History never repeats itself exactly, but it does leave signposts. So with India and Pakistan settling into a familiar pattern of accusation and counter-claim following the Mumbai attacks, it’s worth remembering what happened after the December 2001 assault on India’s parliament brought the two countries to the brink of war. Or more to the point — thinking about the less remembered follow-up attack on an Indian army camp in Kaluchak in Jammu and Kashmir in May 2002 that nearly propelled India over the edge.
Following the attack on parliament that India blamed on the Laskhar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, both Pakistan-based militant groups, India mobilised its troops all along the border, prompting a similar mobilisation on the Pakistani side. Then Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf went on national television in January to promise to crack down on Islamist groups; the activities of Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed were curbed, and tensions abated somewhat.
These tensions exploded again in May when gunmen launched a “fedayeen” attack on a camp for army families in Kaluchak, killing 34 people. (For an Indian version of the Kaluchak attack written at the time, this piece by B. Raman is worth reading.) The Kaluchak attack so outraged India, and particularly the Indian Army, that it came perilously close to war with Pakistan. The crisis was averted after intensive American diplomacy.
So where does that leave us now in the current uneasy no-war, no-peace environment? Or in other words, is there a risk of another attack, another Kaluchak?
If, as some analysts believe, the objective of the Mumbai attacks was to trigger a new military stand-off between India and Pakistan to draw Pakistani troops away from the border with Afghanistan and reduce pressure on al Qaeda and the Taliban, then they failed. Does that mean more gunmen will be assigned to launch a new attack and complete the task? Or will the governments of India and Pakistan, remembering what happened last time around, find a way to insulate themselves from such a risk?
Three weeks after the Mumbai attacks, the signs are not looking promising. Pakistan’s new civilian government, which in the immediate aftermath of the attacks, was ready to send the head of its powerful spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), to India to cooperate in the investigation, has been retreating steadily from that position ever since. President Asif Ali Zardari told the BBC this week that there was still no evidence to support Indian claims that the attacks originated in training camps in Pakistan.
Pakistan has cracked down on the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and outlawed the Jamaat-ud-Dawa, a charity linked to the LeT. But India remains sceptical about how effective this will be. (Pakistan journalist Syed Saleem Shahzad has an interesting take on the history of the LeT in the Asia Times, in which he says the group might be banned but not bowed.) In the meantime, Pakistan has backed away from earlier reports that the head of Jaish-e-Mohammed, Maulana Masood Azhar, had been detained, with Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi now saying that Pakistan does not know where he is.
Pakistan in turn has accused Indian jets of violating its airspace and summoned a senior Indian diplomat in Islamabad to protest. India has denied the accusations of airspace violations, which depending on which side of the border you sit on, could either be seen as a deliberate attempt by India to put pressure on Pakistan, or an attempt by Pakistan to paint itself as the victim of Indian aggression.
So what happens now? India has said it does not want to go to war over the Mumbai attacks, but nor does it want to pursue a peace process that would make the Congress-led government look weak ahead of a national election due by May next year. That potentially leaves the region sitting on a tinderbox for months. And very vulnerable to any fresh attempt to stir trouble between India and Pakistan.
(Reuters photo: Pakistan Rangers close the gate on a crossing point at the Line of Control in Kashmir after it was opened briefly for trade/Amit Gupta)
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All my indian friends and media indulged in war frenzy should take sense-pills and go through the following
http://pakalert.wordpress.com/2009/01/02 /analysis-nuclear-armageddon-in-south-a sia/
For God-sake live and let live with peace and prosperity.
- Posted by ShayanI am an Indian and 100% agree with SAM wording…we are losers….due to our country dirty politics. Reality is this that we do not have enough dare to do any thing…thanks to our Indian Politicians.
- Posted by ManasWOW… u guys adeel and Peace.. have a lot of misunderstandings in ur head.. we’ll let them continue.. you talk of Kashmir.. the things happening and forgot who is making them happen..they have suffered of terrorism more than anything. They have suffered from Jihadi’s who have slipped into our borders. Kashmiri’s till now were never allowed to vote thanks to the terrorists from Pakistani Soil… This time the list of voters were all time high.. can anyone guess why or atleast can understand why (maybe u ppl have dropped ur brains on the road to terrorism, pls pick it up!) Kashmiris were never allowed to vote on itself, they were always bullied int0 anti- rallies… for everything there are some people who are Indians only to speak (I think they are maggots working for Pakistan). We do not think that we have a superior airforce.. We have it.. kargil was a good examle if you ppl forgot and even that you people lost!! If you boast so much about your soverinity, why has US attacked some areas in Pakistan without your puppet governments permission. Why were there no strikes on US.. got scared i guess!! you people say very easily war… dont you know what will happen to Pakistan even if there is a very small scale war.. do u think Pakistan’s Economy will be able to survive that effort?? We are atleast in a position to go to a war and guys please stop saying Nuclear Armed so many times, it looks like you monkeys have been given a cocunut shell to play with. Who talks about UN resolutions, will the real Pakistan please stand up?? They have always defied UN in everything.. They have still not taken proper measures against terror organization banned by UN.. Read Laskar and many others.. they continue to thrive.
