Pakistan: Now or Never?
Perspectives on Pakistan
India, Pakistan and the rise of China
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India has been fretting for months that it could be pushed into the background by the United States’ economic dependence on China and by the renewed focus on Pakistan by President Barack Obama’s administration. That anxiety appears to have increased lately – perhaps because the end of the country’s lengthy election campaign has opened up space to think more about the external environment — and is focusing on China.
In an interview with the Hindustan Times, Indian Air Chief Marshal Fali Homi Major said China posed a greater threat than Pakistan. “China is a totally different ballgame compared to Pakistan,” he was quoted as saying. “We know very little about the actual capabilities of China, their combat edge or how professional their military is … they are certainly a greater threat.”
The Mint newspaper followed up with a editorial calling China “perhaps the gravest external threat” to India’s security. “That India is in an unstable neighbourhood is clearer than ever this summer,” it said. “But troubles from Pakistan, Sri Lanka or Nepal pale when compared with China.”
The increased anxiety has been driven by the end of the war in Sri Lanka, where the government’s victory was attributed partly to a supply of Chinese weapons, and where China has been building a new port on the island’s southern coast.
“This is part of a broad move by China into the Indian Ocean, which India has traditionally considered its sphere of influence,” said British newspaper The Times. Chinese engineers are building another port at Gwadar in Pakistan; roads are being cut or improved through Burma to help trade routes between Yunnan province in China and the Indian Ocean; ties are being improved with island nations such as the Seychelles; surveillance stations are being sited or upgraded on Burmese islands.”
But even without the Sri Lankan trigger, Indian analysts have suggested that India may no longer enjoy the favoured position that developed under former president George W. Bush, when Washington forged close ties with Delhi, in part as a counterweight to China. Facing the twin challenges of financial crisis and a military stalemate in Afghanistan, the Obama administration is dependent on India’s two main rivals — China to pay for American debt and Pakistan to help it defeat the Taliban.
“The crux of the matter lies in the US’s relationship with China,” retired Indian diplomat M.K. Bhadrakumar wrote in the Asia Times. “At first glance, it may appear there is hardly any ellipsis between George W Bush’s policy of engaging China in ‘constructive, candid and cooperative’ ties and Obama’s search for a ‘positive, cooperative and comprehensive’ US-China partnership. But the reality is that the US today has a much greater need of strategic engagement with China and arguably to ‘upgrade’ the partnership in the direction of an elevated dialogue on global political issues.”
“To be sure, China’s global influence has increased and a full-blown US-China strategic partnership – as evident from the mere talk of an exclusive ‘G-2′ matrix – will figure on the radars of countries such as India (or Japan) as a high probability if not an inevitability. The Obama administration will have to work hard to reassure India that it is not being relegated to a subordinate status.”
India’s loss does not automatically mean Pakistan’s gain.
Pakistan has traditionally regarded China as its most reliable ally. In the past, Sino-Indian rivalry has helped it to win military supplies from China along with financial and diplomatic support. But rivalry between its two giant neighbours has not necessarily always played in its favour. India developed nuclear weapons to counter China’s nuclear capability. Pakistan, according to the Pakistan Army’s official website, saw this as “coercive diplomacy” targetting not China, but Pakistan, and began its own nuclear weapons programme after India carried out its first nuclear test in 1974.
Nor did Pakistan necessarily gain from India’s defeat by China in a border war in 1962, which left India with an enduring anxiety about its long, unmarked borders. When it feared Pakistan was planning to take control of the mountains beyond Kashmir — an area so remote that it had never been demarcated — India sent troops to occupy the heights above the Siachen glacier in 1984. Although India had been burned by what it saw as Chinese encroachment in its border areas before the 1962 war, its actions on Siachen were directed against Pakistan. (Twenty-five years later, the Indian and Pakistan armies are still deployed on the heights above Siachen, with India commanding the higher positions.)
Nor does Pakistan automatically gain from ever-closer ties between the United States and China.
According to this McClatchy report, the Obama administration has appealed to China to provide training and even military equipment to help Pakistanis counter the growing militant threat. “The proposal is part of a broad push by Washington to enlist key allies of Pakistan in an effort to persuade Islamabad to step up its efforts against militants while supporting the fragile civilian government and its tottering economy.” it says. Richard Holbrooke, the administration’s special representative for Pakistan and Afghanistan, had visited China and Saudi Arabia, another ally, in recent weeks as part of the effort, it said.
In the past, Pakistan prided itself as a go-between, facilitating the Cold War thaw in relations between the United States and communist China in the early 1970s. That may seem like a long time ago, but in a region with a fierce attachment to history, is Pakistan really ready to have Washington and Beijing talk over its head about what is best for it?
(Photos: President Obama meets President Hu in London; and Indian soldiers in Siachen)
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I don’t think the Chinese will build networks around India for future military offensives. They know that wars cost a lot. They may build ports in countries surrounding India to coerce them for economic surrender in the future. By bringing China into their borders, these countries will end up getting colonized by the Chinese, meeting Chinese needs more than theirs. India should not worry about Chinese growth in the region. India should just focus on its growth and independence from a resource and technology stand point. And India should avoid any wars with either China or its neighbors. Diplomacy is the vital tool to use. China has Taiwan as the biggest territorial conquest pending. They may force nearby countries to move aside in order to build their roads and pipelines so that they can be fed off those. China definitely is the world’s next super power. There is no way India can match them and I see no need for it. I do not want India to be used as a sand bag for American defense.
