According to Dawn newspaper, the Pakistan Army is poised to launch a major military operation in South Waziristan, stronghold of the Pakistani Taliban.
It quotes senior military and security officials as saying that the army would launch what it called “the mother of all battles” in the coming days.
“If we don’t take the battle to them, they will bring the battle to us,” it quotes a senior military official as saying of the militants. “The epicentre of the behemoth called the Taliban lies in South Waziristan, and this is where we will be fighting the toughest of all battles.”
“For three months, the military has been drawing up plans, holding in-depth deliberations and carrying out studies on past expeditions to make what seems to be the last grand stand against Pakistani Taliban in the Mehsud heartland a success,” it says.
“We are ready. The environment is ready,” it quotes the senior officer as saying. “It will not be a walkover. This is going to be casualty-intensive hard fighting. The nation will have to bear the pain,” said another officer.
The Pakistan Army is not saying anything in public, and information about its operations in Waziristan is hard to come by since the area is so remote and inaccessible.
But any ground offensive into South Waziristan would be a major escalation in the Pakistan Army’s battle against the Pakistani Taliban, dwarfing its operation earlier this year to clear militants out of the Swat valley northwest of Islamabad.
The army has been reluctant to send ground troops into South Waziristan, instead aiming to seal off the area and rely on airstrikes to target militants. But talk of a possible ground offensive has risen after two bomb attacks last weekend raised fears the Pakistani Taliban were recovering from the death of their leader, Baitullah Mehsud, in a U.S. missile strike in August.
Interior Minister Rehman Malik told me earlier this week that Pakistan was considering whether it needed to launch a full-scale military operation against the Pakistani Taliban, who he described as “the front face of al Qaeda”.
And according to Dawn, “Thousands of army soldiers - two divisions - are now sitting on the fringes of the Mehsud mainland waiting for orders from the high command to move in.”
South Waziristan is believed to be heavily defended; it is larger than Swat and more inaccessible. Its people have always been hostile to outsiders, unlike Swat which was once a tourist paradise before it was overrun by Taliban militants. So any ground offensive would likely cause heavy casualties.
The general view has also been that the army has been running out of time to launch a ground offensive before the winter snows make operations extremely hard and would defer any big moves until the spring. That could still be the case, if it judges that a combination of air attacks and missile strikes by U.S. drones - the latest reported casualty from these was Uzbek militant leader Tahir Yuldashev - is enough to keep the militants at bay and stop them from bombing Pakistani cities.
But Malik said Pakistan could even launch an operation in winter if needs be. “Even in the winter, even before starting winter … if we feel appropriate that this operation is unavoidable, yes, we will consider that,” he said.
The Pakistan Army has years of experience of fighting in winter conditions - along with the Indian Army it became a world expert in high-altitude warfare in the conflict over the Siachen region which erupted in 1984, and it also has troops posted in the mountains along the Line of Control dividing Kashmir - although there has been a ceasefire there since 2003.
So it is not out of the question for the Pakistan Army to launch an offensive that drags into the winter. According to the Dawn report, temperatures in Waziristan can drop to 20 degrees below freezing, with snow setting in towards the end of November — fairly brutal conditions for an offensive, but less hostile in terms of weather than it has had to deal with in Siachen over the years. And Dawn quotes military strategists as saying the weather problem would hit the militants more than the troops, although the former would have the advantage of knowing their terrain.
In its battle against Islamist militants, Pakistan has concentrated on tackling the Pakistani Taliban, which threaten the country directly. That has annoyed the United States, which wants Pakistan to move as well against militants fighting western troops in Afghanistan, including the Afghan Taliban which it says are based in Quetta, in Baluchistan province. India is pressing for action against militant groups based in Pakistan’s Punjab province, including the Lashkar-e-Taiba militant group it blames for last year’s attack on Mumbai.
But for now, attention within Pakistan seems to be turning to Waziristan for what could turn out to be the toughest military campaign in the whole of the Afghanistan and Pakistan theatre.
