There is a time and a place for everything and back in the days of the Obama election campaign the idea that progress on the Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan could help turn around the flagging military campaign in Afghanistan looked plausible. The argument, much touted by Washington think-tankers, was that Pakistan would not turn against Afghan Taliban militants on its western border as long as it believed it might need to use them to counter India’s growing influence in Afghanistan, and as long as it felt the need to keep the bulk of its army on its eastern border with India.

Even in the middle of last year, when Pakistan and India made an ultimately unsuccessful attempt to revive peace talks which had been frozen since the attack on Mumbai at the end of 2008, the possibility of a “grand bargain” from Kashmir to Kabul still carried some resonance.

But time has moved on, so it is a little bit strange to see these arguments resurfacing now after India proposed to resume talks with Pakistan.  (See Newsweek’s “Kashmir is the key to peace in Afghanistan” or the op-ed by David Ignatius in the Washington Post)

As I wrote in this analysis, a thaw in relations between India and Pakistan would be too little, too late to achieve results in time for Washington’s 2011 deadline for drawing down troops in Afghanistan. Real progress on Kashmir would require them to get back to a roadmap for peace sketched out between India and Pakistan in 2007 under former president Pervez Musharraf. But Pakistan, whose vulnerability to attacks by Islamist militants has been demonstrated in a spate of gun and bomb attacks over the past year, probably no longer has the political space to offer the kind of concessions Musharraf made to get there without risking a backlash at home. And while the roadmap provided a framework for further negotiations on Kashmir, a lot of ground had yet to be covered to translate that into a real agreement; even if indeed it would ever have worked.

LONDON (Reuters) – Unthinkable a year ago and still officially beyond the pale, the idea of a political role for Taliban leaders in Afghanistan is creeping onto the agenda as war-weary governments seek to bring an end to an unpopular war.

Some say this could open the door for negotiations if the Taliban think they can secure a better settlement through talks than by waiting for U.S.-led troops to leave and then fighting their way to power through a renewed civil war.

“The Taliban know they can’t take over the country. They would be presiding over a country with persistent and perennial poverty and civil war. So they would like to negotiate,” said one diplomat involved in discussions about Afghanistan.

The United States and its allies have so far spoken only of reconciliation with those Taliban who renounce violence, sever ties with al Qaeda and accept the Afghan constitution.

At last week’s London conference, two of the great truisms of warfare punched their way to the surface. The first is that wars are fought as much on the home front as on the battlefield. With public support for the war in Afghanistan ebbing away, the United States and its allies in NATO have shifted from seeking outright victory to looking for an exit strategy that will allow them to start bringing home their troops next year.  Rather as the British did after their two failed invasions of Afghanistan in the 19th century, they are sending in reinforcements in a display of military might which they hope will secure better terms in an eventual settlement.

The other truism is that if you can’t win outright victory on the battlefield, then you have to negotiate with your enemies. President Hamid Karzai set the ball rolling by announcing he would hold a peace council to which, according to an Afghan government spokesman, the Taliban leadership would be invited.  Karzai has made such suggestions before, and it is by no means clear the Taliban leadership will send representatives. What was different this time, however, was the context.  Karzai’s suggestion no longer met with the same resistance from war-weary governments, who stressed that it was up to the Afghans themselves to lead the process of reconciliation.  He also coupled his call for a peace council with an appeal to Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to bring peace to Afghanistan. Saudi Arabia is a trusted interlocutor between the Afghan government and the Taliban leadership; Pakistan is the only country which still has some measure of leverage over them. Thus Karzai’s call for a loya jirga, though not dramatic in itself, became emblematic of a broader shift towards seeking a political settlement to end the war.

What happens now is so complicated and so delicate, that no one can predict the outcome. Just as western governments have little clear idea about who might buy into a political settlement and on what terms, nor do the insurgents themselves. Contacts with various insurgent groups are expected to follow many  different tracks,  so that everyone — on all sides — is going to be watching what everyone else does to try to maximise their advantage.

The warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, whose men play a powerful role in the insurgency in eastern Afghanistan, has shown some signs of flexibility, according to the Wall Street Journal. In a video leaked to the WSJ, he said that “we have no agreement with the Taliban – not for fighting the war, and not for the peace.”