As far Pakistan, its use as a geo-strategic ally for the Western powers is over. As soon as Al Qaeda is wiped out and the Taliban is emasculated, Americans and their allies will drop their level of intensity in operations in the region. They will have a foot hold in Afghanistan. But it won’t be intense. It would be good if Pakistan manages to turn around and become an economic power house by itself. It will be a huge market and can trade with every country in the neighborhood.
China and India should help diffuse tension in the region by not engaging against each other. India has to conduct intense diplomacy to convince the Chinese that confrontation is not the way to go. Co-operation and friendly ties will help both countries lead the whole region to prosperity.
Let us hope wisdom prevails.
Myra
—It’s virtually impossible to see thru the Chinese designs,& stupid not to beleive so,although that they are encircling India & gaining control or increasing their presence in the Indian Ocean is conceivable, not that they shall attack India from the sea but when they launch an offensive in the N.E. regions of India to occupy Arunachal , Sikkim etc. the only detrimental they face is that incase of a prolonged war, the Indian navy can cut off it’s supply route from the strait of Malacca & the gulf of eden – thus the Chinese naval bases in Burma & Srilanka for the former & gwadar for the latter.
“the Obama administration is dependent on India’s two main rivals — China to pay for American debt and Pakistan to help it defeat the Taliban.”
— The global mess presently has got less to do with terrorism, economic fallout etc. rather more because some fools are occupying whitehall & 10 downing relying on advice from a pack of ignorant & self-gratifying jokers…
“But the reality is that the US today has a much greater need of strategic engagement with China and arguably to ‘upgrade’ the partnership in the direction of an elevated dialogue on global political issues.”
—-Really! china has proxy ‘slapped’ the US twice on it’s face – courtesy N. Korea – The US under Obama stands to loose it’s credibility if it doesn’t gives a befitting reply to N.Korea for it’s nuclear tests – Japan is loosing faith in the US…others will follow suit..
China is the next super power and US realizes it. Any country that is friends will China or does business with China will benefit. So I see a positive development in Pakistan die to rise of China. India, sadly will always be the regional rival of India and at point I see India being subdued again by China, like it was back in 1962. US may use India to counter China but then again US may have to depend on China economically. This is terrific article and I have doubt that China will dominate Asia in the next 15 years.
Gradually India will find itself engulfed by Chinese strategic presence all around it.China already has a huge military and economic presence in arch-rival Pakistan with more inroads being dug into Nepal,Sri Lanka and Myanmar.China is also constructing a naval surveillance station in Seychelles.
http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.arm y.mil/pdffiles/PUB721.pdf
“The “String of Pearls” describes the manifestation of China’s rising geopolitical influence through efforts to
increase access to ports and airfields, develop special diplomatic relationships, and modernize military
forces that extend from the South China Sea through the Strait of Malacca, across the Indian Ocean, and
on to the Arabian Gulf. A question posed by the “String of Pearls” is the uncertainty of whether China’s
growing influence is in accordance with Beijing’s stated policy of “peaceful development,” or if China
one day will make a bid for regional primacy. This is a complex strategic situation that could determine
the future direction of China’s relationship with the United States, as well as China’s relationship
with neighbors throughout the region.”
Due to double standards of American Policies (which specially persue Jews policies), Pakistanis do not trust US, as past witness, US left Pakistan alone after using Pakistan against Soviet Union, however China is a trust-worthy friend of Pakistan and Pakistan must keep friendly relations with China at all cost…Also Pakistan must keep Nuclear Deterence and improve it as India is a grave threat to Pakistan. US torture policies are about to end and the world will witness that China will be the next super power and a global leader..
“What Is the String of Pearls?
Each “pearl” in the “String of Pearls” is a nexus of Chinese geopolitical influence or military
presence.4 Hainan Island, with recently upgraded military facilities, is a “pearl.” An upgraded airstrip
on Woody Island, located in the Paracel archipelago 300 nautical miles east of Vietnam, is a “pearl.” A
container shipping facility in Chittagong, Bangladesh, is a “pearl.” Construction of a deep water port
in Sittwe, Myanmar, is a “pearl,” as is the construction of a navy base in Gwadar, Pakistan.5 Port and
airfield construction projects, diplomatic ties, and force modernization form the essence of China’s
“String of Pearls.” The “pearls” extend from the coast of mainland China through the littorals of the
South China Sea, the Strait of Malacca, across the Indian Ocean, and on to the littorals of the Arabian
Sea and Persian Gulf. China is building strategic relationships and developing a capability to establish
a forward presence along the sea lines of communication (SLOCs) that connect China to the Middle East.”
String of Pearls:
Meeting the challenge of china’s rising power across the asian littoral.
“The port facility at Gwadar, for example, is a win-win prospect for both China and Pakistan. The port at Karachi currently handles 90 percent of Pakistan’s sea-borne trade, but because of its proximity to India, it is extremely vulnerable to blockade. This happened during the India-Pakistan War of 1971 and was threatened again during the Kargil conflict of 1999.6 Gwadar, a small fishing village which Pakistan identified as a potential
port location in 1964 but lacked the means to develop, is 450 miles west of Karachi.7 A modern port at Gwadar would enhance Pakistan’s strategic depth along its coastline with respect to India. For China, the strategic value of Gwadar is its 240-mile distance from the Strait of Hormuz. China is facilitating development of Gwadar and paving the way for future access by funding a majority of the $1.2 billion project and providing the technical expertise of hundreds of engineers.8 Since construction began in 2002, China has invested four times more than Pakistan and contributed an additional $200 million
towards the building of a highway to connect Gwadar with Karachi. In August 2005, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao visited Pakistan to commemorate completion of the first phase of the Gwadar project and the opening of the first 3 of 12 multiship berths.”
