As far as a strategy for Afghanistan is concerned, it’s a long shot. Bring peace to India and Pakistan and not only will that stabilise Pakistan but it will also ease tensions in Afghanistan. Indeed it’s such a long shot that it has not been considered as a serious policy option. That was until last month’s bombing of the Indian embassy in Kabul.
A spate of allegations that Pakistan’s powerful spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), was involved in the bombing has forced India-Pakistan rivalry back onto centre-stage. This is not just about India and Pakistan, or so the argument goes. Their rivalry is undermining U.S. efforts to defeat al Qaeda and the Taliban since the ISI is maintaining links with Islamist militants to counter Indian influence in the region. And Pakistan’s denial of involvement in the embassy attack has done little to quell the speculation.
In The Atlantic.com, Robert Kaplan argues that the war in Afghanistan is part of Pakistan’s larger struggle with India. “Afghanistan has been a prize that Pakistan and India have fought over directly and indirectly for decades,” he writes. ”To Pakistan, Afghanistan represents a strategic rear base that would (along with the Islamic nations of ex-Soviet Central Asia) offer a united front against Hindu-dominated India and block its rival’s access to energy-rich regions. Conversely, for India, a friendly Afghanistan would pressure Pakistan on its western border-just as India itself pressures Pakistan on its eastern border-thus dealing Pakistan a strategic defeat.”
His argument is that the ISI will never rest easy as long as it fears that Pakistan is threatened by a hostile Afghanistan on one side and a hostile India on the other. “Unless we address what’s angering the ISI, we won’t be able to stabilize Afghanistan or capture al-Qaeda leaders inside its borders,” he says.
In the Globe and Mail Saeed Shah writes that the ISI was supposed to have severed ties with Islamist militants and the Taliban after 9/11. ”Only it didn’t. The links were loosened, but they remain, for the simple reason these militants are viewed as vital pawns in a bigger game: Keeping Afghanistan unsettled to limit the United States’s - and by extension arch-rival India’s -influence in the region,” he writes. “This is a military doctrine about national survival, not an ideology of religious fanaticism. Civilians are not welcome to meddle with it,” he says.
To understand where these writers are coming from, it’s important to remember that the Pakistan Army — and by extension the ISI — sees itself as the ultimate guarantor of Pakistani survival. And although it has stepped into the background from time to time to allow civilian governments into power, it will never allow Pakistan to become as vulnerable again as it was in 1971 when what were then West and East Pakistan were torn apart with the creation of Bangladesh.
“ISI’s primary duty is defending Pakistan,” writes Eric Margolis in another article which tries to explain the behaviour of the ISI.
The arguments are contentious, not least because Pakistan has repeatedly denied using militant groups as pawns against its much bigger neighbour. India too is extremely touchy about the subject of Afghanistan, arguing that as a regional power it has a legitimate role there that does not deserve to be dragged down to the level of India-Pakistan rivalry. It has also spent years accusing the ISI of fomenting violence, from the Punjab insurgency in the 1980s to the Kashmir revolt in the 1990s, to Afghanistan in the 21st century — charges rebuffed by Pakistan — until the issue has become both impossibly murky and highly emotive.
But just suppose for a moment the arguments were correct. Then would renewed efforts towards peace between India and Pakistan help stabilise Afghanistan? And conversely, what would be the price of their fragile peace process disintegrating?
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Tameem:
India still gets aid from the US and world bank, and India remains an impoverished, rickety country. Please dont get carried away with a few years of economic growth.
- Posted by Aamir Ali[...] Would peace between India and Pakistan help stabilise Afghanistan? by: Myra MacDonald [...]
- Posted by ISI vital for a sovereign Pakistan and to keep RAW in check « Rupee News: Recording History, Narrating Archives, Strategic Vision, Profound Analysis, Unique ideasMr.Idris Shah,
i think you got crazy please look at Indian Economy and look at your country’s financial situation is damn dont go far just week ago your prime ministry were begging US to provide fianancial support for your Economic problems … INDIA: is the 3RD LARGEST ECONOMY IN ASIA your pakistanis have nothing to do just blaming and shit Long Life to Afghan and India Friendship …
- Posted by TameemFirst and foremost Indians, Afghans, Bengalis, and the world at large must reconcile themselves to the existence, independence and territorial integrity and unity of Pakistan.