LONDON (Reuters) – The Afghan government on Thursday invited the Taliban to a peace council as its Western allies worked out plans to try to end the war in Afghanistan.

In an indication of the quickening pace of diplomacy, a U.N. official said members of the Taliban’s leadership council had secretly met the United Nations representative for Afghanistan to discuss the possibility of laying down their arms.

The official, speaking as leaders and ministers from 60 nations convened in London to discuss Afghanistan, told Reuters members of the Taliban’s Quetta Shura had met U.N. Special Representative Kai Eide on January 8 in Dubai.

“They requested a meeting to talk about talks. They want protection, to be able to come out in public. They don’t want to vanish into places like Bagram,” the official said, referring to a detention center at a U.S. military base in Afghanistan.

LONDON, Jan 28 (Reuters) – The Afghan government on Thursday invited the Taliban to a peace council as its Western allies worked out plans to try to end the war in Afghanistan.

In an indication of the quickening pace of diplomacy, a U.N. official said members of the Taliban’s leadership council had secretly met the United Nations representative for Afghanistan to discuss the possibility of laying down their arms.

The offiicial, speaking as leaders and ministers from 60 nations convened in London to discuss Afghanistan, told Reuters members of the Taliban’s Quetta Shura had met U.N. Special Representative Kai Eide on Jan. 8 in Dubai.

“They requested a meeting to talk about talks. They want protection, to be able to come out in public. They don’t want to vanish into places like Bagram,” the official said, referring to a detention centre at a U.S. military base in Afghanistan.

LONDON, Jan 28 (Reuters) – The Afghan government on Thursday invited Taliban insurgents to a peace council of elders as part of efforts to find a way out of a conflict which is trying the patience and resources of Afghanistan’s Western allies. In an indication of the quickening pace of diplomacy, a U.N. official said members of the Taliban’s leadership council had secretly met the United Nations representative for Afghanistan to discuss the possibility of laying down their arms. As leaders and ministers from 60 nations convened in London to discuss Afghanistan, the official told Reuters members of the Taliban’s Quetta Shura had met U.N. Special Representative Kai Eide on Jan. 8 in Dubai. "They requested a meeting to talk about talks. They want protection, to be able to come out in public. They don’t want to vanish into places like Bagram," the official said, referring to a detention centre at a U.S. military base in Afghanistan. The official said it was the first time such talks had taken place with members of the Taliban’s top council, which U.S. officials say is based in the Pakistani city of Quetta. At the London conference, nations agreed that Afghan forces should aim to take the lead role in providing security in a number of provinces by late 2010 or early 2011, opening the road for a reduction in foreign troops. "We must reach out to all of our countrymen, especially our disenchanted brothers, who are not part of al Qaeda, or other terrorist networks, who accept the Afghan constitution," Afghan President Hamid Karzai told the conference. The United States and its allies would not be involved in the council, known as a loya jirga, and have said they want to leave it up to the Afghans to seek reconciliation. At the same time, U.S. President Barack Obama is sending in 30,000 more troops to weaken the insurgency and convince the Taliban to accept a peace deal, which crucially would require them to sever ties with al Qaeda militants. More than 110,000 foreign troops are in Afghanistan, including some 70,000 Americans. "You have to be willing to engage with your enemies if you expect to create a situation that ends an insurgency or so marginalises the remaining insurgents that it doesn’t pose a threat to the stability and security of the people," U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said. British Foreign Secretary David Miliband said $140 million had been pledged towards an international fund to help reintegrate Taliban foot soldiers into society. Japan said it would provide $50 million towards that sum. WAR WEARY The war, originally launched to deny al Qaeda militants a haven under the Taliban after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, has entered its ninth year with public support in the United States and its NATO allies waning as casualties rise. A flawed election, widespread corruption and questions about Karzai’s performance have also fuelled criticism of the mission. With economies still fragile after the financial crisis, governments are keen to find a way to end the war. An Afghan government spokesman said the Taliban would be asked to take part in the loya jirga, expected to be held early this year. "We wish them to come," spokesman Hamid Elmi told Reuters. The Taliban have so far shown no willingness in public to enter talks, though some analysts say they realise they are no better placed than the United States and its allies to win the war by military means alone. "They are tired of fighting. Despite a lot of the bravado they don’t have the capacity to take the country," a UN diplomat said. "So in the long run they need a route out themselves." Western governments have stressed there could be no compromise with those who harboured links with al Qaeda. But the West’s attitude to involving at least some elements of the Afghan Taliban, once demonised over their human rights record and treatment of women before they were ousted by the U.S.-led invasion in 2001, appears to be softening. PROMINENT ROLE FOR SAUDI ARABIA Elaborating on the Dubai meeting, the U.N. official said there had been no follow-up on the talks yet but added: "We’ve had the initial approach and we are hoping that the Afghan government will now follow up and capitalise on it." The Dubai meeting was at a higher level than earlier known talks which took place in Saudi Arabia between former Taliban officials and representatives of the Afghan government in 2008. Karzai also called on Saudi Arabia, which has hosted talks between the Afghan government and Taliban representatives in the past, to help bring peace to Afghanistan. In response, Saudi Arabia said it would take part in peace efforts only if the Taliban denied sanctuary to al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and cut ties with militant networks. Karzai also said Afghanistan needed the support of its neighbours, particularly Pakistan, to secure peace. Washington says Afghan Taliban chief Mullah Muhammed Omar and other leaders are based in Pakistan — a charge Islamabad denies. Pakistan, one of only three countries to recognise the Taliban government before it was overthrown, is seen as well placed to mediate in any talks.

