And now the strategic encirclement of Pakistan

January 15, 2009

An Indian military presence in Afghanistan to put further pressure on Pakistan? That would be the red  rag for Pakistan, and the end of its long struggle to seek strategic depth  in Afghanistan against its much larger eastern neighbour.

Indian newspapers have reported army chief General Deepak Kapoor as saying at a news conference that such a move would squeeze Pakistan, although he seemed to be at considerable pains to stress this  was a decision that India’s politicians had to take.

Kapoor said New Delhi’s efforts in Afghanistan, which themselves have aroused suspicion in Islamabad, were confined to reconstruction so far. It was up to the Indian government to decide whether the option to “strategically squeeze” Pakistan from both sides by placing a division or so of Indian soldiers in Afghanistan should be considered.

“We are only assisting Afghanistan in its reconstruction efforts at present. The political leadership will have to take a decision if something more is required,” the general said, according to the Times of  India.

The Hindustan Times quoted him thus: “Changing our strategic policy towards Kabul in terms of raising military stakes is one of the factors that is to be determined politically.” 

Kapoor’s remarks, however carefully phrased, are unlikely to go unnoticed in the strategic establishments. Is it feasible or is this a part of a tense psychological battle that New Delhi has mounted against Pakistan following the Mumbai attacks?

You could argue several reasons why an Indian military presence in Afghanistan is most unlikely beginning from the fact this further complicates a messy battlefield where America is doing all it can to get everyone, but especially the Pakistanis, to focus on the hunt for al Qaeda and the Taliban. Then, how do you justify sending troops to another country, even if it is Afghanistan? Would they be part of the U.S.-led coalition or would they operate independently? Is it even feasible from a military point of view?

Perhaps the idea is to force Pakistan to blink by threatening to squeeze it militarily, on top of a diplomatic encirclement as pointed out in a previous post on this blog.

On Thursday, Pakistan said security forces had closed five training camps run by Lashkar-e-Taiba, the group blamed for the Mumbai attack, and arrested 124 of its leaders and those of a related charity. So it doesn’t look like the heat is off, even if there is considerably less talk of conflict

[Reuters pictures of the Taj hotel, Mumbai and an Afghan woman with her son on a Kabul street]

Comments

Umair wrote:
Pakistan is and will be a force to be reckoned with. You are simply unaware of ISI’s capabilities and sphere of influence. Pakistani weapons are lethal and capable of unleashing serious damage to India.
You have got to be kidding, where do you get your information from, oh i forgot you get it from Pakistani press, what a joke. Have you seen pictures of Pakistan military capability? How old are your tanks, how many aircraft do you fly, how many of your troops have matching uniforms? You send 50,000 troops to the western boarders to control, what, a bunch of your own citizens who biggest weapon is a AK-47, how fierce is your army? What world do you live in? Your capabilities are to send a bunch of drugged up kids to shoot women and children and think you are great warriors, your army has no tradition, no honor and no guts only big talk about how great you are. Look at how silly you look when Saudi tells you to shape up and do something about the Mumbai attacks, see how quickly you jump.

Posted by Chuck | Report as abusive
 

MJ Akbar (Editor, Deccan Chronicle) writes: Times of India Jan 14, 2009
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Opini on/Columnists/MJ_Akbar/Blood_does_not_sl eep_stays_awake_as_nightmare/articleshow   /3961870.cms

POOR governance has created a knowledge deficit; and knowledge is the key to strength. An Arab friend sent me some startling statistics; the email was captioned ‘A time for introspection’. Here are just a few: there are only 500 odd universities in the Muslim world. The United States has 5,758 and India has nearly 8,500. Literacy in the developed world is 90% against 40% in the Muslim world. If you removed Turkey from the list, the comparison would look grimmer. High tech goods and services constitute only 0.9% of the exports from Pakistan, and 0.3% from Algeria. They add up to 68% of Singapore’s exports.

Azad DP: What did Pakistan contribute in its 60 yrs of miserable existence.Please ask Mr Akbar and other Indian Muslims to enlighten you. Wake up.

 

All this talk about India deploying its troops in Afghanistan is absolutely ridiculous for the following reasons:

1) Even if Indian forces are deployed there, it would be more of a strategic military base, similar to the Farkhor Air Base of the Indian Air Force in Tajikistan.

2) India, unfortunately, does not enjoy the geographic isolation which USA has. If it wages a direct war against Taliban, the Islamic jihadists will hit India hard and would further complicate the ongoing crisis.

