China, Pakistan and India

December 13, 2008

 

According to Pakistani newspaper the Daily Times, Pakistan’s decision to crack down on the Jammat-ud-Dawa, the charity linked to the Laskhar-e-Taiba, came as the result of pressure from China. Jammat-ud-Dawa was blacklisted by a UN Security Council committee this week.

The Daily Times noted that earlier attempts to target the Jamaat-ud-Dawa at the Security Council had been vetoed by China. “It is the Chinese “message” that has changed our mind. The Chinese did not veto the banning of Dawa on Wednesday, and they had reportedly told Islamabad as much beforehand, compelling our permanent representative at the UN to assert that Pakistan would accept the ban if it came,” the newspaper said. “One subliminal message was also given to Chief Minister Punjab, Mr Shehbaz Sharif, during his recent visit to China, and the message was that Pakistan had to seek peace with India or face change of policy in Beijing. Once again, it is our friend China whose advice has been well taken…”

This is intriguing, all the more so given how much attention has has been focused on what the United States has been doing to lean on Pakistan to curb militant groups blamed by India for the attacks on Mumbai.  So what has been going on? Has China, with its growing economic power, become a pivotal player in global diplomacy even as the United States continues to hog the limelight?

We’ve always known that China has had a major role in South Asia. But in the past it was a seen as the ultimate all-weather ally of Pakistan, to be used if necessary against India, with which it has vied for influence in Asia and against which it fought a border war in 1962.  Is this call for peace an example of it taking on a U.S.-style role of regional policeman, as I discussed in a post back in June about India, Pakistan and China?

The Times of India quotes Shashi Tharoor as saying that there was a feeling in China that its opposition to India on the issue of terrorism would “no longer be compatible with its being seen as a responsible player in the system”.

The Asia Times Online, in a report datelined Bangalore, put China’s decision to support the crackdown on Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) in a more pragmatic context. “An official in India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), who spoke to Asia Times Online on condition of anonymity, said that in the wake of the international outrage triggered by the Mumbai attacks, the Pakistan government realized that whether or not the UN body designated JuD as terrorist, it would be compelled by the US to act against the group,” it said. “In the circumstances, it felt it would be better to be seen to be acting under UN orders rather than pressure from India or the US. Hence the Pakistan-China decision to go along with the other Security Council members this time,” it quoted the MEA official as saying.

Personally, I don’t really understand what is going on in the India-Pakistan-China equation (largely because I don’t know much about China). So instead, I’ve drawn up a list of questions on which I’d appreciate comments and which I aim to address in subsequent posts:

1) Has China decided that given its growing stake in the global economy, it has a greater interest in encouraging peace between India and Pakistan?

2) Has it become as important, or more important, a player in South Asia than the United States?

3) If it is aiming now to become an even-handed arbiter between India and Pakistan, why are there still so many problems along the Indian-Chinese border?

4) Why, if China was such a reliable friend of Pakistan, did it refuse to bail out its economy and leave the civilian government there with no option but to turn to the IMF?

5) What do we make of the fact that Pakistan Army chief General Ashfaq Kayani made his first visit to China, while President Asif Ali Zardari went to the United States?

6) What is the long-term gameplan? And what does this mean for South Asia and the rest of the world?

Are there other questions out there that need to be asked?

(Pictures: Reuters October file photo of Presidents Hu and Zardari in Beijing/David Gray)

Comments

To answer your question 4):

The new government in Pakistan came to power with American support, and the coup was part of the reason of Pakistani turmoil. China did not want to pay for the American coup, and thought the Americans should pay for it.

Regards,

Posted by Passingby | Report as abusive
 

Please dont bring China into this, they have their country secured by numerous government paid paincloth police and informers inside and in other countries. They dont care anything as long as their interests are safe. It is Pakistan, who is the wolf in sheeps clothing. Their own agency ISI and Army are thinking that they are safe as long as USA needs them against Talibans. But I guess it will be soon be like Iraq, and joint multinational armed invasion headed by India will cleansed of its corrupt generals & ISI.

Posted by Savvy | Report as abusive
 

iN FIRST PLACE, One has to wonder WHY ARE CHINA AND PAKISTAN “FRIENDS”??? Do they share any language, culture, history…anything? the answer is none.

The one and only reason China had a friend in pakistan simply to use it as a tool against India. It has looked the otherway knowing very well Pakistan’s jehadi terror war on India.
China is slowly realizing it is unbecoming of its civilizational status, major economic and global power status to continue this support for Pak sponsored terrorism.

Posted by Victor1971 | Report as abusive
 

China is an aspiring long term player in south asia. It has critical influence with pakistan.
In the case of the ban, i think the anonymous off. view of MEA official is correct. Something was probably going to happen. if not UNSC ban, then perhaps U.S led selective strikes inside pakistan. This is because of the unusual level of condemnation from the U.S, along with the fact that the Pak economy is now really depending on the U.S IMF money.
And beijing might have seen the reports in indian newspapers that it had previously voted to veto the dawa ban, and this would have caused many people to see china as an enemy in india, something it may have wanted to avoid right after the mumbai terror attack – especially with the active and strong U.S support.
So in the final analysis, i think the U.S played a critical role here, and forced China to end up doing what it did.
I dont think china is really interested in peace between pak and india, it would much rather keep the pot boiling.
An alternative view might be that it would like to see peace because that would lessen U.S influence and thereby increase its own. Keep in mind that China has border disputes with India as well, and that Pak. has ceded a chunk of kashmir (Aksai chin) to china that is not recognized by india. So, the Kashmir problem is really a india-pak-china problem. anyways…

Posted by vick | Report as abusive
 

1) Has China decided that given its growing stake in the global economy, it has a greater interest in encouraging peace between India and Pakistan?

I doubt it. China has no interest in peace between India and Pakistan. But it has interest in avoiding a war between the two countries. As long there is tension between India and Pak without a war, China will be happy.

2) Has it become as important, or more important, a player in South Asia than the United States?