LONDON, Jan 28 (Reuters) – Facing a make-or-break year in Afghanistan, ministers from some 60 countries meet on Thursday to hammer out a strategy to try to bring an end to the war. The London conference is expected to back efforts to win over Taliban foot soldiers with money and jobs, and review a U.N. terrorism blacklist to encourage fighters to change sides. This, combined with a fresh commitment to development and the influx of an extra 30,000 U.S. troops, is meant to break a stalemate in a war now into its ninth year. "We will see at the end of this year the light on the horizon," NATO military chief Admiral Giampaolo Di Paola said after a NATO meeting in Brussels on Wednesday. Western governments are hoping a final military and civilian push will put them into a position of strength to begin drawing down troops in 2011 and to negotiate a political settlement. With public opinion wearying of war, attention is already turning to an eventual exit strategy involving a political settlement with the Taliban leadership — although officials stress that this is not yet on the cards. "We are not going to negotiate with the Taliban now, and if there’s going to be any movement on this issue, the Taliban will have to sever all contact with al Qaeda and this is a critical point," U.S. special envoy Richard Holbrooke said. Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell said that any reconciliation with Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar was "probably a bridge too far" after he gave safe haven to al Qaeda to launch the 9/11 attacks on the United States. "He has the blood of thousands of Americans on his hands," he told reporters in Washington. But with the United States also stressing it will be up to the Afghans to decide how to reconcile their country’s warring factions, many argue that the question of involving Mullah Omar is more a matter of timing than principle. "No plan will work without him," said retired Brigadier Sultan Amir Tarar, a former senior member of Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) agency. "He’s respected by Afghans for resisting foreign occupation. How can he be sidelined or dumped at a time when Taliban are winning the war?" he told Reuters. WAR WEARY Afghan President Hamid Karzai is expected to seek support in London both for a plan to win over foot soldiers — something that has had little success in the past — and to hold a Loya Jirga, a council of elders to discuss broader reconciliation. The Taliban have so far shown no willingness in public to enter peace talks, though some analysts argue they too are tired of the fighting, and realise they are no better placed than the Americans to win power by military means alone. The Taliban, in comments posted on one of their websites on Wednesday, renewed a demand that foreign troops leave Afghanistan and dismissed plans to win over individual fighters as a trick. But they also repeated a statement made by Mullah Omar late last year that they posed no threat to the West — a possible signal of a greater willingness to break with al Qaeda. Britain is also hoping to use the conference to convince regional players to cooperate rather than compete over Afghanistan, the battleground for proxy wars for 30 years. Among those attending are the foreign ministers of India and Pakistan, which have long competed for influence in Afghanistan. (Additional reporting by Sayed Salahuddin in Kabul, David Brunnstrom in Brussels, Paul Eckert and Adam Entous in Washington and Zeeshan Haider in Rawalpindi, editing by David Stamp)

