Pakistan’s military offensive in South Waziristan appears to be showing considerably more success than earlier attempts to take control of the tribal region on the Afghan border, at least according to army accounts which are the only real source of information.
But will it turn the tide in Pakistan’s battle against Islamist militants? A few articles which have appeared over the last few days give pause for thought.
Dawn newspaper says in an editorial the Taliban have “been subdued, not vanquished”.
“Before operation Rah-i-Najat was launched, the army put the Taliban strength at about 10,000. Since the maximum number of Taliban fatalities has been put at about 500, those not taken prisoner may have slipped into North Waziristan or the adjoining settled districts. They must be pursued relentlessly without being given a chance to reorganise, and the nation ought to be told what strategy the authorities have up their sleeve to finish the job.”
And to achieve lasting success, the civilian administration is going to have to provide the kind of basic development - schools, roads, healthcare, electricity - that the refugees quoted in this Los Angeles Times article say they are hoping for.
But that might prove difficult at a time when the country’s political parties – rather than focusing on development and political reforms to convince people to back the government rather than the Taliban — are once again embroiled in the kind of in-fighting that has destroyed civilian democracy in the past.
Writing in Gulf newspaper The National, historian Manan Ahmed worries about the Pakistani Taliban spilling into Baluchistan and finding fertile ground for growth among a people unhappy with the government in Islamabad. The province is already home to a separatist Baluch insurgency. “The true crisis facing Pakistan is not the Taliban,” he writes. It is instead the state’s failure to provide political and economic rights to the many different people and ethnic groups who make up the country.
The Pakistan Army this year has driven the Taliban out of the Swat valley and is on the way to pushing them out of their South Waziristan stronghold. But can the civilian government provide the administrative backbone needed to ensure the military operations eventually defeat rather than merely displace the Taliban? The signs are not looking promising.
(A word on comments: my last post elicited some very interesting and insightful comments for which many thanks. But I’d like to ask everyone again to avoid polemics and focus on making points which take the discussion forward.)
(File photos of refugees from Swat during a dust-storm)
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@Mr K,
- Posted by rex minorYou say that the US is on the verge of starting a pull out from Baghdad. Please be a realistic! Who then is going to defend the US property including the biggest embassy in the middle east? Not to forget the large numbers of boots which the Iraqi have been collecting to throw at visiting US dignatries. Have the withdrawn their forces from Germany Japan and the South Korea? And where would these forces be accomodated in the US, along the border with Canada or Mexico. They do not even have the accomodation for the prisoners in their land. I am sorry When people like you do not want to realize that the American President main headech is to find accomodation or jobs for the large military they have. This is no different than the Pakistani Army. And now the good friend of Mr Bush, Mr Manmohan Singh has let them down by converting its reserve dollars into gold. What a great friend! It serves them right to trust the fakirs of the Indian sub-continent, the Afghans, the Pakistanis and now the Indians. Mr Obama has no other choice but to turn over to the great Chinese leaders. Why not? There is no harm trying them. I hope Mr K I have answered all your questions!! Good bye.
@Mr K,
- Posted by rex minorMr Obama slogan was and I quote “Yes,we can”. To me it means that “you can”.He never said that he can. He has already got too much on his plate not to forget the clintonians headed by no other person than hillary clinton. During bush days the real power exercised in the white house was ass igned to the VP. Any idea who is running the show now on the international scene? You have to use the approved US methods of torture to solve this puzzle. In the mean time let us keep our eyes open and follow the new york times, washington Post and the cable net work whose reporters are obtaining the classified info. as in the past by paying lucrative sums to the insiders. Not much different from the govts. in Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. Let us also hope that the two main protogonists, namely India and Pakistan continue their bickering and blame game so that their distructive potential for the world is reduced.
@Mr K,
- Posted by rex minoryou seem to have lots of hopes from the imposters and underrate pushtoons. The UN says Aghanistan is the worst country to be born in! I have different views both Pakistan tribal area and the afgha country are the bust to die in. The Pushtoons/Afghans hve decisively defeated the Brits, the soviets and the American and NATO armies. Every one have to pay to the tribal lords to pass through. Please try it on your next holidays. The Indians are quite used to them, afterall they lived under their raj for centuries. Have a good day.
Little King,
Bush has been out for nearly a year now. Get over it. It’s Obama’s ball game now.
The US is on the verge of starting a pull out from Iraq. After that happens, the full focus will be on “AfPak”. This region avoided the spotlight for years because of Bush’s boneheaded rush through Mesopotamia. No longer.