3) Indian Muslims definitely would show their displeasure to any such military engagement in Afghanistan. And do not forget the Indian communist parties.

4) Fighting a war away from home is a huge drain on resources and given the present economic scenario, that would be the last option.

Pakistanis should themselves realize the threat which these Islamic extremists pose to their country. And the more they cooperate with India, the better it is for them.

Having said that, the only way Taliban, including their militant associates like Laskhar, can pose a serious challenge to India is either through guerrilla warfare or through terrorist attacks. They neither have the guts nor the resources to fight Indians face-to-face.

Posted by Deepak | Report as abusive
 

On the contrary.

It is very amusing to see Pakis worried about how bad it would be for India to get more involved in Afghanistan. Pakistan has not responded to rational arguments, diplomatic coercion to stop terrorism. You don’t even to send thousands of troops to Afghanistan, imagine setting up just an airforce base in Afghanistan.

As I said earlier, this is not war mongering. India would rather spend money on economic development, but we have to deal with Pakistan. Peace is not a unilateral option.

Even Taliban terrorists have enormous support amongst Pakistani population. It is no use saying they don’t enjoy majority support since the army, political parties which support them are very powerful.

It is wishful thinking on the part of Indians to expect Post-Mumbai anti-India terrorists will lose popularity , and official support in Pakistan.

We never learn. We have consitently underestimated Pakistan’s capacity for suicidal, self-destructive behavior.

 

Ali,
I thought you would start behaving. But, NO WAY. How can you let that happen. Let me remind you again: Mind your language.

Posted by Nick | Report as abusive
 

To read more about the developments in Pakistan and the region in general go to http://www.real-politique.blogspot.com

 

Nadim
‘Silly me I read all the comments above by so called pakistani and indian teenagers.’ & then you say—‘Destabilised Pakistan is not a good sign for India or for the entire world.’

—-How Silly of you…

Posted by Anup | Report as abusive
 

Anitha
‘as other NATO countries will not allow their forces to fight a country.’

—The NATO countries are as it is going to leave the USA high & dry very soon, that’s where we come in, & it’s better we fight the Pakistani’s on the Eastern side (either with USA or Russia at our side) than from our borders…
‘remember any country in general can make hundreds of reasons to-do what they want to do..’

—Exactly! So today or tomorrow China will do what it wants to do-& it’s better than in the intervening period we carve out strategic alliances instead of Ostrich like wait for enemy to attack at their opportune time…

Posted by Anup | Report as abusive
 

Umair
—“I Agree with Anitha and disagree with Anup.”

—-THANKS A LOT for the complement….lol it seems the very idea is sending chills down the spines of Pakistani’s…

Posted by Anup | Report as abusive
 

1) History shows that it is psyche of Pashtuns that they see foriegn troops as occupation forces and give a fierce resistance whatever the intentions of the troops may be. Even it is very difficult for Pakistan to keep troops in the tribal areas within Pakistani border.

2)India voted aginst Iran’s nuclear program in security council and is unwilling to contribute in the gaspipeline consortium under US pressure. There are no permanent foes or friends in foriegn relations. So expecting Iran to side with India in a conflict with Pakistan is incorrect.

3) Afganistan with Pakistan is an energy and trade corridor to Central Asian states. Its a new great game going on to control this area. India already sees it as a big power but should analyze carefully that getting into Afghan mess will have a spillover effect to its own borders.

4) China has interest to access to Gawader port. Whoever controlling the Pakistani Taliban is very wisely using them to advance in Swat and control Karakoram higway. Once the Taliban are there in area of Kohistan then China is effectively blocked there. There has been an increasing number of killing and kidnapping of Chinese worker for the last few years in Pakistan.

5)Russia would like to get the extremism to be defeated in Afghanistan but at the same time they would like the conflict to carry on indefinitely so an energy route to the south out of there control can not be established.

6)With so many players and strange bedfellows with conflicting interests will only destabilize the area and will bring pain and agony to the whole region.

