As encounters go between the leaders of India and Pakistan, the meeting in Russia between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Asif Ali Zardari — their first since last November’s Mumbai attacks — was a somewhat stolid affair.
It had none of the unscripted drama of the handshake famously offered by Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf to Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee when they met at a South Asian summit in Kathmandu in January 2002, while the two countries mobilised for war following an attack on the Indian parliament in December 2001. Musharraf’s gesture made little difference in a military stand-off which continued for another six months.
Nor did it carry the warmth of a summit meeting between Vajpayee and then prime minister Nawaz Sharif in Lahore in 1999, which raised high hopes of a breakthrough peace deal between India and Pakistan. Those hopes were dashed months later when the two countries fought a bitter conflict in the mountains above Kargil, on the Line of Control dividing disputed Kashmir.
But for all its absence of drama, or more precisely because of this, did the meeting between Singh and Zardari lay a more solid foundation for what is likely to be a long and difficult process of repairing relations?
The two leaders stopped well short of resuming a formal peace process broken off by India following the Mumbai attacks, and Singh delivered a stern warning to Zardari that Pakistan must not allow militants to operate from its territory. “I am happy to meet you, but my mandate is to tell you that the territory of Pakistan must not be used for terrorism,” he told Zardari at a meeting on the sidelines of a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Yekaterinburg, in Russia.
But officials nonetheless held out the prospect of another meeting between Zardari and Singh at a summit of the Non-Aligned Movement in Egypt in July and said that senior officials would hold further talks to exchange information on terrorism. Semantics aside, that means the two countries are talking again after a deep crisis in relations following the Mumbai attacks, although India has insisted it will not reopen the so-called composite dialogue peace process until Pakistan takes action against the Lashkar-e-Taiba militant group it blames for the assault.
So where do they go from here? Analysts see little hope for now of the two countries being able to pick up where they left off in a peace process which some say had nearly led to a breakthrough on Kashmir.
But there is increasing debate about how the two countries might improve the way they engage with each other to get out of the on-again, off-again turbulent peace process which has failed to deliver a settlement in more than 60 years.
And that is where the Yekaterinburg meeting — stolid, cautious and lacking in drama — might prove to be a turning point.
“Mr. Singh is trying to set out a coherent Pakistan policy,” former Indian ambassador G. Parthasarathy wrote in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal. “To resume the formal dialogue process, careful preparatory work behind the scenes would be necessary.”
“As we learn from the recent past and look ahead, India must reconsider three core assumptions about the peace process. The first is the belief that we are negotiating with a coherent entity that is capable of making rational choices. Whether we should engage Pakistan or not is a question that makes sense only if treat our western neighbour as a black box,” wrote Indian strategic analyst C. Raja Mohan in the Indian Express.
“New Delhi must instead recognise the enormous internal divergence in Pakistan towards India and develop an approach that helps reasonable voices across the border prevail over the incurably hostile ones,” he wrote. ”In short, the very purpose of our engagement must be to produce a systemic change in Pakistan. It stands to reason then that we must not suspend the engagement every time India’s adversaries put up an obstacle.”
Signs of a new and more methodical approach that might yield results for people in both countries seeking peace? Or too slow and too cautious for Pakistan’s civilian government, which would like to see an early breakthrough to ease tensions on its eastern border as it tries to beat back Taliban militants on its western border with Afghanistan?
(Photos: President Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajapayee shake hands in Kathmandu, January 2002; Vajpayee meets Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif at Lahore summit in 1999; Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Asif Ali Zardari in Yekaterinburg, 2009)
Trackback
32 comments so far
Previous | 2 | 1 | Next
If any one was wondering what one means by “using terrorism as an instrument of state policy”, Riaz Haq has clarified it for every one.
Jammu Kashmir state will remain an integra part of India. We’ll discuss with those living in the state within the frame work of Indian constituition. There is no need to discuss Kashmir with Punjabi terrorists.
If this is not satisfacotry to you and if you threaten you will sponsor more terrorism. We have bad news for you. We’ll make you pay for it..You are already paying a dear price.
On a side note did you address the “root cause of terror” in Swat valley? LOL!!
Today’s issue of Daily Times has an editorial on South Punjab turning into next Swat valley. Try addressing the root causes of terror in South Punjab.
- Posted by RajMyra,
I’d like to suggest a great book published on jihad in Kashmir. It’s written by a Pakistani scholar, Arif Jamal, who has interviewed thousands of mujahadins over the years. It shows how Pakistan, since 1947, has been using jihad as a state policy in Jammu and Kashmir. It’s an eye-opener and a must read for journalists and policy makers alike.
Here is the link to amazon:
http://www.amazon.ca/Shadow-War-Untold-S tory-Kashmir/dp/193363359X
- Posted by Nikhil@Unless New Delhi seriously engages in political dialog with Pakistanis and Kashmiris to resolve the underlying causes of terror, the groups such as LeT will continue to cause havoc and they’ll try and precipitate a full-scale war between India and Pakistan that could be a big disaster for both and lead to many unforeseen negative consequences for the region and the world.
