One of the arguments frequently put forward for sending more western troops to Afghanistan is that western failure there will destabilise Pakistan.
Very roughly summarised, this 21st century version of the domino theory suggests that a victory for Islamist militants in Afghanistan would so embolden them that they might then overrun Pakistan - a far more dangerous proposition given its nuclear weapons.
A slightly different but related argument is that the United States needs to show resolve in Afghanistan to convince Pakistan of its commitment to the region and encourage the Pakistan Army and its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy agency to turn against Islamist militants it once cultivated as ”strategic assets” to be used against its much bigger neighbour India.
“Many in Pakistan have always believed the Americans are not really serious about Afghanistan. They recall that the U.S. supported Pakistan and the mujahideen in Afghanistan in the 1980s only to abandon both once the Soviets left,” writes Bruce Riedel at Brookings in a follow-up to this weekend’s attack on the Pakistan Army headquarters.
If President Barack Obama ”shows resolve in Afghanistan, Pakistanis won’t love us, but they will believe we are serious and determined to stay until a stable Afghanistan and Pakistan emerges,” he writes. “If it appears the United States cannot make up its mind about what to do, then Pakistanis will say I told you so and make their own accommodations.”
Yet the assault on army headquarters in the garrison city of Rawalpindi raises several questions both about the domino theory and argument about the United States needing to show resolve in Afghanistan.
First, does the Pakistan Army still need to be convinced of the dangers from Islamist militants after its commandos, as the Daily Telegraph put it, “were forced to storm their own headquarters” to release hostages seized in an attack on the most powerful institution in the country?
Second, the attack - which in turn raised jitters about the safety of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons - appeared to have nothing to do with the main Afghan Taliban group fighting western forces in Afghanistan - the so-called Quetta shura led by Mullah Omar, which according to Washington is based in Pakistan’s Baluchistan province.
As discussed in this post and in this analysis, the gunmen involved in the Rawalpindi raid came from a nexus of militant groups linking up the Pakistani Taliban, or Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP), based in South Waziristan in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan, and organisations which have taken deep root in the country’s heartland Punjab province - including sectarian groups and those originally set up to fight India in Kashmir.
The Guardian quotes Pakistan Army spokesman Major General Athar Abbas as saying that five of the attackers came from Punjab while the other five were from South Waziristan. The ringleader, he said, was a Punjabi, while the operation was ordered from South Waziristan. The Pakistani Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack, but said it was carried out by its Punjab unit.
So if the threat to Pakistan comes not from the Afghan Taliban but from the Pakistani Taliban and the many militant organisations based in Punjab, can you still cite the need to stabilise Pakistan as a justification for sending more troops to Afghanistan?
There may be other arguments for sending more troops to Afghanistan, among them to prevent it again becoming a base for al Qaeda. As Reuters correspondent William Maclean writes here, analysts are still divided on whether the Afghan Taliban can be prised away from al Qaeda.
Pakistan’s former ambassador to Kabul argues in this interview with India’s Business Standard that they can. “First of all, we have to understand that the Taliban and the al Qaeda have totally different targets; and also that the Afghan Taliban are different from the Pakistan Taliban and there is evidence of this,” he says. ”We can do business with the Taliban and in order to bring back some normalcy in Afghanistan, the Taliban and the U.S. will have to do business. But we need to have some benchmarks for the conduct of the Taliban government before we do that.”
And in this article in the Washington Post, Prince Turki al-Faisal, the former director of Saudi Arabia’s intelligence service, suggests looking anew at the Afghan Taliban.
“Change the media theme from attacking the Taliban and calling them the terrorists to concentrating on al Qaeda and ‘foreign terrorists’,” he writes. ”By removing the stigma of terrorism from the Taliban, you can pursue meaningful negotiations with them. Mohammad Omar has never enjoyed the full support of Pashtuns. He is a lowly figure in tribal terms, and he is blamed by many of them for the calamity that has befallen Afghanistan. Reaching out to tribal leaders is what will move negotiations.”
Those are big questions about Afghanistan, but are they the same questions as those now being asked about Pakistan? Or is it time to start looking at the two countries separately again, albeit within a broad regional context that acknowledges the very complex links between different Islamist militant groups?
The ”AfPak” label has never been popular in the region itself. Is it time to ditch it?
(Reuters file photos: Nuristan in Afghanistan; U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan, and Pakistani soldiers in the border areas)
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Mr. Herbert writes: “Pakistan must act now and decisively. Since it has atomic weaponry, employ tactical nukes in Swat valley, South Waziristan and other areas infested by Taliban (Afghan or Pakistani), AQ, or other anti-government forces. This will help Jihadis get to Paradise faster and give Pakistan a chance to survive, possibly thrive.”
