U.S. defence officials, in a ringing vote of confidence, said over the weekend that Pakistan had the forces and equipment to launch a long-awaited ground offensive in South Waziristan. It could mount this assault without seeking more reinforcements, a U.S. official said, according to this Reuters report. Yet Pakistan had cited in recent months shortages of helicopters, armoured vehicles and precision weapons in putting off a Waziristan assault.
So what has changed? Has the United States, desperate to turn around a faltering war in Afghanistan, got ahead of itself in nudging Pakistan toward “the mother-of-all battles”?
Some people are asking if the Pakistan Army is really ready to start what must be its bigest test yet since the militants turned on the Pakistani state. If the idea is to go in and linflict casualties on the Taliban in the hope of killing senior leaders, then it will be another punitive strike for which the force levels may well be adequate.
But if the Pakistan Army plans to go into the Mehsud strongholds and occupy the region then the numbers are a bit worrying, says Bill Roggio at The Long War Journal. A Pakistan Army spokesman has said that two divisions, or up to 28,000 soldiers, are in place to take on an estimated 10,000 hard-core Taliban.
But Roggio says Waliur Rehman Mehsud, who heads the Mehsud Taliban forces in Waziristan, (Hakimullah Mehsud who surfaced at the weekend is the overall head of the Pakistani Taliban) is estimated to command anything between 10,000 to 30,000 forces. If the army were to wage a full-scale counter-insurgency they and the Frontier Corps “would need to throw multiple divisions against a Taliban force of this size,” he argues. And then there is the Haqqani network, as well as a sizeable contingent of Uzbek and other non-Pakistani fighters in the area. They may well join the fight, according to the Dawn newspaper.
Pakistani expert Imtiaz Gul, who heads the Independent Centre for Research and Security Studies in Islamabad, calls Waziristan a “blackhole” for security and intelligence forces. At least 800 pro-government tribal elders and intelligence officials have lost their lives to Taliban and al Qaeda assassins in Waziristan and adjacent tribal areas, most of them in the last four years, eroding Pakistani intelligence from the region and in turn forcing a greater reliance on U.S. drone surveillance and strikes, he says in a piece for the AFPAK channel for Foreign Policy.
Gul reckons one of the prime objectives of the impending military assault would be to take out the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan entrenched there and whose powerful leader Tahir Yuldashev is believed to have been killed in a U.S. drone strike in August.
Some others are saying there is actually no public estimate of the total number of Waziri fighters, and that the Pakistan Army might end up in a 1:1 ratio with the militants, which is far too low to sustain a counter-insurgency campaign, let alone win it. You can’t help recalling again the oft-quoted words of Lord Curzon, the turn-of-the-century British Viceroy of India, who said : ”No patchwork scheme will settle the Waziristan problem. Not until the military steamroller has passed over the country from end to end, will there be peace. But I do not want to be the person to start that machine.”
And even if Pakistan were willing to run the steamroller it may just not be avaialble to it, not yet at least.
Sameer Lalwani in a study for the New America Foundation says that the Pakistan Army is already overstretched with the Swat operation and lacks the capacity to expand the fight. The study provides a fairly detailed assessment of Pakistani capabilities for a counter-insurgency campaign focussing on 1) the nature of the insurgency, including its strength, capabilities, tactics, and strategic objectives; 2) the terrain challenges posed by the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), and 3) current and potential Pakistani potential military capabilites. Here is the PDF of the full report.
In short, Lalwani argues that 370,000 and 430,000 more troops would be needed in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and the North West Frontier Province region to meet the minimum force-to-population ratios prescribed by standard counter-insurgency (COIN) doctrine, much higher than current Pakistani deployments of 150,000, and even this is no assurance of success given adverse conditions.
It is too big for the army alone, and would need the calling up of reserves and also greater reliance on the poorly-equipped Frontier Corps. And the Pakistan Army would resist redeployment of more forces from the Indian border because for it, the Indians remain an enduring threat.
And as Roggio asks is the state ready for the blow back from a full-scale assault? The militants have repeatedly attacked cities each time they have come under pressure. On Monday, a suicide bomber breached the tightly guarded office of the United Nations World Food Programme in a residential part of Islamabad, killing five people.