Posted by Julius | Report as abusive
 

Deepak
A tactical Army base is precisely our desire, certainly India is not hankering to battle the Pashtuns, on the contrary, the Punjabi Taliban….
By shifting the battlefield from our precincts to the Eastern borders, we give ourselves not only geographical but also strategic advantage which we critically require against the Pakistani Armed force … Jihad has already been declared on India, what more are we waiting for???—the current Taliban is poles apart from the contemporary Pashtuni Taliban that fought the Russians– it’s an extended arm of the ISI- The PanjabiTaliban don’t let yourselves be deceived by the Americans & the Paki Army (some terror war games they play, sic)

Posted by Anup | Report as abusive
 

Deepak

–If as you say, then Self-centered interests of Indian Muslims & the communists must not determine the course of our countries future …period.
Desist from giving unsolicited counseling to the Paki’s
They have forced this war on us, the response should be more than befitting & with longlasting results, the LET etc. are sponsored by saudi’s & arab nations- underestimating your enemy is unwise…

Posted by Anup | Report as abusive
 

@Anup, please correct yourself Taliban (Pashtun) never fought Russians. In fact Taliban is a post Russia occupation phenomenon.

Posted by Julius | Report as abusive
 

Any Indian force in Afghanistan will have to be at least 75,000 in size in order to present any sort of threat to Pakistan. The presence of such a force also gives Pakistan a justifiable reason to support insurgent groups in Afghanistan.

Hence I talking about such a scenario is a waste of time.

 

Not that I dont want India to have a strategically best position but I see the arguments here are by and large one sided by a large number of Indian supporters v/s very few Pak supporters. So just to take the discussion fwd, I choose to argue on the hurdles in Indian side for this strategic move.

Anup, you bought forward a nice thought – “Jihad has already been declared on India, what more are we waiting for???”
So one of the hurdles for India the 1948 rule that i mentioned earlier could be overcome if India is bound to send troops to foreign land for the safety of its citizens. This cannot be restricted by law, we already have.

As far as Irans support to India against Pakistan is considered..I think Iran will support India as long as the affessive is called on terrorits in pakistan.because Iran has been a victim and long complaining to stop the terrorist attack in Iran from Pakistani Judallah clan..who are as deadly as LeT.

Apart from the hurdles I already mentioned..there are few more on the army front i anticipate for this strategic move..
1.) Indian army is not by far used to work in co-ordination with a multi-national army you can expect a few problems voiced by other NATO troops in that area.

2.) Indian army has never worked under a foreign command, will our army men accept to work with full support to a US army commander ??

3.) I think you agree that we will atleast need a troop strength more / atleast close to 100000, but such a large group itself is a problem..when US army top brass is questioning the decision of sending in 30000 more men saying they could just be a sitting ducks for the style of war games the Taliban militants engage them in. will the Indian army top brass allow sending sucha large number of men wiht out asking for a clear strategy from US ??

Posted by Anitha | Report as abusive
 

@India is not scared by a bunch of terrorist guys sitting on pillows telling others to get themselves blown up or killed, while they sit safe in a cave somewhere or in a tent, praying all day. What surprises me is that these guys are too cowardly to go fight themselves, instead they feed on those who are mentally weak and use their weakness to hurt others.

From the blogger, above “Why bother” correctly states that illiteracy is a huge problem in muslim culture. Since the wahhabi and “hashasins” (where the word assasin comes from) have politically taken over Islam, Muslim nations have been intellectually regressing for the past 1200 years.

That is, no modern development in mathematics, physics, engineering, biology, technology or art/science, etc has originated as a pure discovery from those nations. There has been no significant contribution of new or original knowledge and development to humanity from Islamic nations for the past 1200 years.

Yet Christianity, Hinduism and Judaism and other cultures, which number in the very few, relative to the world population, have made the quantum developmental leaps in science and brought us to the modern world today with computers, flight, the space programs and all matters of science which give us the life we enjoy today in the modern world.

What this means is that modern Islamic countries have been oppressed by Islamic Extremism, and at their core, they reject the fundamental idea of “questioning” one’s world.

The Golden Age of Islam ended when they were taken over by the Extremists. As Islam conquered nations, they would invite all the Doctors, Lawyers, Engineers to large places of gathering as guests and have them systematically beheaded. Within a generation a conquered nation would be set back 1000-2000 years.

As humans, if we stop questioning, this marks the end of the human race.

It is no wonder why so many Islamic countries have their people expatriated to other countries to learn and come back and educate their own home countries.

An evil, retrograde political and stagnant extremist ideology has hijacked moderate Islam 1200 years ago. The question is, is the average muslim going to embrace the current path of stagnation and hate, or embrace a modern thirst to bring Islam into a Renaissance and Reformation?

