Reuters Blogs

Pakistan: Now or Never?

Perspectives on Pakistan

13:04 July 9th, 2009

Lashkar-e-Taiba: assessing the threat

Posted by: Myra MacDonald
Tags: Pakistan: Now or Never, , , , ,

Having asked last month whether Pakistan was in a position to take on the Laskhar-e-Taiba, an obvious follow-up question was to try to assess how much of a threat the militant group blamed for last year’s attacks on Mumbai represents to the West and to India.

According to analysts who track the LeT closely, the Pakistan-based militant group is not the new al Qaeda. It is still very much focused on Kashmir and India, while its single-issue agenda along with the humanitarian work carried out by its Jamaat-ud-Dawa charitable wing mean it is more comparable to the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas than to al Qaeda.

That said, it has a formidable infrastructure and global network of sympathisers and fund-raisers that could be used by other groups which do want to target the west, and that in itself makes it a threat.  What also comes across in talking to people about the LeT are concerns about the group going rogue, either because it slips out of the control of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, or because splinter groups break away from the leadership of its founder, Hafez Saeed, and become a danger not just to India and the West, but also to Pakistan itself. (As discussed in this earlier post, deepening instability in Pakistan’s heartland Punjab province, where the LeT is based, would dwarf anything seen until now in the tribal areas.)

In the meantime, Praveen Swami, associate editor at The Hindu, has written an analysis of the Indian Mujahideen and the Lashkar-e-Taiba for the June edition of the CTC Sentinel (pdf document). It is a must-read for its wealth of detail about the LeT’s connections in the Gulf, as well as its description of how the LeT nurtured the Indian Mujahideen within India itself.

“From its origins in Pakistan’s Punjab province, the LeT has grown into a transnational organisation,” he writes. “This development is of concern to authorities across the region for three reasons. First, the evolutionary trajectory of the LeT will make it increasingly resistant to counter-terrorism action in any one country or decapitation attempts targeting its leadership. Second, the LeT’s ability to recruit from a pool of well-educated, affluent sympathisers in multiple countries gives it dramatically enhanced reach and lethality. Third, the LeT could spawn and sustain the growth of quasi-independent jihadist movements outside of Pakistan.”

Do also check out Swami’s rather prescient article in the Hindu which he wrote in 2007warning about the risks of LeT militants reaching India by sea – just as they did in last November’s Mumbai attacks — rather than following the traditional route of crossing the Line of Control dividing Kashmir.  “So far, Pakistan appears to have moved to restrain the Lashkar from acting on its publicly declared desire to execute major terrorist strikes in India — but done little to dismantle its capability to do so,” he wrote in 2007. “As the detente process proceeds, India needs to ensure that Pakistan is urged to take this next, necessary step.”

Finally, for an insight into how the U.S. administration views the Laskhar-e-Taiba, it is interesting to see Tim Roemer, President Barack Obama’s choice for ambassador to India, bracketing the LeT along with the Taliban and al Qaeda.

According to this report in Pakistan’s Dawn newspaper, asked what India could do to improve its relationship with Pakistan, Roemer said: ”There’s more we can do to share information about our common threats in that area, which are al Qaeda, the Taliban and Lashkar-e-Taiba, and try to prevent the next attack from taking place, or deflect that next attack.”

Much to talk about when the foreign secretaries and then prime ministers of India and Pakistan meet next weekon the sidelines of a Non-Aligned summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt.

(Reuters file photos: Mumbai skyline; LeT commander Lakhvi and U.S. ambassador-designate Tim Roemer)

56 comments so far

Since the discussion has gone way off track (from Laskhar e Taiba to Buddhism) I am closing comments on this post.

- Posted by Myra MacDonald

Mohammed Anjum
@How many Buddhist monasteries were destroyed or converted to Hindu temples in your glorious country?”

–Taliban chief Mullah Omar, Pakistan’s friend, intentionally dynamited and destroyed the Buddhist statues in 2001 after the Taliban government declared that they were “idols” ( forbidden under Sharia law).Did Pakistan say a word or kept quiet due to some alliance? After all they are on the list of UNESCO World Heritage Site.

- Posted by rajeev

Also read up about the Thuggee cult in India that killed millions of people in the name of Kali. Read works by William Sleeman. So much for a glorious past.

- Posted by mohammed Anjum

@Global Watcher and Keith
Fate of Pakistan will be decided By us not you. we are a great nation and we will prove it.
Mr umair is very correct in pointing out the exit strategy. First Great Britain then soviet union and (now U.S.A).!!! i hope my American Brothers understand sooner then latter that Afghanistan is graveyard of super powers..!!!

