With India and Pakistan trying to reach a rapprochement on the sidelines of a summit in Egypt, it’s worth reading this summary by the Council on Foreign Relations - based on interviews with five South Asia experts - on why it matters across the region as far as Afghanistan.
The tensions between India and Pakistan have a powerful impact on stability in Afghanistan. They prevent the Pakistan Army from focusing fully on taking on the Taliban and other militant groups; the two countries are rivals for influence in Afghanistan itself; and both remain vulnerable to a fresh flare-up should Pakistan-based militants launch another Mumbai-style attack on India.
“Thus, the long-standing dispute over Kashmir is one part of a wider regional dynamic that has direct implications for Washington’s ability to support a stable Afghan state and to address the threat posed by terrorist groups in South Asia,” CFR quotes its own South Asia specialist Daniel Markey as saying.
“And until a settlement is reached, there will be no dearth of “spoilers” eager for opportunities to inflame India-Pakistan relations,” it quotes Georgetown University’s Howard Shaffer as saying.
The five experts concur that the United States’ ability to influence relations between India and Pakistan is limited — India has always rejected outside mediation in the Kashmir dispute — but suggest Washington might be able to nudge the process along discreetly from the sidelines. And with the death toll rising among foreign troops in Afghanistan, the United States is likely to be trying to do everything it can to encourage stability in the region. (U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visits India this week.)
The five experts are less specific about how they expect India and Pakistan to reach agreement, although as discussed in an earlier post, there is much talk about whether the two countries can build on a draft roadmap for peace established two years ago. If the U.S. administration of President Barack Obama can convince the Pakistan Army to end support for militant groups, and help Pakistan’s civilian government win control of national security policy from the military, says Indian analyst C. Raja Mohan, “Obama will find it no problem at all to convince Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to sign off on the Kashmir deal that he has already negotiated.”
AND THEN DOWN THE INDUS
Another must read this week is this article on the growing row between India and Pakistan over water supplies. It provides the best background I’ve read on the tensions between India and Pakistan over the rivers – including the Indus – which start in the Himalayan mountains and then flow through the Indian side of the former kingdom of Jammu and Kashmir before reaching Pakistani territory.
Until now, the two countries have been able to manage their shared rivers through the Indus Waters Treaty (pdf document), which after being agreed in 1960 under the auspices of the World Bank has survived two full-scale wars and many spikes in tensions. But as the glaciers which provide the source of the rivers recede, while demands for water for power and irrigation rise, the treaty is beginning to look increasingly frayed at the edges. Given all the other causes of instability in the region, the last thing South Asia needs are water wars.
(Photos: British soldier in Helmand; Secretary of State Clinton and President Obama; the source of the Nubra river in Siachen)
Trackback
33 comments so far
Previous | 2 | 1 | Next
The Western effort in Afghanistan has been under-resourced since 2001. In addition the Afghan govt and state are pathetic and Karzai is an ineffectual leader. These are the reasons for soaring violence in Afghanistan, it has very little to do with Kashmir.
- Posted by Aamir AliMr. Anjum
While there is a debate about RAW involvement inside Pakistan thesedays, but let us talk about what is already certain. That certainity is the the role of LeT, grown and nurtured on pakistani soil, in Mumbai 26/11, admitted by Pakistan and now confessesed by Kasab himself. Are you ready to call LeT as terrorist organization and wish that each and every single terrorist of this org is wiped out. Your answers and attitude reset the mind of Indian populace and this extends to the level if Indian govt since the leaders are born out of you and me.
- Posted by rajeevI suppose ISI ‘creating and nurturing’ the Taliban that has bitten Pakistan, hard, is not sensationalist enough. The same Taliban who put Afghanistan under their own sharia, but was too much for the emotions of Pakistanis to handle when it reached Swat and neighbouring regions. However, the ‘images’ of atrocities from these regions did the image of Pakistan a world of wonders.
It was the ‘image’ of Pakistan that your Mushy boy was afraid would get tarnished when the GANG RAPE victim, Muktar Mai was prevented from travelling abroad to tell her story.
You wish to talk of benevolence, then let us do so. Pakistan created the Taliban that hosted Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. They tortured and murdered many people based on race and religion. After the US forces and Northern Alliance reached Kabul, many of those Taliban had fled and some people had taken the law into their own hands and killed those Taliban who stayed.
India has 4 consulates in Afghanistan and not 10-15! Don’t they teach you maths (that wonderful Arabic invention) in your madrassas? India with permission from the elected government of Afghanistan got contracts to build infastructure. India has also built hospitals where FREE check-ups and treatments are offered to the Afghans.
Why did you Pakistanis not build roads and hospitals in Afghanistan? Were you waiting for hand outs from USA or Saudi Arabia?