Not just in South Asia. More credit balance, more power in times of peace; more military strength more power in war times.

3) If it is aiming now to become an even-handed arbiter between India and Pakistan, why are there still so many problems along the Indian-Chinese border?

It is a myth that any big power will be even-handed. Pretending to be so is a different matter.

4) Why, if China was such a reliable friend of Pakistan, did it refuse to bail out its economy and leave the civilian government there with no option but to turn to the IMF?

Because as long as there are sucker nations in the West China would be foolish to come to the aid of any country.

5) What do we make of the fact that Pakistan Army chief General Ashfaq Kayani made his first visit to China, while President Asif Ali Zardari went to the United States?

That for talks and money nations Third-World countries come to the West (for which they have only disdain and no trust), while for military support they go to China (which they fear and for which they have more respect).

6) What is the long-term gameplan? And what does this mean for South Asia and the rest of the world?

The lomg term gameplan is to replace the U.S. in the world arena.

7. Are there other questions out there that need to be asked?
Not a question but a comment: Contrary to appearances, the peace and security of the US will not be compromised if it leaves Islamic countries and stops being a world policeman. In anything that will be the only way of stopping Islamic terrorism in the West

December 12, 2008

Vernon I

Posted by Vernon Rogers | Report as abusive
 

As far as the Mumbai Carnage is concerned none of the Pakistanis is happy with that;everyone has condemned that heinous crime.Pakistan,already bleeding, has lost much and India has lost a little but gained much.So the eyes should be towards the gainer and not the loser.Just in order to divert the attention of its people from its inefficient security system and to put the Kashmir issue and the Security Council’s Resolution about the right of self-determination of the Kashmiri people India is playing all this nasty stinking drama and getting curbs put on to the Muslim charities which care for the needs of poor.

Posted by Sultan Khan | Report as abusive
 

I believe, a country has two types of interests in affairs of other countries: economic and strategic.

China’s interest in Pakistan is mainly from the point of view of containing India’s influence in the Indian Ocean (the strategic interest). China has established bases near Andaman Nicobar Island (part of territory of India) and is in the process of creating one of the biggest ports for Pakistan. Note that there is no let down in activities on this front: they have been kept low profile. These activities are moving full stream ahead. Relationships with Pakistan will be maintained friendly to serve this strategic intent of China. Pakistan, now economically crippled, will always welcome Chinese ‘investments’; implying that China no longer needs to cajole Pakistan.

Perhaps the most significant shift is coming from the growing influence of China in Africa. If China is able to establish ports in Africa (which it will in no time), it will no longer need the Pakistan base for its blue water dreams.

China never had economic interest in Pakistan beyond that required to fulfill its strategic intent viz-a-viz other world powers. Of late China has been able to gain economic leverage with US, it being the largest creditor of USA. It has got the leverage with USA that it always wished for.

Thus the strategic and economic intent of China are now being easily with diminishing role for Pakistan. In fact association with Pakistan now carries risk of aiding a state that is associated with terrorism, which is bad for the image of China. China also realizes that terrorism is knocking at its door steps as Pakistan is its immediate neighbor. Hence, on matter of terrorism it is more prudent for China to take the stand with rest of the world battling terrorism has taken.

Posted by Vikram Kumar | Report as abusive
 

1. Hidden Dragon, Crouching Tiger. China is buying time, and it has 5,000 years of patience to do it.

2.Dragon Fire. When and if it’s cornered and its national interest at stake, China will, as it has always been, fight with no fear. Remember fighting Japan, Korea, Vietnam, and India, in at order?

3. Kongfu Panda. Ultimately it’s China’s objective. Mild, smiling, kind, innocent, don’t-mess-up-with-me kind of tough guy.

4. Before becoming KP, it has one thing to clean up: Taiwan. China will do it “at any cost.” — Chinese Premier Wen’s exact words.

Posted by Simon | Report as abusive
 

1) Pls stop wishful thinking, politics is never about feeling good and idealologies.
2) What is with the absurdity of this question? Anyone working on logic should take it as a given that a nation residing in Asia, and also being the largest nation in said continent, should always have being be a ‘player’ in his own neighbourhood, no?
3) Because it is in China’s interest also to foster better relations with India, not a very hard conclusion to come to, is it?
4) Who in their right mind would bail out something if prudent economic judgement would say it is not worth bailing? hmmm, don’t answer that question…
5) Why don’t you ask China instead of us, guessing just creates more guessing and all it does is display the stupidity of those who make guesses, or was that your plan from the beginning?
On that note, what is the long-term gameplan of India and Pakistan regarding their houses? better they come up with a gameplan first before we ask for someone else’s gameplan.
But since we are guessing, here’s a guess, how about those muslim separatists in China that we don’t hear about, maybe it also has an interest in controlling muslim extremists because they could affect its own muslim regions too?

Posted by V | Report as abusive
 

an edit to my post above, that point 5) should have being point 6)

my answer to point 5)
- I don’t know, so no answers from me :)

Posted by V | Report as abusive
 

I think China has changed its policy of supporting Pakistan and is more friendly towards India and also submitted to the new world order. Chinese have also started behaving like the white man of Asia. It is just like everybody else in the world. Seems like west would keep occupying asian minds and lands. Controls would be in the hands of western powers.

Posted by Qasim | Report as abusive
 

In fact China is afraid of USA. USA stopped importing goods from China, the main export country. Chinese economy is totally depending on USA. Another important thing is that USA is against the working of Pakistan underground agencies and if China tries to support them USA will go against China seriously. More over Zardari is un-reliable for USA & China.

Posted by Askari Kazmi | Report as abusive
 

China is merely trying to be a friend to all. It is moving toward a more harmonious world rather than a more competitive world, especially in its neck of the woods but really internationally. For the time being, Pakistan is a client state of the US and China wants to limit its involvement there lest it too becomes embroiled in Pakistani politics. Not very complicated really, but the West will try to make a bigger deal of it, conjuring up scenarios to make China look as if it has an ulterior motive for everything and the US as the world’s moral leader. The US goose has been cooking for many years now — and on “high” for the past 8 years — and even a great new president will not be able to undo the damage immediately.