- Posted by OM

A nuclear armed 170 million strong Pakistan is a far cry for you guys. Pakistan too is reaching limits, we know it is official American policy to prop up India as a strategic ally in the region. Pakistan too will not run out of options ever.
- Posted by Umair

I understand that you’re a Pakistani because like most of your comrades (my humble observation), you seem to be low on facts & reality and high on worthless octane & meaningless rah rah. If you think that we’re incapable of cleaning up the mess in your terror-infested rogue/failed country, you’re truly delusional & ignorant. If we really want to, we can reduce Pakistan to ashes within no time but the truth is that we don’t wanna get our hands dirty at this time so we’ve hired your army to do it for us. Besides, we don’t need to act militarily. All we have to do is cut off your life-support (aid), impose severe sanctions & trade embargoes & officially declare you a terror-sponsoring ‘rogue nation’ (which is no secret) & then you will see your nation of 170 million radicalized, uneducated, uncivilized, unemployed & impoverished people slit each others throats & choke to death. I really don’t think you guys wanna be in the situation. All you have to show for in your 60 years of existence is: Chinese nukes made from stolen technology & that is all that most of you Pakistanis keep chest thumping about. No progress, no economy, no literacy, no other positive achievement to speak of. Just those stupid nukes, that’s all.
As far as India is concerned, it is our natural ally. A progressive & rapidly developing country with genuine democratic & secular credentials. We don’t need to prop India up because it’s taking it’s rightful place in the world on it’s own merit. If you Pakistanis really wanna do something positive for your country, change your belligerent attitude & befriend India because you guys surely cal learn a lot from your neighbor.
(PS: Pakistanis, please don’t bother responding cuz I don’t have the time to waste by engaging in you ignorant & senseless rhetoric. thanks)

- Posted by Daniel Harris

Mr. Singh: “You asked “How many Buddhist monasteries were destroyed or converted to Hindu temples in your glorious country?”

Answer is NONE. Hinduism is not forced on anyone.If you have data present it. Otherwise Please shut.”

Here is a reference:

http://www.ambedkar.org/buddhism/K_Jaman adas_Proves_Tirupati_Temple_As_A_Buddhis t_Shrine.htm

Religions simply do not disappear like that. Conversions happen both by peaceful and violent means. Kings and emperors play a huge role in it. I am giving just one example since this discussion is changing its course. Just because history has been cleaned out, it does not mean that things did not happen. Again all you Indians act as though everything was golden in your country and try to make others like cruel monsters. First dig up and learn your history first. I have been following a lot of things inside India from one end to another and I do not see anything that will show you guys in great light. You are just as ordinary as anyone else.

- Posted by mohammed Anjum

well i can tell one thing i don’t like fact-less discussions.if u like India is better than Pakistan..its fine, i respect your opinion.
“Time is the master of all judges,it divulge only truth “.
few things i like to make very clear here. A.Q khan is no thief, Why? because he didn’t stole centrifuges. if he stole them then why he was not caught, interrogated or blamed in 70’s when he supposedly done it.WHY after 20 years…..the answer is simple he didn’t do it. And even in 2000 he was blamed for giving the technology to other, which even he regrets.
all who read my post Pakistan is a reality and we are here going to stay here for a while. we have a same enemy(Osama-tons, i didn’t use Taliban because Taliban means “students”, Unfortunately some of them are misguided). your behavior is making it difficult for us to support you. when you say it Pakistan’s fault you are just making more osama’s. if u think by tell us to do more will win you a war then stop dreaming. do you have any idea how many muslims has died over the last decade????

- Posted by OM

Keith:
“You should be hoping that the when the west leaves there’s a stable and strong Afghanistan in place. And you should be praying that your government and security services are actually helping to bring that outcome about and are not hopefully not undermining those who are actually trying to do good work there.”

-Keith, DG ISPR Maj. Gen Athar Abbas in a recent interview with CNN clearly said the situation in Baluchistan is due to some one working out of Kabul. NATO and US are harboring the enemies of Pakistan right under their noses in Kabul then it is expected from Pakistan to cooperate. Remember ISI is the veteran of Soveit-Afghan war, history could repeat itself yet again. Pushtuns must be given representation in national matters in Afghanistan, kick out the Indians from Afghanistan. Again propaganda against Pakistan’s nuclear program is surfacing, mercaneries are being trained to attack Pakistan’s nuclear sites. All sorts of propaganda and criticism is being labeled against Pakistan. So much talk of Pakistan being a rouge state and you guys are still so dependent on Pakistan Army and ISI. If you dont stop harboring the enemies of Pakistan in Kabul, Islamabad can also make some dangerous plans against you.

and it is Gen. Abbas clearly said there is limit to the extent Pakistan can support the mission in Afghanistan. Believe me today the success of US/Canada and NATO in Afghanistan pretty much depends on Pakistan support. That is why you always make Pakistan an escape goat for coalition faliures in Afghanistan and then lecture us to accept India as a regional policeman. First get your priorities straight, decide if you are true ally of Pakistan and than ask for Pakistan’s cooperation. Decide who is your greater friend, India or Pakistan. India is a big market for economic gain, but if you want security you want good relations with Pakistan too. If you realize Pakistan as an ally we will willingly help you, otherwise we know how to deal with anti-Pakistan mercaneries in Kabul.