How about innocent civilians? Elderly, women and children? Everyone there is not Taliban sir. They are the majority and they will be the ones wiped out by the nukes. And those who survive, will join the Taliban in an act of vengeance. And instead of cleaning up the monster, it will only make it bigger. India and Pakistan have become such utter enemies because of the violence that slaughtered so many innocent men, women and children during the partition of the sub-continent. Imagine what a nuke will do.
Bombs never offer permanent solutions. They only offer immediate shock. But everything recovers from it and the damage lasts forever. It begins to make things worse than before.
Nukes must be removed from this planet for good.
- Posted by KP SinghPakistan must act now and decisively. Since it has atomic weaponry, employ tactical nukes in Swat valley, South Waziristan and other areas infested by Taliban (Afghan or Pakistani), AQ, or other anti-government forces. This will help Jihadis get to Paradise faster and give Pakistan a chance to survive, possibly thrive.
- Posted by Herbet WillsPakistan’s ISI still supporting the Taliban, say Afghans
Pakistan’s intelligence agency is directing Taliban attacks on Western targets in Afghanistan, Davood Moradian, a senior government official has claimed.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnew s/asia/pakistan/6338349/Pakistans-ISI-st ill-supporting-the-Taliban-say-Afghans.h tml
- Posted by RaminThe interior minister, Mr. Malik, a confidant of President Asif Ali Zardari, was prevented from entering the army headquarters on Wednesday for a ceremony he had been invited to, apparently because he has fallen into disfavor with the military command.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/16/world/ asia/16pstan.html?em
- Posted by AndyPak police blames India after terror attacks and hides real terrorists! Some people never stop palying games with dead!
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india /Pak-police-accuse-India-after-5-terror -attacks-in-a-day/articleshow/5128444.cm s
- Posted by AndyHey Umair and other Pakistanis,
Condolences and sympathies for your dead police officers and civilians!
Hope these events will convince ISI that terrorists are nobody’s friends! Hafeeez Sayeed and likes should be put in jail and their terror infrastructure should be dismantled!
Time is running out for Pakistan to act against these terrorists! No more peace deals or turning blind eye or my-terrorist-your-terrorist!
- Posted by SamMr. Umair: “so i get the point, there are some Al-Qaeda and Taliban havens in Pakistan. Just has there are some tax havens in the world like Switzerland or Moanco, but all citizens of those countries are not accused of money laundering and tax evasion. Pakistan, with international cooperation can overcome the Al-Qaeda and Taliban havens and bring the terrorists to justice who have inflicted much damage in Pakistan too.”
Wrong conclusion. Tax havens are legitimate. They are recognized by international community. They are not mafia controlled money laundering black market businesses.
Al Qaeda, Taliban, LeT etc are illegal criminal organizations that engage in terrorizing populations and destroying countries.
Compare Dubai with Pakistan. Both are Muslim nations. Both do not have much oil or resources to be self sufficient. But Dubai is a flourishing business center, while Pakistan is mired in conflicts and wars. Reason? One went with business and the other went with the business of terrorism.
One can bring up a dog as a pet and in general it will behave and follow commands. But if one brought up a crocodile as a pet, at some point the animal will start feeding on the owner when it cannot find food elsewhere.
- Posted by KP SinghThe two are not the same.
Just has there are some tax havens in the world like Switzerland or Moanco ..
Pakistan, with international cooperation can overcome the Al-Qaeda and Taliban havens and bring the terrorists to justice who have inflicted much damage in Pakistan too.
- Posted by Umair
Yes, international coercion (not cooperation) is the way forward! You should cooperate with the drones and special-ops. Tell your army/ISI that this the only option available for cooperation!
Talibans won’t be allowed to have a Switzerland or Moanco in Pakistan!
- Posted by Samthere is no taliban the gov just makes an umbrella of many groups arab, pashut and others so as not to confuse the public. They wouldn’t be happy if it was widely known that we are dealing with many unheard of groups, with the exception of al qaeda which only has 100 fighters in aphganistan compared with the 20,00 total fighters in aphganistan who fight each other often.If you want to go after alqaeda you can eliminate them in days in indonesia somallia (the places where osama bin laden if he is still alive ). Most experts agree he died in the battle of tora bora. Even the president doesn’t know this its been ignored so much by the media that we stil think he’s alive. And the osama videos propoganda made by the millitants they are all made by different people.