(File photos:Pakistani soldier in Swat; Pakistan army chief General Ashfaq Kayani with U.S. General David Petraeus; Taliban fighters; author in Siachen)
Trackback
56 comments so far
Previous | 3 | 2 | 1 | Next
Myra,
I missed an important part of your question - about the impact of Waziristan operation on Afghanistan.
Well, even the imminency of this operation alone is having a salutary effect on Pak-Afghan-NATO alliance.
- Posted by Mansoor SiddiquiThis operation will be a major disruption for the Pakistani Taliban in their role as a conduit of support for the Afghan Taliban. This will also foster deeper trust among the Allies. This operation will also prove that Pakistan is not only thinking of its own national interest but also that of its friendly neighbour, Afghanistan. A major success in Waziristan will decimate the taliban numbers and they will learn to their detriment that a determined modern military force will eventually prevail against their ill founded insurgency.
Myra,
Let me respond to your question about the likely conduct of the operation in Waziristan by the Pakistani Army.
1. Taliban Strategy. This operation is not against a dug-in army or a linear defence. Taliban will be staging ambushes on the advancing troops while bringing them on to a system of strong points defence. Their aim is to inflict as much damage as possible on the troops and then break the cordon and dissolve into the surrounding sanctuaries. As long as they escape in good numbers they can claim victory. The consequences for Pakistan of this will be serious, though not disastrous.
2.Pakistan Army Strategy. Scenario A. Going in without substantial help from Lashkars.
Pakistani Artillery, supported by the Air Force are going to unleash murderous bombardment and shelling on the strong points inficting heavy casualties. Then the Infantry operating as the vanguard, supported by tanks (wherever possible) and gunship helicopters is going to swiftly overrun the strong points(6 to 8). Cleansing of secondary objectives will be taken up by a composite force of Frontier Corps and whatever Lashkar that they could muster (7,000-10,000). This operation will result in a higher number of casualties but chances of this succeeding are good.
Scenario B. Going in with a big Lashkar (15,000-20,000).
The pulverising phase will be the same as Scenario A. but the Army will only go for the bigger pockets (4 to 5)and have the reserve troops alongwith the Lashkars for doing a thorough mopping up and enforcing a mobile cordon around the Taliban. This scenario will enable the army to capture a lot of Taliban. Chances of success: good to excellent with fewer casualties.
Most important aspect is the participation of the National Lashkar.
Use of drones will be crucial to take out the leadership.
Operation will probably be over in a week.
- Posted by Mansoor Siddiqui[...] Saudi Arabia, CBS News spotlights — while The Washington Times has Pakistan mounting “an ambitious blitz to rout the Taliban.” German intel has unearthed a new Islamist cell operating from Hamburg — [...]
- Posted by Approaching other nations in peace, while taking national security into account – « Southwest ProgressiveShafkat, you said:
“I pray for this once beautiful country with its beautiful people which has sold its soul to the devil..”
–>You may be right, but avg Pakistani’s choose to keep on seeing India as some sort of green horned devil, hellbent on destroying Pakistan. This absolutely false, incorrect and total propaganda thrust on Pakistani’s so that the Army can get their political support to justify their military budgets, existence and business model.
The people of Pakistan have been lied to by the masters of Pakistan, the Army and ISI and to some extent the Saudi’s who are fueling Wahhabism.
We have a saying in Hinduism, when you see evil in other people, it is actually evil that you are project onto others, which is originating from your own mind and own heart.
The only way to cut the chain from the devil, is people need to start thinking more positively and quit this blind hatred against India, Kaffirs, Israel and non-muslims alike. All peoples are human beings FIRST, before they are christians, muslims or hindus.
