The Pakistani Taliban are warning the Pakistani military that it faces a fight in Waziristan tougher than Kashmir where the Indian army has struggled to quell a 20-year armed revolt.
It must be a rather bitter irony for the Pakistani army to be dealt such a warning from an umbrella militant group, several of whose members it once nurtured to fight the Indian army in Kashmir.
War by a thousand cuts, the Pakistan strategic establishment said, referring to the strategy to bleed India’s much larger army and ensure parity. So militants were given material support to take on the Indian army which was then forced to throw in more and more troops in to the conflict zone, until there were almost - and to this day remain - anything around 400,000 to 500,000 troops in the area. Such a large military presence by itself deepens the people’s alienation and perpetuates the insurgency.
Is it going to be the same for the Pakistani army as Pakistan Taliban spokesman Azam Tariq told Reuters on Tuesday just as suspected militants carried out the third attack near the frontier city of Peshawar in as many days ?
Waziristan as Kashmir does seem a stretch. One, the Pakistani Taliban don’t have the cross border backing that the militants operating in Kashmir had, beginning with helping them cross over, to training, to giving them arms and then pushing them back across the Kashmir frontier. Leave alone state support, it’s not even certain that their brothers-in-arms, the Afghan Taliban, are backing them to the hilt in what must be their toughest battle yet since they turned against the Pakistani state.
For what it’s worth an Afghan Taliban commander on Tuesday distanced himself from the Pakistani Taliban, saying it didn’t support targeting innocent people. The Afghan Taliban’s target were only the foreign forces in Afghanistan, Afghan Taliban commander Abdul Mannan alias Mullah Toor told Pakistan’s GEO TV.
Two, the Pakistani army has deployed about 30,000 troops in the South Waziristan operation, a drop for an army with a size of over 520,000 troops. The Taliban will have to do much more to draw the Pakistani army deeper into their lair and in greater numbers before it can really begin to bleed them.
Third, there doesn’t seem to be any people’s support for the Taliban, at least not in the open and not in the sense that the Indian army faces in Kashmir.
In such circumstances, can the Pakistani Taliban really go the distance, fight a 20-year war? Perhaps they will target Pakistan’s cities and towns to weaken the state’s resolve as they have done in the run-up and aftermath of the offensive.
{Reuters picture of people fleeing south Waziristan]
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Really great blog and here lot of information about our country, thanks for information.
- Posted by LOVE SMSIn fact I already see you as a straight forward guy who because of his background appears to be very jumpy in reaching a conclusion.
- Posted by rex minor
I am generally a nice guy. But I don’t suffer racists very easily.
I see no need to bring my background into this. That you say it is relevant is worrisome. How would you evaluate my comment is I was white? And what you think of my comments if I was black? Would your opinion be different if I was Hindu or if I was Muslim?
If you want to understand me, read my comments. They are straightforward enough. Where I am from, the colour of my skin or which god I pray to is not relevant on an internet forum. I am not out to date your sister. We are merely discussing politics here.
- Posted by Keith(1) The numbers thrown around by Pakistanis of 500,000 Indian troops in Kashmir are very misleading. Kashmir borders both Pakistan and China with borders disputed. Most of the Army is deployed to defend the borders, not fight the Jehadis. As the Kargil War in 1999 illustrated, even these 500K soldiers are not enough to prevent a war.
(2) The modus operandi of the Indian Army in Kashmir is very different from the Pakistani Army. The Indian Army goes out of the way to minimize civilian casualties. Gunbattles with the Jehadis often last multiple days, as the Army tries to wear them out. Often these leads to officer casualties. The Indian Army does not use armor, artillery or air-power in Kashmir. OTOH, the Pakistani Forces have used F-16s, artillery, and helicopter gunships to fight their own people. There are numerous stories of massive civilian casualties in these attacks. Often the relatives of suspected Taleban sympathizers are murdered and their houses blown up to send a message. As a result there have been hundreds of thousands of civilians who fled the battle-zone (known as Internally Displaced People).
See this video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GErBdwhj Z4
Unfortunately these gross human rights violations by the Pakistani Army are not talked about by the Pakistani or the Western Press because it is supposedly for a good cause. The same group would not spare any opportunity to malign the Indian Armed Forces while not shedding any tears for the Kashmiri Pundits who have been ethnically cleansed from their own homes.
