In what is being seen as one of the biggest projections of Indian naval power since India defeated Pakistan in the 1971 war, an Indian warship has sunk a pirate ship in the Gulf of Aden and the Indian navy is now looking at deploying more warships off Somalia.
In the Asia Times, former Indian diplomat M K Bhadrakumar writes of the possibility of a new Great Game unfolding for control of the sea route in the Indian Ocean.
Pakistan has historical reasons to be sensitive about this new development. It lost control of Bangladesh in 1971, in part because the Indian navy was able to prevent it from shipping supplies and men to what was then East Pakistan. And it has traditionally been sensitive whenever India has shown signs of flexing its muscles in the broader region — its anxiety about growing Indian influence in Afghanistan being a case in point.
But this time there seems to have been very little reaction in Pakistan, whose navy is also involved in anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden.
India is looking to play a leading role in bringing together countries from the Indian Ocean region to work together to fight piracy, according to this story in the Times of India, working through the so-called Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS). “The IONS includes countries as diverse as Oman, Mozambique, Yemen and Egypt to Australia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Myanmar,” the newspaper says. “If some countries can provide warships and aircraft, others can chip in with ports and refuelling facilities in the fight against pirates,” it quotes a senior official as saying.
That to me raises an intriguing question. Would Pakistan, which for so long has seen India as a regional bully, now be willing to accept Indian regional leadership in combating problems such as piracy, from which both countries suffer? And what would that mean for future relations between the two countries?
As underlined in this U.S. intelligence study released this week, the global context has changed drastically since the days when Pakistan sought to maintain military parity with India. The National Intelligence Council analysis “Global Trends 2025″ sees China and India joining the United States atop a multipolar world and competing for influence. (see full pdf document here).
Pakistan gets short shrift, presented primarily as a problem rather than the global player it sought to become when it matched India’s nuclear weapons programme with its own. “The future of Pakistan is a wildcard in considering the trajectory of neighbouring Afghanistan,” it says. Then in a rather chilling line introduced without further explanation, it says “if Pakistan is unable to hold together until 2025, a broader coalescence of Pashtun tribes is likely to emerge and act together to erase the Durand Line (dividing Pakistan and Afghanistan), maximising Pashtun space at the expense of Punjabis in Pakistan and Tajiks and others in Afghanistan.”
When intelligence experts in your supposed ally raise questions about whether your country can hold together, maybe falling under the regional leadership of your supposed enemy does not look so bad? But then again, and to return to the “Great Game” unfolding in the Indian Ocean, the intelligence report also examines the risk of a naval arms race unfolding between India and China as both seek to protect vital energy supplies.
Choosing your friends in a multipolar world is going to become increasingly tricky. For Pakistan, it may turn out to be a matter of survival. Which way is it going to turn? Pakistan’s reaction to India’s role in combatting piracy in the Indian Ocean may provide important clues.
(Reuters photo: Turkish frigate escorts ship carrying aid to Somalia/Ho New
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Pakistan is a great nation and there is no need to get carried away Indian Navy playing with poor somali fishermen. Pakistan Navy with its Agosta subs, nuclear capable ballistic missiles, superb Intelligence and an Air force equipped with modern fighter aircrafts and best pilots in the world are capable of posing a serious challenge to India. Onus is on India to remain on friendly terms with Pakistan. Because next Indo-Pak war can easily go nuclear resulting in major destruction.
- Posted by UmairThe west is paying for its own misdeeds, It gave billions of dollars to pakistan & never allowed that country to develop on its own. Having a democracy was also tough for them to negotiate with a independant pakistan, so the military served its purpose. Now they find bogged in a war which has no ends in afghanistan & got a taste of how this money will be used on them.In the whole process people of pakistan continue to suffer caught in the midst of politics,military,foreign intervention & their extremist.As people remain uneducated extremism will breed from afghanistan & pakistan & innocent people who got nothing to do with this politics will keep dying.
- Posted by vijayLet’s face it, Britain did not want to see a large, powerful India in 1947 so helped create an artificial, nuisance state Pakistan to keep India bogged down and then for decades China and USA kept this artificial Islamic state alive to prevent rise of India as a superpower.
- Posted by DeepakReality is there is no comparison between a $1 trillion dollar plus,and growing,superpower of 21st century India (which is also 8 times larger than Pakistan) and Pakistan, a failed, bankrupt state which is just a headache for the world.
In a few years time, when Pakistan breaks up,Lahore, Sindh and Northern territories will revert back to India and remaining areas of present Pakistan will either become Independent countries or become part of Afghanistan.
In the grander scheme of things, Pakistan is of little significance to Indian goals. The country is simply too small. The idea of military parity between the two countries has largely existed only in Pakistani imagination since the humiliation of 1971.
Even the West has recognized that and largely treats Pakistan as a problem and a battleground. Every week we hear something about another American plane or drone bombing villages in Pakistani territory and killing Pakistanis. And what is Pakistan’s reaction? Some muted comment that this will not be allowed to continue anymore. And then it happens again next week and the Pakistani government says the same thing.
