Pakistan: Now or Never?
Perspectives on Pakistan
Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and the doomsday scenario
When Secretary of State Hillary Clinton raised the possibility in April of Islamist militants taking over Pakistan and its nuclear weapons, her words were dismissed as alarmist – and perhaps deliberately so as a way of putting pressure on Islamabad to act.
The problem with Pakistan is that it is almost impossible to come up with a view that is not either alarmist or complacent. It is such a complex country that nobody can agree a frame of reference for assessing the risk. It is the base for a bewildering array of militants including Afghan and Pakistani Taliban, al Qaeda and anti-India groups, yet also has a powerful and professional army which would be expected to defend to the last its Punjab heartland and nuclear weapons against a jihadi takeover. Its potent mix of poverty and Islamist sympathies among a significant section of the population make it ripe for revolution, yet it also has a strong and secular-minded civil society which was willing to go out into the streets earlier this year to demand an independent judiciary.
You can assess the risk in Pakistan by looking at the rate of decline in stability there, and that was faster than anyone expected over the past year or so until a military offensive against the Taliban in Swat which began in April halted the slide.
Or you can look at the worst case scenario, of Islamist militants taking over a nuclear-armed Pakistan, and decide that even if that outcome is unlikely, the potential dangers arising from it are so great as to put Pakistani stability at the top of global risks.
In an essay in the National Interest, Bruce Riedel, the former CIA officer who led a review of strategy in Afghanistan and Pakistan for President Barack Obama, lays out the implications of that worst case scenario.
“A jihadist Pakistan would be the most serious threat to the United States since the end of the Cold War. Aligned with al-Qaeda and armed with nuclear weapons, the Islamic Emirate of Pakistan would be a nightmare. U.S. options for dealing with it would all be bad,” he writes.
And if the United States were to try to invade “the Pakistanis would, of course, use their nuclear weapons to defend themselves. While they do not have delivery systems capable of reaching America, they could certainly destroy cities and bases in Afghanistan, India, the Gulf states and, if smuggled out ahead of time by terrorists, perhaps the United States. A victory in such a conflict would be Pyrrhic indeed.
“Of course, the hardest problem would be the day after. What would we do with a country twice the size of California with enormous poverty, almost 50 percent illiteracy and intense popular hatred for all that we stand for after we have fought a nuclear war to occupy it?”
Riedel’s essay, titled “Armageddon in Islamabad” goes some way to answering the oft-asked question of why western troops are fighting in Afghanistan when al Qaeda and its allies are believed to be based in Pakistan. It also helps explain why the United States is so keen to see a peace deal with India that might help stabilise the country.
“A jihadist, nuclear-armed Pakistan is a scenario we need to avoid at all costs,” he says. That means working with the Pakistan we have today to try to improve its spotty record on terrorism and proliferation. There is good reason for pessimism. Working with the existing order in Pakistan may not succeed. But there is every reason to try, given the horrors of the alternative.”
Do read it in conjunction with this article in the CTC Sentinel (pdf), in which Shaun Gregory, a professor at Britain’s Bradford University, assesses the risk of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons falling into the hands of Islamist militants. The nuclear weapons, he argues, are well guarded by the Pakistan Army against the internal threat of a seizure by Islamist militants. But this also means that they could not be spirited out of the country by a third party, or destroyed, in the event of a state collapse.
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Follow Pakistan: Now or Never?