- Posted by Victorkeith,
- Posted by rex minorIt is important for me to know the background of the people,if at all it is possible, simply to understand them. This is in no way intended to evaluate their statements. For me chromosols do give a certain indication but this will not prejudice my opinion of the person. Every one of us has a different upbringing, culture, family traditions etc. etc.And I am sure if you were to know my background you would not look at the hints to label me. In fact I already see you as a straight forward guy who because of his background appears to be very jumpy in reaching a conclusion. I wish that we exchange views on the subject and learn during the process but not throw labels at each other. Thank you.
Rex Minor,
It’s not Dubya language to call a spade a spade. If someone wants to use language that hints at their racial superiority or suggests that the value of my opinion should be based on my race, religion, nationality, I will call them out for the racism they are exhibiting. Do you think I should value what you say based on where you are from, your skin colour or which religious building you pray in?
Anyway, do feel free to defend them if that’s your thing.
- Posted by Keith@keith,
- Posted by rex minorlet us try to obtain the list of people who are on cia payroll? If you cannot wait the time when the info will no longer be classified ,it can be obtained at any time from the retired cia agents. There are quite a few to give you this info. Or perhaps just listen carefully to the presenters and the personalities they interview and you would be able to rwealise the people who are willingly or unwillingly on the payroll of CIA. Instead of calling people racists that you do not know or talaban the terrorists (even hillary clinton says that there are good talabans and there are bad talabans) why do’nt you stop the use of obscene language which George W introduced in the world and get a clearer and more civilised view of the world which is far away from your cold and very much isolated land. You do not always have to think loudly and write without any deliberation. Your sentence “we spell his name the way he spells it” explains everything. Have a nice day.
[...] Pakistan’s Waziristan fight tougher than Kashmir ? [...]
- Posted by PACOM Week in Review Ending 15 Nov 09 « Public Intelligence BlogWe are in a difficult time. We know that. But we will emerge victors. We will clear all the RAW/Mossad/CIA agents from our region. We will hold our ground until the Americans tire and leave. Then we will recover. That must send shivers down the spines of some people.
-Posted by Mohammad Anjum
You are in difficult times and you will remain in difficult times. China is not going to come running to your rescue.
Where is your proof of RAW/Mossad/CIA agents in your region?
You are holding no ground because every week ther are fresh attacks from the Taliban you created (AND THAT IS A FACT).
How are you going to recover? Is Uncle Saudi going to open his wallet to give you aid?
Pakistan is already on a lifeline of IMF and US aid.
Everything you type is baseless and a pathetic attempt to appear tough in the face of your own problems.
- Posted by bulletfish@Anjum,
CIA/RAW/Mosaid were not involved in the suicide attack on your building at 0640.
That early in the morning, there is almost no one there. If CIA or some other agency was going to do it, they would have gone for maximum body count and waiting until the building was full.
All this suggests that the ISI may have did this to themselves, just to play the victims or throw a smokescreen and divert scrutiny unto themselves.
Does my conspiracy sound ludicrous to any Pak bloggers here? Well, during Mumbai, many bloggers like Ali, Umair and some others strongly suggested that India did Mumbai to themselves.
It seems victimhood is a one way street. When the States or India suffers a 911 or a Mumbai, it is always the CIA, MOSSAID or RAW that supposedly commits these acts to “malign Pakistan or muslims”, but when Pakistan gets a terror attack, why can’t we, as Indians or westerners say that the ISI did it to Pakistani’s? Perhaps even rogue elements of the ISI? That seems much more plausible than the CIA doing it. The CIA/USA is giving billions USD to Pakistan to stablize it and on the other end trying to hurt the ISI?
Give me a break dear Pak friends and quit being dismissive about the Taliban Militant cancer tearing through your country, while you sit impotently, idle with fear and stew in static complacency to maintain the status quo.
- Posted by GWGanesh. What recks Anjum’s thesis is the inconvenient truth that those undertaking the attacks are Pakistanis. While I don’t accept his argument, let’s say it was true and outsiders were running this mess, does that give the Pakistanis an excuse not to fight the militants (guys like Anjum want peace deals with the Talibs)? What does it say about Pakistan that its citizens are so easily bought off? And what does it say about the ISI which so easily lost control of these groups? If its true that outsiders can meddle so easily, what does it say about the state of Pakistan’s unity and cohesion? I’d be seriously worried about imminent collapse, if Anjum’s thesis is correct. Thankfully, I don’t think he’s right.