Bangladesh happened and we supported it cause we did not want a second terrorist breeding country.. we already have a very nast one!
Adeel, you are right about srategy you need to surrender some times. but dont you know you surrender only when u lose a war!! Pakistan did not have any other front. your srategy was right about that cause you got Lahore back.. otherwise Pakistan would have been part of India again!!
Peace, you will never understand History and why ywe are called by three names.. that is partly to the almost non-existent history of Pakistan. Only 60 years.. I will not argue cause i am sure that you cannot think. Pick it up!
Adeel, Now, u said that our 120 commandos could not control 5 guys.. and u seemed happy about it. They were Pakistanis… This is how people of Pakistan think.. they have been thinking like that.. they take fun out of such incidents.. and you say you are a peace loving nation!!! This again proves your Double talk.. it is not good enough to talk to people who are talking with two faces, one to show the world and one to talk in thier sad, anti-democratic and terrorist country.. you giuys have got a label of Terror, even now your govt says word but will never do it.. we saw so many promises so many affirmations and so many supportive statement from Pakistan sayin they will do what is best for PEACE.. in the region but what happened was 26/11. See the damning politics you people have.. see the kind of learders who double speak each day and night..
Keep feeling good to know that you have Nuclear Weapons, boast it around, like I said a coconut shell and think only you have it!! You people will never be able to think.. only badger… learn to think and become civilized..
- Posted by Samthis article is especially for Sam. you are talking about our army the Pakistani army. let me tell one thing when there is a war you have to surrender at some places as well its a part of strategy but i think you should better read some history. Even Nepolean surrender on many fronts get some knowledge first then speak. and one thing more in 1965 indians started war against Pakistan and the indian war plans were sold to Pakistn by the Indian brigadeir and that is a shame. shame on indians and shame on you know the facts the speak.
- Posted by adeelthese Indians think they have a superior airforce . i ask them what kind of an airforce do they have with 200 planes crashing within a year . i think if this is the state of your airforce then you should reconsider war with Pakistan and we guys are just waitng for an attack you idiots.you were crying for help when we took over Kargil. these indin idiots thibk they canjust walk in through our land and can go back when ever they like. you fools open your eyes you are messing up with a nuclear armed nations and messing up with forces that are considered best in the world. and this time too what you will do we know better bring your forces to the border and then will move back. why dont you just attack cowards. your 120 commandos couldnt control 5 guys how will you blaoody fight with entire pakistani nation .
- Posted by adeelDid i said indians are idiot in my last blog or you have identified you real name.You guys are only good in words.
Now you country leader says “War is not an issue” - what a U-turn, indians are coward, its proven - true statistics - check out the number of casualty in 1999 event - who went to US to lick Bush boots - in 1965 war who was pushed back from PAKISTAN (Rawalpindi and Lahore) - Why india supported separation of Pakistan into Bangladesh.
india was then afraid of PAKISTAN and india is still afraid of PAKISTAN.
One advice, stop watching TV and look for real stuff and stop saying spoon feeded words and speak of truth only - which will be very difficult for you because your whole nation is based on lies — you dont even call you country with one name - as needed you call it india, you call it Hindustan, you call it Bharat — what is the real name of your country — FOOLS PARADISE.
- Posted by PeaceSam you are ignorantly mistaken to say that whatever happening in “Kashmir Occupied by India” is India’s internal matter. Just wake up and try to read a little bit about international politics and History. Kashmir for your info has never been a part of India. We don’t claim Kashmir as our part but consider it as an independant peace of land,ought to be governed by the pplz living there, the Kashmiris. Need I remind you again the UN resolution passed in this connection but being criminally ignored to be implemented by the so-called secularly demoractic India and your lords in the west. Don’t forget that your founding fathers lead by Mr. Nehru themselves took up the issue with UN and UN passed unanimously the resolution which called for a plebsite to decide the fate of Kashmiris as per their determination. Kashmiris are struggling for their freedom, have sacrificed thier lives and honours for the just cause. We have been and will continue to be extending our moral support to these innocent kashmiris.