Obama is rightfully doing what Bush should have done. A full and thorough review of the AfPak problem. And I have no doubt that the solution he picks will have massive long term implications for Pakistan. Unfortunately, its a situation of their own making. For 60 years, they’ve avoided investing and developing the tribal areas. They’ve written off these people as ’savages’. You really should hear how some Pakistanis talk about them. The area has become the epicentre of global jihad and a security threat to virtually everybody. One way or another, Obama will contain the threat. Either he’ll commit to a tougher stance in Afghanistan and demand a lot more from Pakistan. Or he will withdraw from Afghanistan and take a much, much tougher stance on Pakistan (visa restrictions, sanctions, no aid, declaration as a state sponsor of terrorism). Neither option is going to be good for Islamabad. Far better for Islamabad to be active and deal with Waziristan on their own before the US gets around to it.
- Posted by KeithWe are fast approaching the year end, and people around the world would be celebrating the holiday period and the year year. Let me tell you a short story. Once upon a time a lad was raised in an american family, taught all the decent things the americans know of, including the daily/weekly chorus of putting the garbage bin outside the house for garbage collectors. Like many others the family made progress and were even able to sent this lad along with his brothers to college. The family acquired lots of wealth and were even in a position to support this lad avoid the military service.This overprortion support made this lad alcohalic and a good for nothing in the society. The family recipe was to support him take the governership of the adopted state. One gloomy day for the good world he became the President of the country although the vote count was faulty and total was manupalated.(I am not referring to the Afghan election, knowing that dr abdullah is currently in Florida with his grievences about the fraud committed in his country.)His father even organised a bunch of loyal and experienced officers to assist this lad, who considered himself of age now, to run the country. Ofcourse since the lad was a grown up adult now and was ássumed to be alkohal free, he was allowed to keep the task forc himself the decision authority.Now became the interesting time for this grown up lad to do anything he had wished or dreamt of during his childhood.He dug out his favourite books from the attic, whicht he had read during his school days such as Smoking Gun, Billy the kid, How the west was won and indians were eliminated etc. etc. He even told his Dad that the war camaign in Iraq was left incomplete. He suddenly wanted to become the greatest war President,C in Chief of the military, every President in the USA is proud of this title, something unique in the civilised democracies. He needed some spirtual support and promptly got it from his own church leaders. He asked his administration to identify the “axis of evil” countries so that he is able to talk to God and receive blessings before punishing the culprits. He offered heavy rewards against the terrorist with the slogan ” Dead or Allive” frequently used by his ancesters during wild west days. We all know the events of the past decade and irts affects on the world.One would need several decades and very decent leaders around the world to clear up the “sh” this notorious man has left behind. Mr Obama with his clintonian administration is not enough. The wisdom is likely to come from the east, but right now they also in turmoil. As a guest I have only one request, please try not to use the obscene and aggressive vocublary which has been often spoken in North America over the past several decades. My appeal is particularly for the North American and European participants and bloggers of this otherwise excellent home. Please at least try it. I always feel very sorry after using unwarranted words.I am not a racist, though find many cultures and traditions which I find foreign.
- Posted by rex minorPakistan army is only qualified to suppress and dominate the ordinary citizens which it has done for the past fifty years. Who created Taliban and Al Qaida ? The answer is open; Pak Army, US and Saudi Arabia all have been involved to grind their own axes; Pak Army to find strategic depth against India, US to back the fight against Communist Russia and Saudis to promote their own version of Islam and beat Iran in Afghanistan. End result: a franstein’s monster that threatens its makers and Pakistan being the governance mess it has been, is the easiest target.
- Posted by Legal EagleRadicalism is a mindset, the more you use force, the worse it gets. The only solution is a welfarist government and proper educational system. If people are protected by the government, have a say in its functioning and hold it acountable and people receive education showing them right from wrong and above all, show them that there is bright future for them ahead and suicide bombing is illegal even under Islam, that can probably turn the tide.
Otherwise, I am convinced that this could be a very long, bloody struggle in which Pakistan and Pakistanis will suffer the most; much worse than Afghanistan which has a far smaller population and far less to lose.
“The purpose of the operation as I perceive was to eliminate those militants which were backed by RAW, CIA and KHAD” - Posted by Aishaa
You’re echoing the sentiments of many of your fellow Pakistanis on this blog, who’ve made similar statements before you but failed to provide any legitimate, verifiable & independent source for these claims, when asked to. The question is, can you succeed, where they have, so miserably failed?
- Posted by MortalAnd when I say a legitimate source, I don’t mean a Retired Pakistani General or a Pakistani ‘defense analyst’. As a side-note, it seems that the only qualification needed to be a ‘defense analyst’ in Pakistan these days, is being unemployed.
“There is no doubt that our Army can wipe out terrorism (foreign sponsored) from South Wazirastan in few days to come. Now there is a need that our political leadership should come forward and start dialogue at point of strength with our tribal leaders in the area for a lasting peace.”
Are you serious?? Our army is not going to be able to wipe out terrorism. NOt for a long long time. These people are here to stay, I dont know who sent them, maybe we created them ourselves. But the fact remains that our government hasnt really provided for anyone. The private schools and universities are the only places providing education worth having.Same goes for other institutions. But that doesnt mean that we pick up bombs and destroy our own country. So why these people are doing what theyre doing is a mystery to me. For those who argue its India, its a little hard for me to believe. I mean they’re the next super power. Why would they want to destroy Pakistan? We are no competition. There are some that say they never really accepted partition, to that I say they’ve done well for themselves. They dont need a small piece of land.. So who is doing this and why??
