adjustments. “Decades of history and legislative language do not support Plaintiff’s position that they are contractually and constitutionally entitled in perpetuity to the cost of living adjustment in effect at the time of their respective retirements,” the ruling says.

The judge, however, did acknowledge retirees’ contractual rights to their underlying pensions.

Has Chris Christie “fixed” the problem?

Has Chris Christie “fixed” the problem?

Joan Gralla of Reuters reports that Governor Chris Christie will be signing the pension and health-benefit reform law today. This is an important step for the health of New Jersey’s pension plans, and Governor Christie should be lauded for his accomplishment.

The state’s 2010 Debt Report (page 15) said that they have $87.5 billion in unfunded liabilities as of June 30, 2009 and that the rate of increase has gone up substantially in recent years:

    $30.7 billion for the seven major state pension funds $56.7 billion in unfunded post retirement health benefits

Unfortunately Governor Christie has skipped payments of $5.5 billion over the last two years and compounded these unfunded liabilities. One of these skipped payments was used to claim a “balanced budget.” Your household budget is not really “balanced” if you skip your car loan payment for a year.

Greening the city

Greening the city

Many cities took a big step forward for clean air when they adopted buses fueled by natural gas. But there are other important projects that will make getting around easier, quieter and less polluting. New York City is getting ready to take a big step. From American City:

New York City has the potential to take those [bike sharing] concepts and scale them up to a size unseen on this side of the Atlantic. Mayor Michael Bloomberg, a man the transportation community has a complicated relationship with, has been dangling a transformative bike sharing program in front of alternative transportation advocates since 2009 when New York’s city planners issued an “exhaustive proposal” that included a 10,000 strong fleet of safety-equipped, GPS-ready bikes.

Economically, the deal is a victory for innovative financing because it fully absorbs the burden of maintenance, damage, and —as this is a city— theft, vandalism, and “artistic destruction.” New Yorkers would buy their memberships on weekly, monthly, or yearly bases and get an unlimited number of free rides that take less than 30 minutes; ride a little longer, pay a little more. New York has decided that an initial burst of capital will serve their purposes the best not least because of their uniqueness among American cities in terms of density and population.

Save the $100,000 that Meredith Whitney charges for research

Just the numbers please

You can save the $100,000 that Meredith Whitney charges for her research. Reuters has the data on municipal bond issuers with the weakest profiles by bond-market standards. Puerto Rico leads the pack as the least credit-worthy issuer. Issuer Weekly Yearly Outstanding Unfunded S&P Moody's Spread* Average Tax-supported Debt Pension Rating Rating Puerto Rico 225 203.7 $40 bln $24 bln BBB A3 Illinois 174 175.5 $24 bln $62 bln A+ A1 California 95 106.3 $87 bln $50 bln A- A1 Michigan 80 81.2 $7 bln $12 bln AA- Aa2 Nevada 70 68.0 $2 bln $2 bln AA Aa2 New Jersey 65 54.7 $32 bln $37 bln AA- Aa3 D.C. 60 57.3 $6.4 bln $0 A+ Aa2 N.Y. City 47 55.7 $61 bln $76-122 bln AA Aa2 Rhode Isl. 47 45.9 $2 bln $4 bln AA Aa2 Ohio 38 31.9 $11 bln $2.9 bln AA+ Aa1 *In basis points for the week ended June 17, 2011, Sources: Municipal MarketData, Moody's Investors Service, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services, local government budget reports, official statements

The roots of delusion

Small snippet from an excellent piece in the New York Times on the roots of the unfunded pension mess (emphasis mine):

Is the taxpayer backstop the root of pension problems?

Public workers have been protesting against the reduction of their benefits in several states. It got a more than a little testy in Wisconsin this winter, which has led to several recall elections for legislators there.

It is the right of public workers to push back when they believe they have been treated unfairly. But it is also the responsibility of public workers, and especially their union leaders, to help create a realistic, sustainable benefit scheme for themselves. Too often union leaders insisted on more and more benefits and lower contributions while ignoring the damage done to the viability of their pension plans.

