D H Pai's Feed
Mar 11, 2013
via Expert Zone

The stock market’s delayed response to Budget 2013

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Reuters)

Finance Minister P. Chidambaram tried to humour the market in his budget by cutting the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) which had been one of its sore points. But the market was not amused. The Sensex continued to slide, indifferent to the budget which was presented with a lot of expectations.

This appears to be rather strange because the budget was well received by the industry, in spite of the increase in surcharge from 5 to 10 percent. It was possibly the realization that the finance minister lived up to his promise of cutting fiscal deficit to 4.8 percent which created an infectious confidence in growth revival.

Mar 4, 2013
via Expert Zone

Risk factors in Budget 2013

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Reuters)

Finance Minister P. Chidambaram has apparently done the impossible. He has brought down the fiscal deficit in the current year from the budgeted 5.3 percent to 5.2 percent in spite of the fall in revenues. What’s more, the deficit was further slashed to 4.8 percent in the 2013/14 budget. Is that realistic?

Look at the expenditure. In the current year, subsidies on food, petroleum products and fertilizer were up by 676 billion rupees or 36 percent. These are precisely the expenditures the minister had to curtail, though he did make an effort to do that too late in the day. With the jump in non-Plan expenditure, the fiscal deficit could be brought down only by cutting Plan expenditure.

Feb 13, 2013
via Expert Zone

Budget 2013: Need to review tax incentives

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not those of Reuters)

It’s going to be a tight budget this year and Finance Minister P. Chidambaram will be looking to save every rupee in revenue to reduce the budget deficit, to which he has committed. One option would be to withdraw tax incentives which have outlived their purpose.

The finance ministry is only too aware of revenue lost from tax incentives. In 2011/12, it was a loss of 5.29 trillion rupees. If tax incentives are withdrawn, the 2013/14 budget would be in surplus. Nothing would amuse the finance minister more.

Jan 30, 2013
via Expert Zone

Budget 2013 should trim expenditure

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author, and not necessarily of Reuters)

Finance Minister P. Chidambaram is only too aware of the damage done by the last budget and has to an extent repaired it to unleash investment. The next budget should confirm his commitment to growth.

Jan 7, 2013
via Expert Zone

Concerns about current account deficit

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author, and not those of Thomson Reuters)

The current account deficit (CAD) which touched 5.4 percent of the GDP is a matter of deep concern. It is well beyond the 3 percent danger mark which was crossed more than 18 months back and caused the rupee to depreciate.

Dec 24, 2012
via Expert Zone

The wait for the rate cut

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author, and not those of Thomson Reuters)

At its mid-quarter review on Jan. 18, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) did not cut the repo rate and also left the CRR unchanged. But it raised hopes that policy easing can follow in the fourth quarter.

Dec 17, 2012
via Expert Zone

The year the Indian economy stalled

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author, and not those of Thomson Reuters)

The year 2012 has seen the worst an emerging market economy can tolerate. Had the government been a little less reticent and more proactive, growth would not have dropped this low in spite of the economy being mauled by inflation. Other emerging market economies did exactly that.

Dec 2, 2012
via Expert Zone

The burden of India’s cash transfer scheme

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The government’s cash transfer scheme (CTS) has been accepted by economists as the most  efficient method of delivering subsidies to the poor. This became possible with the identification of the poor after the introduction of “Aadhaar” or unique identity scheme. The scheme is going to be implemented from the beginning of 2013.

Nov 24, 2012
via Expert Zone

Yet another infructuous parliament session?

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Thomson Reuters)

The last session of parliament was a washout. The present one looks to be no different going by its chaotic start.

Nov 17, 2012
via Expert Zone

The year ahead: expectations and apprehensions

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The economy is presently under stress and there are no indications that recovery is underway in spite of recent reforms announced by the government. India is not alone in under-performance. But it has fared too badly for its own reasons.

    • About D H Pai

      "I undertake research on current macroeconomic issues of interest, mainly to industry, as president of RPG Foundation, a private think tank. I have also been bringing out for the past 18 years a monthly publication entitled 'State of Business' for circulation electronically among select contributors."
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