Extremist Islam serves only to drain the world of knowledge, the ability to question, and most of all, the progression of humanity.

Posted by Global Watcher | Report as abusive
 

Pakistan threatening to further “support insurgent groups” in Afghanistan is empty bravado!!

Pak economy is on life support. More importantly, the future econmoic prospects look bleaker. The chickens have come home to the roost.

Any chances of even survival requires money from IMF, WB and US aid. Purse strings will be even more tightened if this threat to “support insurgent groups” is attempted.

Also, beasides the monetary aspects, what’s going on Swat valley is evidence for the blowbacks Pakistan will suffer.

Pakistan army has escalated the covert war with its Mumbai operation. There is no other alternative.India will have to retaliate back to defend itself. Troops in Afghanistan are not the only option.

 

Julius
The ‘Peshawar Seven’ coalition of anti- Soviet mujahedeen forces & Mullah Omar the later founder of Taliban,was then in theHarakat-i-Inqilab-i-Islami faction & all he did was assimilate it under a new name & annexed Afghanistan…

Posted by Anup | Report as abusive
 

Anitha
—Indian troops will not join without a joint-command or independent arrangement, & further it could arrange strategic locations for itself or slowly shift to such locations with a planned long-term strategy, anyways, once our troops takeover NATO forces would merrily withdraw- & in any democracy even if you deploy two soldiers or twenty thousand , the outcry decibel is the same,

Posted by Anup | Report as abusive
 

Bangash Khan
“The presence of such a force also gives Pakistan a justifiable reason to support insurgent groups in Afghanistan.”
— Surely- Be our Guest- & gladly shall the same logic be used to support insurgent groups in Balochistan / Sindh / Waziristan etc. etc. against the Punjabi Army…

Posted by Anup | Report as abusive
 

Anitha
“..they could just be a sitting ducks for the style of war games the Taliban militants engage them in.”
— Our Army knows & has the best of experience against such types of battles- they are the best- proven in the Kashmir Valley & not to forget the humiliation of Pakistan during the Kargil war…

Posted by Anup | Report as abusive
 

@Anup, the army formations(equipment, strategy mix etc) are very largely different from when you are confronting the terrorists to when you have to confront an professional army. So when India is asked to extend its army help to eliminate terrorist targets..India cannot put arjun tanks there or bofors guns there which are fundamental to fight a conventional war the one we would like to fight with Pak army !!!Terrorists are fought with light infantry, aromoured vehicles, gun ships simply not enough to confront any army.

Kargil win was no doubt a brave show by Indian army but in my view the kargil war also exposed many deficiancies in Indian army..just to name few..
- the indian comander who was incharge blindly took his men to the forefront with out a clear occupy and hold strategy which was not carved out by his seniors either..which in total my far underestimated the enemy strength and their stratic position on the peak from where they could easily monitor troop movement down hill..we lost men in 100′s for not properlly planning..

- when the rajasthan border was put on alert there were 80-100 trucks (no correct figure is given to public till date) carrying ammunition supply to men in front positions which were destroyed because of fire and follwed by blasts because of mis-handling of materials during transit.luckily there were about 400 trucks loaded with explosives in that convey..most of them escaped the fire.

So guys dont estimate enemy strength with the experience we have from previous confrontations..every war is different..and every war has different leaders and different strategies carved out not to forget every war is fought with many new war toys on both sides..

Posted by Anitha | Report as abusive
 

I think i should also write about few positive improvements army achieved during kargil..
- The co-ordination between army and airforce were best ever then before its only in the war of 1971 these guys ( the army and airforce) worked together as a team other wise they lacked co-ordination in other wars fought before and acted on their own missions and targets.

- The bofors guns were put to real use and it proved more than just usefull equipment…which played a major role for the win..either to provide fire cover for ascending indian men who were easy targets for a enemy sitting on hill top..but ascending men prooved their mettle to step foot on those mountains even when they couldn’t see a enemy.

- Army was determined to take maximum lives from the enemy side..they did frame a innovative strategy which was to occupy the strageic peaks but did not secure and hold the positions after conquering..but they allowed the enemy to bite a bate by leaving those peaks and allowing the enemy to re-occupy so that our army can kill them and occupy again and again and again one of the reasons why kargil war took sucha long time to end..
Indian army didnt want to end it as long as they were killing fresh enemy..Pakistanis started it..and they ended it not because of diplomatic talks but they ended it by accepting defeat by not sending their men back again..