- Posted by benhttp://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/18/magazi ne/18Afghanistan-t.html?pagewanted=8&_r= 1&hp
With its 180 million people, several dozen nuclear warheads and havens for Al Qaeda and the Taliban, Pakistan is one wild card in McChrystal’s campaign. “If we are good here, it will have a good effect on Pakistan,” he told me. “But if we fail here, Pakistan will not be able to solve their problems — it would be like burning leaves on a windy day next door. And if Pakistan implodes, it will be very hard for us to succeed.”
-OK, so i get the point, there are some Al-Qaeda and Taliban havens in Pakistan. Just has there are some tax havens in the world like Switzerland or Moanco, but all citizens of those countries are not accused of money laundering and tax evasion. Pakistan, with international cooperation can overcome the Al-Qaeda and Taliban havens and bring the terrorists to justice who have inflicted much damage in Pakistan too.
- Posted by UmairI think AfPak and Holbrooke were two hastily considered alternatives for Afghanistan by a new Obama administration, which wanted to show that it was doing something different from the previous administration. Should it be overturned? I think so.
Would someone please enlighten me as to what is the US aim in Afghanistan? Speaking for myself, I think what needs to be addressed first is the political aim in Afghanistan on which this whole operation was based. All the discussions around sending more troops, or settling Pakistan first or bribing the Taliban etc. are secondary. The prime question is why is America in Afghanistan? Once there is a clear cut understanding on that one issue, alternate routes to achieving it can be discussed. From my limited knowledge, a single well defined, clear cut political aim is a must. My problem is I don’t know what it is.
- Posted by Dara‘No change’ to Pakistan aid bill!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/83 06061.stm
US rejects Pak army’s concerns!
Democracy survives for now in Pakistan!
- Posted by RobinUmair:
Kashmir dispute (if there is one) is between Kashmiris and Indians. What has Pakistan gotta do with it?
What “just solution” you want? Plz be straight, specific and objective!
Pakistan is illegallly occupying 40% of the Kashmir and INdians/Kashmiris are nice enough not to ask that back! What more do you want?
If Pakistanis can’t take care of what they have got, why Pakistanis think they deserve more?
- Posted by ANdyIf fired, Haqqani threatens to unveil ‘reams’ of Pakistan’s secrets
http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-n ewspaper-daily-english-online/Politics/1 4-Oct-2009/If-fired-Haqqani-threatens-to -unveil-reams-of–Pakistans-secrets
- Posted by Sam
The drama of Pakistani politicians, generals, diplomats etc never ceases to amaze me. I’ve never heard of an ambassador threatening to disclose state secrets, in order to hold on to his job. Only in Pakistan!
- Posted by MortalUmair Says:
(A) “Above all, I also stated that we (India & Pakistan) are way behind other nations in resolving longstanding disputes”
(B)”China and Pakistan are always strategic partners in defense industry and economic cooperation, India can be an option too but not in the near future”
Resp. A: DON”T compare India to Pakistan. There is no scale and nothing to compare! India has beat China in reaching the Moon, where as your PM is in China currently begging for a satellite and learning “Satelite-101 for Talibans”. Tell me a few areas where you want to compare Pakistan with INdia!
What Long standing disputes? You wanted your own country and we gave you that! If you have no experience in running a country, NOT India’s fault! India has been been kind enough to give you a country! What else do you want? We had kissed you GOOD-BYE 62 years back! How long will you keep asking for things? I think it was a mistake to give you a country! You have become a danger to the whole world!
Resp. B: NO, Thank you! India has nothing to learn from communists or terrorists! Pakistan and China can learn from each other begging, terrorism, communist skills, dictatorship, military coups, prisoner execution and organ harvesting, religious persecution. India has no interest in these areas! ALso send your terrorist brothers to China, NOT to India! Promote your bilateral trade with India?
Don’t fool your self! China is not your strategic partner! Partnership is between equals! Beggar-Donor relation is not partnership! At what level do you compare yourself to China?
- Posted by Sam@ Umair: “i still firmly believe that Indian elite and Indian establishment would like to see a fragmented Pakistan which is easy to keep check”
Can you blame the Indians for thinking that way? Up until the Mumbai attacks, most Indians (myself included) thought that Pakistan can be turned around & that a progressive & moderate Pakistan would be good for India but after the attacks, a vast majority of indians feel that Pakistan can never change it’s ways & that a progressive & moderate Pakistan is a highly improbably & distant reality.
