Neal's Feed
Mar 26, 2014

High summer in Japan may mean a low yen

LONDON, March 26 (Reuters) – The Japanese yen could be
vulnerable to a renewed emphasis on economic policies by Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe’s government, whose constitutional and
foreign policy objectives have become somewhat bogged down.

The combination of fiscal and mooted structural reforms
allied with supportive monetary policy easing by the Bank of
Japan (BOJ), often collectively called Abenomics, have so far
been a signal success for the Abe government.

Mar 24, 2014

Communications chain points to a higher dollar

LONDON, March 24 (Reuters) – The dollar should be the
ultimate beneficiary of U.S. Federal Reserve chief Janet
Yellen’s disclosure on Wednesday that the Fed may only wait six
months to raise rates once its bond buying programme is over.

Taken in tandem with policy stances in the euro zone and
Japan, the euro and the yen might be the big losers.

Mar 20, 2014

Crimea tensions might deliver weaker yen

LONDON, March 20 (Reuters)- Policymakers struggling to spark
inflation in Japan’s underperforming economy probably didn’t
have Crimea on their list of problems.

But some leading financial figures are raising the idea that
a prolonged crisis in the Ukrainian region annexed by Russia
might counter-intuitively result in a lower oil price that would
produce an unwelcome disinflationary impulse in Japan.

Mar 14, 2014

Turning Japanese? Euro zone exporters must hope not

LONDON, March 14 (Reuters) – Euro zone exporters must be
hoping European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi is
right when he rejects comparisons between the currency bloc and
Japan’s experience of deflation.

Or, just as Japanese exporters discovered for long periods
in the 1990s, today’s euro zone exporters might suffer as a
strengthening local currency eats into their bottom line and
gives their global competitors an edge.

Jan 22, 2014

Horse trading may give the Aussie a lift

LONDON, Jan 22 (Reuters) – The start of the Chinese Lunar
New Year on Jan. 31 may give the Australian dollar a lift
if Chinese investors choose to celebrate the Year of the Horse
by piling into a currency arguably ripe for a rebound.

While such a notion may prompt hoots of derision from
traders in the western hemisphere, the differing qualities of
the 12 years in the Chinese cycle are closely studied by
potential investors in Asia – and this horse has form.

Apr 24, 2013

Column: Canadian dollar may slip on falling oil

LONDON (Reuters)- The Canadian dollar may weaken further against its U.S. counterpart in coming months as Canada’s economic fundamentals and prices of its abundant natural resources become less supportive of the currency.

The arguments for Canadian dollar strength no longer resonate so strongly.

Global demand for Canada’s natural resources has been a key driver of demand for the Canadian dollar, but with even China’s appetite for imported commodities slowing, that pillar of support may be being eroded.

Mar 27, 2013

Japan’s new financial year to bring yen weakness

LONDON (Reuters) – The start of the new Japanese financial year on April 1 may prove the catalyst for a weaker yen against the dollar with a central bank policy meeting and possible capital outflows out of Japan early in the month.

The dollar has risen 15.7 percent against the Japanese currency since October but further yen weakness looks likely.

Feb 13, 2013

Economic malaise leaves India’s rupee vulnerable

LONDON (Reuters) – The Indian rupee may be poised to slide as economic data from Asia’s third-largest economy disappoints and complicates central bank policymaking.

The rupee could easily fall to the 55.38 level against the dollar, last seen on January 8. Beyond that, dollar/rupee levels above 55.50, not seen since November, would beckon if any move gathered pace.

Jan 11, 2013

Why buy euros if the zone isn’t working?

LONDON (Reuters) – Closer consideration of the implications of Thursday’s comments by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi may lead some to question if the euro’s subsequent rally against the dollar is sustainable.

Already there is talk in the foreign exchange market of reasonable sellers of euros against the greenback in both the $1.3290-00 and $1.3320-40 areas.

Nov 9, 2012

Fiscal cliff impact may hobble hedge fund FX flows

LONDON, Nov 9 (Reuters) – Among those peering most anxiously
over the U.S. “fiscal cliff” are arguably hedge fund foreign
exchange sales traders and their banks.

The implications of possible U.S. tax hikes for hedge fund
FX volumes and, by extension, profitability in early 2013 are
not pretty. There are implications for the wider market too.

    • About Neal

      "From 1985-2009, I worked in foreign exchange trading and latterly sales in the City. Since joining Thomsonreuters in Sept 09, I write columns on currency issues for the wire, contribute briefer daily FXComments, co-host the "Dealing Room" chatroom with colleagues across the globe, and appear regularly on FX related Inside shows."
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