Posted by Anitha | Report as abusive
 

Anitha and Anup
Once again I support Anitha’s views. One thing needs to be clarified, AAfghanistan is a landlocked country and any huge military operation is dependent on Pakistan’s logistical support. The ISI understands the territory, for Pakistan Army this is also a familiar drill, Pakistan and Afghanistan dislodged the USSR from Afghanistan through ayymetrical warfare. Any large Indian military presence in Afghanistan must keep in view how will they sustain themselves in Afghanistan. Specially at a time when India’s relations with Pakistan are hostile.
Remember, Pakistan Army was ordered to open fire on intruding US ground forces after the famous Sept 3, 2008 Waziristan raid. After the incident, Pakistan Army really did open fire on NATO and US helicopters and it is on the record. The durand line border between Pakistan and Afghanistan is ill defined, Pakistan Army will engage the Indians in border skirmishes, with increased guirella attacks, IEDs, ambushes etc. Does Indian Army has counter insurgency capabilities? Is India prepared for such a costly adventure? I re-assert, Afghanistan will be a quagmire for India. Indian troops will be fighting for life in Afghanistan, much less posing any threat to Pakistan. The theory of strategic encirclement of Pakistan is nullified, given Pakistan’s capability to outmanouver such scenario with bold strategy.

Posted by Umair | Report as abusive
 

ANUP—

What are you waiting for my idiotic friend go tell the your coward army to go to Afghnistan.

Your army is good at raping kashmiri women, murdering children in staged killing and occupation. So if those are the skills required then I totaly agree with Anup indian cowards are best at it so there for should be given a chance.

Regards to Kargil war if it wasnt for Nawaz Sharif we had all supply line to your forces in sight of the Paki guns. No wonder your leaders got there totis together and went to USA to put little pressure on Pakistan and pull back lol. What about the downing of few indian fighter jets that got blasted out of skys lol. You forgot that already, like i said “JUST DO IT” and stop barking.

All I hear talk talk and NO ACTION, India tried and still is to harm Pakistan anyway possible. But the only sympthy they are getting is few statements from double standard western masters. Anyway India can forgot to ever even get A Paki to be tried in indian court so go to hell!

We are waiting but all we hear is from far are mad idnian dogs barking, surely they know as soon as they are sighted they will shot on the forhead exactly where the RED button is placed lol.

Posted by Ali | Report as abusive
 

Anitha
—Although debatable, Even then if your aspersions are taken on face value, should we just procrastinate & meekly accept the atrocities & mayhem heaped on us by Pakistan? Must not we assert our right to progressive & peaceful existence? Who says it’s going to be a cakewalk, but should uneventualities & the collateral damage costs act as a deterrent to determine our Universal fundamental rights?
-Debate / Discuss Army Strategies- But never cast aspersions or be pessimistic or doubt their grit & capabilities- always believe & put your trust in them…Yes, it would be a different war, many battles may be lost- But the War is ours to WIN!

Posted by Anup | Report as abusive
 

Here is pride of Pakistan, and pride of being Nuclear country….
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB12270316 8938638015.html

Have your say….

Posted by Jack | Report as abusive
 

Umair
—What all will you defend? The Rajasthan borders?the J&K loc? or defend the Northern Areas from falling in Indian hands from both sides? or fight the Indian forces on the Durrand lines? & be at the mercy of mercenary Jihadi forces to bail you out, would they not demand their pound of flesh? & when thru India’s good office, Russia & Iran allow uninterrupted movement & supplies(what do think we constructing the Afghan-Iran Highway for-Fun?)who all will you fight with…

Posted by Anup | Report as abusive
 

ALI—-

Brrrrrrrrrr….Shooooooo…

Posted by Anup | Report as abusive
 

Umair, Afghanistan is land locked only until Iran or Russia allows the movement into afghanistan through them…as i said earlier..there are more chances of Iran and Russia allowing just that as soon as India gets invovled in it..another reason to support my statement is when US declared to bring peace into afghanistan regional powers like India should get involved..Iran and Russia have felt a little bad for not including them..we all have read Iran’s cry to recognize it as a regional power..havn’t we ?? So they will be more than happy to co-operate with india.
I rather think there will not be a large army of any one wing..but will be a strategic mix of task force commandoes and air force. because as someone already pointed out because of large tribal armed men in west front of pakistan..there is no point having large number of men as it would be suicidal to try to enter and hold poistions from that side of pakistan…but a task force commandoes along with air force can swiftly inflict maximum damange to pakistani troops and get out of there and the rest can be done from entering from east with heavy artillary and full land army to hold the occupied territory.