- Posted by Advisor On PeaceSecondly India should take sense pills in the vast interest of the global peace. We can’t and shall not allow india to maintain its hegemony following the footsteps of her lord in the west. Paksitan is an independant and sovereign country, well equipped and have got the guts to retaliate and cause unimaginable damage to any aggressive adventurism aimed at violating our territorial integrity. just drop the idea of carrying out surgical strikes at our soil and let not it be happened ever that we retaliate with massive strikes hard enough to kick your mother india’s ass out of this globe.
Peace, it is really sad to hear that you say we are shouting, the country of Pakistan was formed by people who were shouting for freedom, they who took the freedom and formed a state of terrorism and such and look at her economy( nowhere near prosperous as has been mentioned), funded by US and still a mess! what has been written is not fiction but reality, the things which has not been talked especially by Pakistanis (Read Double Talk). This is to tell you that Pakistan is know for its shifting statements, demonstarted again recently after 26/11. History has repeated itself over and over again, Pakistan will never answer to the point just double talk, making the dialouge like a diatribe. We have asked for dismantaling the terrorist infrastructure and Pakistan takes it as a threat, is it so that Pakistan cannot do it( Peace can you comment?)? We have seen many generals in Pakistan, Kayani is just another one. he might slap the claim sitting in Pakistan, we will see if he will be able to when a real war happens. Peace and watch you foul mouth which calls us Idiots, we are the ones who gave you a piece of land and the money to call it Pakistan, never forget that.
- Posted by SamBy shouting, screaming and writing big blogs the indian fiction will not become reality - idiots wake up.
Pakistan is a land of great people have courage and dare - while indians have only big mouth which smells a lot
Pakistan Army Chief General Kayani slap indians tall claim to destroy Pakistan.
Long live and prosperous Pakistan
- Posted by PeaceLet Pakistanis not speak about what is happening in Kashmir, they are meddling into their neighbours buisness just for benifitting their Country!! Kashmir as everyone knows is the heaven on earth, Pakistanis want to use it to further their economy as they have nothn else they can do. The Nuclear weapons they have as many have spoken about are imported from China. Did everyone forget China here???? people might ask me why China.. and the answer is plain simple.. to control the region. Again Pakistan was targeted as being a agricultural society, they need water and the source is in Kashmir, then why have they so many jihadi organization? Do you know that muslims who went to Pakistan from India at the time of partition are called?? Kafirs.. I guess everyone here knows the meaning. Do they think that we do not know how they treat muslims themselves. On top of this they say that they feel the pain of Kashmiris!! Can there be more to the two sided face Paskistan has??? Talking about military action, they should not be so overconfident on their army which surrenedered in a war waged by Pakistan!!!
They wanted to attack India and what happened was that they got kicked hard on the back. We Indian have had enough of a double speaking neighbour. India only wants the Pakistani Govt to shut the terror camps in PoK and dismantel the cheap organizatin which on the name of intelligence wage a proxy war. Another point worth mentioning is the terror in Pakistan, do you really think that it is not your fault. The organizations like Laskar and mujhaideen have been breeded by ISI, which lost control. Now you see that was a insect breeded by ISI which is now stinging thier arse!!! whatever said and done … beware if you wanna mess with India, India might just smudge Pakistan if these kinds of coward wars are waged by Pakistan on India.. we are losing our patience and it will not be long…
- Posted by SamPakistan is a failed state.It was created for the muslims to live by islam but it the last 60 years it has failed. The country has tried everything from dictatorship to secular capitalism and they have all failed the people of pakistan. Now its time for change, a new leadership.A leadership based on ISLAM and not the western Puppets.Pakistan needs to look after its own interest.It needs to become less dependent on other nations.It needs to stop fighting america’s war on terror.It needs to close the supply route from the karachi ports to afganistan. It needs to stop supplying fuel to the nato forces. It needs to develop and encourage industralisation so it becomes less dependent on the agricultural sector. It needs to reduce imports and try and increase exports. it needs to support local industries. The companies that are being privatised are taking the wealth out of the country. Oil gas electricity these are public comodities and should be state owned and the wealth used to improve infrastructure,hospitals, education etc.We need the khilafah state to be implemented to bring back justice to the lands of this ummah insha;lah and we should all strive for this change because its a matter of life or death
- Posted by Ibrar Hussain