NY TIMES reports:
Iran demonstrates regional clout
Iran hosts its first three-way summit meeting with Pakistan and Afghanistan to discuss cooperation on regional issues, the latest sign of Iran’s emergence as a regional power.
-Both China and Iran, along with Pakistan are India’s regional rivals in one way or the other. This doesnt necessarily mean a confrontation with India. But certainly the geo-strategic environment is evolving.
BUSINESS RECORDER
“TEHRAN (updated on: May 25, 2009, 09:06 PST): Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan on Sunday reaffirmed their deep commitment to make every effort to eliminate extremism, militancy and terrorism from the region, stated a joint communique issued at the conclusion of one day trilateral summit. The communique was signed by Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad and Afghan President Hamid Karzai. ”
“Islamabad and Tehran sign gas pipeline accord
TEHRAN (May 25 2009): President Asif Ali Zardari and his Iranian counterpart Dr Mahmood Ahmadinejad on Sunday signed an intergovernmental framework declaration to support within the framework of their respective laws and regulations, the gas deal signed by the oil ministries of the respective countries”
If Indian leaders have the foresight and strategic thinking, they would settle outstanding disputes with Pakistan and embark on a friendly relationship. Pakistan’s strategic importance will ensure there is no diplomatic isolation. Pakistan has sound ties with muslim world and Persian Gulf states including , Saudi Arabia, Iran, China and the United States. Historically Pakistan has played its role in establishing diplomatic ties between Beijing and Washington, Pakistan can again play its role in bridging the gap between Iran and US.
Also, notable is the fact that Iran has recently improved relations with Saudi Arabia and King Abdullah hosted President Ahmedinejad for talks in Riyadh.
no doubt china is a regional super power and will have a lot of influence. though a direct war seems highly impossible but china will have its strategic advantages…and that will hurt india economically or diplomatically maybe..
yes there are certqin areas of concern as its trying to increase the influence in nepal ,srilanka and other neighbopuring countries…but the people to people contact in case of nepal and a goodwill b/w india and srilanka will definately help.
as far as bangladesh is concerned there is a pro india govt right now and india has to work with them .
pakistan is a natural ally for china agaisnt india but we have been facing them for the past 60 years so there is no major change in that..infact china had confirmed sikkim to be part of india as china basically has territorial issues with india and there is a growing realisation that trade and economics are much more important aspects.
so even for china though they may have a strategic advantage but i m sure they wont take india head on as there is too much to loose.
us and uk have a dodgy relationship with china and they also cannot avoid india as they need their help in aghanistan as any help over there would be a positive.
but there is another block which was thought of earlier ans there have been talk at a higher level to check the influence of US i.e, russia,china and india…….which then would not be in the interest of US..
meanwhile india should resolve issues with pakistan…as they are heading in the right direction as kashmir will be solved and jihadi’s will meet their end and people to people contact will increase as there was a process happening before 26/11 and the only obstacle is the cross border terrorism…so india just have to wait and watch and play the game.
Umair :Both China and Iran, along with Pakistan are India’s regional rivals in one way or the other. This doesnt necessarily mean a confrontation with India. But certainly the geo-strategic environment is evolving.
let me tell u and i m sure u would also know that iran definately doesn’t want india in a strategy tie up with US and has cordial realtionship with india even though india is quite close to israel which is their no 1 defance supplier.
US definately doesn’t want india to be close to iran and doesnt want india to be in agreement with iran over gas pipeline…but that’s in india’s interest and only issue there is the gas prices which are flexible and india can join the deal later with iran as it was actually an indian-iranian idea and pak joined later. iran is neutral to india and pak..as pak is been a US buddy and have had considerable violance against shias which is the majority in iran .
Raging Bull
Pak-Iran ties are on merit and do not get influenced by Indo-Iranian ties. For example, When Pakistan tested nuclear devices in May 1998, Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi was the first foreign official to visit Islamabad couple of days later to congratulate Pakistan. I dont remember if he ever congratulated New Delhi.
Pakistan does experience some sectarian tension between few radical shia and sunni groups during the Muslim month of Moharram but otherwise these remain under control throughout the year and shias and sunnis live side by side. What we are talking about is an approach by Iran which is seen as its demonstration of regional clout, its improvement of ties with Saudi Arabia, consolidation of ties with Pakistan and Afghanistan. Iran’s help is sought by US to help stabilize Afghanistan. During Pakistan’s recent economic difficulties, Iran pledged oil to Pakistan on deferred payments. Iran controls the strait of Hormuz and with the amount of oil exports transported out of Persian Gulf states via strait of hormuz you can well imagine how harmful it would be if Iran were to shut down the strait of Hormuz in any conflict. However, I have very little knowledge of how China fits here and what is the status of Sino-Iranian ties.
that’s true umair…iran is neutral to india and pak…
india is helping iran in upgrading the chabbar port..as that would give afghanistan an alternative route to bring the goods through zarand delaram highway built by BRO(india)….