[Photographs of Hakimullah Mehsud and paramilitary soldiers]
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mr siddiqui,
- Posted by rex minoryour pa like all other foreign forces have always fought them to no avail and then retreated with some sort of consolation.in fact most of the btritish units boasted of their campaign in waziri territory and some of these units became a part of the pa.Oh yes they even granted vc’s to their officers for their gallantry, without retaining an inch of waziris land. history is simply being repeated with new actors.can you state what was the purpose of PA to enter swat and then waziristan and did they achieve it?if the purpose is to shed the blood of innocents,old, women and children in order to solicit cash and equpment support from usa?then probably according to cnn debate among us generals they are making headway.In fact they all agreed that usa should eventually withdraw their forces and put pressure on pakistan to deliver.but why sacrifice poor soldiers life if now the govt. is offering rewards for the capture of so called insurgents.only to give the waziris targets for practice.pa ex isi chief sounds more realistic on this episode.i can see one definite outome: the current civilian govt. with sardari and co.will fall, whether a take over by the military elite group as in the past”de ja vou” or by nawaz sharif and co.this is not determined yet.THis is my educated and subjetive prognosis of this sad piece of history.I have witnessed several before!!What is yours ,victory for the pa to redeem itself from the past failures?
Hi there Rex Minor! As I said PA has already overrun Kaniguram and Sararogha and begun cleaning up Makin. It is Nov 3, only 17 days into battle and already ALL the strongpoints have been taken and mopping up begun. Of course the stragglers will continue to be there and be taken care of by the Army in a continuing presence. I want to hear your opinion of this operation.
- Posted by Mansoor Siddiquimrsiddiqi,now you are completely off track. i do neither represent the indian army nor the american interests. i am simply trying to analyse the history and watching with sadness how a country is destroying its individual components one by one by shooting in their own feet.pashtoons or afghans, the two words are synonymous refer to one and the same people.the triangular territory they live in covers an area of approx.250,0000 sq. miles.starts from dir in the north,this so called triangle includes the major portion of the nwfp, a part of quetta divisionand three fourths of afghanistan.in this region th lives the world’s largest group of tribesmen in the world.”if pa would simply educate and informs its officers corp(the soldiers are not at fault)about the history and culture of the entire ethnic mix of pakistan then the disaster the country has faced over the last half a century could have been avoided or at least minimised,and all the causes and explanations elaborated in your note would not be necessary.it is hard to believe but it is a fact that the army general sends a large army to a hostile part of east pakistan in order to suppress the citizens of bengal.it came as a surprise to everyone that he had not contemplated the ndian army taking over the capital of east pakistan which was not defended.he then orders the army to surrender in accordance with the lessons of war games described in english text books”.ention pakistathese tribes have baffled and confused many famous historians including muslim historians from al-biruni onwards.pushtoons will not hold to any agreement written or oral if it is not for his benefits.one cannnot use a spin with them like carey/luger and hillary are trying to influance pa and civilian govt. to accept the aid package.pushtoons loyalty is for his family and tribe and for the land he lives in. i hope pa campaign will be soon over as you are forecasting.i doubt it but still wish that for the sake of piece you are proven right.i would not rely on usa for assistance if things do not work your way.
- Posted by ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,So you are referring to the Great Victorious Indian Army where they did nothing except wait for Bengalis to fight it out and then when the battle was lost and won then declare it the greatest Indian victory & declare Maneckshaw the first Field Marshal. It was definitely a victory for RAW and other Indian spies in E.Pakistan who started their activities with “Agartala Conspiracy”.
- Posted by Mansoor SiddiquiWhy don’t you follow what is happenning under your nose right now in SWA? Now it is reduced to a triangle, 14 miles x 11 miles x 7 miles (Kaniguram - Sararogah - Makin). Nov 6th will mark the cessation of major operations and return of civilians will begin by Nov 20. I’m not running away so keep in touch. Pakistan will prove to the world that it is capable of routing the Islamic radical elements. I will leave it to you to compare the shameful spanking that IA suffered at the hands of the Chinese in the Sino-Indian War with the Pakistan/Bangladesh Civil War. The Chinese chose not to make at least 2 divisions of IA POW because they had no capability of providing Indian Curry and chutney to revive 30,000 underfed soldiers. Do an in-depth study and let me have the comparison. Also please let me know of other great Indian victories that I’m not aware of. May be you think that the Gold & diamond smuggling in Africa of your “peace-keeping” contingent was a great victory too.
By the way you should know that Mehsuds, Waziris & Afridis are more patriotic than anybody else and they are not Afghans, they are Pakistani Pathans. I think you should learn about what Pakistan is composed of. Lest you might think that we are a similar bunch as you in India are: we are much, much different than what constitutes India. We don’t have 15% untouchables, 13% semi-untouchable Muslims & 10,000,000 enslaved Kashmiris. We don’t have ANY untouchables, nobody enslaved (by the way people in FATA are the most independent people on Earth and Pakistan is proud of them).