Posted by Alain Rostoker | Report as abusive
 

China not vetoing ban on Jamaat-ud-Dawa this time in UN is remarkably a smart move. In my view China has saved Pakistan from further destruction and witnessing future violence. China has played its card in a very smart way and has hit many targets with only one shot. China has given a strong message to Pakistani establishment to refrain from militancy. The part of Pakistani establishment, that happens to support militancy as the second line of defence, has to rethink its strategic planning while keeping the fresh new world order in their perspective.

Had china vetoed this move once again it would have turned Pakistan as a battle field against China; a similar battle ground as West enjoyed against Russia in Afghanistan. Now, all of a sudden neo-con forces will have to roll out a new plan; however, in my view they don’t have much time to do so and that’s exactly what China has taken into consideration. A right move at the right time!

Additionally, another dimension of current South-Asian situation must be really shocking for the existing world players; that is ‘China rolls out a plan in South Asia’ as a regional power. China telling India and Pakistan what to do in this fragile situation; and surprisingly India and Pakistan not only listening to it, they are acting accordingly too!

India becoming a strategic partner with US is like ‘a dream comes true’ situation and as always Indian establishment wanted to wipe out Pakistan from global map by one way or another and that’s due to the widely accepted ‘Hinduatva / Akahand Baharat ideology’. This time India was really serious to launch an attack on Pakistan and wanted to get started with surgical strikes or hot pursuit thinking they had American back up with them. However, China played one card in UN and all of a sudden it’s a totally new situation for all the players in the region.

China has again proved that China is Pakistan’s all weather alley and has saved Pakistan from Indian aggression, internal turmoil and being an escape goat for NATO failure in Afghanistan. China has taken a step ahead in gaining a hegemonic situation at least in South Asia at the moment, where presently Americans unfortunately have failed.

Pakistan has a great geographical location advantage at its side that means Pakistan is the only corridor for West and US to access Central Asia. However, now it can’t get done with out prior Chinese approval. So I assume its going to be a tit for tat situation between China and West mainly US. For instance, if China feels its supplies form any where in the world are being pressurised by the West, they can always play the Pakistan card.

I think it’s up to Pakistan to play its card right since it’s the moment. If Pakistan puts its weight into American side they have all the chances to create an hegemonic situation, however, if Pakistan puts into Chinese side then China surely wouldn’t need any one else in the region to keep its self in a controlling situation.

Posted by Shahzad | Report as abusive
 

The solution to all such problems is to root-out the behind-the curtain-founders and financial supporters of terrorist groups. Today Pakistan banned Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) the next day it shall operate under another name just under the nose of ISI and with its very own support. Why are we blind to the fact that: it is such units within the very sovereign state the sends terrorist to infiltrate in another sovereign state. If we want peace throughout the world, we should look for the root-causes rather than cleaning the surface of the problem.

Posted by Hanif | Report as abusive
 

The right move at this time for both China and Pakistan. China has guided Pakistan to concentrate their energy for countering hegemonic design of US and India on its west border.

Posted by Hindukush | Report as abusive
 

Terrorist group were supported by USA against Soviet Union and then USA left the region idle,USA is also responsible for these terrorist groups.Regarding the ban on organizations in Pakistan by UN, should someone ask where are UN resolutions for plebicite in Kashmir so that Kashmiris can decide their own fate.Where are UN resolutions for Palestine? Double standards and double faces with dual interests.Who killed Kurkuray who unfolded the hindu terrorists and Indian army who killed many Muslims and blame was put on Pakistan.China has its own interests, and now I do not thinki China will support Pakistan anymore in future as it has big markets in face of India and USA.Also China now does not depend on Pakistan for its diplomatic support.

Posted by Zahoor | Report as abusive
 

China still supports the country of Pakistan but has an interest, as most nations do, to see terrorism vanquished. It wants Pakistan to be ever more forceful in fighting terrorism since, among other reasons, it Xinjang province seeths with Islamic unrest.Yes, it would like to see India and Pakistan at peace to avoid excessive US influence in the region and especially in India.

But China historically is always willing to wait for long periods for an eventual outcome. It sees on the horizon, however distant, the rise of the Muslim world as an international power entity,economically and militarily, and Pakistan a leading power among that group.

Posted by Fluffy II | Report as abusive
 

One answer to all the above questions is China has no permanent friends, but only foes. China and India share a mutual distrust dating back to 1962 when China back-stabbed Jawahar Lal Nehru, the idealist first prime minister of India,and attacked India to cut it down to size. Since then it has always tried to equate Pakistan and India to avoid India emerging as a counter to China itself. The current position of China may be due to two reasons, it believes the public opinion the world over against China about Tibet will manifold if it continue to support Pakistan on the terrorist issue. Secondly, China itself has muslim separatist issues, which it may think, will spread to those regions if unchecked.

Posted by Manu | Report as abusive
 

Shahzad: Good points from the Pakistani perspective. I do not know enough about China either, but simply from my observations of China, here are some points from my Indian perspective:

1) Has China decided that given its growing stake in the global economy, it has a greater interest in encouraging peace between India and Pakistan?

What does such peace give China? As Vernon observed, true peace does not benefit China. China realizes also that there will not be true lasting peace in any case in this region. China is keen to avert war to (a) prevent an inevitable dilemma as to whether to materially support Pakistan in the war and thereby get pulled into the war itself, (b) prevent the disruption of a burgeoning trade with India that is even conservatively estimated during recession times to hit $75 billion by 2010 (Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/View _Point/The_future_of_India-China_trade/a rticleshow/2697720.cms), (c) crack down on the linkages between the Pakistan based terror outfits and the Uighar secessionists that threaten to undo its cities now and not just the beleaguered Xinjiang province, (d) crack down on such terror groups targetting Chinese within Pakistan (as some attacks 2 years ago proved). China may also need India’s help in containing Tibetan secessionists resorting to violence in recent times.