Maybe they didn’t worry because they knew that taxpayers would have to make up shortfalls in underfunded pension plans. Maybe the guaranteed taxpayer backup is the root of our fiscal problems. It has placed all the responsibility for fiscal prudence on elected officials who often are easily swayed by well-organized constituent demands.

Muni swaps moving higher

Lisa Pollack of Markit in London sent over some interesting charts of U.S. municipal swaps. I put up this one which shows the market perception that risk is increasing again for some states, particularly Illinois and California. It is important to remember that these markets are thinly traded and that there is a large block of muni CDS written on California that is coming to market from the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.

National Totals of State Tax Revenue, by Type of Tax

The U.S. Census brings us these figures for taxes collected at the state level for 2010. You can see the substantial reliance on individual income and sales taxes (I left off some categories to fit the table in. Click through to the Census document to see more data): Quarter Total tax Individual income Corporate income Property tax State sales tax 2010 4Q $ 177B $ 61B $ 9B $ 4B $ 57B 2010 3Q $ 168B $ 57B $ 7B $ 3B $ 56B 2010 2Q $ 204B $ 72B $ 14B $ 3B $ 54B 2010 1Q $ 163B $ 52B $ 8B $ 8B $ 54B

 

Muni sweeps: Important deals for CA and NJ

New Jersey municipal employees to pay more for benefits

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and the state Democratic leadership have reached agreement on reducing employee benefits:

In the face of heavy opposition from unions, the Democratic leadership of the New Jersey legislature and Gov. Chris Christie reached an agreement on major cuts to public-worker pensions and benefits…

…Democrats worked into Wednesday evening to get union support, offering weaker proposals, to no avail, a person familiar with the negotiations said. Instead, top lawmakers went ahead with a comprehensive bill submitted earlier this week that requires workers to pay more toward their pensions and new hires to work longer to reach retirement age, while eliminating annual cost-of-living increases for current and future retirees, among a slew of other changes.

Muni sweeps: Muniland hits the airwaves

Change can be glacial, but it happens

Bloomberg digs a little deeper into the story of pension-fund woes and finds California municipalities are already adopting changes, with more to come:

In a survey by the League of California Cities, two-thirds of the 296 localities that responded said they’re negotiating changes in their plans. Thirty-eight percent had increased pension payments from current employees, and 20 percent had created a new tier of benefits for future hires.

Some believe the changes at the local level, particularly lower benefits for future workers, don’t go far enough.

Datapooloza

The thing I hear most often about muniland is how murky the market is. It is rather astounding that the municipal market is so little understood given its size and its effects on state and local governments and tax rates. To help shake the market up and create more transparency, I thought it would be helpful to start gathering muniland data sets for people to start playing with. Have at it, friends. Please send over any interesting findings.

Data pools

USA.gov: Statistics at the State and Local Levels

Office of Management and Budget: Historical Tables

Bureau of Economic Analysis: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by State and Metropolitan Area

US Census: Quarterly Summary of State & Local Tax Revenue

US Census: Government Employment & Payroll

Bureau of Labor Statistics: Local Area Unemployment Statistics Map

Bureau of Economic Analysis: Federal Recovery Programs and BEA Statistics

The National Association of State Budget Officers: Spring 2011 Fiscal Survey of States

Wall Street drives a truck through mile-wide hole in the rules

The Wall Street Journal and my fellow Reuters blogger Felix Salmon have both addressed the issue of the Bank of New York Mellon giving off-market or false prices on foreign-exchange trades to one of their clients, namely California pension fund Calpers.

Morally the actions of BONY, if true, are reprehensible. But are they illegal?  Felix describes the specific problem:

BNY Mellon’s clients put in FX orders, the bank executed those orders and reported back a price. Only it lied to its clients about the price it was getting, padding its own profits while so doing. This is doubly evil: not only did the bank lie, but it lied while serving as a fiduciary to its clients, with an affirmative duty to give them “best execution.”

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