- Posted by Riaz Haq
Riaz Haq:
The above should read as:
- Posted by rajeev“Unless New Delhi seriously engages in political dialog with Pakistanis and Kashmiris to resolve the underlying causes of terror, the groups such as LeT, SPONSORED BY PAKISTANI ARMY ISI/ARMY BY SIPHONING OFF THE FINANCIAL AID GIVEN BY THE WORLD FOR CIVIL DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS AND ANTI-TERROR ACTIVITY INTO BUILDING MILITARY INFRASTRUCTURE AIMED AT INDIA AND PRO-TERROR ACTOVITIES AIMED AT INDIA, will continue to cause havoc and they’ll try and precipitate a full-scale war between India and Pakistan that could be a big disaster for both and lead to many unforeseen negative consequences for the region and the world.
Riaz Haq,
First, no one disputes, including India, that the Kashmir dispute has to be resolved through dialog. The difference lies in how the dispute will be resolved, how the control of the kingdom of Jammu and Kashmir will be shared and how many local political players will be involved in the talks.
Second, the LeT is not a Kashmiri movement. With Pakistanis, Arabs and Afghans in its cadre, the LeT was created by the murky Pak security establishment. LeT is based in Pakistan and continues to enjoy state support. There is little India can do if Pak runs with the hare and hunts with the hound. Unless such groups are not diluted, talks between India and Pak will continue to derail and mistrust will prevail.
Third, history has shown that Pakistan takes action against militants when it’s either sedated with billions of dollars in foreign aid or threatened to be taken back to Stone Age. Or, may be both! India, unlike the US, does not have the luxury to convince Pak with either of these tools of persuasion. India hopes that sanity will prevail among those who occupy the chairs of power in Rawalpindi and Islamabad.
- Posted by NikhilThe Obama administration has wisely realized that war on terror and US response as defined by Bush-Cheney is futile and the underlying causes of terror have to be dealt with through political/economic track (80% of the effort) along with a smaller military component (20%) as outlined by Patraeus. There are reports of dialog between Americans and the Taliban in Afghanistan, along with increase in economic/reconstruction aid on both sides of Pak-Afghan border.
But Indians are still stuck in the past and still continue to harp on the war on terror without paying much attention to dealing with the underlying cause of Kashmiri freedom that fuels anger and resentment against India.
That’s where India’s institutional inertia comes in. Unless New Delhi seriously engages in political dialog with Pakistanis and Kashmiris to resolve the underlying causes of terror, the groups such as LeT will continue to cause havoc and they’ll try and precipitate a full-scale war between India and Pakistan that could be a big disaster for both and lead to many unforeseen negative consequences for the region and the world.
- Posted by Riaz HaqRiaz Haq,
I wonder what inertia, in your words, does India display? In 1999, India kick-started the Indo-Pak peace process which is going on and off for last decade. Each time, some progress is made, the terror groups based in Pakistan scuttle it by attacking India. Remember Kargil, Indian Parliament attacks, and the recent Mumbai attacks?
The Pak elite and Pak military are responsible for the risk of destruction in the sub-continent. Unlike Pakistan’s strategy, India’s strategy in Kashmir is risk averse and devoid of military inputs. Pakistan has war-gamed many scenarios in Kashmir - including terrorism - has experimented with some, and has failed in every single attempt.
- Posted by NikhilPakistan has used terrorism backed with nuclear deterrence to leverage on India and to intimidate India. Neutral observers have noted that this Pakistani strategy has miserably failed.
India has grown stronger economically, and from a diplomatic, military standpoint. Besides the strategy has backfired on Pakistan since the country is unravelling internally.
Some in Pakistan still hope to use terrorism to influence India. And think this threat will still influence India’s conduct. These people are still living in fool’s paradise indeed.
- Posted by BulletUmair: I will be damn surprised and unhappy if RAW agents are absent in Afghanistan. They will be there for defense purposes to gather intelligence before ISI targets Indian embassy in Kabul. RAW was in Pak when ISI was targeting Punjab. That phase is over. Similarly ISI is all over in Bangladesh, SL and India. You don’t need embassies to field spies. But there is no evidence for the RAW’s disruptive activity in Afghanistan or Pakistan. Your inside information about evidence against India is useless in the absence of a single link—Now do not give me ISPR website—give some 3rd party evidence. Paranoia has no cure.
- Posted by rajeevUntil there is sustained engagement leading to a resolution of Kashmir issue to the satisfaction of all parties, it can be predicted there will be more attacks like the Mumbai and parliament attacks, even if Pakistan government tries to crush LeT and other Kashmiri support groups in Pakistan. Radicalization will intensify on both sides of the border, making a nuclear confrontation a real possibility. As Stephen Cohen recently said, “Not a few Indian generals and strategists have told me that if only America would strip Pakistan of its nuclear weapons then the Indian army could destroy the Pakistan army and the whole thing would be over. This of course is both silly and dangerous—and could lead to a catastrophic misjudgment when the fifth India-Pakistan crisis does come. We were close to one last year, I have no doubt that the people who tried to trigger a new India-Pakistan war will try again.”