2) Has it become as important, or more important, a player in South Asia than the United States?

I think the importance is based on situations. As long as the US is in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and they are patrolling the Indian Ocean, and in view of their trade with India and China, besides Pakistan, I think the equation is tough to define. China has some cards to play and when it plays them right it gets the upper hand. In this situation, China has few options.

3) If it is aiming now to become an even-handed arbiter between India and Pakistan, why are there still so many problems along the Indian-Chinese border?

China isn’t an even handed arbiter, much less an arbiter at all. The way in which India and China are discussing their problems could be exemplary though. I do not think the Chinese are maturing in their relationship with India, but I think they are realizing that this method is the only one that works now that their own investments in terror are coming home to roost. Chinese are pragmatic, and whatever works wins. Right now power doesn’t flow from the barrel of a gun.

4) Why, if China was such a reliable friend of Pakistan, did it refuse to bail out its economy and leave the civilian government there with no option but to turn to the IMF?

China had to bail out its own economy with over $500 billion. In such a situation I’m not sure if China actually could bail out Pakistan which in any case is struggling with economic misdierction and political uncertainty.

Posted by Vijai | Report as abusive
 

Myra,

Instead of answering specific Question I would dwell on Mindset of Countries in ASIA- INDIA, PAKISTAN, CHINA

INDIA- ON UPWARD TRAJECTORY, ECONOMICALLY, SCIENTIFICALLY AT PRESENT NOT INTERESTED IN PROJECTING IT’S MILITARY MIGHT.

PAKISTAN-IN SEARCH OF WHAT REALLY IT WANTS TO BE-
a) MILITARY STATE
b) MUSLIM JIHADI COUNTRY
c) FUNCTIONING DEMOCRACY
It has tried all these in last 60YEARS but non of It’s internal Players are VISIONARY, Nor are their POPULATION- Which is Spoon Fed Propaganda from all three Players and are totally confused. That’s why all the external player are PRAISED IN MEDIA- Their Survival in Short Term DEPEND ON IMF, They Wish CHINA may BAILOUT PAKISTAN if USA drop them, thus this is FEAR PSYCHOSIS,and based on Past experience the WORDS OF THEIR STATES MEN ARE FAR FROM TRUTH- These are Designed to Appease their FEEDER and should not be taken beyond that.

CHINA- There are Forces in COMMUNIST PARTY who are old timers who are watching world from POWER POLITICS and REFINED MODERN PLAYERS- Both has Their Say how they View Opportunity and How to Make Use of It. Thus there is no LOVE FOR PAKISTAN IN CHINA- THEY ARE JUST SAW OPENING AVAILABLE TO THEM IN PAKISTAN- IF PAKISTAN THINK IT IS BELLWETHER FRIEND THEY ARE NOT GOING TO SAY NO AND EXPOSE THEM SELVES TO PAKISTANI POPULATION WHAT THEIR REAL INTENTIONS ARE.

Posted by Mahendra Patel | Report as abusive
 

Let’s be clear here that pakistan is a “terrorist state” and never have any illusion that it is going to be any different.We have made a grave blunder by suggesting in the international fora that “Pakistan is also a victim of terror.” We should stop interviewing leaders from that country who mouth the same inanities that “you have not produced any proof.”Let us not fall into the trap of providing proof to the culprits. More than 100 acts/attempts of terror recorded in the world since 9/11 have had their roots in Pakistan. More than 40% of the prisoners in Guantanamo are Pakistanis.

We should categorically, unambiguously, unequivocally boycott Pakistan in all aspects for a decade or more. Pakistan is the only territory in the world where an army has a whole country under its control. The state policy of Pakistan is terrorism and their single-point programme of existence is to destroy India.

Posted by robert | Report as abusive
 

The most amusing, funny aspect of Pak jehadi mindset is the belief that this is all about Hindu-Muslim fight!! To feed this delusion they read the likes of Arundhathi Roy and Kuldip Nayyar. !!! Hilarious.
Muslim countries don’t care for Pakistan. China doesn’t care any more. Indian muslims are fed up with Pakistan. Harere is an example, MJ Akbar, noted Indian Muslim writer says “Pakistan will have to pay a heavy price”…:http://www.rediff.com/news/2008/ dec/02mumterror-pakistan-will-have-to-pa y-a-heavy-price.htm.

This is about the fight of secular, multi-religious, multi-ethnic India standing against a “country” founded on hatred, never became a “country” since it is full of Islamic fanatic jehadis. The whole world is realizing this.

 

Mr Robert, who gave the the right to declare a nation terrorist or not i guess your father as a christmas present. Keep your wishful thought, and your bad mouth to yourself. Thanks you and where you from there is surely enough problems.

London bombings those guys were from leeds why didnt you bomb north of england out of sky fools. Told you till you keep a imposing your rules and democracies on others they will never bow down to your double standard values. One set of rules for one and one for another perfect example the Palestine issue.

Regards to pak army well I think it was mr Bush who supported General Musharaf for 8 years. Surely CIA informed bush that he was military dictator but then he was doinf their job so who cares about demopcracy.

When Mr Bhutto was hanged by a miliotary dictator with the backing of the west where was the world. So go tell your bed time stories to someone else.

Pakistan will live, prosper without bowing down to any power. Wake up Mr Robert and another sugesstion get a LIFE!

Posted by Ali786 | Report as abusive
 

There have been 600 acts of suicide bombings, explosions and other terrorists attacks against innocent civilians this year alone in Pakistan. And if you don’t call the horrific bombing of the Marrriot terrorism – I don’t know what is?

Yea, Pakistan has a lot of problems, and yes, there are terrorists within it’s borders. But you are blaming a whole people, a whole nation and that’s not fair.

The government there is trying hard to fight this menace, which affects Pakistan itself, against a lot of difficulties.

