In what is being seen as one of the biggest projections of Indian naval power since India defeated Pakistan in the 1971 war, an Indian warship has sunk a pirate ship in the Gulf of Aden and the Indian navy is now looking at deploying more warships off Somalia.
In the Asia Times, former Indian diplomat M K Bhadrakumar writes of the possibility of a new Great Game unfolding for control of the sea route in the Indian Ocean.
Pakistan has historical reasons to be sensitive about this new development. It lost control of Bangladesh in 1971, in part because the Indian navy was able to prevent it from shipping supplies and men to what was then East Pakistan. And it has traditionally been sensitive whenever India has shown signs of flexing its muscles in the broader region — its anxiety about growing Indian influence in Afghanistan being a case in point.
But this time there seems to have been very little reaction in Pakistan, whose navy is also involved in anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden.
India is looking to play a leading role in bringing together countries from the Indian Ocean region to work together to fight piracy, according to this story in the Times of India, working through the so-called Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS). “The IONS includes countries as diverse as Oman, Mozambique, Yemen and Egypt to Australia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Myanmar,” the newspaper says. “If some countries can provide warships and aircraft, others can chip in with ports and refuelling facilities in the fight against pirates,” it quotes a senior official as saying.
That to me raises an intriguing question. Would Pakistan, which for so long has seen India as a regional bully, now be willing to accept Indian regional leadership in combating problems such as piracy, from which both countries suffer? And what would that mean for future relations between the two countries?
As underlined in this U.S. intelligence study released this week, the global context has changed drastically since the days when Pakistan sought to maintain military parity with India. The National Intelligence Council analysis “Global Trends 2025″ sees China and India joining the United States atop a multipolar world and competing for influence. (see full pdf document here).
Pakistan gets short shrift, presented primarily as a problem rather than the global player it sought to become when it matched India’s nuclear weapons programme with its own. “The future of Pakistan is a wildcard in considering the trajectory of neighbouring Afghanistan,” it says. Then in a rather chilling line introduced without further explanation, it says “if Pakistan is unable to hold together until 2025, a broader coalescence of Pashtun tribes is likely to emerge and act together to erase the Durand Line (dividing Pakistan and Afghanistan), maximising Pashtun space at the expense of Punjabis in Pakistan and Tajiks and others in Afghanistan.”
When intelligence experts in your supposed ally raise questions about whether your country can hold together, maybe falling under the regional leadership of your supposed enemy does not look so bad? But then again, and to return to the “Great Game” unfolding in the Indian Ocean, the intelligence report also examines the risk of a naval arms race unfolding between India and China as both seek to protect vital energy supplies.
Choosing your friends in a multipolar world is going to become increasingly tricky. For Pakistan, it may turn out to be a matter of survival. Which way is it going to turn? Pakistan’s reaction to India’s role in combatting piracy in the Indian Ocean may provide important clues.
(Reuters photo: Turkish frigate escorts ship carrying aid to Somalia/Ho New
Trackback
55 comments so far
Previous | 3 | 2 | 1 | Next
If you have a cancer in any part of the body , what will you do?
- Posted by HindusthanKill/Remove the cancer of course or treat it with toxic medicines.
Thats what we did and will do to the cancer called Pakistan.
To hear some Pakis calling India names is like listening to a bad son calling his mother names.
Keep dreaming Pakis and keep calling us Indians names.
Reality will not change,we have stopped competing with you long ago , you guys dont want to accept that you are a failed country of sore losers, who export your cricketers and your film stars here and secretly drool over our heroines and our wealth.We will take every section of the society in our country forward including Muslims but to expect something like that in your country would be ridiculous.
A country born out of hatred will die also of hatred.
Waiting for that to happen.
Love
from a Hindusthani
I believe Pakistan may have a dim future ahead of it, primarily because of its own misadventures with internal and international terrorism, and educating its rural population with potently hateful and ill islamic madraasa teachings.
But it is necessary for India that Pakistan exists, however thinner than it currently is, to ensure that the tribal warfare does not spread its tentacles into Indian territories. In many ways, Pakistan gives India a softer border, and a cushioning that avoids expenditure of too much time and resources on western defense sectors.
All in all, the greedy Punjabi government of Pakistan is at least a rational agent from the economic perspective!
- Posted by nifty mouse catcherAdnan,
The US government had given Pakistan close to $10BN in 2001 to 2008.US has realised they have created a frankenstein monster that their money has not earned goodwill but illwill from people of Pakistan.Branding Pakistan as a failed state is a gross understatement.It is a failed state.Pakistan was a country which was created out of hate & can never be capable of having friendship with any country.Talking about your punjabi beauties, they resemble elephants you like to look at them but don’t want to own one.
While you are glossing over the fact of nuke weapons, countries are advancing to think of technologies to neutralize radiation effect & also to put a missile shield. Just saying a British professor who said intelligence is innate & unchangeable, i am sure he was referring to Pakis.