The actual devil is within all of us, when we devalue human life, constantly or have been told to devalue other humans who are not as good as us, because they practice a different belief, we become the hands of the devil, when we devalue the human life of other peoples, nations and cultures. With respect to Pakistan, avg Pakistani’s some of them willfully choose to be hands of the devil, perhaps without knowing it, and a misplaced sense of nationality and misplaced sense of religious mission.
When you project negativity towards others, like the militants and some Pakistani’s do, they will always suffer at the hands of their own doing and always fall on their own knife and never end this vicious cycle of hatred that keeps one drunk on venom and unwilling to accept blame for oneself and responsibility, that is the true evil.
Pakistan as a culture, has to break free from the mental shackles of the daily propaganda, that is keeping them from seeing the truth. Until they choose to break that cycle, the collective thoughts and actions of Pakistani citizens will determine their future and the kind of life that they are going to have.
- Posted by GWKeith you said:
“Claiming credit for securing their own country is a bit like a parent who wants a reward for raising their own child. It’s something you have to do, not something that’s optional that you deserve a reward for.
Yet, the moment you start talking to any Pak official about the groups that really bother us in Afghanistan, they either a) change the subject or b) launch into long polemics about how its a complicated situation and the terrain is difficult, and Pakistan’s interest have to be preserved, blah blah blah. ”
–>Thank you first of all for giving sobering doses of reality on these blogs, you always have a direct and clear, rationale for all of your statements and arguements.
Next, you hear certain bloggers saying how many soldiers they have sacrificed, well that is good that they are finally challenging militantism, or at least appearing to, time will tell. My respects to the soldiers and their families, but this Fungus and Mold of militantism was enabled and allowed to grow by the Pakistan Army and ISI itself, as they sat by idly and complacently, even hoping to weaponize the Jihadi’s for the own means in Afghan and against India, the same Fungus and Mold has started challenging the Pak Army itself.
If Pakistani’s are upset about their soldiers dying, they should be, but their anger should be directed at the Pak Army and ISI establishment itself.
Pak Army’s love affair with Islamist Militantism must come to a conclusive end. The world also expects it to finish and destroy all strategic proxy army assets and their training camps, supported, morally or otherwise by the State of Pakistan to wage Jihad on India over the lame Kashmir excuse. I find it hard to believe that Pakistan wastes away more than half its GDP, just to save Indian Kashmiri’s. It is to line the pockets of the Punjabi Army and propagate their business model to keep their own employability and profile high, to suit their political propaganda requirements. Kashmir will fix itself, once Pakistan stops fueling terrorism on India. In the mean time, Obama should cut the U.S. Military loose onto Pakistan and let them go strong arm Pakistan, as necessary to get the job done, in a conclusive manner.
These Islamist people are uneducated idle vacant miscreants, drunk on needing a mission in life. Pakistan is in dire need of education, capitalism and democracy to civilize its population, while the U.S. will civilize the Pak military.
In the mean time, the U.S. troop surge is slated at around 40,000 troops. It should be much more, it should be around 200,000 troops, Afghanistan.
- Posted by GWPak-is-tan … Can someone tell me the meaning of the name ??
Someone tells me it means .. The Land Of The PURE ??
Is this true ??
I pray for this once beautiful country with its beautiful people which has sold its soul to the devil..
Shafkat
- Posted by Shafkat2) Keith, others - do you have a sense of how any operation in Waziristan will impact Afghanistan?
Also interested in anything you pick up on which groups were involved in that attack in Nuristan.
Myra
- Posted by Myra MacDonald
Excellent question Myra. In my view, not much. Which is why I can’t ever understand why Pakistanis want credit for such operations. Ops in places like Waziristan and Swat are largely so that the Pakistanis can save themselves. That’s in the interest of the west, to be sure. We don’t want to have to deal with another failed state. However, it does very little to help us in Afghanistan. We’ve been very clear that the only actions we consider to be truly helpful from our perspective is the PA going after those groups that are wreaking havoc in Afghanistan. That means groups like Haqqani. Till they do that, I doubt anybody is really going to count them as a reliable ally regardless of however many soldiers they lose fighting anti-Pakistani insurgent groups.