On one hand you are against Islamic radicalism and on the other you refuse to support Pakistan when it fights those radicals. What’s going on?
no mr Siddiqi, we have alsö seen the so called professional army surrender when sorrounded by another regional army(not necessarily stronger) following the text book guidelines they were taught.yes,this type of professionalism is not seen in national armies.The soldiers in a national army instead is taught to refuse illegal orders which ask for military campaigns against its own citizens. people who are suspected of crimes are tried in civilian courts(in absentia if necessary) and not executed in their homes or backyards.PA has suffered several defeats and spent shameful time as pows but you remain persistent in your praise for them.i guess it is probably human to make the same mistake over and over again.it would seem that despite the departure of the despot general he has left behind a bag of worms not really healthy for the stability of the country.The civilian govt. is going to face tough times.
- Posted by rex minorMr. Rex Minor, (I hope I’m right about your name)
- Posted by Mansoor SiddiquiIts past midnight Pakistan time. The assault on Kaniguram (main stronghold of Uzbeks) is about to begin by my figuring. If you take the time to follow the PA’s progress in this operation you will concede that this operation has gone on most professionally. They are converging on to the main objective on three axes - North, East and West on to Ladha-Makin complex. I predicted in one of my blogs that the major operations will be done in a coupla weeks(my only update is that its going to take three weeks). That is exactly what is happenning and after Sararogha and Kaniguram ar taken by Nov 1 the main battle will be fought between Nov 5-8. The trouble is you have no idea how professional PA is. Frankly have you seen any Army in this region (Exception US Army) who can put up an action like that? I’m not running away. I’ll be here giving my analysis on this operation.
mr siddiqi,
- Posted by rex minoryou are very much loaded, some facts but most of your statement is made up of causes.i am interested in history and not the excuses,why pa did not fight in kashmir in 1947?it does not matter! i do not believe this is the right place to discuss patriotism slogans or political views.we are all entitled to hold on to our views.i have said before pushtoons loyalty is first for his family then the tribe and the land he lives in, not the voodoo story of alice in the wonderland.PA has overstepped their mission, instead of defending the country they have been exploiting the wealth of the nation taking away the freedom of the country, destroying the political and civil society and the democratically elected govts. bringing thereby the country on the brink of becoming a failed state.you do not have a national army.your own ex president and general implied this in a recent tv intervew. your army is now being asked to support us military efforts in controlling their adventure in afghanistan.you keep giving names to people of your own country who disagree with you.if pa shows that they are stronger than waziris, they will be able to redeem themselves and finally prove to the whole world that they are a force to reckon with. i myself am not so optimist.my forecast is that eventually they will be routed from the tribal terribal land, from waziristan to swat across.Ogf course they will have plenty of excuses, reasons etc. why they had to withdraw. When you deliberate on this chapter of history which we are witnessing then you should raise a single question, why from the popülation equal to or more than that of france and germany they have not been able to construct a simple drone which according to news reports is currently being used by usa in pakistan. have a nice evening sir and good luck.
After Partition India refused to give Pakistan a due share of mlitary assets, consequently Pakistan was founded with an unequipped army. Nearly 95% of defence oriented industry was in India. So the situation was that India had everything (Industry was set up by the Brits to support IIWW) and Pakistan had nothing. The dilapidated aircraft handed over to Pakistan crashed enroute (fuel was sabotaged. this is part of history). Those crash-landing within Pakistani border were made airworthy and formed the first aircraft of the PAF. The IA kept all the heavy guns/ammo, all of the battle-worthy tanks, all the navy except for some IWW vintage ships which were all candidates for the scrap heap. The interesting thing is that Pakistan was able to stare down India because of the nature of its population which is capable of defending itself with or without an army. In 1947 Punjab had its hands full with 5,000,000 refugees from the Indian Punjab and UP. The province was trying to feed and house this influx. The army was only assisted by the lashkars in the Kashmir War. The tribals were not the only non-military people who fought in Kashmir. The people of Gilgit, Chitral, Punjabis, Kashmiris & Balouchis (plus a significant portion of IIWW veterans from all over Pakistan) were all part of the lashkars. The tribals were the only ones who had weapons of any sort. The tribals did it for Pakistan and will do it again for Pakistan. Do you think that the tribals bear allegiance to the Afghan State? You are definitely in the Cuckooland my dear. Where did you hear that? Tribals are fiercest defenders of Pakistan. Any time there is mobilisation the Tribals are always the first who offer their services to the nation. Wait till this SWA thing is over and then see how quickly the situation will normalise proving that tribals are patriotic Pakistanis and would like to live in peace. Nobody, including the army can deny anyone’s rights in Pakistan. This operation is for law & order purposes and once taken care of the civilians will stream back relieved that the trouble-makers have been routed/corrected/punished. Pakistan is a nation of 170,000,000 people who will all stand as one if need arises.
