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Nov 11, 2014

Forint to slip as mortgage deal frees central bank’s hands

LONDON, Nov 11 (Reuters) – Hungary’s move to resolve the
issue of outstanding foreign currency mortgages has lifted the
forint against the euro but its rise may not last once the
central bank turns its focus back to the economy.

The forint rose on Monday after Hungary’s central bank (NBH)
sold 7.83 billion euros to local banks, initiating a process
that could see most foreign-currency mortgages converted into
forints in the first half of 2015.

Nov 5, 2014

ECB Council rift report rings in lower euro

LONDON, Nov 5 (Reuters) – The idea that European Central
Bank President Mario Draghi’s management style has ruffled
feathers on the 24-member ECB governing council is just another
reason the euro should fall versus the dollar.

Washing dirty central bank laundry in public is relatively
rare. When it comes with the euro zone facing a host of economic
challenges, it can damage confidence in the euro itself.

Nov 3, 2014

Franc may be a sell if Switzerland goes for gold

Neal Kimberley is an FX market analyst for Reuters. The
opinions expressed are his own –

By Neal Kimberley

LONDON, Nov 3 (Reuters ) – Foreign exchange traders who want
to bet on the outside chance that this month’s Swiss referendum
on gold will pass might be best served selling the franc rather
than holding it into the decision.

Oct 14, 2014

Cheaper oil may see euro, yen fall

LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) – Falling oil prices might well
prove negative for the euro and the yen if the foreign exchange
market concludes cheap crude will undermine efforts to fend off
deflation in the euro zone and Japan.

With one facing deflation and one seeking to boost
inflation, they might ordinarily be expected to welcome a lower
oil price, which would lessen costs of production and increase
economic activity.

Oct 8, 2014

Short Swiss francs/long Mexico peso may yield returns

LONDON, Oct 8 (Reuters) – Selling the Swiss franc versus the
Mexican peso may not be an everyday foreign exchange play but
divergent economic outlooks coupled with a positive yield might
make it attractive to some forex traders.

Mexico’s central bank cut interest rates to a record low in
June, but at 3 percent that’s a world away from Switzerland’s
zero rate policy and the possible resort to negative interest
rates alluded to by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) on Sept.
29.

Oct 2, 2014

Japan banks’ dollar demand feeds yen weakness

LONDON, Oct 2 (Reuters) – The yen’s weakness against the
dollar may be extended because of the changing lending profile
at Japan’s major banks. The paucity of returns at home have led
them to increase their offshore loans, and they need dollars.

Declines in the value of the greenback versus the yen may
prove short-lived, albeit uncomfortable for forex traders who
have placed bets the other way.

Sep 2, 2014

A stronger Canadian dollar in the pipeline?

LONDON, September 2 (Reuters)- Over time, the Canadian
dollar might prove to be a winner from the conflict in Ukraine,
which has highlighted the European Union’s reliance on energy
supplies from Russia.

For a graphic of European dependence on gas from Russia: link.reuters.com/nah72w

Aug 29, 2014

Italy: no bella figura without a lower euro

LONDON, Aug 29 (Reuters) – If Italy is ever going to
recapture its glory days, it needs an even weaker euro and,
given its weight in the euro zone, it might just get it.

Forex traders may logically react to the gravity of Italy’s
economic and fiscal plight by selling the euro.

Aug 27, 2014

Weak yen remains Japan’s inflation anchor

LONDON, Aug 27 (Reuters) – Continuing and broad-based yen
weakness would sit comfortably with the objectives outlined by
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda in his speech last week
at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

For a text of Kuroda’s full remarks: here

The BOJ Governor said the mechanism for negotiating wage
increases “stopped working effectively” while Japan battled
deflation over the past two decades. He also said he wants to
“anchor inflation expectations at 2 percent” to act as a
benchmark for wage-setting.

Aug 20, 2014

Hollande thinks the euro’s overvalued, and he should know

LONDON, Aug 20 (Reuters) – French President Francois
Hollande said again on Wednesday that the euro is overvalued
and, looking at the state of the French economy, many might
agree with him.

France, the currency bloc’s second-biggest economy after
Germany, is afflicted by record-high jobless numbers, housing
starts at a 16-year low and waning industrial output.

    • About Neal

      "From 1985-2009, I worked in foreign exchange trading and latterly sales in the City. Since joining Thomsonreuters in Sept 09, I write columns on currency issues for the wire, contribute briefer daily FXComments, co-host the "Dealing Room" chatroom with colleagues across the globe, and appear regularly on FX related Inside shows."
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