Claiming credit for securing their own country is a bit like a parent who wants a reward for raising their own child. It’s something you have to do, not something that’s optional that you deserve a reward for.
Yet, the moment you start talking to any Pak official about the groups that really bother us in Afghanistan, they either a) change the subject or b) launch into long polemics about how its a complicated situation and the terrain is difficult, and Pakistan’s interest have to be preserved, blah blah blah. I can’t buy any of this. If that was the case, does that mean that if Haqqani turned on them the Pakistanis would not be able to neutralize a threat to their own country? So they are either lying to us or they have a monster without a leash that they’re hoping will only keep nipping at the neighbours and not them. Either way, that’s not a desirable position to be in, for those that want to stabilize Afghanistan and want a return to stability in Pakistan.
As for your second question… sorry nothing at this time.
- Posted by KeithAnyone who thinks building a wall is the answer should read the article by Praveen Swami -Posted by Myra MacDonald
By this article, I assume you were telling me that there are alternate routes to Jihad via Gulf. Great surprise :). Frankly, most of the local problems (Indian origin) can be solved by more intelligence on the ground - keeping tabs on SIMI members, profiling for at risk groups, and surveillance on people who travel to Gulf regularly. Unfortunately all this targets minorities disproportionately and we should recognize that this is a short term solution. In the longer run, we need justice, equality before the law and a sense of security for our minorities.
I on the other hand remain haunted by nightmares that another Mumbai 26/11 will recur unless we secure our borders with Pak - land and sea. Pakistan lacks either the ability or intention or both to tackle the Terrorists that use Pak as their base (I do not use the word militant on purpose). And I want no part of the blow back if the US Afghanistan misadventure goes South. Who do you think is next on the jihadi hit list up there with US and Israel? India. And unfortunately, we cannot change our geographic location or neighbors
All I want is to lead my life peacefully - and to the extent that a good security barrier helps us - please lets get it as a starting point.
- Posted by never forget mumbai@Do not assume that the US is the only power that can bail us out. We have China as our trusted allies.”
–Mohammed Anjum
–Means you will not even think (yes think in theory even) of becoming self-reliant. After China, who next?
@Pakistan is easy to blame because no one wants to be our friends at this time.”
–Why not?
@The Americans could have easily taken out OBL and finished the Taliban off in 2001. But they allowed them to escape first and then have been pretending to be chasing them, while conveniently blaming Pakistan.”
–No ISI has (had) the best intelligence as far as A-Q and Talibans are concerned. you took thousand of terrorist in what is known as “operation evil escape” by the West and “operation great escape” by pak generals.
@ As far Afghan Taliban, it is up to the Americans to deal with them.”
–No. Pak created Afgh Taliban in 1994 and they must finish them off, if they are allies.
@If they go to the Russians and others, it is simply more clowns joining he circus.
–more clowns? you mean in addition to Pakistan?
@We are not doomed as you wish. We have the Chinese support and you westerners must really be worried about China emerging as the next super power.”
–always think of dependence. the unrealistic dreams. you can afford to have them–neither your govt nor the leaders have that luxury.
@And Pakistan will work with them (CHINA) to build a new world in which the Western power brokers and their side-kicks like India will be pushed to the fringe.
— Oh the dreams again. When was the last time you BUILT A THING. Reality is staring in the face right now. new world order! Indian on the fringe—-Mohammed, it is time to wake up now! Because realities are based on some actions.
@We are only counting the number of days for your defeated forces to leave from here. As far keeping Pakistan united and rebuilding it, trust me, we will do it.”
–After US/NATO-exit you bring out OBL, Mullah Omar and install them back and the terrorist empire will be back in action. That is the rebuilding you are talking here.
IN nutshell, 62 yrs and you cannot even in theory dream that Pakistan will quit terrorism and become a normal nation. Oh Qaide-Azam Jinnah! what Pakistan have you given to the world? Are you rolling in the grave?
