Nicholas Wapshott

Does Japan show us the way out of secular stagnation?

By Nicholas Wapshott
December 2, 2013

Is America’s economy adrift in the doldrums? Lawrence Summers, perhaps the nation’s most inventive applied economist, thinks so. Speaking to an IMF forum last month, he described America’s current condition as “secular stagnation” in which we are stuck in a rut of weak demand, low growth, and low employment. This is the “L-shaped” recovery, or — strictly speaking, non-recovery — some warned about after the financial freeze of 2008. It is also sometimes dubbed “the new normal.”

Can Tea Party afford the shutdown cost?

By Nicholas Wapshott
October 23, 2013

Victories come in many sizes. The Battle of the Little Bighorn, for example, at first seemed an overwhelming win for the Sioux. But it soon became clear their success would not last. Who really won the Alamo? The Mexicans? Try telling that to a Texan. So, who won the Battle of the Shutdown 2013? The conventional view is that the Tea Party Republicans were seen off by the congressional leadership in both parties. Having made their protest, disrupted the nation and cost Americans a great deal in anxiety, time and treasure, they lost the battle — but promise to resume the war another day. Perhaps as early as January.

Despite flaws, Summers is the best candidate for Fed chair

By Nicholas Wapshott
July 30, 2013

The two-horse race to replace Ben Bernanke as the Fed chairman appears to have come down to gender. In a letter to the president, about a third of Senate Democrats have made clear they would like Bernanke’s deputy Janet Yellen to replace him, primarily — though they do not openly say it — because she is a woman.

Fed the wrong line

By Nicholas Wapshott
June 28, 2013

In his baccalaureate address at Princeton this year, the Fed chairman Ben Bernanke defined economics as “a highly sophisticated field of thought that is superb at explaining to policymakers precisely why the choices they made in the past were wrong.” He added, “About the future, not so much.” Put another way, economics is a science that can mean what economists want it to mean. As W.C. Fields replied when asked whether poker was a game of chance: “Not the way I play it.”

Bernanke sets major challenges for his successor

By Nicholas Wapshott
June 20, 2013

Now comes the hard part. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s announcement that if the conditions are right he will wean the U.S. economy off quantitative easing within a year has already caused consternation in the stock market. Pumping money into the system by buying back government bonds at the rate of $85 billion a month has lately done little good, which is a persuasive reason to wind it down. But getting from here to there without incident is not going to be easy. It was simpler for Howard Hughes to land his gargantuan super-plane, the Spruce Goose.