This is the age of global cooperation, not global conflict & both India & China have already realized that. Economic & trade relations form the basis of the relationship between any 2 nations. India & China have considerably expanded their trade relations in the recent past & by 2020, India-China trade is expected to surpass $400 billion. The Chinese are the most pragmatic & self-centered creatures on this planet & they are waking up to the fact that it is in their self interest to forge stronger ties with an economic power-house like India & distance themselves from a failed (or failing) country like Pakistan. If the Pakistanis think that they can hold China’s finger forever, they’re living in a fool’s paradise. As we recently saw in the ‘Friends of Pakistan’ begging session, China has already started to snub Pakistan.
Chinese are the smartest business people in the world, ruthless and demanding. Overseas Chinese have made Singapore, Malaysia and Taiwan what they are now. Chinese enterprise in business is proving itself in mainland China as well.
Instead of looking at them as rivals, it would be prudent for India to look at them as a senior friend and work with them to improve economic ties and co-operation. One should not try to be on the wrong side of an emerging super power.
China is surrounding India with strategic network of ports and keeping hostility in neighboring countries. This is to keep India engaged and kept relatively behind. This is how it is going to be for the next few decades.
What India should do is, not to engage in confrontation with China and engage in diplomacy with them. It is on India’s hands to build economic co-operation with the Chinese and work with them. India needs to stay out of the way of big powers until it has improved living standards, wealth and power. Even then it should never try to show off to others.
Economic inter-dependency is the way out of all conflicts and geo-political issues.
The countries which are lining up to become Chinese vassals in order to engage India for emotional reasons should realize that the Chinese are very different from the US. They are not a benevolent power. They will use your countries as factory floors for their use. You will work with them as their colonial subjects. That is the type of relationship Chinese expect from these “pearls.” Be careful and do not fall into that trap. Try to be independent if you do not want to turn into a “pearl.” Chinese have no accountability for anything that they do. So be careful. The Chinese will smile at you until you have eaten the candy that they give. After eating that, you belong to them. But it is your choice. India is surely on the receiving end due to Chinese emergence. But I am glad that India can stand up to them if the need arises.
Pakistan will be better off if it can manage well the delicate balances between its Taliban threats and the America’s desire to finish Taliban off completely for the following reasons:
1) To finish Taliban off completely, it will cost Pakistan a lot more in terms of human lives and national treasury, as well as the good will of a significant portion of its population.
2) If the Taliban threats were to disappear completely, Pakistan will be cast off again by America like a pair of old shoes, just like the last time around after the Soviet Army withdrew from Afghanistan.
3) As long as Taliban is still a problem for America, it will need Pakistan. It will have to help Pakistan by giving Pakistan moral support, military support, and economic support; it can not afford to alienate Pakistan by tilting to India completely on issues that are important to Pakistan with thoughtless impulses, as how it was behaving before.
India remains patient until Maoism time is up – & then deal accordingly to the emerging changed scenario -
Myra,
The situation is very nuanced. The estimates say that the US, China and the EU will dominate the global military, economic and diplomatic space. I believe the top spot just got more crowded. These three powers, each with unique characteristics, will cooperate and compete with each other all over the world based on the situation. In Asia, regional powers such as India and Japan will be sought after by the triad to project their power and get access to markets or assets. If this theory holds merit, India will be courted by the US, China and the EU; each trying to influence its presence in South Asia.
Pakistan, on the other hand, cannot survive without an external patron. It’ll always ‘need’ the US or China or Saudi Arabia. In the short-term, Pakistan will live up to its label as the “rent-seeking state”. In the long term, it has to be seen if Pakistan’s all weather alliance helps stablize Pakistan more than during its alliance with the US.
I actually disagree with this entire story of “China being the next Superpower in the world/region”. reasons,
1> A country can become Superpower by acceptance not by shear creation of “pearl of strings”, China is totally unacceptable to European world/Americans (N) & Indians, which constitute a huge population on planet. most out of most, China would become one of the Powers (wealthy & dominating center of Art & Business that’s solve).
2> Chinese People doesn’t enjoy the rights which people of free civil society enjoys in most of the world (except few Islamic republics), a Superpower is suppose to project freedom (imagine Europeans/Americans/Indians following Communism)across the world, which China simply fails to understand.(banning blogs/internet sites/videos/TV programs/protests etc etc..)
3> Chinese Market is a market of Exporting goods (mainly to NA/EU) but if you look internally, Chinese banking system itself is unique and old fashioned where, govt holds a tight grip over money of its citizens, till recent past one can’t even buy a real estate in its own country rather had to rent from govt. do you think world will obey these values of next Superpower??
4> If you forgot U.S.S.R. and Cold War, then let me remind you again, Soviet was also use to be called a World Super Power(very similar to what China is being hailed as) and now Russia don’t even want to think of becoming a Superpower
, my dear, Americans are not here to cut my lawns grass in backyard, that they will simply give the keys to world supremacy to China and go for a long vacation.
5> Lastly India being the China’s rival, If you have seen in recent past, even India-Pakistan who loves to go for a war anytime, are being hesitant of it, do you thing its wise enough to go on a war without a gain just for fun??? but yeah these two countries together can make a multipolar world and feed their huge populations in terms of energy and resources, I see them(India+China+Russia+Iran(probably)) becoming a kind of EU-union in coming years to counter NA/EU .. lets see
i forgot to mention two important points(read:angles) in my previous post,
1. America is in Chinese debt, this is not new and it has always been the case for most of the big economies trading with each other, its a good political slogan though to feed your population to prove Bush was a fool-evil.