It’s the opinions like yours which makes it all the more difficult for them.

Posted by fluffy II | Report as abusive
 

Myra, The average Chinese is a couple of notches more intelligent than the rest of humanity; they are taciturn but very good listeners & are hardly garrulous… but sadly a sly lot…
1) No, rather a truce between India & Pakistan is not in it’s favour as it jeopardizes it’s own ambition of invading & annexing the North-Eastern Indian states, nor does the Indo-Pak squabbling affect it’s Global economic standing, which is far far greater than both these countries put together..
2) No, this was adequately addressed during the Indo-US Civil Nuclear Deal’s NSG clearance, where in the climax, like a serpent, it suddenly raised it’s hood when all other tricks to hamper it failed, only to hastily slither back in it’s pit when the American Eagle swiftly swooped on it…
3) Pakistan is at the most of nuisance value to India, the real enemy behind the screen is China.
4) The Pakistani have the habit of making it a habit, (ask the Americans), Chinese have always extracted many a times more than what they have ever given & they only repay or loan in kind (read only arms) never in cash, then let it be for the rich oil & gas reserves & utilization of the Gwadar Port of Pakistan occupied Baluchistan, or exploiting Sudan’s oilfields with the Sudanese military and the Janjaweed militia, by supplying them arms for the Darfur genocide & on the sly sending it’s own troops in the name of UN to protect it’s interest.
5) Kyani went to kowtow in front of Pakistan’s real Master- China, Zardari was sent on that side of the bread which has butter on it – US, During the Kargil war Musharaf was camping in China, recently, when a few Chinese nationals were massacred by Pakistani militants, the Pak army launched the most brutal crackdown to avenge it & calm down the seething Chinese.
6) Inconceivable, but surely annexations of Taiwan & NE India are the main priorities…

Questions out there that need to be asked?
Why did Pakistan beg of China to save the skin of Hamid Gul in the UNSC? What will be the reaction of the numerous terrorist outfits breeding in Pakistan, knowing well that the Jammat-ud-Dawa / Lashkar-e-Toiba are mere scapegoats, while the real culprit is being left off the hook at their expense?
Would the Chinese ever attempt to retrace their steps & once again walk on the– Eternal Glorious Golden Path of Tao,- or have they forsaken it?

Posted by Anup | Report as abusive
 

I believe China plays a responsible role in its interactions with India and Pakistan. It has been serving, especially as of late, as a soothing hand in trying to calm down the situation on the Subcontinent.
China truly wants Pakistan to eradicate terrorists from its soil. They have done what other powers have not achieved -separated their interest to vanquish terrorism from their strategic interests vis a vis India and Pakistan. In other words, China will oppose terrorism which exists in countries who are either friend or foe.

Posted by fluffy II | Report as abusive
 

Good observation Myra, the next focus of US will be to contain China using India. China is anxious seeing India drifting towards US after every misadventure from Pakistani side (state or stateless). China will try to encourage peace between Pakistan and India to reduce US role in the area.

Posted by Munzir | Report as abusive
 

Myra,

i want to add one more question to the list…..

7) do india and china are having some sort of diplomatic agreement behind the screen?

because india-china relation is slowly but steadily improving. at present chinese army is in india participating in a war game (which includes counter terrorism ) under the name of hand-in-hand excercise.
also i believe that sino-indian border problem is not so important. both the countries use the border problem, tibet as diplomatic leverages.

Posted by unknown indian | Report as abusive
 

1) Has China decided that given its growing stake in the global economy, it has a greater interest in encouraging peace between India and Pakistan?

China is surely interested in peace between India & Pakistan. China realizes that it has to confront a major refugee problem in case a war breaks out with both indians & pakistanis knocking on its door.It would be disasterous for them economically also.

2) Has it become as important, or more important, a player in South Asia than the United States?

No culturally both India & Pakistan like to be serfs to the US than to chinese. It may sound slightly odd for a Indian to be slaves to chinese.

3) If it is aiming now to become an even-handed arbiter between India and Pakistan, why are there still so many problems along the Indian-Chinese border?

China never bothers about India,they can occupy at will the NE borders anytime they choose.Like India’s humilating defeat in 1962, Indian leaders may in private try to hand over the lands to chinese if chinese learn to grease the palms of Indian politician.China knows in next 50 years they have to occupy entire india,so it is currently not in their interest to allow islamization of india. They want both India & Pakistan to be weaker. Right now china knows in case of a war they have to financially support pakistan & their money will never be paid back so why entangle themselves into a mess.

4) Why, if China was such a reliable friend of Pakistan, did it refuse to bail out its economy and leave the civilian government there with no option but to turn to the IMF?

Pakis can call chinese as their friends, but it is china which needs to decide who they want to be friends with. IN politics it is said it is better to choose a wise enemy than a foolish friends.

5) What do we make of the fact that Pakistan Army chief General Ashfaq Kayani made his first visit to China, while President Asif Ali Zardari went to the United States

The general may wanted to know if his chinese weapons will work in a real battle or may be to buy more chinese toys on deferred credit.Asif zardari is a non player,so he has been sent to USA who is another non player in next few years.

Long term game plan of china is to make sure every country in Asia is acquired by them or under their suzernity.They realize they have to become global cops.
1. US will be consumed in civil racial strife for next 10 years.With a 13 trillion debt of US it cannot influence anyone.
2. The deep recession in India, Japan, Korea means chinese have a stake in making these economy tick & acting as global arbitrator.
3. They know only islamic ressurgence is a threat for them, quicker you weed that out so much secure is their country.Terror attacks in shanghai or beijing may be a possibility launched by alqaeda where they may see more foreign bloods available easily.Alqaeda after this attack may unite the whole islamic world, Also history books tells us chinese empire were defeated in samarkhand by islamic forces.
4.Europe led by russia,germany,france may pose a serious threat to China if civil war takes place in the US.

Like Austrian emeperor assasination which led to 1st world war, the mumbai attack may turn out to be a clash of civilzation.We need to wait for next salvo from pakistan & taliban they hold the key to determine the outcome of history.