LONDON, Jan 28 (Reuters) – Facing a make-or-break year in Afghanistan, ministers from some 60 countries meet on Thursday to hammer out a strategy to try to bring an end to the war. The London conference is expected to back efforts to win over Taliban foot soldiers with money and jobs, and review a U.N. terrorism blacklist to encourage fighters to change sides. This, combined with a fresh commitment to development and the influx of an extra 30,000 U.S. troops, is meant to break a stalemate in a war now into its ninth year. "We will see at the end of this year the light on the horizon," NATO military chief Admiral Giampaolo Di Paola said after a NATO meeting in Brussels on Wednesday. Western governments are hoping a final military and civilian push will put them into a position of strength to begin drawing down troops in 2011 and to negotiate a political settlement. With public opinion wearying of war, attention is already turning to an eventual exit strategy involving a political settlement with the Taliban leadership — although officials stress that this is not yet on the cards. "We are not going to negotiate with the Taliban now, and if there’s going to be any movement on this issue, the Taliban will have to sever all contact with al Qaeda and this is a critical point," U.S. special envoy Richard Holbrooke said. Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell said that any reconciliation with Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar was "probably a bridge too far" after he gave safe haven to al Qaeda to launch the 9/11 attacks on the United States. "He has the blood of thousands of Americans on his hands," he told reporters in Washington. But with the United States also stressing it will be up to the Afghans to decide how to reconcile their country’s warring factions, many argue that the question of involving Mullah Omar is more a matter of timing than principle. "No plan will work without him," said retired Brigadier Sultan Amir Tarar, a former senior member of Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) agency. "He’s respected by Afghans for resisting foreign occupation. How can he be sidelined or dumped at a time when Taliban are winning the war?" he told Reuters. WAR WEARY Afghan President Hamid Karzai is expected to seek support in London both for a plan to win over foot soldiers — something that has had little success in the past — and to hold a Loya Jirga, a council of elders to discuss broader reconciliation. The Taliban have so far shown no willingness in public to enter peace talks, though some analysts argue they too are tired of the fighting, and realise they are no better placed than the Americans to win power by military means alone. The Taliban, in comments posted on one of their websites on Wednesday, renewed a demand that foreign troops leave Afghanistan and dismissed plans to win over individual fighters as a trick. But they also repeated a statement made by Mullah Omar late last year that they posed no threat to the West — a possible signal of a greater willingness to break with al Qaeda. Britain is also hoping to use the conference to convince regional players to cooperate rather than compete over Afghanistan, the battleground for proxy wars for 30 years. Among those attending are the foreign ministers of India and Pakistan, which have long competed for influence in Afghanistan. (Additional reporting by Sayed Salahuddin in Kabul, David Brunnstrom in Brussels, Paul Eckert and Adam Entous in Washington and Zeeshan Haider in Rawalpindi, editing by David Stamp)

LONDON, Jan 28 (Reuters) – Facing a make-or-break year in Afghanistan, ministers from some 60 countries meet on Thursday to hammer out a strategy to try to bring an end to the war.

The London conference is expected to back efforts to win over Taliban foot soldiers with money and jobs, and review a U.N. terrorism blacklist to encourage fighters to change sides.

This, combined with a fresh commitment to development and the influx of an extra 30,000 U.S. troops, is meant to break a stalemate in a war now into its ninth year.

“We will see at the end of this year the light on the horizon,” NATO military chief Admiral Giampaolo Di Paola said after a NATO meeting in Brussels on Wednesday.

LONDON (Reuters) – A conference on Afghanistan which only a week ago was seen as the political stunt of an enfeebled British government could now mark the beginning of the end of the war in Afghanistan.

The 60-nation meeting in London on Thursday has been preceded by an unexpected groundswell of support, including from top military commanders, for an eventual political settlement with the Taliban.

“There seems to be an emerging consensus that when all is said and done, the Afghan jihadist movement — in one form or another — will be part of the government in Kabul,” U.S. think tank Stratfor said.

The conference is expected to back plans to win over Taliban foot soldiers to weaken the insurgency as Washington sends in an extra 30,000 troops. But the world’s attention has already shifted dramatically toward a potential exit strategy.