2. Pakistan, the “Rental State” , has been rented to Capitalists/Communists/Islamist/Westerne rs/USA/Japanese/Friends of Pakistan/Taliban/NON-NATO alley/Chinese/Jihadist across middle east & Central Asia/ and whom-so-ever I forgot. In 62 years of its existence has been part of all the major conspiracies/dispute across the world, is a unique place with N-bombs/Osama/China/USA/Saudi/Taliban/Ji had all at one place..
and yeah love for free Indian (Bollywood) movies & channels.
Due to the undeniable fact that China has now gained the super power status due to its economic and military muscle and the reality that USA’s economic downfall will inevitably lead it into a detente with China at less favorable terms, India’s future looks really bleak. China has almost completed the encirclement of India.
Asia is a global catalyst in today’s economic and social spheres and an unknown phenomena for the rest of the world – but not for all – A Nigerian prophet, TB Joshua has foretold many events that have taken place in Asia, notably, the resignation of Pakistan President Musharraf, the Marriot hotel bomb blast in Pakistan, the Bankok riots, the Indian Deli Bridge Collapse, the capture and death of Sri Lankan Tamil Tiger Leader, Prabhakaran and most recently the death of Former South Korean President Roh Moo-Hyun. Check out http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNVk5Byxo jk
Thanks for all the comments so far and I have more questions:
@ the younger generation of Indians on this blog. Is the 1962 war still a burning issue, or does it seem too far in the past to be relevant?
@ Indians on this blog. Isn’t the problem with the rising trade with China that India is mostly exporting raw materials while importing manufactured goods from China? (if someone has time to give me the link to the latest trade figures, I’d be grateful – if not I’ll dig them out myself)
@ Pakistanis on this blog. There have been suggestions lately that China has begun to let Pakistan down. Is that correct, or a common perception?
@ Everyone. Do you see the creation of an eventual Asian block (made up of a variety of combinations of alliances including India/Pakistan/Iran/China/Russia/SCO members) that leaves little or no room for the United States or Europe?
Myra
Myra
“There have been suggestions lately that China has begun to let Pakistan down. Is that correct, or a common perception?”
-Well, if ever there was any suggestion that China has begun to let Pakistan down, it does not seem to be the case. Military and economic ties as well as diplomatic ties are same as ever. Yes, during this time of recession no one from Pakistan expected a multimillion dollar check from China, Pakistan needs foreign investment, peace, stability etc. In recent time China has assured Pakistan of investment in infrastructure. Thousands of Chinese engineers are in Pakistan working on different projects. China has invested in Telecom sector among other things. Shortly, it doesn’t really seem to be the case that China would like to dump Pakistan.
Dr. Ifthikar writes: “India’s future looks really bleak. China has almost completed the encirclement of India.”
Well sir, I wouldn’t write India off that quickly. China definitely is one among the world’s super powers (US, Russia, and EU). And all of them will look at India as a huge market as well as a service and manufacturing base. many European and American car companies have plants all over India. So India definitely will not be in that league of those super powers, but it will be comfortable. Sri Lanka will never mess with India. The last time they did, Tamil insurgency took close to 26 years to snuff out. Before that they were pretty much advanced. So they’d like to prosper along with India. Whether they like Indians or not is immaterial. It is not as terrible as that between India and Pakistan currently. A lot is going to depend upon where Pakistan is headed. If your military finishes off the Taliban, then your country must make certain that it does not go back on that path again. And China has carefully avoided getting involved in Pakistan’s issues. It has stayed out of the Kashmir problem too. That tells something. India is very different from what it was in 1962. And the Chinese recognize that. They are not foolish regarding nukes either. They have become smart and all they want is to play against the bigger powers like the US and Russia. India only matters as a staging ground for American counter efforts. And most of us Indians, do not want our country to become an American launching pad either. In all, things will settle down. China will never want to mess with an economically advancing India. It is a huge market. And they are not foolish. India may be facing constant irritation from various directions, but it is not looking at a bleak future. Far from it.
It seems to me that the IAF chief is either disconnected from his army colleagues or just angling for more money to buy new toys by raising the specter of Chinese threat. The reality is that India has about 33 infantry divisions, of which Twenty-four are on Pakistan borders. India has three armored divisions, all three are positioned on Pakistan borders. India has all three of its mechanized divisions deployed near Pakistan borders.
So where is the India’s real focus again? China or Pakistan?
While China did help Sri Lanka, I believe Pakistan was the main supplier of weapons that SL used to crush LTTE.
After SL Gen Fonseca’s visit last year, Pakistan sold 22 Al-Khalid tanks to Sri Lanka in a deal worth over US$100 million. Sri Lanka also purchased Multi-Barrel Rocket Launcher System (MBRLS), cluster bombs, deep penetration bombs and rockets and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) from Pakistan, according to various reports. In fact, Sri Lanka, along with some Middle Eastern nations, has now become one of the largest buyers of Pakistani arms in the last few years.