- Posted by Mansoor SiddiquiYou said that Mr Karzai is going to expel all foreigners from Afghan lands from both sides of the border. You have no idea of proportion. So Mr Karzai claims 35,000,000 Pakistani Pathans while he has a total population of 32,000,000 comprising of about 58% of Turkic peoples and only 30% (about 10,000,000) of total speaking Pushto. While Pakistan has 40,000,000 speaking Pushto! At least 5,000,000 Punjabis and Balouchis speak Pushto. In Afghanistan people think it uncivilised to speak in Pushto as against Darri. In Pakistan Pushto is a respected language. Please work on this and see if you come up with different numbers. If you ask anybody in Peshawar, Kohat, Mardan, Swat or even Miramshah in NWA as to their views on being an Afghan rather than a Pakistani then you had better go with a security detail.
India will be better advised to spend all the money its spending on the propaganda about Pakistani border with Afghanistan and spend instead on defending its own border with China, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Kashmir & Pakistan.
And don’t worry about Pakistan as it has already become a powerful, progressive, tolerant and modern country which will eliminate religious intolerance from within its borders and be a shining example for all its neighbours, including India.
mr siddique, sorry but the debate will not solve pakistan problems in a short space of time which which the military leaders unfortunately has inflicted on the country over several decades. i do not question the sincerety of pa nor doubt your patriotism.nevertheless, the history of your country states for that somehow for no fault of their own the military generals took upon themselves to run political as well as military affairs of the country not once but several times since the formation of the country.Histor names this sad period as the military rule.sorry but you even question the outcome of wars between pakistan and india.as far as kashmir is concerned it was the wazirs and massuds who took the lead and invaded kashmir.pa was not even allowed to hold the territory gained by voluntiers mainly from swat and waziristan;since their british chief at the time refused to allow it. this is a piece of history now, i thought you must be awre of this. we see that the wealth of any country is its people, one can educate them, motivate them and they become the real stregnth of the nation.On the other hand, you can antagonise them, deny them the human rights and subsequently use the military against them. this will create a very strong oponent of the state from within. this happened in bengal, balochistan now in the heart of the pushtoon territory. This is why in the us pakistan has been declared as a candidate of a failed state, and some military generals have not yet understood this. I hope that pakistan politicians will get the chance to straighten out the mess the previous military president left after hisc forced departure.you are right there are more pushtoons in pakistan. in total there are roughly over sixty millian, and one should not misunderstand them wheather they are in your military, navy and airforce or live across in other state.They disagree with their brothers,fight with their cousins but their primary loyalty is for their family and the tribe they belong to.they defend the land where they live and defend those who take refuge with them!!O’h before i take a break from this explantion,they are also flexable against a suitable payment of cash as long as this does not infringe upon their code of honour.As an observer i would not be surprised if after election mr karzai orders the expulsion of all foreigners from the afghan land on both sides of the border.In any case i wish you all to have peace in your land.
- Posted by rex minorrexminor.
- Posted by Mansoor SiddiquiHello Sir, West and the East were separated by 1,000 mile of hostile territory. Pakistan had no hope of averting the break up of Pakistan. It was more of a political defeat than a military one. It was a huge error in judgement on part of Pakistanis to try to defeat the Bengali separatists. Having said that let me examine your comment that PA never won a war. What would you call a Pakistani victory? Pakistani flag on the Red Fort in Delhi? Let’s talk in terms of 2009 Pakistan. Population-wise Pakistan is 1/7th of India’s. The Indians have always held 2 to 1 advantage in military hardware and head count. India with 400,000 to 500,000 soldiers in Kashmir alone has not been able to significantly change the status quo for the last 60 years. That alone is victory for Pakistan. The only major Indian offensive was on Lahore in 1965 and Pakistan was able to withstand that attack. However Pakistan and India cannot go on fighting forever. I think a solution of Kashmir is close at hand.