- Posted by Umair

“Umair bhai,

I sincerely appreciate your service to our country. You have handled all the Indians on this forum so well. It takes just one intelligent Pakistani to handle many imbeciles.

Like you have said, it is time we got out of our dependency on the US and its allies. We have China as the emerging regional power and our staunchest ally. Our nation should look forward. We need to build a strong Islamic alliance with all Central Asian countries and Iran. Pakistan can provide the necessary military training and technology. Islamic nations should stick together and form an economic and military alliance. We can help each other better. Leave the Americans to belly dance with Indians.”

Wow Anjum, you started showing your hidden pakistani and jihadi colours. “Imbeciles”??? How low can you get? You get out of your dependancy on US and its allies and your begging bowl is gonna be as clean as a slate.

Islamic alliance with Iran? Are you joking? Your people massacred them just because they were from a different sect. I think Iran is closer to India than you guys.

And you are talking about china? Dont forget your beloved Zardari came back with the empty bowl the last time he went there. He dint even get to meet the high command.

You form an islamic alliance of what not… people don’t care as long as you don’t blow up their backyards using jihad. Of course the Americans can belly dance with the Indians, at least they have something in common which is alien to you. Democracy.

Look like you people are deluded and fed your madrassa education to such an extent that you have stopped thinking logically. Wish common sense prevails upon ordinary pakistanis unlike you people, for the good of south asian region and for the entire world.

- Posted by wooferswitch

Just do not assume that your land has a glorious history. Do not look into history because it has enough records to expose your ugly side as well. In the case of Pakistan most of the minorities either converted to Islam for practical reasons or moved out of the country. No one was slaughtered or forced as you are conveying.

- Posted by mohammed Anjum

Mr Anjam

Unlike a typical pakistani I dont live in the past, future is where we are focussed. The persecution of Buddists that you talk about has happened in the period between 400 CE and 1000 CE. I dont see how you attribute those acts to the current generation of Indians just because its suits your purpose?

You also conviniently chose to overlook the revival of Buddhists in India in RECENT TIMES.

http://202.28.52.45/vesak50/article/pdf_ file/ChangingDemographyofBuddhistPopulat ioninI.pdf

Stop using history as an excuse, its your country current mindset and behaviour that I abhor. Minorities in your country are being persecuted for thier faith, such behaviour in the 21 century is unacceptable.

Even today there are secratarin conflicts in Khurram agency between Shia and Sunii and it has been carrying on for the last 60+ years.

For some reason your people believe that your religion and your sub-sect is superior to everyone elses and you wont stop untill everyone accepts your faith by whatever means necessary(I refer to pakistan’s version of Islam we are lucky to have sensible Indian muslims).

Despite all the rehtoric you have shown absolutely nothing to substantiate your claims of superiority and infact provided evidence to the contrary (in the past and in RECENT TIMES).

Can explain what you mean when you say “Pakistan most of the minorities either converted to Islam for practical reasons or moved out of the country.”

What are those practical reasons???(saving ones life is a practical reason too) Why did they feel the need to move out??

Refer to this website for gleeful news of how minorities are treated in pakistan in RECENT TIMES
http://www.christianmonitor.org/

Also I specifically mentioned not to respond in snippets, if you are unable to answer all the questions by yourself, then by all means ask others to help you form a group think about it together for as long as it takes and try and answer the questions honestly.

If you by any chance miraculously realise that you are on the wrong side of the argument, then by all means feel free to mend your ways and join the rest of the civilized world.

Its the FUTURE that holds promise of growth, peace and presperity.

- Posted by indian1127

Mr genious Mohammad anjum writes,
The sub-continent was mostly Buddhist. Now Buddhist population is negligible. How many were forcibly converted to Hinduism? How many Buddhist monasteries were destroyed or converted to Hindu temples in your glorious country.