What happened in Sri Lanka last week is India’s moment of truth, as B.Raman puts it. Sri Lanka has triumphed over LTTE terrorists in spite of India, not because of it. Pakistan, along with China, has clearly played a key role as Sri Lanka’s main arms supplier and trainer in ensuring LTTE’s defeat, and India is clearly not happy with how the events played out leading to Sri Lanka’s win. This new reality highlights the importance of Pakistan as a regional player in South Asia and upsets what India’s national security adviser called New Delhi’s “pre-eminent Position” in the region.
As far as I can see, China and India have a lot to gain if they cooperate with one another. The two nations really have no inherent and fundamental conflict of national interests except that (1) India is illegally occupying Chinese territory of South Tibet; (2) India is harboring the Dalai Lama’s separatist/terrorist group who has been waging terrorist attacks in China in the 1960s and 1970s, and more recently (3/14/08) in Lhasa, and etc. I think that India is testing Chinese people’s patience, please don’t forget that India has much worse separatist, terrorist, and secessionist problems than China does and there are more than 500 separatist/terrorist/secessionist groups in India. If China decides two can play this little game and pay India back in kind, India would have much more and bigger troubles than China has with the little nuisance of the Dalai Lama.
Myra asks:” Everyone. Do you see the creation of an eventual Asian block (made up of a variety of combinations of alliances including India/Pakistan/Iran/China/Russia/SCO members) that leaves little or no room for the United States or Europe?”
A whole slew of disputes, historical grievances and regional flashpoints weigh down on all major Asian countries. Conflict is not inevitable but nor is it inconceivable. If it were to occur – over Taiwan, say, or the Korean peninsula or Tibet or Pakistan – it would not simply be an intra-Asian affair. The outside world would be drawn in.
The US and EU both have an interest in maintaining strong positions in Asia and they may actually prevent the formation of an Asia Union to preserve their own interests. US overtures to India, India-China rivalry, China-Japan mistrust and Korean hatred of Japan can all be used to thwart the emergence of an Asian common market that keeps out the US and Europe.
Seriously, I have so many friends who are Indians and we get along great…however when I go to the internet there so much hostility between Indians and Chineses. I plan to go to India to see the Taj for my honeymoon…should I be worry? In China Indians are looks at the same as any other foreigners.
“This new reality highlights the importance of Pakistan as a regional player in South Asia and upsets what India’s national security adviser called New Delhi’s “pre-eminent Position” in the region”
- Posted by Riaz Haq
Pakistanis seem to be jumping in excitement, to take great credit for something in which their input is nothing but negligible. It seems, they would like to take the credit for Sri Lanka’s defeat of the LTTE just like they take complete credit for the defeat of the Russians in the Afghan war. To term Pakistan as a ‘Regional player in South Asia’ at a time when it’s struggling to stave off failure & bankruptcy, is quite outrageous.
Mortal:
“To term Pakistan as a ‘Regional player in South Asia’ at a time when it’s struggling to stave off failure & bankruptcy, is quite outrageous.”
-well, Riaz has nicely highlighted Pakistan’s assistance to the Sri Lankan government in its effort to root out the LTTE. As far as India is concerned when the conflict ended, Indian Air Force flew in a team of doctors with some relief supplies. So who did the fighting? who provided arms and training? Atleast its good India is playing little role post conflict. So I would re-state what Riaz stated, Pakistan definitely is a major regional player holding the key to a peaceful South Asia. It was again highlighted during the recent Pak-Afghan-Iran trilateral summit in Tehran.
India learned its lesson when the IPKF could not do anything to the LTTE and after Rajiv Gandhi got assassinated. The LTTE had become a sinister outfit. It was like the LeT, highly trained and motivated. There was a fear that the LTTE was spreading its tentacles inside the southern state of Tamil Nadu and it might lead to the formation of a greater Tamil nation, comprising of India’s southern state and northern Sri Lanka. The LTTE realized that without annexing the Tamil Nadu portion, it did not have the chance of forming a Tamil nation inside Sri Lanka alone. Rajiv’s assassination completely wiped out sympathy of the Indian Tamils and the local political parties began to stay away from the LTTE. So it lost vital support from India at a crucial time. If India was like Pakistan and sustained its support for the LTTE by providing weapons and training, Sri Lanka could not have wiped them out, whether they had Pakistani weapons or Chinese weapons. It is good to see India deciding to stay away from the problem. Mind you, Sonia Gandhi who controls the ruling Congress Party at the center is a direct victim of LTTE’s assault. She never allowed the Indian government to interfere and help this terrorist outfit, leading ultimately to its defeat.
Sinhalese hate Indians because of historic reasons that goes beyond 1000 years. The Tamils and Sinhalese have waged wars against each other, with each one emerging victorious. Anyway, India’s non-interference is a good start. For Asian amity, every country has to try non-interference in others’ affairs. Then countries can settle their issues.
China is not a threat. It is an economic and military power and its needs for resources are increasing. So it is doing what the Western powers were doing – building allies, create conflict, sell weapons, mess up the governments, assassinate leaders and force them to fall in line. China is no different. We just need to adjust to their emergence as a global power. We have done that with other powers. It is not a big deal.
Myra, this is hypocrisy!
In your last blog, you had accused the bloggers of exceeding the scope of topic. But here you are doing so.
The topic is: “Pakistan: Now or Never?”
Why do you repeatedly and deliberately try to pit India against Pakistan? And now China! What sort of journalistic satisfaction you get by this?