Posted by Anitha | Report as abusive
 

This turning into a slugfest.

Could we have a discussion instead?

A new world order is emerging; America is not going to be the only superpower in the future; China, India, EU & Russia will be the major future players too.

Its too early to side with Nato and the US, India has to keep its equation with long time ally Russia and continue warming up to China, so I doubt India will send troops to Afghanistan.

Umair has a valid point; fact is Pakistan’s complete cooperation alone can guarantee a stable Afghanistan. But on the other hand if India was to send a division of troops to secure areas near Kabul and not engage in border areas with Pakistan (thereby avoiding body bags), it would still give many Pakistani generals and rulers sleepless nights.

This can have many effects on Pakistan, increased defense expenditure, increased ISI/Army interference in government decisions, diverting resources from economic restructuring of the country, political chaos, easing of army actions against Taliban and many more such nails in the coffin.

If India’s intention is to stop terrorism emanating from across the border then this is the ideal time to force Pakistan to do so by aggressive diplomacy, but if India really wants to break Pakistan opening a second war front would be an acceptable cost.

All wars come at heavy cost and best victory is the one achieved without war, but I think the situation in Afghanistan, Pakistan India triangle is so messed up it would sooner or later result in a short war or at least long period of proxy wars.

Posted by belligerent | Report as abusive
 

Anup..dude..just debating here..u can surely take me as a person who admires army than anybody else..not placing a mistrust or undermining them..i just said not to under estimate the opponent when you or anybody posts their views here..and you can be rest assured that army on both sides think and discuss only this 24/7 and are much more intelligent in making their strtegies than any of us bloggers here..I would request you to stop replying to non-sense and personall abuses from Ali here..you can take and reply on anything usefull from him..but dont drop down to his level of speech in your replies..it only shows his immaturity.
Am glad at Umair who is the only pakistani who is engaged in sensible discussion with out loose talks.

Posted by Anitha | Report as abusive
 

Ali wrote:
Your army is good at raping kashmiri women, murdering children in staged killing and occupation.Anyway India can forgot to ever even get A Paki to be tried in indian court so go to hell!
What do you care, Kashmir is a part of India and the only killing and murdering of women and children come from Pakistan non-state actors. Really your people are very good at killing women and children but when it comes to war just look at your history and see how many times your army has just turned and run. And last i looked a Paki will be tried in India(the Mumbai attacker), and boy is he brave, begged for his life like a little girl and squealed on all his friends. Big man without his guns and bombs. How is the world supposed to take the Pakistan army seriously when all we see of Pakistan fighters are little drugged out crying boys fall apart when they see someone with a gun. God your army is so silly that all your neighbors constantly lob bombs or fly drones over your boarders and laugh at you.

Posted by Chuck | Report as abusive
 

Belligerent,

India if at all sends troops to Afghanistan then its definately not with the intention of supporting US or NATO, we may have to stay there though..simply because Taliban was never our enemy to fight with but was a recognized govt from Indians.
Indian army presense in afghanistan will not have a considerable army expenses for pakistan because they already have their army there for many years now and is nothing new..
and Indian intention is definately not only to stop terrorism when it send troops to afghanistan..we aint saints either!!