- Posted by rajeev@Rajeev,
I have posted a map before, but it doesn’t work well in a small photo. And re the PA photo, next time I write about Siachen I’ll balance it out with a photo of me with an Indian rifle.
-Myra
Myra: I am so looking forward to your photograph with rifle
Thanks for your involvement in the discussion.
- Posted by rajeevRegards,
Rajeev
Myra:
@On your comments on the electorate not voting for Hindutva, and on Praveen Togadia no longer being a well-known name, I don’t think that comes across in the outside world.
–But what do you know about Togadia, please tell that here. By not doing so you are endorsing the lack of knowledge of the “outside world”.
Why don’t you tell the readers what you said long time ago that BJP with Kashmir backchannel on its resume was in favor of peace with Pakistan (direct contrast to its common image) and is not simple to say it is rightwing—some thing along these lines you said, if you recall. That was in response to my statement on congress vs BJP during elections. Am I right? That would be media helping the issues. Otherwise this discussion is making perception stuff even murkier than it actually is.
- Posted by rajeevAnyone who thinks building a wall is the answer should read the article by Praveen Swami -Posted by Myra MacDonald
—
Not sure how tha article contradicts or opposes the idea of erecting a wall. To reduce pakistan’s terrorist activities in India, the visa regime should be further restricted to screened frail elderly.
Indian groups are neither sophisticated nor capable of doing Mumbai.
Why did pakistan army chose all punjabis for the Mumbai operation you think? There is no way groups in India can undergo such military, naval training and go undetected by Indian security agencies. More importatntly, even the few incidents carried out by Indian-born need logistical support, co-ordination all provided by ISI.
==========================
MR.ANJUM writes–> “When everyone writes us off, we always pull a surprise and we emerge out of any difficult situation.
Do not assume that the US is the only power that can bail us out. We have China as our trusted allies”
=========
THIS IS called delusions of grandeur. Do you think we don’t read newspapers, internet or watch TV? You are eating out of the hands of American and European tax payers as we speak, but say very ungrateful things. China is not feeding you.
YOU do not “emerge out of difficult situation”. You have been bailed out repeatedly by the US and rest of the world for 62 years and you are being kept on life support. Get real.
- Posted by Raj1) Anyone who thinks building a wall is the answer should read the article by Praveen Swami in CTC Sentinel about the growth of the Indian Mujahideen inside India, and Lashkar-e-Taiba’s international networks:
(Scroll down on this pdf document to find the article)
http://www.ctc.usma.edu/sentinel/CTCSent inel-Vol2Iss6.pdf
2) Keith, others - do you have a sense of how any operation in Waziristan will impact Afghanistan?
Also interested in anything you pick up on which groups were involved in that attack in Nuristan.
Myra
- Posted by Myra MacDonaldI agree with ‘never forget mumbai’ we (India) should build a wall along the border. Pakistan has its problems (e.g. Bomb blast hits UN base in Islamabad). I do not like the idea of looking over my shoulder while trying to make a living. I do not want another attack like the Mumbai attack. No talks and no trade with Pakistan until this whole terrorism is over, but that is not going to happen because Pakistan wants to keep some of the terrorist elements it is being told to eliminate to use against India. Pakistan will hide then under a charity umbrella.
If Pakistan Army is going into Waziristan, then are they not a little too late?
- Posted by bulletfishGiven the nightmare scenario painted by keith, can we just build a wall along our border with Pak and be done with them. A wall similar to the Israeli-Palestine separation barrier not our current barbed wire stuff. BTW since the security barrier went up the number of attacks on Israel from Palestinians has come down dramatically - statistics are avbl on Israeli ministry of foreign affairs. Despite the constant left liberal bleeding heart rants against it, the WALL works. I guess it is quite expensive but ultimately should save us a much bigger headache later on. And we can focus on building our nation without having to watch our backs constantly. There remains lots to be done in our country for health care, education, agriculture and law and order and basically the wall will help us get on with our lives. I am sorry to say this but how many of us actually cares about what happens to Pakistan except insomuch as it affects India. I do not.