People in India feel offended when compared to Taliban Pakistanis or oppressive communist Chinese. We look at US and EU as our examples and follow them, NOT Talibans or communists.
Please respect Indian values, stay within the scope of the topic and desist from casting India against the communists or Talibans.
Mortal says, “Pakistanis seem to be jumping in excitement, to take great credit for something in which their input is nothing but negligible.”
Don’t take my word for it. Pay attention to what India’s national security adviser and former RAW chief have to say.
Alarmed by reports of Pakistani arms supplies to Sri Lanka in 2008, India said it wanted Sri Lanka to treat Tamils with dignity and also voiced concern that Colombo’s arms purchases may upset New Delhi’s “pre-eminent position” in South Asia. “We are facing a situation where the ceasefire (in Sri Lanka) could collapse. This could lead to a flashpoint,” National Security Adviser M.K. Narayanan said while delivering the 25th Air Chief Marshal P.C. Lal memorial lecture.
India refused to supply what it considered “offensive weapons” to Sri Lanka and opposed any military solution of the “ethnic conflict” while urging Colombo to devolve autonomy to the minorities.
Indian analyst and former RAW chief B. Raman recently summed up India’s geopolitical stance toward Sri Lamka in the following words: “India’s interest in the island is partly emotional and partly strategic.The emotional interest arises from the fact that India has a large Tamil population in Tamil Nadu, a southern province, who have ethnically and linguistically much in common with the Tamils of Sri Lanka. Any policies of the Government of Sri Lanka, which affect the Sri Lankan Tamils, have an echo in Tamil Nadu. Hence, the close Indian interest in the problems and the well-being of the Sri Lankan Tamils. Strategically, the Sri Lankan Government has been cultivating China and Pakistan to keep India in check. It has good political and economic relations with China. It has invited China to construct a modern port in Hambantota in southern Sri Lanka. It has invited the Chinese to help it in gas exploration in areas which are close to India. Similarly, there is a growing military-military relationship between Sri Lanka and Pakistan, which worries India.”
Riaz Haq writes: “Alarmed by reports of Pakistani arms supplies to Sri Lanka in 2008, India said it wanted Sri Lanka to treat Tamils with dignity and also voiced concern that Colombo’s arms purchases may upset New Delhi’s “pre-eminent position” in South Asia.”
This RAW official worked during the Congress government headed by Indira Gandhi and later her son Rajeev Gandhi. During their tenure, they envisioned themselves as world leaders like Tito, Nazer of Egypt etc. So they threw their weight in international issues. During their time, India would always condemn any act by the US and its allies. So this official is writing from that stand point. The Gandhis wanted India to be a regional power and they did this by thrusting India’s weight into some of the neighboring nations, Sri Lanka included. Rajeev Gandhi shut off road access to Nepal once.
Times have changed. New Indian leaders from humble back ground have emerged and have led the nation. And as a result, India knows its place and does not throw its weight around like before. India’s non-interference in Sri Lanka’s final rout of LTTE is an example of this. Countries always have interests in securing balance in their favor and they get involved in neighborhood issues clandestinely or overtly. But India no longer flexes its tiny muscles overtly. There is a lot to be done at home and our leaders for the past two decades have been focused on those more.
The cold war has ended and geo-politics has changed accordingly. India is now respected by the US and its allies. Without having to throw their weight around, Indian diplomats are able to bring needed respect for our nation. That is good enough. We have a long way to go towards progress and we should not engage ourselves in others’ issues as a result, except for humanitarian reasons.
Mauryan: You argue, “This RAW official worked during the Congress government headed by Indira Gandhi and later her son Rajeev Gandhi. During their tenure,..”
OK, but what about the current National Security Adviser M.K. Narayanan who agrees with B. Raman? Is he, too, living in the past?
Myra
@1962
—-There are no ‘burning’ issues in India, even kargil & 26/11 has cooled off…the point is that we were stupid & naïve to trust the Chinese then & thus it’s prudent on our part to be at guard at all times against them – their on & off statements on Arunachal & above all they proved us right when they on the sly were tryin to stall the Indo-US nuclear deal, where in the climax they had to come in the forefront out of sheer desperation.
@ problem with the rising trade with China…
—- It’s China which is the one benefiting in trade, chemicals, electronics etc. but India is a small fry in their books & frankly as of today India’s no match to china economically, but in an economic face-off India looses nothing, neither will it pinch china.
@eventual Asian block
—-Russia still wields a lot of influence on China / India / Iran /SCO excluding Pakistan but on whom China holds sway, to a certain extent yes, the Asian block does exists.
Myra,
My response to your questions.
1) “Is the 1962 war still a burning issue, or does it seem too far in the past to be relevant?”
- The 1962 war is long buried. There are some unresolved issues such as the border dispute in Arunachal Pradesh(to name one).
2) You ask, “Isn’t the problem with the rising trade with China that India is mostly exporting raw materials while importing manufactured goods from China?”
- Yes, it’s a problem because of two broad reasons; difficulty in competing with China’s pricing structure and relatively poor productivity in mass manufacturing. I’ve read in passing in business magazines.
3) “There have been suggestions lately that China has begun to let Pakistan down”
- The more relevant question, Myra, is has Pakistan let China down. China finds links of Uigher terrorists with groups in Pakistan. Remember Beijing Olympics? China has virtually bought half a dozen small countries, built their infrastructure, sold weapons to their governments for cheap and proliferated sensitive technology if required. Pakistan happens to be just one of them. China is an ‘all-weather’ friend to many such left-outs. Pakistan needs China. China does not need a go-between.