Posted by Anitha | Report as abusive
 

Anitha
Iran allowing logistical support to Indian troops for Afghanistan is unimaginable as long as thousands of American troops are stationed in Afghanistan. US is begining talks with Kazakhstan to secure some supply routes. Russia with its already worsening gas disputes with Ukraine and Europe has long seen expanded NATO as a threat. Remember the whole operation in Afghanistan, the American troops are under UNAMA(UN Assistance Mission to Afghansitan) while NATO troops operate under the authority of (ISAF) Intl. security Assistance Force. Currently, after Gerogia conflict Russian has suspended cooperation with NATO. Although a major world player, Russia will have no interest in present day Afghanistan. Russian priorities lie in the Caucasus, Black Sea and the energy supply routes to western Europe. Besides all this any supply routes strecthed all along from Russian territory running into Afghanistan will be vulnerable and fragile at best.
Indian commando and air force attacks from Afghan side of the border? FORGET IT. Read following eye opener article in US Army Times dated sept 2008:
http://www.armytimes.com/news/2008/09/Ar my_border_ops_092608w/
THE US conducted a commando raid in Sept 3 in Waziristan after which Pakistan threatened to shut supply lines and ordered the Army to open fire shooting down helicopters and intruding ground troops. Few incidents of exchange of fire took place, few brave officers on the border did open fire on the Americans, the above article tells the rest of the story how the US underestimated Pakistan’s strength. It is in the word of US military command, I am not self praising Pakistan Army.
Is India more of super power than US? If US could not conduct such operations against Pakistan, India will never. Besides, dont expect Pakistani F-16s not coming into action, this will be nothing less than a quagmire.
ENTERING FROM the east? with Pakistan Army strike corps based in Punjab and Sindh provinces backed with Infantry, artrillery, Cobra gunships and close air support by Pakistan Air Force prepare your selves for a tough battle. This way or that, Pkaistan will never be an easy game. Not to mention weapons of mass destruction, all hell will break loose if Pakistan’s soverignity, territorial integrity and honour is threatened.

Posted by Umair | Report as abusive
 

Anitha,
Only Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and the United Arab Emirates recognized the Taliban as Afghanistan’s legitimate government. India did not.

Pakistan army is present on the border but never really ever had a credible threat of invasion from the Afghan border, so an Indian deployment will increase its expenditure exponentially and drain its already depleted economy.

Barring a nuclear war India is in a win-win situation but for Pakistan as the name of this blog suggests its “Pakistan now or never?”.

As you rightly said “we aint saints either!!”, its prudent to recognize that if Pakistan is cornered from all sides (internal: radicals, Taliban, ISI, public opinion. external: well pretty much the whole world), what option does it really have except to go nuclear ?

There are secular forces in Pakistan too and there are those who are under influences of vested powers. It would be wrong to push an entire nation for the acts of few.

Long story short I see only one viable situation where the Pakistan regains its position in the world ”Regime Change” (I know the term has been misused in the past) and by regime change I mean changes in the ISI and Pakistan Army and its ideology.
Changing Pakistan’s political leadership, it’s just too easy and it doesn’t really wield any powers.

Hopefully in a few hundred years (or sooner) all countries will have open borders and the world will be divided into economic zones but until then we will have to just revel in our cave man mentality.

Posted by belligerent | Report as abusive
 

Anitha
—Alright, Strategies & tactics are as it is left to the amateurs & analysts, the Pros believe in results…
–Ali is fun-lol

Posted by Anup | Report as abusive
 

++++++But on the other hand if India was to send a division of troops to secure areas near Kabul and not engage in border areas with Pakistan (thereby avoiding body bags), it would still give many Pakistani generals and rulers sleepless nights++++

Totally agreed. That’s the way to go for India.

It will be really foolish for India to resume “composite dialogue” and expect Pakistan to stop its covert war.

 

Anup and Belligerent
Firt, Pakistan has a policy of offensive defense. This means Pakistan will not be on the defense on all fronts, Kashmir, north, LOC Afghan border and east in Punjab/Rajhastan. Prepare for offensive and attacking scenarios. Pakistan has the capability to fight multi-prong warfare, defeating the Soveit Union, the 50 years long strategic relationship with the US, the development of nuclear weapons. Pakistan has come a long way in understanding and conducting power game.
After being cornered from all sides, Pakistan will need an offensive strategy, a mix of caution and agrression, some times bold, a policy based on disinformation, secrecy and lies. ISI will have to do what it does best, Pakistan will need to forge new alliances, open up new fronts. It will get messy and chaotic, but ultimately the final blow will be dealt to India as Pakistan outmanouver it.
After Mumbai attacks, India tried diplomatic isolation and Pakistan outsmart this move. Strategic encirclement? expecting ISI had not planned in advance to counter anything like this? this will be ridiculous on part of India.

Posted by Umair | Report as abusive
 

Umair
—”Pakistan’s soverignity, territorial integrity and honour is threatened.”

—Well then respect others sovereignty, territorial integrity and honour & earn the right to claim your own…
“Pakistan will never be an easy game”
–We are not the one spoiling for war, it’s Pakistan that’s forcing it down our throat,& if it turns ugly- so be it…you need not be a Super Power to defend your right to peaceful living…

Posted by Anup | Report as abusive
 

Umair
“Pakistan has come a long way in understanding and conducting power game.”