How can Pakistan have any dignity and go on like this? The country worships a military that has yet to win a military victory and even managed to get the country cut in two. It falls deeper into Islamic fanaticism in an era when Western powers are determined to exterminate it. It’s economy is horribly weak having had only a few years of solid growth recently, largely thanks to billions in U.S. grants which are now diminishing or coming with more strings attached.
Lately there has been a pattern emerging. India is only interested in buying time and allow its economy to grow. It knows that in the long run, the disparity between the two countries will only grow wider thanks to India’s enormous population and free market reforms. The peace talks, the CBMs, the talk by Obama about finding a solution to Kashmir - it’s all a sham. India just wants to wait and wait and grow into a multi-trillion dollar economy (which it’s well on its way to doing having a 1.2 trillion dollar economy already compared to Pakistan’s $160 billion).
Pakistan is a country that seriously needs to examine itself. It needs to solve its internal problems. Spending so much time and resources trying to annex territory controlled by a country 7 times bigger than itself is foolish. Things will only get worse as the economic and military gap grows.
- Posted by FRKBillal,
Yes there is poverty in India while rubies & diamonds are used to decorate in pakistan or what ?. You are right like fire & water cannot stay together so too are India & Pakistan. We hate you only because you produce militants who like cowards hide their face & throw their bombs.Talking of poverty don’t you feel ashamed of collecting grants worth billions of dollars from Asia to Middle east to US.Don’t you feel ashamed of using bombs against baluchistan who are also south asian muslims.Did you not rejoice murdering 3 Million bangladeshi who were also south asian muslims.
- Posted by vijaywell from reading all the comments made by our hindustani brothers it seems they admire hitler very much well some hindu idols do bare a resemblance to that horrid creature dream on Gandians your gands will still be on fire even if you get your way and destroy pakistan but then again your gandians for that exact reason
- Posted by Bilalthe cancer which is spreading across the south asian region namely hindus and india have corrupted the people of the sane earth with there eternal hatred and jelousy of pakistan they cannot take the fact that hindus got there back sides handed to them in 1947 and thats why there grandparents sit them down in a mandir and teach them traditions such as hatred against another to hindustani dog pakistan war born from passion and courage you only see it as hate because your hindu nation didnt form a vedic slave power out of the muslims in south asia muslims in india are poor and hungry opressed by hindus like the above one a country born out of myths and hindu scriptures will burn and be erased like a old passage from the hindu gita love from Pakistanis
- Posted by BilalBilal Kashmiri ,
You are right nobody wants to touch Pakistan.Which explains why Baluchistan wants to be freed from your clutches, Which explained why Bangladesh freed itself from you. We have a few Mullahs in our country who want to touch pakistan you can make an exception for them, they will be proud to drink the “holy Water” in gwadar.
- Posted by Vijaykeep dreaming gandians you cant come close let alone touch pakistani waters the best you can hope to do is play with dirt poor somalians you both are alike after all when gwadar was being built the hindustanis were crying tears and made a pool or should i say a sea of urine just one little port made indians weep lol pathetic
- Posted by Bilal KashmiriLmao.Indians keep on dreaming.Pakistan has screwed india in 47 when muslims snatched big chunk of Hindustani land in the name of Pakistan an then later on B.Desh.Then in 48 PAKISTAN SNATCHED MORE THAN HALF OF kashmir.Then during Kargil war Paistan again snatched Kargil peaks which Indians took back by begging USA.In 1965 Pakistan defeated enemy 20 times bigger in power.Keep on dreaming.If time comes when Pakistans sovereignity is under threat we will make 80 piece of india as India has got atleast 80 seperatist movements inside it.
- Posted by wildpigeonDr Idris Shah Ebrahim,
If in pakistan they have Dr. like you god helps who are just simple graduate.
“India was defeated by Pakistan in 1948, 1965, 1998/1999 and 2002 ”
!! do schools in pakistan teach history ??
well am sucha fool you will first need schools to teach then think of learning history.
This is what happens when people learn history by mullas in mosques.
Not only pakistan accepted humiliating defeat in all 4 wars with India but hey Do
you know about the 5th Indian war with pakistan ?? which was about to wipe out
Pakistan permanently when your ISI terrorists attacked Indian parliament in new delhi ??
It was your chicken Musharaff who begged India not to start war but pleaded to resolve
issue diplomatically.If pakistan were anytime stong enough to confront atleast a
fraction of Indian forces why would your almighty ISI and military equipped with
all 2nd hand guns fight a proxy war by creating and sending terrorist to other
countries ?? pakistan never had gutts to fight like men.
People like Dr Idris Shah Ebrahim,show the true pakistani mindset.Where a doctor is such a assshhole.
- Posted by replytopakissoon pakistan and afghanistan will merge together as a loose coalition of warring tribes.They do not control land 100 kms from the capital!SWAT valley the militants burnt down 100+ girls schools!
- Posted by shantanu chatterjeeDr Idris Shah Ebrahim,
Where did this Dr. get his info from? Madrassas??? Or some hakim!