The “long range” artillery and air power that is being used in SWA is proportionate to the threat. Do you want PA to use grenades and rifles while the Insurgents are using heavy machine guns, rockets and heat-seeking AA weapons? The Government advised the civilians to move out to minimise damage to innocent people. If you take the Swat operation as an example of Pakistani Government’s performance in looking after the displaced persons then I’m sure that you will agree that they will do no less for SWA IDPs. I’m sure you will concede that the Mehsud tribe per se does not have any grouse against the government. It is only the few trouble-mongers who suffer from the delusion that they are soldiers of Islam conducting Jihad for the rest of the Muslims. At best their movement is misguided and destined for defeat. Also their basic locomotion is provided by external help including the presence of Uzbeks, Yemenis and Afghans. PA’s conclusion that the enclave of resistance in SWA is the core of insurgency and once taken care of will defuse their movement. They tried to give an impression by dispersed attacks that the entire FATA or even Punjab was under their control. By the way there are more Pushtoons in Pakistan than in Afghanistan and the population of NWFP is greater than Afghanistan’s. How can Pakistan ever even imagine to undermine Pushtoons! Pakistan IS Pushtoon.
hallo mr siddiqui,
- Posted by rexminori am sorry to have upset your feelings.you will agree that national armies do not drop bombs on their citizens nor aim long range artillery pieces at them without any discrimination.Even the nato and the us military accepts now that this usually causes the death of old,women and children.According to the afghan president right now pushtoons are being killed on both sides of the border; the same border which was created by the brits during their colonial adventure.It is also worth remembering that PA has not not won a single war,caused the rupture of east pakistan,created unrest in Balochistan and restricted the development of the country as a whole.what the country needs is the peoples democracy,stregnthing of its civil institutions without relying on the military for internal security.National armies usually are stationed at the borders or in their barracks and well out of cities.
Hello Rexminor,
- Posted by Mansoor SiddiquiJust because the terrorists happen to speak Pushto does not mean that the operation is against the Pushtoons (they also speak Uzbek, Russian and Arabic). I hope you know that there are about 20,000,000 Pushtoons in Pakistan and they are all patriotic Pakistanis willing to sacrifice all to defend Pakistan against all enemies whether they are in Punjab or in South Waziristan. Even Pakistan Army/Air Force/Navy have more than 20% servicemen from NWFP.
Yes you are right the British failed because they were the Outsiders. The Soviets stopped at the Pakistani borders because they dared not invade Pakistan when it was defended at the border by the Pushtoon tribesmen of Pakistan.
Pushtoons ARE Pakistan. PA is taking out the lawless elements of SWA. Please don’t equate the Red Coats with Pakistan Army.
bravo. both nato and pakarmy army are trying to overpower pashtoons in order to set the guiness record. no force in history has ever been successful.the intruders have always been routed.
- Posted by rexminorHistorically no one has ever been able to rule afghanistan without the concurrence of pushtoons.pakarmy adventure into the autonomous pushtoons terrain could end up in a similar pattern for the future.that is to say that no govt. in pakistan could survive without the concurrence of pushtoons.
Sam you still there? Keep watching CNN & BBC and you’ll know what I was talking about. They have thrown a cordon around the Taliban and within 24 hours are already at the main strongholds. An important village kotkai is already taken. I expect all the strongholds will fall within the week and the Taliban will try to escape to higher elevations. Only the very best will escape. Taliban positions around Makeen due to fall in a couple of days. Keep in touch.
- Posted by Mansoor SiddiquiHey Mansoor,
- Posted by SamWHat time is it now? Where is your Gen Kiyani? Still not done negotiating “peace deals” with Talibans?
Folks the latest: Gen. Kayani has briefed the Governors of NWFP & Baluchistan on the Waziristan Operation. It seems that it is imminent now. The time in Pakistan is 6:20 am.
- Posted by Mansoor SiddiquiMansoor,
- Posted by SunnyYou deserve to be nominated for ‘…..’ Peace Prize for taking initiative to promote peace on this blog.
Mansoor
- Posted by UmairI agree with you, nice ground rules for a healthy debate. Also we should keep in loop of the developments as far as the impending PA op in South Waziristan is concerned, and keep updated with current situation. Good luck to everyone!
Hello Keith and Umair, Let us establish some rules:
- Posted by Mansoor Siddiqui1. Never compare the West against PA.
2. Never suspect the sincerity of any of the allies.
3. Never make fun of anybody.
4. Respect every opinion without labelling each other.
5. Issue an immediate Mea Culpa when in error.
6. Never ramble.
7. Add some humour.
8. Be less sensitive about 7. above.
9. Keep religion out.
Further Keith. The “Langar” (kitchen) personnel will not be more than 700 out of the 28,000 force. How does it compare with your tail? (In jest only)
- Posted by Mansoor SiddiquiWhen I say “Rabble Rousers” I mean that the Hakeemullah group only have a cooked up agenda and are not really motivated to put in anything more into the fight. In the final analysis the PA is providing only a nudge for the Tribals to put their own house in order and that is why I say that the operation will be a short affair. Even if the Pak Taliban manage to break the cordon they will be in much deeper @%$#.
Remember Keith PA is on the same side as US/EU.