For your kind information the uprising in Baluchistan is not a indian making but a punjabi culture perpetuated by your Finance Commission of Pakistan.You need to study how your federal taxes are allocated to provincial government you will then get an idea of Mistrust.
Not saying anything great about India atleast there is institutional government which is well functioning, India did not have the support overtly or covertly of any western countries, yes the only country which stood by this great nation was Russia & that special regard for that wonderful nation is respected by every indian not like the gratitude you show to people in the US who have pumped more than $50BN in their history
Through out your history you bit the hand which extended you the friendship, after vajpayee walked to lahore nawaz invaded kargill, you need to read the history of blair house of how a paki primeminister was humilated coz of your army.Be grateful for people of India after the parliament attack it was US who brokered the peace else we would have marched to your doors.
India had great Primeministers who always thought of country first before religion,in our brief interruption when devagowda was the primeminister it is chronicled that he advised the cabinet secretary not to allow anyone including his relatives & sons to interfere in the progress of India.Get your mind cleaned about radical islam & india hating it will do you lot of good.
- Posted by VijayIndians beat Pakistani’s in, 1 Having more colonial cheap available slave labour for Western Corporations.
2. Making cheap Hollywood Knock off’s and having idiots dance around trees and call it bollywood.
3. Produce Route Learned western colonial monkeys to be trained at any repetitive brainless task there Western masters desire.
4. Desperately seeking respect from there anglo Masters by selling out there culture religion and identity to mindlessly imitate there western masters.
5. India leads in starving undernourished children and recently defeated Ethiopia. While Pakistan, has big Beautiful Punjabi’s who may be illiterate who are still strong and healthy.
India is a disgrace, you make your funds off accepting a colonial coolie statues, and doing cheap indentured servent work, for your white western masters.
- Posted by AdnanSome 8 years ago, in 2000 I was talking to some French guys. They were comparing India and Pakistan. My only reaction was:
- Posted by pk“West/Britons have created barking dogs in the form of Pakistan, because they knew that was the only absolute way to hamper India’s progress growth. And the day Indian leaders start looking beyond this barking dog would be the beginning of Indian ERA.”
I am still not sure that day has come or not, but I am still hopeful and remain hopeful.
nothing is amusing my dear friend. Subversive activities may be but then its a quid pro quo. And yes I am willing to believe that pakistan had reasonably good economy but better than india at no point seriously. just imagine pakistan is not able to kickstart its economy with having lands of punjab huge minerals and natural gas resources, proximity (both physically and politically) to oil producing nations in the world. What else do you need for an economy. The real reason is pakistan always had politicians and leaders who harped at religion and rift between india as a winning strategy in their home ground and this has caused such a resourceful nation to underperform. India hasn’t done well either and had its share of corrupt politicians. The point is will the pakistani awam ever wake up to have an objective relation ship with its neighbor and rise above religious sentiments for their own good. Its time that rather than telling india to learn both nation should learn and keeping the existing realities work towards a better future ….. The amount of military spending that is done in pakistan to be in the race of india is phenomenal and can be used easily for the development of the nation. This will in turn reduce the burden for india too as the relation grows warm. The pakistan is already waking up to the reality and gearing towards growth. It becomes evident from the one news item I came acros today which says akistan will not attack india first with a nuclear weapon. India has long back taken this stance. This small understandings will go a long way in ensuring the progress of the region. Let me assure you if anybody thinks that they can take anyother nation for a toss they are making a gross mistake. So pakisan too as a responsible nation should not neglect the existing realities.
- Posted by ravi kumarHighly amusing,that some of the indians writing on this column have not considered the fact, that until 3-4 years ago PAKISTAN had a way superior economy to india,which was stereotyped as being only home to poor people. For all its troubles & decline,our great nation STILL has a GDP per capita of $2500,as compared with india $2700. PAKISTAN has always had superior economic conditions & standard of living,until its recent problems.
Anyways,my message to indians is that YES,we want peace with you but the problem is that india supports subversive activities in Balochistan,FATA & Karachi. India has armed groups like the BLA & Baitullah Mehsud recently,and was a centre of MQM training for decades.Yes,Pakistan has a role but we should not be expected to be the ONLY country to stop subversive activities.
India has to learn to behave as well…
- Posted by Qasim AwanAs an Indian citizen, I believe the greatest threat to India will be an unstable Pakistan. On the other hand, a stable Pakistan with prospering economy will be not only help its own cause but also create a better environment for trade and peace in the subcontinent. I think India should do all it can to help its neighbor and Pakistan should give up the deep distrust of India it has and look to India to pick itself up. I believe a stable South Asia would be the greatest economic force in the next 50 years. However the operative word is “Stable”.