Posted by vijay | Report as abusive
 

Myra,

I find the triangular dance between the US, China and India worth watching in the coming years; most of which will be played out in South and Central Asia. I see Pakistan being used as a pawn by the big powers in the region.

China is a pivotal player in Asia. China already sees itself as a super-power and its economic muscle offers strategic maneuverability enjoyed by no other state. I think China will silently continue to wield its strategic influence in the Asia-Pacific region; undermining and/or augmenting the US depending on the situation.

India is a large country however, strategically less significant. India may have good trade relations with China however it will continue to counter China in strategic spheres. India will not, to the chagrin of the US, play the “ring of democracies” card against China. In the coming years, India will have to walk a tight rope in balancing the relations with the US and China; case in point India could not have won the UNSC ban on Jamaat-ud-dawa had the US or China vetoed it.

Pakistan, by its nature, will go at any lengths not to be seen as geo-strategically useless. Because of its geographical location, Pakistan will continue to be a “rent” state; someone who charges a heavy price – cash, aid, weapons etc – for its location in the sub-continent. Pakistan will continue to hedge its bets by happily being a pawn of the US and/or China.

Posted by Nikhil | Report as abusive
 

Nikhil,

Come on nikhil, i have never seen a far more illiterate comment here. The congress party of India has few buffons who are so old & corrupt, do you expect them to think strategically for Indians.Nothing is more disgusting of their corruption where a bullet proof vest can be penetrated,nothing is more appaling than their leadership in weeding out 10 terrorist.The bleeding of India is very palpable when i see infiltration of bangladeshi,there is massive corruption from the cpm parties.I see a big international conspiracy that bribing is taking place by chinese govt to select congress & CPM leadership.So that india cannot have a strong federal government,there will always be hung parliament.Unless US realizes that if they do not fix congress or cpm leadership this country would turn out to be a very massive headache for them in the future perhaps some time now.Do you know our history where jai singh was a traitor,so can someone confidently say congress or cpm leadership are not in payroll of chinese or USA.One can speculate that the nuclear deal by US was opposed by CPM on chinese government insistence also.The public is in the dark about all these nefarious designs happening in India & Pakistan behind the scene.I think CPM may gang up with the chinese government & seek something grander in west bengal & north eastern areas also.I think every thing happening around India & Pakistan is full of Anti National sentiments aided & abetted by corrupt leaders in both the countries with help of international countries.Wake up indians your congress party & cpm are competing to sell india to the highest bidder.

Posted by Vijay | Report as abusive
 

Vijay,

Regarding India, in my view, I have painted a fairly conservative picture. Because of the rot in the political class and the bureaucracy, India continues to be strategically far less significant than it should be.

Posted by Nikhil | Report as abusive
 

this is an example of prefect circle. first it was an american and european century and now its clear asian century. any nation which has hold over asia is poised to become a global superpower in coming years.
china is clearly in lead closely followed by india(japan is in severe recession and has old age population).
india in terms of infracture, technology, finance is nearing china. indias gdp is also pegged to touch 10-12% in coming decade. all this will help india to overtake china which america wants(america is opposed to communist ideolgy which is base of china).
with above reasons why would china like to have peaceful india. it is also in proxy war withindia with help of pakistan so that india could not prosper economically and it would help china to maintain lead… hence china is battling for indian borders on north side with pakistan on east side bangladesh on west side . this all make india a highly instable nation and fIIs will take view of this and hence invest in china…ists that simple

 

Nikhil
I, personally find your observations of the prevailing scenario quiet educative, albeit, debatable…’the chagrin? of the US…’ why not ? – ‘case in point India could not have won the UNSC ban on Jamaat-ud-dawa had the US ‘’or China vetoed it’’.’ – had China a choice? India would have loved it if the Chinese had not vetoed it…

Posted by Anup | Report as abusive
 

Anup,

The relations between the US, India and China are very subtle. From strategic standpoint, India will never take a stand that will openly pit it against either the US or China. (That does not mean India will be anyone’s pawn because it is too big)

The US is India’s ally while China is India’s collaborator as well as competitor. Indian relations with China are important because China is not only its big trading partner but also has a veto power in the UNSC. This is why India recently denied to form the ‘club of democracies’ which could be perceived as a challenge to communist China.

In the past, India had twice before moved the resolution in the UNSC to ban Jamaat-ud-dawa. On both occassions, China was the ‘only’ spolier among the permanent members of the UNSC. This time however, China along with others, turned around to vote to ban the Jammat.

Posted by Nikhil | Report as abusive
 

No Indian Government will ever give up one inch of Ksahmir as there are 150 million muslims in India> Their security cannot be jeopardised. Kashmir has other nationalties besides muslims. Pakistan is the instigator in creating the issue of Kashmir. Pakistan was not created through democratic election but by the British at the so called leaders of Muslims. China and Pakistan illegaly occupy parts of Kashmir. China has no credibilty as Tibet was occupied by them through unlawful invasion.Tibetans have nothing in common with the Chinese except Buddhist religion and physical features.It is in the interest of Pakistan to give up occupied Kashmir to India. Thereafter enter into common market with India and other neighbouring countries for trade and free movement of labour.

 

The UN and its member countries have a moral obligation to disarm and disintegrate Pakistan, because it has plunged into a lawless terrorist state and always will be, with guaranteed certainty, with its nuclear arnsenal in the control of those who train and support terrorists, which makes the trainers “master” terrorists. The terrible experiment called Pakistan is a disaster and an utter failure and any notion that it is a country or a democracy are mere delusions.

The world is getting to be too late to realize that the “Master” Terrorists are already in the possession of nukes. For the safety and sanctity of humankind, there is a moral duty for the powers of the world to act decively and quickly to disarm this failed nuclear state.

This failed states’ leaders, population and military and ISI have shown again to be enemies of reason, logic, civility and territorial lines of other countries.