BTW, a comment for all the people who claim that the US owes a debt to Pakistan for the CIA proxy Afghanistan war against USSR. Its been 20 years since USSR exited Afghanistan and the US abandoned Afghanistan. 20 years! Don’t you think its time u moved on. Just to give u perspective, 20 years ago, Infosys made profits of <Rs 20 million - today they have profits close to Rs 60,000 million.
- Posted by never forget mumbaiKeith…
I think you either are too naive or simply like to look at situation from one dimention or you are simply anti Pakistan. Let me try to answer some of the points you make and please when you read, do it with OPEN mind.
“This op is too little to late. The held off because of Ramadan. They had over a Corps’ worth of men and machines in the area. But wasted time fasting instead of fighting.”
Too little? We have lost over 1900 brave security personells during various operations against the militants, countless loss of civilians from sucide bombings. Do you even know how important Ramdan is to Muslims? the fifth pillar of Islam, secondly ever tried to go out of food and water for over 10hrs? I dont think so maybe you wouldnt be blindley typing if you think before you type. On top of that you want them fight in the heat, in that terrain, without any food. Not forgetting the damage and suffering that will be caused to local civillians in this holly month and maybe you forgetting the public opnion and support matters not everything can be achieved with military operations.
“You can bet that the militants didn’t fritter their time away. They’ve moved on or blended into the population. A few will fight to put on a show but the Paks will have won another battle with a meaningless victory. They won’t have accomplished much in terms of curtailing the insurgency.”
Nor are they fritting in Afghnistan Keith….with so much fire power and worlds best trained soldiers n equipment. As only yesterday 8 Americans soldiers killed and countless afghan soldiers captured.
“And while they talk of fighting, they seem to have no long term plan to stay and rebuild the area (something the west has been demanding for a while). Meanwhile, with every boneheaded operation like this, the credibility of the PA as an ally erodes further.”
What happened to long term plan in Afghanistan what has been achieved? No long term plan after eight long years even Nato n US Genrals do not agree on the strategy how to combat the lethal insurgency and the time is running out. West has the watches but the millitants have the time, if you like Pakistan’s full co-opration its about time you start to look after the intrest of your so called ally then simply pointing fingers and playing the blame game. By the way this taliban is not yesterdys creations, nor created by solely pakistan but the seeds were sown by the Americans, Saudis and partly ISI.
“If the Pakistanis were more reliable, the west would most certainly not have turned to the Russians, the ’stans’ and even Iran for help.”
Who stopped you in the first place not to go begging to Russinas for help, certainly not the pakistanis. Even Iranians, well you need to, as there IEDs are proveing very deadly. Personally the Yanks are lucky that Russinas are not using the talibans to play the the same game which americans played in the 70’s.
“Pakistani talk about protecting their interests seems hollow when they can’t (or won’t) even pacify their own border areas.”
Hollow not realy maybe your thinking is tho, we know what is good n bad for us. USA spending over 3.5 billion Dollars to fence the Mexicans border to stop illegal crossing has it been successfull? I dont think so… so if the superpower cant achieve this what expectations do you have from Pakistan realistically? Have you ever seen the terrain not desret exactly is it? its difficulty terrain and people have been crossing for centuries and tribes living both sides of the border. So in short it is impossible and inpractical. Simple solution why not simply seal the afghan side of the border?
Its NOT too late at all, I fully support the opration and so most pakistani. If thats where those cowards are hiding then its time we got them. But yes the homework needs to be done and is almost done. When the time is right the Pak Forces will strike and inshhalah illinate all those cowrds that behead civilians, oragnise sucide issions or impose there way of barbaric life on paksitanis…
- Posted by Janbaz