- Posted by DCLol…Mr. Malik it seems you live in a fairy tale Pakistan. Pakistan a Super power…hahahaha
Kindly see the definition of a nation to be a super power. Till now only the U.S. satisfies all the criterion.
As for being a regional power, well Pakistan has always lived under the shadow of its mother nation (us, India).
Pakistan is on the verge of going bankrupt and has recently accepted IMF aid of 17 or so billion dollars. As for your China and North Korea supported nuclear program, there is nothing to say. A Q Khan showed us enough.
And if you follow international politics and news then you would know, that the authors are actually giving a very realistic and bleak view of the year 2025. It is time India stepped in and managed the situation.
How long will Pakistan try to catch up with India in a race it can hardly win?
Please Mr. Malik, I urge you to discard YOUR wishful thinking rather than tell that to the authors.
- Posted by Susmit KumarIndia needs to provide leadership in the Indian Ocean region as it\’s the dominant power there.
Pak has its own internal demons to deal with and unless they figure their internal strife, there is no way they can become a player externally.
The US 2025 report makes it a distinct possibility of its western borders being redrawn.
India should do all it can to support a stable Pak else the troubles will slowly creep into its own borders.
- Posted by Andy RebeiroMyra MacDonald rightly said.
Its the high time for Pakistan to open its traditionally closed eyes. Rather than becoming a failed state its would be better for her to accept India’s leadership & power.
Mr. Sherdil Malik, come out of darkness
- Posted by Shubhayu DattaPakistan need not look outside itself to find answers to doubts being raised about its survival. Pakistan has to look inside - analyze the reason for its birth, understand the great stuggle for freedom which threw up the seeds of its creation. Is competition the only reason for nationhood. Do we always need to treat neighbours as rivals? Do we need to understand the true tenets of islam ? Why not be partners in growth with your neighbours…
- Posted by RajeshInternationally, Pakistan is recognized as a potential failing state. With its foreign currency reserves in tatters, its unenviable position as the worlds millitant haven, and its lack lustre economy and zero contribution to the world economy puts it squarely opposite to a free, democratic, economic and military rising power India.
With its myriads of problems, Pakistan is circling down the drain, and instead of acting as a thorn in everyone’s side, it should either acknowledge India’s immensely superior position as a global leader and a bastion of freedom and stability in South Asia or join hands with it by junking its outdated and immature “bash india feel good” policy that its been following for decades.
Indians do NOT compete with PAkistan anymore. India’s competing with Winner economies of China and south east asia. Its a certain global leader and it would be in Pakistans best interest to follow in its footsteps or collapse under its own staggering weight
- Posted by AztecThis comment is in reply to the previous.
- Posted by SayokeMy dear friend. We Indians(educated middle class representing appox. 30%) want a strong Pakistan. A weak Pakistan is of no good. It won’t have the backbone to accept any formula for Kashmir resolution, it won’t be able to manage the deteriorating low and order in Pakistan and pose a significant security threat to entire world. Make no mistake, Pakistan, with all its problems, is still one of the most powerful Islamic Nation. As per aggression is concerned, India has better and bigger things to achieve than tinkering with a country 20% of our size.
Friend , we are trying to grow. You play your part in growth of Pakistan. And for Allah’s sake, don’t get cynical.
Yes Mr. Sherdil, I agree with you….it IS wishful thinking - not the experts statement, but your comments. I wish well though, for Pakistan - hope it survives as a good nation.
- Posted by Sher Dimag :)India is definitely trying to be the leader in terms of anti piracy activities. It has only taken an initiative, which no other navy has.
And as far as Pakistan is considered, it has more asking worries inside, than in the Gulf of Aden. A comparison between the two countries’ ambitions would be a joke. US presence in Afghanistan is one of the few reasons why the country is not in more shambles, than it already is.
- Posted by Biswadeep RathPakistan.. A superpower? You are definitely joking. You need to understand that it is now becoming another Afghanistan in the making.
- Posted by srinivasan kWhat Mr Sherdil Malik refers to as a rising super power is a rotten country which has been ruled by military rulers for decades.. it has never been a proper country but a battle ground for mullahs and generals who made billions at the expense of common man by getting commissions from large scale arms dealers.. Ho you can refer it as a superpower.. abhi from training8m australia
- Posted by training8mPakistan leads in only one field : IT, i.e. international terrorism. India has no desire to challenge Pak in that field.
- Posted by Prem PreetamIt is most liklley the authors wishful thinking (desire in their hearts) that Pakistan will not hold togather till 2025. Sadly and irritatinly this argument has been made by ill-wishers of PK since its very birth 61 yrs ago. As far as choosing friends, they have to look into their hearts.
I think the question should be “Would India, which for so long has seen Pakistan as a rising super power from scratches, now be willing to accept Pakistan’s international leadership in combating problems such as piracy,terrorism, etc from which many countries suffer?
- Posted by Sherdil malik