How can Pakistan be forged to make peace with Indians and Afghans when Indians and Afghans believe that Pakistan should not exist!?
Pakistan as an independent nation state has an unalienable right to defend itself from foreign agression, No violation of Pakiistani sovereignty will be tolerated.
In just 60 years the Pakistani people have built a country which Indians and Afghans with thousands of years of “History” are behind, Economically, Politically, Morally, Socially and Militarily Pakistan outshines all the nations of south Asia.
Best Regards
- Posted by Dr Idris Shah Ebrahimiwell said Moin, I agree. The Isaac & Paul story by Vijay is laughable and complete nonsense.
“After several years of struggle, Isaac educated himself and now has a steady job and a fairly decent reputation in the neighborhood.”
hahaha what a joke, Isaac’s reputation in the neighbourhood? hmmm. Pakistan, Sri Lanka , Bangladesh, Nepal etc. Take any of these countries and India’s reputation is at rock bottom.
- Posted by UMPKAnd what steady job? abject poverty and oppression of dalit hindus at the hands of high caste ones. High inflation, HIV AIDS, rampant corruption. A dozen of insurgencies and seperatist movements.
The world knows the true face of India, it will be exposed further.
This is a commercial neighborhood used by the Pharma industry for centuries. Isaac thinks that he is superior and knows it all and tries to portray half-truths to all.
Isaac comes from a snake charmer’s family and s a bug bully. He has been divorced twice. Actually he just has a diploma from one of the local community collages and harps on his “credentials” all the time. His first wife was sleeping with Paul and he tried to sleep with Pauls, wife. He uses his credentials and some good porn Bolly4wood business to stake a claim on all the neigbors homes. He is known for child abuse and wife beating and has been linked to incest with his daughter. His wife and kids have mnay times taken refuge with the neighbors who are sick and tired of this big bully.
Actually the Cobra business is a highly sophisticated lab and venom extraction business linked to the best Pharma companies in the world with branches all over the planet.
Isaac blames one neighbor for the Cobra business”, one neigbor for the “Viper business” one neighbor for the Pitbull dog business. Issac is known by the local police for his tactics to take over the neigbors enterprises and has already done it six times before.
- Posted by Moin AnsariWhile someone or some group are making loads of money in selling the arsenary to every side, they too will take any step to ensure that conflict continues - otherwise they would be out of business. If none of these countries had any weapons, except for their bare hands, to continue the conflict, it would involve a lot more physical endurance from everyone involved. Such endurance most mentally stable/ not drug induced/ not fundamentalist induced persons don’t have. While there are people in any country who like to fight and kill this will continue. Perhaps these countries just have a few more of these types of people, than most countries - perhaps that is why most countries aren’t at war continuously with each other. Or maybe these countries just realise how wasteful, irrational and destructive war really is to any society. When will people wake up and realise that religion has nothing to do with war, there is nothing ‘holy’ about war, and people who choose to hide behind any religion as an excuse to murder are the unholiest of all.
- Posted by Conscientious ObserverPakistan and its terriost is trying to make bad name of Islam by sending thier terrorist to Afghanistan and India to do suicide attacks Islam is religion of Peace … and Pakistan is Munafiq Country
- Posted by TameemPakistan is Home of Terrorism … US Drones hitting their tarjets is a great Job ….
- Posted by TameemOkay, so let’s say that more problems are created because the Indians are in Afghanistan. Well then, what happened before 9/11? What happened before the Indians had an active presence in Afghanistan? If one cares to remember, Afghanistan was a radical, Islamic state that served as a safe haven for the terrorists who attacked America on 9/11. And guess what? The ISI was both complicit and active in the Talibanization of Afghanistan (whatever their strategic reasons were). Prior to the Indians, you had an active Islamic state that served as a safe haven for terrorists that attacked America on 9/11. Now, you have America, NATO countries, (to a lesser extent) India and other DEMOCRATIC countries in the region lending helping hands to stabilize a new DEMOCRACY. Whatever these democratic countries strategic reasons are, you could very also consider the possibility that this might be a war for DEMOCRACY (of which India is but a small part). Perhaps the esteemed writers of Reuters and other great news organizations would do a better job if they considered, in the future, that DEMOCRACY (and the related concept of FREEDOM) itself was as stake — not just the India-Pakistan rivalry, U.S.-Iran rivalry or the like.