- Posted by KeithMohammad Anjum said (numbering mine):
“[...]
(1) If you believe in the idea that the ISI blew its own offices up in order to win sympathy, then you must be able to believe the idea that the Mossad and the CIA staged the 9/11 attacks through their Arab agents staying at Germany. That might have helped the US return to this region. War on terrorism is actually a war for Central Asian Oil pipe line.
(2) Someone asked why the US is still sympathetic to Pakistan. That is because Pakistan is sitting directly in the path of that oil pipe line. That is why it confined its attacks to Afghanistan.
(3) Israel is definitely concerned about our nukes. That is another reason why the US is sitting in Afghanistan, creating the chaos inside Pakistan. At some point they will use the excuse of extremism to take our nukes out. ISI building attack was staged to show that our nuclear installations are not safe either.
(4) They are trying to weaken our military by engaging it in wars with our own brethren.
[...]
(5) If they wanted Bin Laden, they would have taken him out long ago. But they are beating around the bush for some reason for the past 8 years.
[...]”
Arguing from a position of pure logic, the man has some points. None of us really knows what machinations governments and secret service agencies are up to, so one person’s conspiracy theory is as good as another’s.
While I cannot really comment on how true these are, I must say Mohammad Anjum has taken the time to articulate them quite well. It beats some of the incoherent rants I’ve read here on occasion.
If anyone has read George Friedman’s “The Next Hundred Years (A Forecast for the 21st Century)”, it is an extremely unsentimental analysis of what countries will likely do over the coming century. Many statements that would normally be dismissed as conspiracy theories have been backed up by detailed reasoning.
I guess all I can say is, I certainly hope all this is not true. Even if they are, Pakistanis can make things easier for themselves by being cooperative with other countries instead of adopting a war mindset. More powerful countries may then be incentivised to trade with Pakistan rather than manipulate them into giving up their resources, don’t you think?
Regards,
- Posted by Ganesh PrasadGanesh
Mr. Keith you write: “The list keeps growing. Now we add agencies that don’t even exist anymore. KGB? Really?”
Well, I was only mentioning the erstwhile KGB. We all know that it does not exist anymore. But when it existed, it was the CIA’s twin on the other side. KGB was dreaded everywhere. But somehow CIA was not, though both were equally sinister. And it was the CIA that trained the ISI during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. So do not blame the ISI. Blame the CIA for all ills.
- Posted by Mohammad AnjumCIA, Mossad, RAW, KGB
-posted by Mohammad Anjum
The list keeps growing. Now we add agencies that don’t even exist anymore. KGB? Really?
- Posted by KeithPakistan pointing their finger at someone else for their own shortcomings? What a surprise?
Maybe other nations would take Pakistan more serious if it didn’t go around the world with a begging cup asking for money all the time.
- Posted by SalasMr. Keith you write: “Conspiracy theories flow both ways. How else do you explain an attack at 0640 when nobody was at work?”
May be you should ask your friends at the CIA.
Most activities of the intelligence agencies are clandestine and one can only guess what could have been done by them. So they look like conspiracy theories.
CIA has the historic reputation of helping stage military coups, running secret wars, torture cells, making deals with drug lords to smuggle arms, assassinate people etc for American interests. They can even mislead their leaders into waging wars. George Bush sent his troops into Iraq based on CIA reports about WMDs.
All I am saying, and I have been saying all along is that ISI is no Red Cross. And so is the case with the CIA, Mossad, RAW, KGB or any other secret service across the globe. They have their own agenda and plans of operations which are not visible sometimes even to their own governments. I can only talk from Pakistan’s stand point. I know what spy agencies do. The current events in Pakistan look more like the CIA/RAW/Mossad collaboration. The TTP does look like being controlled by these agencies. And it is for a purpose.
- Posted by Mohammad AnjumI’d recommend the following link to everyone, which is very rational and open minded. Pakistanis like Anjum should read this and change their mindset.
http://blog.dawn.com/2009/11/14/the-conv enient-curtain-of-myth/comment-page-1/#c omment-32733
- Posted by Shastri