Pakistan has become a septic, rotting corpse, which is going to eventually make the entire world sick and unsafe. It therefore prudent for the UN member nations to act quickly to disarm and disintegrate it, unless and act of God gives a reason to do otherwise.

Posted by Prevent Greatest Disaster of All | Report as abusive
 

Its all happened at a very bad time, its happened at a time when there was so much affection and communication growing between the two countries. Its happened after 6 years of peace process and people to people contacts. I think whan the heat of it dies we’ll realise that we’ve made a lot of progress in these six years and all of it should not be reversed. Pakistan must show its intent of bringing the people who did this to justice and India must give Pakistan the space to do it without putting a gun on its head.

Posted by Deepan | Report as abusive
 

Pakistan is on a collision course with the rest of the world, in its present state.

Allah wiil side with those humans who are pure and good of heart. Allah is already abandoning Pakistan, unless it has an awakening and mends its ways.

Ishallah India.

Posted by Kaffir | Report as abusive
 

China and India has a major presence in the World and Asia, therefore I think both the nations will not do anything hasty that spoils their reputation in the World.
There are recent developments happening that are favoring both India and China, we are having many Import/Export businesses and the economy is interdependent, also to mention that China and India are also having the Military exchange programs.
As far the Pakistan is concerned, we do not have anything to speak except the Terrorism, low economy, foreign reserve less than $3bn. The nation is under suicide.
Pray to Allah to save this nation.

Posted by Blogger | Report as abusive
 

Blogger is an Indian idiot always trying to imply that Pakistan is irrelevant and comparing India to powers like China
Does India have the capacity to organize a global event like Olympics the way China did successfully this year in August? NO. India cant even protect hotels in their own country how could they have ever handled thousands of athletes from around the world. India is strategically less important than Pakistan. Pakistan and China are the rising stars of Asia. India is already being held accountable for its human rights record in Kashmir by the international community.

Posted by Umair | Report as abusive
 

India has hoisted Asian Games, and your nation does not have a capacity to do that. Dont ever dream of it.
When you talk about our hotel what about your Marriot? please think.
As far China and Olympics are concerned thanks to them their steel imported was heavy out exports boosted. And the darker side their people were fighting hunger during Olympics.
Starts rises only @ night my dear, watching Stars at the day is called Day Dreaming.
India glowing and glows and that’s the fact. Please don’t compare your small nation to India, your nation is limited to one of our state / province.

Posted by Blogger | Report as abusive
 

I recommend those who are dreaming for Pakistan destruction – should consult a good Psychiatrist because thier mental stability is greatly in disorder.

- idiots oh sorry indians says thier country is super power — i wonder how come – if they can’t stop assault on thier country then how can they survive war on pakistan. Yes they are super liar and super in off-loading thier faults and failure on Dawood Ibrahim – who is infact an indian, Pakistan – which was created only because of hindus inhuman behaviour with muslims (have you never heared of genocide of muslims while migrating to pakistan), and Al-Qaida and Kashmiri militants — I wonder if indians could give any single true evidence to support thier lies.

indian lies can be evidence from the fact that in all the initial photos of the person arrested and accused of being one of the terrorist in mumbai attack was wearing orange/red thread band on his right wrist (which is the symbol of hinduism, however, now those photos are digitally modified to remove that band —- what do you say about it.

I do not understand why we link one’s act to the whole of his/her nation or religion. we have seen jewish cruelty in palestine, indians brutality in occupied Kashmir, gujrat, mumbai, tamil nadu and many other massacre, and others in iraq, afghanistan, but none was linked to chritians, hindus, jewish etc, then why ISLAM, which is the religion of peace and not only for humans but to everybody and everything in this whole universe, i wish i could get a real answer.

Posted by Peace | Report as abusive
 

My humble opinion on all your questions -

1. China is intelligent to understand that “fight” is not the good gameplan this time but the economic growth makes people, nations, socities as better. Pakistan is diminishing. China knows that Pakistan will fade away soon. And so China has started distancing itself from Pakistan.
2.Same as above.
3. There ARE no problems between China and India at present IN public opinion. Both the countries are intelligent enough to bury the past and move forward and not behave like Pakistan on Kashmir issue.
4.China is no more a friend of Pakistan to support it for growth like providing money to grow. Yes it may provide grenades to Pakistanis to use against India and thus harming Pakistan itslef in the long run.
5.You should make out the following – For any one big enough to have high chair in Pakistan, China and/or US is too important to ignore AND the only hope for Pakistan AND the only nations who at least do not say no to visitng Pakistani heads. Which other good and sane nation will move forward to friendhsip to a dying state!
6.Whatever the long term gameplan is, it is too late for Pakistan to have any part in it. Economic growth is the new mantra all over the world! Many states inclusing Pakistan are dumb enough to not to understand this, not to accept this and keep harping the same old tune of Jehad! May God give you peace!!

Keep praing to the Almighty till He allows you to do so!

Posted by MK Mishra | Report as abusive
 

Peace, be upon you….
“I do not understand why we link one’s act to the whole of his/her nation or religion. we have seen jewish cruelty in palestine, indians brutality in occupied Kashmir, gujrat, mumbai, tamil nadu and many other massacre, and others in iraq, afghanistan, but none was linked to chritians, hindus, jewish etc, then why ISLAM, which is the religion of peace and not only for humans but to everybody and everything in this whole universe, i wish i could get a real answer.”
Categorically….
a) All the nations and religions you mentioned are terrorized by ISLAM Fundamentalists.
b) All the places you mentioned were occupied illegally by these terrorized ISLAM Fundamentalists.

Religion is like a law imposed on their people not to deviate themselves from their boundaries, and to abide these rules. Anyone who goes anti will be outcasted from their religion.
In this sense, Jews, Christians, Hindus have their own laws of religion, and they follow them at any cost, however Islam also has their own laws and they too follow them sincerely, but these fundamentalists of all religion are trying to make a parallel religion by propagating false interpretation of all the scriptures and verses.
Some people will easily fall prey for such fundamentalists, and some don’t. Those who don’t will be killed in the name of Kafirs of the religion.