Bulletfish - I dont know where you’re from. But your opinion of Pakistanis doesnt make an iota of a difference. And if you dont care about loss of human life after reading the comments of a few, then you have issues.
- Posted by SamaAishaa you write:
“I did not add the name of Mossad intentionally as they are mending ways with Pakistan and Pakistan too with them. Especially in the years of Pervez Musharraf as President of Pakistan.That process still continues.”
Interesting. Could you shed more light on the details? In what tasks did Mossad work with Pakistan? And how is this “understanding” developing? As far as I know, India has been working with Israel in countering terrorism.
Also, I’d like you to shed some light on RAW involvement with specific examples that can be referenced to some authentic source. We all know about the CIA. Please do not quote Rehman Malik who is becoming a clown as days go by.
- Posted by KP SinghThe purpose of the operation as I perceive was to eliminate those militants which were backed by RAW, CIA and KHAD.
-Posted by Aishaa
Can you provide any unbiased, independent (preferably non-Pakistani) sources to corroborate your assertions that these militants are backed by all these foreign organizations?
Seems to stretch logic a bit that the CIA would be attempt to destabilize Pakistan while the State department pumps in billions. Can you explain how and why that would happen?
- Posted by KeithAddendum to my earlier post in response to post by bulletfish
Swat deal was a trap to bring all the militants including foreign sponsored into Swat (celebrating their victory) and find refuge. That is why, I perceive, this ploy worked and all of them were trapped and taken by surprise when Swat operation was launched.
I did not add the name of Mossad intentionally as they are mending ways with Pakistan and Pakistan too with them. Especially in the years of Pervez Musharraf as President of Pakistan.That process still continues.
- Posted by AishaAnother day…another attack.
At least 24 people were killed and 42 others injured in a powerful car bomb blast at Farooq-e-Azam Chawk in Charsadda, Geo News quoted hospital sources as saying Tuesday.
For every handful of terrorists the Pakistan forces ‘claim’ to have killed; the terrorists strike back with greater vengence on the public. This attack and nor the previous ones this month indicate that the terrorists have been subdued.
- Posted by bulletfishThe purpose of the operation as I perceive was to eliminate those militants which were backed by RAW, CIA and KHAD.
-Posted by Aishaa
-Another pathetic, baseless, fabricated, unproven lie. Just for good measure you forgot Mossad!
Most of them have been killed in Swat and S. Waziristan. Remaining are people of Mahsud tribe who got astray by these militants of Uzbek , Tajik, Aran nationalities. This is right time now to negotiate and strike a deal in the best interest of Pakistan.
-Posted by Aishaa
-Like the same deal Pakistan struck in Swat then the Taliban moved into neighbouring Bunar consequently breaking the deal? This will really make the USA happy, that they are paying you to destroy the monsters Pakistan created and allowed to fester on its soil. You want to strike up deals? So you want it both ways: aid from USA and have deals with terrorists. Are you going to give them a share of the USA aid money?
Its with comments like these that my opinion of Pakistan and its people gets less and less. With this my sympathies also decrease with every bomb attack.
- Posted by bulletfishThe Pashtuns will never be defeated, there are 50 million of them, they don’t recognize British boundaries!
- Posted by fredThere is no doubt that our Army can wipe out terrorism (foreign sponsored) from South Wazirastan in few days to come. Now there is a need that our political leadership should come forward and start dialogue at point of strength with our tribal leaders in the area for a lasting peace.
The purpose of the operation as I perceive was to eliminate those militants which were backed by RAW, CIA and KHAD. Most of them have been killed in Swat and S. Waziristan. Remaining are people of Mahsud tribe who got astray by these militants of Uzbek , Tajik, Aran nationalities. This is right time now to negotiate and strike a deal in the best interest of Pakistan.
- Posted by AishaaAs a result of foreign meddling there is near anarchy…..caused entirely by the gung-ho invasion of 2001.
-Posted by Brian Cloughley
That’s right. Gung-ho invasion American invasion in 2001 started it. Gung-ho sponsorship of Taliban terrorist regime in Afghanistan by Pakistan army/ ISI pre-2001 contributed to world peace. Gung-ho planning for Sep 11th attacks from Afghanistan spread brotherly love.
Are you the real Mr. Cloughley who writes in pak media coming up with twisted arguments to justify Pakistan army’s sponsorship of terrorism and its imperialistic, territorial ambitions?!
Making statements like above lowers your credibility further below that of the Pakistan army and ISI you advocate on behalf of.
- Posted by RajThere Pakistan Army should look into drafting these guys:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/83 39549.stm
- Posted by Keith