4) “Do you see the creation of an eventual Asian block”
- No, not in next decade at least. But, politics is the art of the possible. Never say never.
India and China has border disputes, which need to be solved mainly about Arunachal Pradesh and Aksai-Chin.
The 1962 war happened because of India’s forward policy and Nehru’s naivity that China will not respond. One should also see in India China relationship that China withdrew from Indian held territories after the war.
China also solved its border disputes with other countries and I guess slowly the matters with India too will be resolved. It has acknowledged India’s sovereignity in case of Sikkim and the same thing will happen with Arunachal Pradesh. India will have to forego its claim on Aksai-Chin inreturn. That is what will happen most likely.
As far as regional clout is concerned, their is no doubt China is the bigger country here, whether it be in terms of size, economy or military power. This has happened mainly because economic liberalisation in China started atleast 13 years before India started its liberalisation programs. And India is still playing catch up with its neighbor.
Indians see China more as a competitor than as a threat, though some analysts keep making comments both in India and China, but in my opinion it is more of a posturing rather than anything else.
As far as pakistan is concerned, frankly I don’t see much of a change for now. We need to atleast reach to the level which we were able to build during Musharaf’s time. Given the current situation it will take some time.
All countries look for their own benefit and if US is more inclined to do business with China and Pakistan the its understandable.
In my opinion, India too should start rebuilding its ties with Iran and Russia. This is not to counter US and China’s growing ties or US-Pakistan relationship but it simply makes sense to have good relationship with countries in your neighborhood. Moreoever, India should also actively pursue companies in the west for nuclear power generation technology and infrastructure.
Things are already looking better in the immediate neighborhood with the new PM of Nepal being considered close to India’s congress and Left parties. Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh is also considered to be favourably inclined towards good relationship with India and with the end of Sri Lankan conflict India can now more freely engage with the Sri Lankan government for developing closer trade relationships.
We can wait for the military rule to be over in Myanmar to improve the ties, till then India can use the golden rule of non-interference.
As far as Pakistan is concerned, its ties with China and US will remain the same as it is now.
Riaz Haq
—Pakistan is most welcome to take the credit of eliminating the LTTE & also as the ‘neo-regional power’, for all we care… India’s never aspired to be one, we do wish the Sri-Lankan’s all the best.
@ “The reality is that India has about…”
—-Well, since we have it, we park it wherever it’s feasible to us, now if my neighbour is agitated & paranoid of it , there’s surely very less we can do about it.
I see this is the beginning of a new global era in military and political power balance – China and US as a Power-Dipole Pak as a small friend. In this case…As in the past India could perhaps counter-balance by befriending Japan/Russia/Germany/France/EU on one hand. Brazil/Saudi/Mexico on the other hand.
Your take on this?
Riaz Haq asks: “but what about the current National Security Adviser M.K. Narayanan who agrees with B. Raman? Is he, too, living in the past?”
A lot of people are living in the past. RAW is not as powerful as it is made out to be. They are government officials and take their orders from the Defense Ministry and the Prime Minister’s office. And today the people in charge of those ministries do not have the same world view as Mrs. Gandhi and her sons. Mrs. Gandhi preferred socialism so that backwardness and poverty could be sustained and she could hold on to power. None of the Prime Minsiters today have such ideals. India has changed. Therefore my request to Pakistanis like you is to see that change and change your attitude towards India. For the past 20 years, India has moved on a very different path. That is why the voters elected Mr. Man Mohan Singh’s party for stability and peace. If our neighbors observe the changes in our country and change their attitudes,goodwill will ensue from all sides. I am hoping Man Mohan Singh brings the back channel diplomatic efforts on Kashmir to fruition. Hope I have made myself clear.
It all depends on what happens INSIDE China.
Remember that becoming a superpower is not important, sustaining it for a long period is. (eg: USSR v/s USA).
We all know how that ended. Some lessons to draw from there is:-
Internal changes – Certainly there are some parallels between the USSR and China. China one day has to make that leap from communism to a democracy. How will things go then? Maybe the country will be stable but will it want to be a superpower? China has always stayed within its boundaries for centuries.
Democracies are more resilient – India has already paid the democratic deficit. It is on more surer footing to grow on a sustained pace. Moreover, demographics favor India over China due to their stupid 1-child policy, which is now leading to premature graying of their society. As for Pakistan, they can benefit if they remain a democracy and not slip into a Afghan like situation.
So I think this debate is way too early, next 20 years will really tell the difference how Asia changes.
Myra, this is HYPOCRISY!
In your last blog, you didn’t like when some people went outside the topic. Clearly, here you are violating your own rule.
Topic is: “Pakistan: Now or Never?”
Please stop casting India against commis or Talibs. You are deliberately casting India against the Talibs or commis for some self pleasure or career objective.
It is an insult to any civilized country to be cast against the Talibs or Commis.
War, if talking about it , worring about it and fear for it even in your sleep. It will happen.
Try not go consider it a means to an end.
USA opened up China to the world, and hoped to profit and make more money. Its greed knows no bounds. Now, it has been outsmarted by the Communists, as they can discipline their folk with an iron hand, while Americans have no disciplie whatsoever, only greed. So now, USA is standing in front of China, with a beggar’s bowl.