If you are a muslim, then I would also like to ask you Why did Middle east haven’t spoke a single word on all these happenings?
Why the Middle east always keep other Islams away from them?
They fund these terrorists / fundamentalists to propagate false Islam and stay safe.
Take an example:
There are no blasts / terrorist activities in Dubai why?
There are numerous blasts / terrorist activities in India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkey, Kazakhstan why?

Posted by Sam | Report as abusive
 

Sam, I really like your comments – but that does not mean that i agree that Islam is about terrorism, fighting and brutality – If we have such incidents in our countries that we should not be asking that why this didn’t happen in Dubai etc. Have u ever travelled to Dubai, it is safe, peaceful and well controlled, nobody can dare to challenge that however, in our country from almost everybody from peon to top leader is corrupt and that is why we have to look up to see Dubai, Canada, etc. We have been living peacefully till 1802 then there was seed of racisim and we are still burning in that. – I think we should forget past and build future together.

Peace is the only solution if we want to grow and stay ahead.

Posted by Peace | Report as abusive
 

Peace,
Yes to these fundamentalists the peace cannot be explained in words for they dont have mind to understand and think on what we are telling. Therefore the piece is the resolution for these fundamentalists.
We all deserve peace, think about this.. why would US, NATO, allied forces of the World fighting some others War spending more and more money despite whole worlds economies are downtrodden. Therefore it is not the Army or Military to take action, it is us the people have to take action, Militants are few and People are more.
So I feel if all the people throughout the World speak same language as ‘Anti-Terrorism’, ‘Anti-Islam Fundamentalists’ and start to stone them as demon, peace will prevail.

Posted by Sam | Report as abusive
 

Pakistan would like to believe that it can be equated to India India, while India is fast equiping itself to be a world player in various fields. India has proved its scientific ability by launching sattelites while all that Pakistan has managed is to regularly launch some some missiles based on borrowed technology. All its energies are spent on persuing weapons and sabotage. The problem for Pakistan is that most of the people have been indoctrinated on such destructive ideology that the space for sane thinking has shrunk. Blind hatred to India has meant that they have failed to notice that in India we have 2 to 3 muslims in our national cricket team. The great architect of India’s missile program was also a muslim. While events like Gujarat have happened largely because of the negative role played by Pakistan in craeting a mindset among some muslims in India that there exists a an Islamic nation beyond the present national boudaries. India too had to suffer a humiliating defeat in 1962 to China but India has moved and India would like to prove that its people are capable of matching any other country in impoving the quality of life of its citizens and that of the rest of the world and not waste its energy on destabilisation.

Posted by Harry | Report as abusive
 

Both india and pakistan have comitted mistk at some time or other.If we want to live happily we must cooperate with each other.One may believe it or not but kasab’s father,the terrorist who was arrested in mumbai attacks has admitted that kasab is his son.Indian govt. has failed too in securing it’s territory.So,pak should ban terrorists organisations and arrest them.India should strengthen it’s security and should wait and watch for sometime.

Posted by calm | Report as abusive
 

1. It is in China’s interest if Pakistan pursues a course of terrorism in India.
2. China is gaining in South Asia. It does not want credit at this moment.
3. China arbites to its own benefit only. It keeps India and Pakistan on their toes.
4. China is for Chinese interests.
5. Kayani visited China to pay his respects. Zardari had only heard of Sarah Palin.
6. ? Obama will tell us?

 

as i answer the questions, keep in mind that china’s government tries to be rational and pragmatic. therefore, everything it does is for its own national interest. THey dont always succeed because they are only human, but, unlike many other world players, they DO try.
so here are my humble answers

1- china probly has decided that it IS in fact in its own greater interest to promote peace, even if it only to enhances china’s image of global responsibility

2- if china is not mroe important than the USA, then china is one of the major runner ups.

3- China is not trying to be an “even handed arbiter”. china is only trying to act in its own interest. also, as a few posters pointed out, the border disputes between china and india are being played down by both china and india, because both are economic minded and dont want to make such a big deal out of it.

4- china is not an “all weather friend” of pakistan, china acts in its own self interest. china doesnt want to risk losing money for a failed state as pakistan. china can already get all it wants out of pakistan anyways. no need to risk all that money.

5- he prolly just wanted to try and keep ties warm between pakistan and china. same reason the pak president was visiting america.

6- china will continue to act in its own rational self interest. in doing so, china will release statements calling for both sides to calm down, or for both sides to have talks, or some other generic, neutral, un-inflamatory sounding stuff.

are there other questions to be asked?
yes
try this one:
what are china’s current interests in pakistan? what will china’s interests in pakistan be in the future? what interests does china have in india?

the answers to those three questions will be the most insightful regarding china’s policy towards the reigion of south asia.

Posted by questionist | Report as abusive
 

i forgot to say something in my last post

“It is in China’s interest if Pakistan pursues a course of terrorism in India.”
-posted by yudhvir singh chaudhary

i think this comment was posted in a spirit of anger and cynicisim but still, it brings up a good point.

china and india are rivals. they both are rising fast, both are competing for power, both have rapidly growing economies that will compete with each other. the are neighbors, so they will naturally have more to fight over. thus, a weaker india means a more comparatively powerful china.

i doubt china is involved in the terrorism in india, or anywhere. with all those muslims in xinjiang, any funding could easily backfire. plus i doubt chinese intelligence is powerful enough, stealthy enough, sophisticated enough, to fund muslim organizations without having the plot discoverd rather soon. china is not going to risk its whole international image by funding a few terrorists so they could strike a few petty blow against india. theyve got better ways to try and limit indian power, and they also have better, more pressing and domestic issues to contend with.

even so, the fact remains that china and india are strategic rivals. its not a zero sum game between them, but they do stand in each others way.

discussions for another time…

Posted by questionist | Report as abusive
 

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