D H Pai's Feed
Dec 2, 2012
via Expert Zone

The burden of India’s cash transfer scheme

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The government’s cash transfer scheme (CTS) has been accepted by economists as the most  efficient method of delivering subsidies to the poor. This became possible with the identification of the poor after the introduction of “Aadhaar” or unique identity scheme. The scheme is going to be implemented from the beginning of 2013.

Nov 24, 2012
via Expert Zone

Yet another infructuous parliament session?

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Thomson Reuters)

The last session of parliament was a washout. The present one looks to be no different going by its chaotic start.

Nov 17, 2012
via Expert Zone

The year ahead: expectations and apprehensions

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The economy is presently under stress and there are no indications that recovery is underway in spite of recent reforms announced by the government. India is not alone in under-performance. But it has fared too badly for its own reasons.

Nov 7, 2012
via Expert Zone

Higher growth can help lower deficit

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

India’s bloating budget deficit has been a matter of concern. It means more borrowing by the government which results in overcrowding of the debt market and consequently, a higher rate of interest for the private sector. It also raises the rate on borrowings from abroad due to the downgrading by rating agencies which is bound to follow.

Nov 1, 2012
via Expert Zone

When will the repo rate be reduced?

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

In his policy review on Oct. 30, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor D. Subbarao stuck to his position that money cannot be made cheap when commodities are becoming expensive.

Oct 29, 2012
via Expert Zone

The crippling effect of QE3

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

It was tried twice before and it is being tried once again. Whether quantitative easing (QE3) will increase employment in the United States is questionable. But it will certainly disturb currency exchange rates of emerging market economies with related consequences.

Oct 23, 2012
via Expert Zone

RBI policy: Cut in repo rate imperative

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is fixated on inflation and with that rigid mindset it is difficult to expect any liberalisation of monetary policy. But there are other parameters that have changed. Food inflation was down in September if that is any comfort. More than that, the budget deficit will be reduced with a cut in subsidies on diesel. There are also initiatives being taken on reforms. Obviously, the RBI needs to tune its policy to fit the new situation. If the RBI does change its stance, what instrument is it likely to use?

Oct 15, 2012
via Expert Zone

If the U.S. and EU slide into recession

(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

There are apprehensions that the U.S. and EU could drift into recession again. The economic crisis of 2008 unnerved every country, with growth either turning negative or falling drastically. The recovery from that recession was weak and any relapse could be prolonged.

Oct 8, 2012
via Expert Zone

When will India’s reforms show results?

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

After a long silence the spell has finally been broken. The second phase of reforms in the country has begun with almost the same conviction as the first but under different conditions. The 1991 reforms were under compulsion but the present reforms are voluntary. This is because the last 20 years have been a test to prove to ourselves that reforms help and they have substantially helped to make the country an emerging market economy.

Sep 6, 2012
via Expert Zone

Economic consequences of deadlock in Parliament

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The monsoon session of Parliament has been a washout without any important business being transacted. This has been made out to be a political strategy on the part of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to force early elections. Obviously, the Congress-led coalition is unlikely to oblige. The unintended victim is the economy which has been stopped from getting back to growth.

    • About D H Pai

      "I undertake research on current macroeconomic issues of interest, mainly to industry, as president of RPG Foundation, a private think tank. I have also been bringing out for the past 18 years a monthly publication entitled 'State of Business' for circulation electronically among select contributors."
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