To prevent China from stepping in, I am sure the Uighur riots have been triggered by the RAW/CIA/Mossad nexus in Western China. Why would Pakistan be engaged in that region when it is fighting the Taliban?Once the provinces inside Pakistan begin to burn and spin out of control, the Israel/US/Indian forces will try to take out our nukes in the pretext of them falling into the wrong hands. Once the nukes are removed, Pakistan can be stamped with boots.-Mohammad AnjumCan you share what you are smoking with the rest of us? That kind of paranoia might honestly require medical attention. You should get that checked out. And while you are gone, don’t worry we aren’t going to make a brag for your nukes. As long as you aren’t proliferating, smuggling them to terrorists and repeatedly threaten to nuke your neighbour of a billion souls next door, the rest of the world is not to worried. It’s talk like your delusional ramblings here that make us wonder whether Pakistanis are sane or if we are dealing with another Iran.——————————————Yes something really needs to be done fairly quickly, the auto industry in the US has collapsed, Ford and GM have filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy and are restructuring. Canadian communications giant Nortel has gone broke and sold out to Europeans, the US economy is in tatters despite multibillion dollar stimulus packages.- Posted by UmairDon’t worry about us. We’ll be fine. In case you haven’t heard Canada still has RIM among many other multinationals and Ericsson is buying up Nortel and setting up shop in Ottawa. And we are already starting to emerge from the recession:http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/ 2009/07/23/bank-canada-economy-recovery. html———————-Is the situation in Pakistan too severe? How many times did doom and gloom has been predicted about Pakistan, six months back the prediction was Pakistan will implode, collapse and bankrupt in six months. Today, Pakistan is still standing, managing its Internal displaced people, fighting counterinsurgency grappling with economic challenges. Once again it has been proved Pakistan is NOT going to falter.- Posted by UmairPakistan is still standing because of an IMF bailout and other assistance by the FDP. Can you imagine what would have happened if those packages had not come through?—————————–Obama and the world leaders might want to sort out their economic woes and climate change problems, do something about world peace, reduce their nuclear stockpile of weapons. Pakistan knows how to take care of itself, maintain balance of power and keep its enemies in check.- Posted by UmairIn case you haven’t read a newspaper lately, Obama and the other Western leaders are doing their best to tackle many of the problems you mention. Obama has even gone so far as to pledge a further reduction in the US nuclear weapons stockpile. The concern today is not about state on state nuclear war. It’s about the ability of emerging nuclear powers to be responsible with nuclear. Pakistan’s history on this front hardly inspires confidence. Hence the concern of the world (and not just Western nations by the way). And if the ramblings of your countrymen like the one above are any indication, things are going to get worse not better in the years to come.
The current situation in pakistan does not augur well for the future between the two nuclear armed south asian neighbours.Pakistan always tries to rationalise their attitude towards India by using the “K” word but they are not ready to face facts.The frankenstein monster of “terrorism” which they had created to wage a proxy war against India and achieve other strategic objectives has come back to bite them hard.My message to the civil society of pakistan which i think has got some sanity is that your threat for God’s sake is not India but these islamist militants and army-isi elements that back these filthy animals who will one day gobble up your country so please focus on taliban,let,jud,jem and all extremist elements in the army, isi who will never allow the democratic sytem to evolve and sustain in pakistan (as has been the case in the past) and finish them because this a terrorist syndicate we are dealing with.I know that the road ahead for a fragile pakistan civilian government is not an easy one but atleast try and make things easier for yourself by coming out of the India syndrome and getting your priorities right.I appeal to the people of pakistan that our societies are not much different from each other so let us stop this war mongering and try and help each other in flushing out these terrorists.India has it’s own problems but here it is the law of land that finally prevails but i am afraid that it is not the same in pakistan. There is growing anarchy in pakistan and If 26/11 like attack is repeated anywhere in the world be it India, US,Russia,UK then Pakistan will be converted into a radioactive hell by America and all these global powers and i am afraid China will not come to pakistans rescue as some of the pakistanis are claiming.India does not want this but if pakistan fails to act then the world will so the sooner pakistan acts against these extremists the better it is for them as the biggest threat is to them and not anyone else.Pakistan always says that they will nuke India in case of a war but don’t they have the common sense to understand that India has now achieved second strike capability with the emergence of a nuke submarine and also has a decent missile defence capability and all the nuclear sites of pakistan are well within the striking range of the much more sophisticated IAF and last but not the least can their economy which will put uganda to shame sustain or afford a war.The answer is a loud and clear “NO”.Pakistan wake up before your country is run by the goons.
Arun KumarKeep your hollow threats to yourself and dont tell us the strength of IAF, we know how strong it is with its junk MiGs taking the lives of Indian pilots. Pakistan is not responsible for terrorist attacks elsewhere, and remember Pakistan too has nuclear weapons and knows how to deal with its enemies. We want to live in peace, with honour and dignity. Stop your chest thumping hollow rants of ‘we will do this, we will do that-” if you can do anything screw it, just do it. So far you are all talk but no action.Long Live Pakistan!