I think this is a good example of why the “Educated” screw around the “un-educated” folks in Pakistan! And instead of moving forward. They drag them back 50 yrs.
But “Dogs Bark, but the Caravan(India) moves On”!
- Posted by Jai HindSherdil ka malik aur Gadhe ka dimaag….
- Posted by IndianHJ,
I do agree many of the posts exaggerate the superiority of each nation.Though as an Indian sometimes i am appalled at our own stupidity. Where i see hope for my great country is, there is a deliberate attempt to invest in quality education. We were not fortunate to be endowed with good neighbours & also the grass root politics where corruption thrived. The ascendancy of India from its deep slumber is owed to the pragmatism of our Prime Ministers where God has been really liberal in showering his grace.The other factor for our improvement has been its own people who invest to learn & get informed.
It is naive to beleive that there will be any love for a country which deliberately invests its time,energy,resources to see the bleeding of India through its unabashed support for terrorists.It is foolish to think a nation led by morons can ever articulate a right domestic or international agenda.It is greatness of India that a country 8 times the size of pakistan still has shown extreme restraint despite many provocations.Imagining that if we had been their size & they of our size sends me cold shiver they would have swallowed,ravaged.plundered us. It may not be the people of pakistan whom we question, but their leaders who represent them.Their impotency is palpable in all their promises to international community.
International relations are about perceptions & beleiving otherwise is foolishness.while most society are emerging from dark period of their civilization where religion got distorted & its spirit buthchered. we find islam ruled by a few ugly despots who have given the excuse for other religion to harden themselves.It would be dishonesty both to your intelligence & judgement to live in this false notion that the threat from ahimsa can be greater than the threat from swords talking of religious practices.The danger lying to this planet is radicalization of islam which one day will obliterate this planet & such an act will be fermented, planned executed from the heartland of Pakistan.
- Posted by VijayLot of false information floating around. Indian intelligence doesn’t have capabilities like ISI which was bred and tutored by CIA during Soviet Afgan era. So India helping BLA or FATA or Mehsud is big lie.
If at all those are helped they are helped then it must be USA which wants to keep Pakistan under control.
Well India has money now, and their poverty ratio is better ..and soon it will be a booming economy so it is good for lot of people and Pakistan will soon follow the India’s path else it is doomed.
Friendship with india is must for pakistan and pakistani’s are not from Arab breed but they are Indian breed only …they are not real muslims .. like saudis
Virginia , USA
- Posted by GusChildren squabble, grown-up’s work and progress. And there lies the answer. But really, there is no meaningful large-scale comparison between the two countries. Never was. They were each founded on antithetical principles: one exclusively for a people, the other inclusive of all its peoples and faiths. Pretty obvious which one would progress once it got its act together. Long way to go for both, but each should understand its respective niche and not get too ahead of itself. Indians love premature self-hype, Pakistanis appear to wail about perceived grievances everywhere. Like I said, grow up. But hey, some posters here do appear to live in some sort of dream world!
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/23/world/ asia/23pstan.html?hp=&pagewanted=all
- Posted by HJAdnan , Haider
You just reminded of what the character Sheldon Cooper , in “The big bang theory ” quotes :- “I am listening , amuse me “. Thats all i can reply to you so called comments.
- Posted by MihirSo for the serious part, We do not hate you . We have realised that this obsession with our neighbour is pointless & will keep us grounded in the well. Hence we have decided to move on . We now wanna compete with the West , China . NOw as far your comparison between our GDP & per capita income. I heard that many times over. Figures may be misleading, so try understanding the broader picture. With high tech industry [IT , Aerospace, Automobile, Chip design ] playing greater role in our economy there is simply no way you can justify your comments. LIsten to views of all western leaders about the future if their respective economies & of the world in general . They all talk about the emergence of India , China as a challenge . I can go on & on talking that , but then you are not worth the effort. So again take this as a brotherly advice : No one in INdia cares about “competing” with you , & i beleive you should have the same attitude. Build your own country without trying to hate others. It will only help you !!!!!!!!
The Sea of Pakistan belongs to Pakistan, the nation which it is named after, Pakistan should follows Russia’s lead and plant its flag on the seabed. Not only that it should follow the logically course and invite the Chinese Peoples Liberation Navy to be stationed at Gwadar.
With the addition of the PLA-Navy in the side of Pakistan, India would be swiftly defeated bt the two states in the manner in which India was defeated by Pakistan in 1948, 1965, 1998/1999 and 2002, and the manner in which China defeated India in the Sino Indian war of 1962. Just likes Indias numerous previous defeats at the hands of China and Pakistan, The nuclear card now only raises the stakes for the revanchist Indians.
The question is one of India’s survival: Should India risk another defeat at the hands of a joint China/Pakistan naval armada?
- Posted by Dr Idris Shah EbrahimiWell if Pakistan merge with India then Hindu will disappear, because muslims domination create another Islamic Empire. Yesterday days muslims madrassa terrorist etc etc would become your master again ????…..what you will do when they will treat the cancer in their way?????lolzz
- Posted by HAIDER