Mr lanjum,
I am sure you are talking about conversions before independence,so you must be aware that this amazing land(subcontinent) was not having a rouge state pakistan before independence,and everything was controlled by British fr 200 odd years and Mugals who came from central asia.They were the ones who converted lots of hindus to muslims like you,but now you think your ancestors were born that way.The truth is your ancesters were hindus who were forcefully converted into muslims like you.They were indian muslims.
Indian subcontinent was always habitated by hindus which you can crosscheck in ancient history and civilisation books.
But we were always a pluralistic society from ages….accomodating various people of different races and culture.
Don’t think that you can get away(with all the good things) from the 5000 years old history of this place just because you have your own land for 50 odd years.So whenever you speak something about india,take into account that your great grand parents,grand parents and possibly your parent were indians.i am sure when you ask your parents their country of birth you will get an answer that is going to haunt you and your coming generations for years to come.(remember,There was no porkistan on the face of this earth,ONLY ONE INDIA).
Every place has some good things,a few bad things and thats the way it was and it will be.
Nobody says we were or are perfect but we try and aspire to be reasonable to the world and espeacially our fellow ex-indians who from last 60 odd years call themselves pakistani(and rightfully so).
MAY WISDOM PREVAILS….

- Posted by Aman

y dont pakistan ask china to give back their land that is under chinese control.y should india give away kashmir . THE JEWEL OF INDIA.about the naxals y dont india attack the source that is suppling them weapons and training.

- Posted by rajen maharaj

@ Umair

“You want to try to take matters in your hands? I dont think it would work. Just concentrate on an face saving exit strategy from Iraq and Afghanistan first. A nuclear armed 170 million strong Pakistan is a far cry for you guys. Pakistan too is reaching limits, we know it is official American policy to prop up India as a strategic ally in the region. Pakistan too will not run out of options ever.”

Dont try and test the patience of the US. Stop ranting about your nuclear weapons. Just listed out the nuclear prowess of the US for a reference (an unofficial count may be more).
You guys have not dropped one yet. So we dunno if the stolen technology of thief A Q Khan, really works. They already dropped two.

Nuclear program start date October 21, 1939
First nuclear weapon test July 16, 1945
First fusion weapon test November 1, 1952
Last nuclear test September 23, 1992
Largest yield test 15 Mt (March 1, 1954)
Total tests 1,054 detonations
Peak stockpile 32,193 warheads (1966)
Current stockpile 4,075 active, 5,535 total (est.)[1]
Maximum missile range 13,000 km (8,100 mi) (land)
12,000 km (7,500 mi) (sub)

And this time don’t expect member countries to back you if you get nuked. And thank your stars that the US is a responsible country, not a rogue nation with a begging bowl like yours. You guys have already run out of options. Stop throwing tantrums and behave responsibly. My perspective is that their exit strategy was foiled because they teamed up with the wrong “ally”. When they do realize that (which of course is coming in due course), you guys are in the dumps.
And of course it is better for the US to have India as the strategic ally. It would benefit them more. I think they should team up with Iran and Afghanistan too. It would be even better to flush Osama out.

- Posted by wooferswitch

@ Anjum
“The sub-continent was mostly Buddhist. Now Buddhist population is negligible. How many were forcibly converted to Hinduism? How many Buddhist monasteries were destroyed or converted to Hindu temples in your glorious country? You will not have an answer because all that history has been carefully removed.”

Please go through the link before you blame Hinduism for destruction of Buddhism. Get off your madrassa education and find some neutral source.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decline_of_ Hinduism_in_Pakistan

Though the reference shows the decline of Hinduism in pakistan, it has a small paragraph under the heading “Islam”, and proves what a blatant liar you are. Show us a reference that said Hinduism was responsible

“The only Buddhists in India are those who converted from the Hindu outcastes. ”

The said reference and quote was spoken by Dr B R Ambedkar who had worked for the benefit of outcasts in India.

Quote: “there can be no doubt that the fall of Buddhism was due to the invasions of the Muslims.”[18] He wrote: “Thus the origin of the word ["but", Persian for "idol"] indicates that in the Muslim mind idol worship had come to be identified with the religion of Buddha. To the Muslims they were one and the same thing. The mission to break idols thus became the mission to destroy Buddhism. Islam destroyed Buddhism not only in India but wherever it went. Bactria, Parthia, Afghanistan, Gandhara and Chinese Turkestan (…) in all these countries Islam destroyed Buddhism.” : Unquote

Now can you show me a link from “neutral” sources to refute this claim? Or should i think you are so deluded by your madrassa brainwash that you cannot fathom the fact of atrocities by your rulers. Get a life.

- Posted by wooferswitch

@The sub-continent was mostly Buddhist. Now Buddhist population is negligible. How many were forcibly converted to Hinduism?”
-Mohammed Anjum

Mohammed Anjum: Why don’t your revered Muhammad bin Qasim and Mahmud of Ghazni and other such goons who ultimately ended self-governance of Buddists in Central Asia through all sorts of means.

- Posted by rajeev

Mohammed Anjum,

Cut your rant. Buddhists were never a majority in India and they were never forced to convert to any religion in the country. Contrary to your argument, Buddhists are thriving in India and many more continue to arrive from Tibet.

- Posted by Nikhil