- Posted by AnonymousForFreedomNo, I think Indo-Pak fist-fights are just an addition to the basic problem in Afghanistan: that the Afghans don’t know how to live with each other and are always fighting. Foreigners then take advantage of it.
- Posted by Aamir AliThe question under discussion is : Will the peace between India and Pakistan help stablize Afghanistan?
- Posted by Kabir DasThe answer to this question is clearly in negative because Indo Pak rivalary is not the cause of Afghanistan’s destablized state. The cause of Afghanistan’s destabalized state is obviously American occupation of that country for whatever reason. Once Americans leave Afghanistan will be stabalized Indo Pak rivalary notwithstanding. It is as simple as that !!
this tameem has got all of history wrong the city of lahore goes back many years a city which afghans tried to snatch but the might punjabis broke your back Gujjars rule!!!!
- Posted by BilalI is my great wish that India, Pakistan and Afghanistan should become loving brothers and sisters and tackle the problems of the 21st Century together…
- Posted by diogenesTo Mr. Tameem: In the year 1030, there certainly was a Lahore, a Peshawar and a Delhi.
- Posted by diogenesTo Mr. Tameem and Mr. Ali Shah:
Sorry but you are both incorrect-Alexander defeated the armies in both present-day Afghanistan and present-day Pakistan. But history tells us that the toughest people which he encountered and the ones who put-up the fiercest resistance to his onslaught were the people of the city of Multan - in present-day Pakistan.
Aleaxander married Rukhsana, whose beauty is legendary, and who was from Bactria (greater Afghanistan) and he encouraged his troups to marry local women of the then Persian Empire and the Indian Ghandaran Empire.
- Posted by diogenesThat is why you see some Greek (Unani) features among people in Afghanistan and Northwest Pakistan to this day.
The answer to this question is more complicated than you think. First of all the two are not related. The conflict with India is based on envy. On one side there is India, a vibrant democracy and on the other side is the extremist and military influenced “Islamic Republic” of Pakistan. So, the economic, social and cultural development of India tries to defy everything that the military and the religious fanatics in Pakistan preach against. So, if it’s not Kashmir, it will be something else, but this constant antagonism with India propelled by the Pakistani military and the extremist right keeps them in business and justifies the high military expenditures of a state, which leaves on foreign borrowings and spend very little for the welfare of its citizens.
- Posted by SusanThe conflict with Afghanistan is quite the other thing. This is also orchestrated by the military and the extremists, however, unlike the India war, they don’t have a valid reason to create trouble in Afghanistan, but never the less the Pakistanis have land grab intentions and want to treat Afghanistan like their own back yard, just like they would want to treat Kashmir and just as china would like to have Tibet. The only problem is that Pakistan does not have even a remotely legitimate claim to this region and hence they use their trained military terrorist wing (the ISI) and their terrorist outfits: Taliban, LeT etc to create trouble in Afghanistan.
Mr. Mus you are man!
and for Mr. Tameem,
Afghans are the Heroes…. drug dealer Heroes of the world. I’m fully agree with your comments, throughout the Afghan history (Alexander or whatever) you knows only how to kill & how to fight… and now drugs too.
- Posted by AmirTameem a usuall illiterate opium smoking afghan indus valley is the civilization based along the Indus River not INDO you fool go read a unbiased textbook unlike the ones written by osama bin laden pakistan is home to dentistry chemistry and afghans are home to brutal killers and empires of blood afghanistan has not changed the past 5000 years its still a primitive war obsessed society which is slowly infesting its neighbours in pakistan and iran without pakistan and iran accepting your dirt (refugees) afghanistan would become a massive concentration camp i only hope one day the west sees sense and launches nukes on the drug terror nation Afghanistan
- Posted by BilalHistory of afghanistan shows that the nation will be eternally at war with other civilized lands look at afghan kings who did nothing but invade and loot the subcontinent pakistans 9000 year old history is fat greater than the war ravaged history of Afghanistan mohenjo daro harappa and mehgrah citys of pakistan were the worlds first afghanistan is the cancer of south asia drugs opium terrorism taliban Russia should of ripped ure country aprt when they had the chance silly pakistan helped the dogs of afghanistan now america has a chance please kill of this cancer
- Posted by Bilal