@ “You accuse Pakistan Army and ISI, I can guarantee if it were not upto the Army and ISI in Pakistan, terrorists would be stealing nuclear weapons and spreading all across”
LMAO! Are you really serious? How can you say that with a straight face knowing what the world now knows about your army’s proliferation of nukes to rogue nations & extremists via the AQ Khan distribution network? The reality is that if your army/ISI were left unchecked by US & allies, they would’ve sold nuclear technology to every terror organization in the world. It’s one thing to be a nationalistic jingo, Umair but please don’t twist facts to the extent that the start appearing comedic.
@ “Pakistan has its problems like any other country, but you will be sadly mistaken if you think Pakistan is a sinking ship”
Can you name any other country which has the following problems? An increasingly radicalized, impoverished & intolerant populace, a country rife with terror, violence, civil war & insurgencies, a nuclear arsenal in jeopardy of falling the hands of terrorists. Can you name one?
@ “Pakistan has the will, the resources and the manpower along with the expertise to fix all its problems”
Same old rah rah devoid of substance, facts or track record. What resources do you have when your Govt is paying it’s bills by getting aids & loans?
- Posted by MortalManpower is an asset if it’s productive but when it is increasingly radicalized & unproductive as it currently is in Pakistan, it can be the biggest liability for any nation.
Mr. Umair,
India really does not need Pakistan for its existence. Six decades have elapsed since the two countries parted ways. We can move on entirely without caring for Pakistan’s existence. For us, your country is only a major irritant. We are doing whatever little negotiations with you because of your country being a drag on us. We have set up our defense forces and fortifications near the border regions with your country for the same reason. Your country has tried every possible way to stir up Kashmir issue and has failed. It has bled your country hard. Now your leaders are vouching for it by saying if Kashmir issue is resolved, then they will be good people. In India, the view is different. We know that if Kashmir issue never existed, we will still be considered as the worst enemy by your military leaders. There will some other issue that will be cooked up - like revenge for East Pakistan or a fictiously created holocaust of Indian Muslim brothers or river water sharing. Pakistan will create some issue to keep the enemy image projected. Your country is basically one huge military contonment and it needs an enemy to keep its flag flying high. So it has created one conflict after another or taken part in some in order to feel important, macho and belligerent.
All Indians want from you Pakistanis is that you guys leave us alone. You can do whatever you want inside your borders. Kindly do not tell us what our foreign policy should be and what we should do with other nations. There sure will be intelligence gathering going on inside every country. So our RAW might be doing that inside Pakistan. But so do the ISI, CIA, Mossad etc inside India as well. This does not mean that India is scheming to stabilize and destroy Pakistan. If that is the case India would have annexed Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and even Burma by now. We have not. Neighboring countries do have issues and disputes. This does not mean they turn into enemies.
Pakistan’s current turmoil is its own making. Though most of you blame others for all your ills, you will come through only when you look at your own faults and correct them.
India will never take any concessions on Kashmir. So Pakistanis will need to take a deep breath and do something else for their survival. Kashmir issue has been beaten to death and India will not offer an inch there. Violent methods have been tried by your country and they have not worked.
It is up to your countrymen to see what you can do to come out of your current turmoil. Since we are your neighbors, we will be watching the events. But no one can drag us into your problem. We offer no solutions. We have other important issues to deal with in our country - we have to quell the Maoist rebels. We missed the monsoon. Southern states are flooded. We are facings a drought. We are recovering from global economic down turn. The last thing we want is a desperate attempt by Pakistan to drag us into mud. And we are not going to allow that.
This is the wrong time to do any diplomatic maneuvres between India and Pakistan. We will keep minimal contacts and exchange of information. Pakistan is unwilling to dismantle its terror networks that are anti-India. Until that happens, we cannot trust Pakistani leaders.
We wish your country good. We want you to live well. Hopefully you will rise.
- Posted by KP SinghIf fired, Haqqani threatens to unveil ‘reams’ of Pakistan’s secrets
http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-n ewspaper-daily-english-online/Politics/1 4-Oct-2009/If-fired-Haqqani-threatens-to -unveil-reams-of–Pakistans-secrets
- Posted by SamKp Singh
- Posted by UmairArguments evolve and opinions are reshaped over time, despite of what i stated about a ‘just solution’ of Kashmir i still firmly believe that Indian elite and Indian establishment would like to see a fragmented Pakistan which is easy to keep check.
You accuse Pakistan Army and ISI, I can guarantee if it were not upto the Army and ISI in Pakistan, terrorists would be stealing nuclear weapons and spreading all across. Pakistan has its problems like any other country, but you will be sadly mistaken if you think Pakistan is a sinking ship. Pakistan has the will, the resources and the manpower along with the expertise to fix all its problems. Drag your feet as much as you like, a time will come when rapproachment between the countries will simply not be possible.