Umair,Please don’t be a hypocrite. What about your:-Pakistan nukes-Pakistan F-16s-Pakistan 170 million strong population-Pakistan forcesNone of the above are helping you against the Taliban nor your country’s economic failings.
@Pakistan is not responsible for terrorist attacks elsewhere”-posted by Umair-Well then consider that Kashmir has been solved.
Boy does the West love scary dreams or what. No Pakistani is going to allow any foreigner to grab our nukes no matter what, so why all this talk of “securing” or “evacuating” or “falling into terrorist hands?”. Pakistani dont give a damn.
Rajeev”Well then consider that Kashmir has been solved.”-Rajeev,not quite yet, Kashmir is an outstanding dispute and scores will be settled. Kargil brought India to negotiaitng table, its upto you if you want to solve it on table or the battlefield. But Pakistan needs a solution of Kashmir.
Umair Wrote:”Kargil brought India to negotiaitng table, its upto you if you want to solve it on table or the battlefield. But Pakistan needs a solution of Kashmir.”Keep on telling lies and we will bust em right here, till you lose all of your credibility or gain some of the reality.India and Pakistan were already speaking on Kashmir, under AB Vajpayee’s Govt, you know we resumed the bus service and Kashmir trade channels, even allowed your actors and singers to make some money from bollywood.Coming back to Kargil, How did Kargil (a battle you lost) bring them to negotiation table, when they were already at it. Would you enlighten us ?India was ALREADY negotiating it on TABLE while Mushy bring the WAR. Its PAKISTAN who don’t want a solution of Kashmir, because if Kashmir drama is over, how will Pakistan Army eat up country’s resources.You guys even did not own the Kargil earlier. Starting a War and disowning it is the MOST LOWLY THING a General can do. You refused to accept dead bodies of your soldiers cowardly during that war and Now you are bragging that Kargil brought us on Negotiation table.
@Rajeev“Well then consider that Kashmir has been solved.”posted by rajeev-Rajeev,not quite yet, Kashmir is an outstanding dispute and scores will be settled. Kargil brought India to negotiaitng table, its upto you if you want to solve it on table or the battlefield. But Pakistan needs a solution of Kashmir.- Posted by UmairUmair: you did not get my message. you said “Pakistan is not responsible for terrorist attacks elsewhere”. Umair, Pakistan is a terrorist-sponsoring country.Period. There is no polite way for me to say it. Well if not, then what’s the problem. What did India delink from peace process?–terrorism. So you are conveniently repeating Musharafs’s statement “Kargil brought India to negotiating table”–That guy is guilt-ridden general who is making desperate attempts to earn brownie points by misleading Pakistanis through these achievemnets. You are in mess precisely because of him–he did not have the spine to say no to WOT. Here are the facts–India-Pakistan were happily on the negotiating table and then Musharaf did Kargil. He can feed this stuff to you guys alright, but do not serve to anyone else. Only potential value of Kargil war was to disrupt the already going on peace talks. Look at the chronology and then make statements. Rest, why don;t you use little restraint in shouting empty statements of bravado. They have comical value to me to any Indian to say the least! and I am not getting into this old off track discussion from you–I had that in detail in the past. I have my quota of the jokes for the day. Wars-overt or covert-never significantly harmed India. And pause to look at the damage it did to pakistan. Overt created B-desh, covert put you in this trouble. and now the angle of terrorists from Punjab/Pakistan is showing up. The only thing that can save Pakistan from this is to kill all the jihadi leaders in multiple strikes. It is not if it when that terrorists will start working in Punjab like in SWAT. The beginning is there from the planned killing of Christians.
Vajpayee and his govt never negotiated over Kashmir, they only held talks with Pakistan. Kargil brought the Indians to the Kashmir table with the aim of resolving the dispute.@Daniel HarrisSix months ago, folks like you were claiming that Pakistan will implode in six months and be taken over by Taliban. Time for you to eat crow.