—We’ll see at the appropriate hour,,, you forget the sea my friend- Mordern wars are fought with Navies also, India will destroy Karachi port once again, block & suffocate supplies & aids to Pakistan…it would cripple Pakistan.

Posted by Anup | Report as abusive
 

Anup
This is a war of attrition, two lions cant stay in one den. Either India or Pakistan will be eliminated. Both will have to do their best. I am on Pakistan side and you have bet your chances for India. Lets do our best to empower our countries and fight on.

Posted by Umair | Report as abusive
 

Anup
Karachi’s Naval blockade is a long Indian dream, after acquiring French Agosta submarines, Pkaistan have signed an agreement to acquire another three German subs.
C-802 is an anti-ship missile which will never allow Indian warships closing in on Pakistani coasts. PC-3 Orions conducting reconnaisance, Pakistan Navy submarines patrolling the coast, Pakistan is up to speed with Naval warfare. You can run but you cant hide!

Posted by Umair | Report as abusive
 

Umair ”
After Mumbai attacks, India tried diplomatic isolation and Pakistan outsmart this move.”

—We expected it to be so, but being a matured & responsible Nation, we would not act impulsively & behave like warmongers, thus, even after being fully aware of the outcome, we opted for the diplomatic route, step by step- All Our Options are still Open…

Posted by Anup | Report as abusive
 

Umair

—My sincere apologies to all Pakistani’s- because we shall destroy all the subs / tanks / f-16′s etc. for which your coming future generations shall pay thru their nose to the Jews (IMF-who’s money do you think it is? ofcourse the Jews!), Whose money your Army is mindlessly spending for the amusement of the Indian Soldiers for war practice…

Posted by Anup | Report as abusive
 

Umair

–There’s only one Tiger in the jungle-India. Pakistan is a halluci-Nation…an imposter who’s usured our holy ancestral land…

Posted by Anup | Report as abusive
 

Anup wrote:
“India will destroy Karachi port once again, block & suffocate supplies & aids to Pakistan…it would cripple Pakistan.”
Pakistan Air Force will retaliate with in minutes, in Gaza Palestinians never had an Air Force unfortunately. The F-16s, Mirage, F-7Ps, JF-17 Thunders, Fighting Falcons, Sidewinder missiles, rockets and machine gun fire, bombs, ……….
Dont expect to do a Gaza on Pakistan. Pakistani pilots are not playing chess in their hangars, they could scramble with their jets within minutes to respond to any intruding aircraft.

Posted by Umair | Report as abusive
 

Hi Umair, I agree with your thinking of support from Iran and Russia depended on US presence in the region until it is Bush’s administration..If you had kept along with emerging news you can see both Iran and Russia expressed atleast 3 time in last week to forge good relations with US with Obama..but still it may depend on how Obama will take the new relations forward. So we may have to keep a watch on this one.and i have a feeling it will not take long to acess what will happen because first thing Obama said will do is handle Middle east / Isreal that will lay foundation of his relations with Iran and Russia may come later.
Pakistan threatened NATO and US by shutting down supply routes after ground raid..well thats is what it is all about..Pakistan will definately shut down the routes again if India is allowed in to Afghan that is expected.

Entering from east ?? yes..you know , I know pakistan with 1:7 ratio of its population in army but still is 1:2 with army strength with India..India simply has twice as much as pakistan has. And India has showed numbers of all army equipment and tanks a little more than twice than what pakistan has..but we know none of the countries ever reveal their real numbers..they always show a little less..Only equipment that India has a little less than pakistan is number of armoured vehicles..you have more of them…but then India has Russian Tunguskas ( Not sure if am spelling it right).

Posted by Anitha | Report as abusive
 

Anup wrote:
“—We expected it to be so, but being a matured & responsible Nation, we would not act impulsively & behave like warmongers, thus, even after being fully aware of the outcome, we opted for the diplomatic route, step by step- All Our Options are still Open…”
This maturity and responsibility came into India’s attitude on 28 May 1998 when Pakistan taught it a lesson by conducting 6 deadly and massive nuclear explosion piercing the Baluchistan mountain ranges with lethal force. India is like a beast which can only be controlled with a stick. Its good India is learning its lessons. India is sure acting mature, it better should. Time to behave like war mongerers have long gone.

Posted by Umair | Report as abusive
 

@ belligerent –
“There are secular forces in Pakistan too ”

Please can you name few ??

Posted by Anitha | Report as abusive
 

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