- Posted by bulletfishMr. Anjum
Would you like to comment on massacre and rape of millions (number varies but definietly is high) in East Pakistan by Pakistan Army that takes pride in being an Islamic republic? Bangladesh is waiting for an apoplogy. But I guess Pakistanis worry about Taliban not LeT, Palestine/Kashmir not banglasdesh, Balochistan. Is it that have grown up on a history examplified by your text books that teach you that India invaded Pakistan and Pakistan won the war? I pity you.
- Posted by rajeevMr. Bulletfish: “Why is this the ONLY article on this subject? Why is the subject of this article not in any other international papers?
You really think you can high-light one article to make yourself look all pure, righteous and true?”
Western media relies on sensational news that suits their emotions. If any news fits what they are projecting, it gets vast attention. Right now any news that is favorable to Pakistan does not sell. As simple as that. Dawn is a very respectable news paper. But our Prime Minister has handed the evidence to your Prime Minister officially instead of going to the press and creating the sensation that is prevalent today.
If Dawn reports something, there sure is a large element of truth in it. So wait and see. The US might be playing a role here to hush things up. It wants to project India as a benign and benevolent nation. Image is a big thing in the US. They always do things for an image. Indian involvement in clandestine sabotage can never be ruled out. After all RAW is an intelligence and covert operations agency. And one can expect them to do such things.
- Posted by mohammad Anjummohammad Anjum,
Why is this the ONLY article on this subject? Why is the subject of this article not in any other international papers?
You really think you can high-light one article to make yourself look all pure, righteous and true?
Here are 3 for you to read and think about:
-Pakistan Objects to U.S. Expansion in Afghan War. (International Herald Tribune, 21/07/2009)
-No let-up in US drone attacks in Pakistan.
(Gulf Times, 21/07/2009)
-Swat valley refugees reluctant to return home.
- Posted by bulletfish(13/07/2009, Times(UK))
Here is a link for my Indian friends that shows evidence of Indian involvement in terror operations inside Pakistan. So kindly do not assume that your country is all full of innocence.
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn -content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/12-p roof+of+raw+involvement+in+terror+acts+g iven+to+india–bi-08
- Posted by mohammad AnjumMyra:
@Given all the other causes of instability in the
region, the last thing South Asia needs are water wars.”
–If Pakistan openly supports anti-India terrorists in the name of Kashmir freedom, is it not fair that India starts to use water as a tool to hit pakistan. It is better than pakistan’s pro-terror policy and the onus will be on Pakistan to cut Jihadi BS to get water from India.
- Posted by rajeevIf only Pakistanis and our all knowing western experts realise that Kashmir is NOT the source of conflict.
Obsession of Pakistan with Kashmir and India has made one thing equal with India in exporting to the world- IT.
For Indians it is Information Technology
- Posted by NithinFor Pakistani it is International Terrorism!
@“How many times can a man turn his head and pretend that he just doesn’t see?”
- Posted by Alethia
-Does this not actually fit Pakistan more than it does India. As an outsider, that’s the least you can do.
@I don’t think that Pakistan’s influence is necessary to keep the Kashmir issue alive. The people who live in Kashmir will do that. That is only one reason why India should address the problem.”
- Posted by rajeev-You have quite a good knack of appeasing the terrorists and worse terrorsm. Perhaps it looks all play until it hits home.
Alethia,
The Kashmir issue is burning primarily because of the notoriety of Pakistan since independence. India has successfully addressed territorial insurgencies with the exception of Kashmir. Please read the work of Pakistani scholar, Arif Jamal, before you pour your borrowed lines of poetry and half-baked wisdom.
Link, http://www.amazon.com/Shadow-War-Untold- Story-Kashmir/dp/193363359X
The Kashmir issue is layered and too complex for India alone to be held responsible. If the solution was under India’s control, Pakistan can tomorrow accept the LoC as a de jure boundary and move on. Clearly, there are disagreements on how to solve the issue with three parties on the table.
Besides, why be selective in joining the cries of the dodgy Kashmiris while ignoring the plight of the Balochis? Baluchistan vehemently opposes Pak rule and it continues to burn for freedom for last 6 decades. The Balochis are trampled by the Pak army with fighter jets and helicopter gunships. Should the popular song by Paul and Mary not be sung for the Balochis?
- Posted by NikhilHere is an interesting column on the topic:
http://www.dnaindia.com/opinion/column_k ashmiris-chase-a-mirage_1274327
Kashmiris chase a mirage
EXCERPT:
“They naively believe that once azadi comes, they can revert to a composite Kashmiriyat. This is precisely what Jinnah believed could be done with an independent Pakistan, but the mullahs had other ideas.
No pandit or Ladakhi or any of the other ethnic populations of Jammu & Kashmir will ever want to stay in this place. No secular humanist can support an azadi project that is rooted in exclusivism when the world is talking inclusivism.”
- Posted by RajJust to clarify my above comment, I do not think the U.S. should attack Pakistan for 911, but they should be forced to rid all forms of terrorism from their soil, including ALL proxy army assets.
- Posted by Global Watcher