I hope the “New Delhi’s institutional inertia against Kashmir talks” as Japanese journalist/analyst Yoichi Shimatsu puts it will not lead to mutually assured destruction in the Subcontinent.
- Posted by Riaz Haq@Umair
“The root cause of the problem lies elsewhere, the world has a greater collective responsibility to eradicate terrorism. For Pakistan, it is ensuring terrorists dont get a foothold in the country and that Pakistani soil is not used for terror attacks against any other country,individual or group.”
-Yes TTP is Pakistan’s tool against India and now Pak’s enemy as we speak. Per se TTP did not attack India but India recognizes them terrorists even before you did that, but reverse is not true. India’s worry is LeT and its splinter groups, and JeM and HuM. Pakistan right now is not interested to call them terrorists. Read Myra’s analysis that I posted. So calling India and Pakistan have common terroists is the “presidential” way to put it and let us leave it to them. Us bloggers should spaek our mind and last time I asked you, you did not recognize LeT as terrorist. So where is the common enemy here? BTw, it is time to cut this “non-state actors” crap. whom are we deceiving?
@Last but not the least Rajeev, the idea is for both India and Pakistan to find common objectives. Unless there are common objectives to work together, there will always be competing interests. Both countries will continue to get into each others way, hindering each other’s progress.”
-India and China are successfully partnering in economing growth, despite the existing disputes. So why not Pakistan?
- Posted by rajeevRaj
Thank you for sharing the Times of India link which accuses of presence of terror camps inside Pakistan.
Please see below the link of Indian embassy website in Kabul, Afghanistan:
http://meakabul.nic.in/
Click on left tab ‘consulates’ Indian consulates are present in four cities : Mazar-i-Sharif, Herat, Kandhar, Jalalabad. ISI virtually knows every street and corner of these cities. ISI ran the whole show during Soviet occupation through Mujahideen. India is using its consulates as a diplomatic undercover and aiding Baluch sepratists (accusation we hear from ISI). When CIA deputy direcctor arrived in Islamabad with proof of (some ISI) involvement of Indian embassy in Kabul last year, he was confronted with Indian involvement proof in cooking up trouble in Baluchistan.
Now again, the west also knows India and Pakistan need to get in good terms to end this. President Obama repeatedly says that both India and Pakistan are the friends of US and both need to reduce tensions for a stable South Asia. When common people learn of these issues (the Indian consulates/the alleged terror camps) etc. It does not help in creating peace, in reshaping public opinion and policy making.
Can you just answer me why on earth does India needs a consulate in Kandahar for instance? There are almost 2500 Canadian troops mostly stationed in Kandahar, its a volatile region. The area is former Taliban stronghold, now an Indian consulate over there, where an Indian Airlines plane was also hijacked and parked during Taliban regime. All this doesnt sound right, does it? I dont expect any one from that area would apply for an Indian visa (student/medical etc).
Probably some of the diplomats are undercover RAW agents supplying weapons to Baluch insurgents? maybe not.
- Posted by UmairMaybe their are terror camps inside Pakistan, Pakistani Kashmir, maybe not. It sounds tricky.
Umair,
The word Karma is almost 7,000 years old, yet, it is lacking in your instruction manual(s), you can choose whichever one you think I mean. What it means is that what you sow, you reap and what bad things you do, have a consequence, a very real, believable and and perceivable one.
Pakistan is fighting the Taliban on the western front, yet foments, supplies, trains, nurtures, mentors proxy armies, ready to start a “COLD START” doctrine on India at the order of the Uniformed and corrupt Punjabi Mafia Junta running Pakistan.
You talk about common objectives, yet you continually dodge, or fail to acknowledge the proxy armies, this is what Singh wants, he wants them smashed, dismantled and to be no more.
This is Pakistan’s “Karma”. As your army insincerely lies and continues to grow and fuel proxy armies in Kashmir, “Karma” is taking a huge toll on your economy, the image of Pakistan and the Safety, and security of its people as they continue to get butchered and slaughtered.
We ask that the Pak Army please start to act responsiblity, turf your proxy armies and madrassa jihadi factories and then and only then we have a basis for peace between India and Pakistan.
Terrorism applies to BOTH sides of Pakistan. Insincerety will reap Karma. Please write that word down, contemplate its true meaning, and step back, far back and try to understand, what consequences mean.
Again, feel free to quit misslabelling terrorists as freedom fighters. We are ok, if you put your Azad terrrorists in Pak Uniforms, at least that would be honest terrorism.
- Posted by Global Watcher