Aamir Ali,The rest of the world will keep in turning and Pakistan will keep on begging. Your country is is being held back from the brink of bankruptcy by US aid, IMF loans and Saudi oil payment defferments. It is the US and the IMF that decides how your country’s economy is run. Keep begging for relief from the terrorism YOU created that is eating you up.
Myra,Any future financial aid should be tied to transparent and open denuclearization and demilitarization from Pakistan, under the IAEA and international monitors.In return, India should give security guarantees, that it will not attack Pakistan unprovoked, except in retaliatory fashion only.This will keep Pakistan honest and allow it to focus its energies on productive, non-military and non-jihadi endeavors.
@BulletfishUS aid is voluntary and IMF loans are small. Pakistan can survive without both but if folks are willing to help then why not ? Pakistan certainly deserves a few dollars as opposed to bailouts in the hundreds of billions for insurance companies and banks.Getting back to topic, this doomsday scenario makes for entertaining reading and even a good Bollywood film, but is very unrealistic. Nukes are not grenades to be stolen in some raid and then used the next day.
@Getting back to topic, this doomsday scenario makes for entertaining reading and even a good Bollywood film, but is very unrealistic. Nukes are not grenades to be stolen in some raid and then used the next day.- Posted by Aamir AliDear Aamir Ali: I agree it is etertaining but only until one does get vaporized by the heat of the nuclear bomb. Actually nukes can be used vey much like grenades, if you ever heard about the dirty bomb—No nuclear warhead, no missile, no sophisticated technology needed. Suicide bombers will kill each other for the honor of using Dirtybomb instead of regular bomb. Now all that is needed is committed terrorists, terrorist sympathizers in the Nuclear facilities and the right (wrong) kind of political atmosphere for them to collaborate. Not a fictional stuff; more probable than knocking down WTC–who thought about that.@US aid is voluntary and IMF loans are small. Pakistan can survive without both but if folks are willing to help then why not ?—say thanks for the aid atleast. you will collapse without aid. Foreign aid, like a drug, dictates your survival and the bad news is you are addicted to it and take it for granted and feel no shame in asking. you guys call USA imperialist but the way you ask money, you yourself act like another state of USA. Once the aid is completely stopped, Pakistan will become a jungle and you guys will kill each other for self survival. China gives money where money grows, not where it goes in black hole–so do not count on them. Alternative is not so easy for you which is to grow up and be self reliant. My wish on Pakistan’s independence day is stable Pakistan, but only if that does not hurt India. Feels bad to say that since India is 1 day younger than Pakistan.
PM Gilani calls for urgent US aid for IDPs without stringshttp://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/conne ct/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakist an/09-gilani-calls-for-aid-without-strin gs–szh-09PM Gilani urges U.S. to write-off debthttp://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-A fghanistan-Pakistan/idUSTRE5543JX2009060 5Pakistan Air Force will induct four Chinese midair refuellers, four Chinese AWACS, 250 Chinerse JF-17 Thunder fighter aircraft soonhttp://www.sindhtoday.net/news/1/401 82.htmNew Pakistani Govt Motto: “US feeds us proudly, We feed Chinese Proudly”
China arming terrorists now!http://www.forbes.com/2009/08/13/ind ia-china-relations-population-opinions-c olumnists-gordon-chang.htmlAnd saves terrorists at UN too!http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/n ews/india/China-refuses-Indias-request-t o-declare-Masood-Azhar-a-terrorist/artic leshow/4894763.cms
This is a mind opening post. De-nuclearisation of both India and Pakistan is a must. If Islamist are a problem in Pakistan. The Bajrang Dal(RSS, Shivsena and other extreme right wing Hindu groups) are a serious threat to the stability of the world. These groups possess the same evil Al-Qaeda has. They are evil to the core of their beliefs, religion and principles. These are the guys who killed Gandhi. See if they are not going to leave Gandhi do you think they will let the world pass. Another time the BJP led right wing groups comes to power in India the Indian economy will be in a downturn and a destabilization of the world is the only way Indian economy can be brought up. It is simple to understand… blow up a small nuke in New York, business move to Mumbai and Bangalore. Think hard to understand the evil we are appeasing in India.