Does that U.S. “retribution plan” for Pakistan still stand?

September 27, 2010

flagburningOne of the more interesting details in the advance reports of Bob Woodward’s “Obama’s Wars” is that Washington had prepared a “retribution plan” in the event of a major attack on the United States which is traced back to Pakistan.

“While no contingency plans exist for dealing militarily with a collapse of nuclear-armed Pakistan, there is ‘a retribution plan’ in place, developed by the Bush administration, if the United States suffers another 9/11-style terrorist attack,” according to the Los Angeles Times. ”That would involve bombing and missile strikes to obliterate the more than 150 al Qaeda training and staging camps known to exist, most of them in Pakistan, which presumably would suffer extensive civilian casualties.”

“Some locations might be outdated, but there would be no concern, under the plan, for who might be living there now. The retribution plan called for a brutal punishing attack on at least 150 or more associated camps,” the Times of India quoted Woodward as saying.
 
The idea that the Americans would take drastic punitive action if a major attack were traced back to Pakistan has been around for a while, and is one that worries many Pakistanis. But I’ve not seen it spelled out quite so clearly before in black-and-white.
 
Some important questions then.
 
1) Does that plan still stand?
 
2) Does it apply only to al Qaeda, or has it been updated to take account of threats from other Pakistan-based groups? 
 
Take, for example, the failed car-bombing of New York’s Times Square in May by Pakistani American Faisal Shahzad, who said he was working with the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, or Pakistani Taliban.  While mainly based in Pakistan’s tribal areas bordering Afghanistan, the Pakistani Taliban also have a strong presence in the city of Karachi, so if you want to take punitive action against them, where do you draw the line?
 
What also of other militant groups such as the al Qaeda-linked Jaish-e-Mohammed , based in Pakistan’s heartland Punjab province and with alleged connections to the 2006 “liquid bombing” plot to bring down multiple airliners over the Atlantic? Or of the Punjab-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, which in the 2008 attack on Mumbai for which it was blamed, showed it had organisational skills comparable to al Qaeda to mount a spectacular assault, and which has also been linked to overseas plots?
 
The idea that al Qaeda was somehow a unitary organisation representing a unique threat to the United States has come to look very dated since 9/11.  Does that mean the “retribution plan” has also been overtaken by events?
 
3) To what extent can Pakistan prevent Pakistan-based militants from plotting attacks on the United States, when it can’t even prevent bombings of its own cities? Does the  “retribution plan” attribute responsibility to Pakistani authorities for failing – according to the United States – to “do more” to tackle militants?
 
4) How far could Pakistan withstand U.S. punitive action even if this were limited to its tribal areas? The country is already looking pretty shaky after devastating floods and the economy is in a shambles. A shift to civilian democracy that was supposed to bring stability has been sorely undermined by weak governance, which has seen the balance of power shifting increasingly back towards the Pakistan Army. Taliban militants have been trying to exploit political instability by stoking sectarian tensions, bombing Shi’ite rallies in the cities of Lahore and Quetta this month.  And anti-Americanism is already running  high, exacerbated by public hostility to U.S. drone bombings in the tribal areas.  The risk would be that intensified U.S. bombings could increase instability in Pakistan to such an extent that Washington would end up with an even bigger security threat – a nuclear-armed country slipping out of control.
 
Of course everyone remembers former president Pervez Musharraf’s comment that Washington had threatened to bomb Pakistan back into the stone age if he did not cooperate after 9/11. But I’ve never been entirely clear what that meant.  Bombing a nuclear-armed country into a state of chaos, or indeed attempting to invade it, are unlikely policy options for Washington as it tries to extract itself from two unpopular wars while also fretting about neighbouring Iran’s own nuclear ambitions.  Yet bombing suspected al Qaeda camps in the tribal areas could simply increase instability without eradicating militancy.
 
So where does that leave the United States and its “retribution plan”? Where are the red lines that would demand an immediate and powerful U.S. reaction? Would it depend on the size of the attack, the intensity of public reaction, or electoral imperatives at the time?  Does anyone know? Does Pakistan?
 
In strategic thinking about the relationship between India and Pakistan, one of the biggest worries has always been that both countries do not know where the other’s red lines lie when it comes to the use of nuclear weapons.  Even more worrying, they think they do. That thinking probably applies too to the United States and Pakistan - that they don’t know where each other’s red lines lie – either in terms of Washington’s ability to absorb another attack, or in Pakistan’s ability to withstand the U.S. reaction.  You would have to hope that they know they don’t know, and that the “retribution plan”, if it still exists, never has to be put into practice.
(Reuters photo: Protesters burn U.S. flag in Peshawar) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

Comments

@777
correction. Germany does not dictate European finances. German is the paymaster in the euro zone. The euro countries do not have a uniform finance structure nor economic policies. Despite this the euro countries have agreed to bail out the weaker to protect the Euro and this Unfortunately has put Germany on the spot.
I must say you do a lot of loud thinking. I am an observer and analyst by nature, no a war monger. History is full of wars and no one has yet been able to avoid wars. I have also not said that after 50 years the Pashtoons are going to attack India. My prognosis is that Pashtoons are going to role out of their Bunkers and spread across the indian sub-continent not out of love or conquer but to destroy the power structures around them. I could have also forecasted that the moghul empire would come down and few merchants from the European continent would take over and eventualy colonise them, but I was not born few hundred years ago. I guess you do not follow me so let us leave it at that. i wish you good luck in your hopes.
Rex Minor

Posted by pakistan | Report as abusive
 

@”But unfortunately, the potrayal is that Pakistan is a terrorist state. This perception cannot be changed overnight.” Posted by Umairpk

Perception is influenced by reality, to a great extent. Is the perception (of Pakistan being a terrorist state) wrong, when almost every terrorist attack (successful or foiled) in the world has links to your country? If you’re really interested in changing the perception, change the reality first. Stop your double dealing ways, stop sheilding terrorists under the pretext of “strategic depth” & sincerely eliminate all sorts of terroism from your soil. Once your country rids itself of the cancer of terrorism for good, the way it is percieved in the world, will also change.

Posted by Mortal1 | Report as abusive
 

Mortal:
“If you’re really interested in changing the perception, change the reality first. Stop your double dealing ways, stop sheilding terrorists under the pretext of “strategic depth” & sincerely eliminate all sorts of terroism from your soil.”

-Is India also willing to stop oppressing Kashmiris and ready to stop state terrorism there? And what do you mean terrorists, do you mean freedom fighters of President Ronald Reagen’s era?

Posted by Umairpk | Report as abusive
 

Mortal:”For now, just concentrate on saving your a$$es from getting bombed by US/NATO strikes.”

-Least concerned, as we speak NATO supplies and logistical support in Pakistan is halted. Lets see how far before they starve without food and ammunition in Afghanistan. Not long before they start begging Russia to provide them a lengthy and costly logistics supply route stretched across central Asia. CIS states are under Moscows sphere of influence, Pakistan would still absorb few border incursions but it will not be long before the squeeze will start to bite US/NATO.
A redline has certainly been crossed and Islamabad is on a collision course with Brussells and Washington. As tensions rise, DG ISI met with CIA director, it will soon be evident which side takes what position.

Posted by Umairpk | Report as abusive
 

@”Lets see how far before they starve without food and ammunition in Afghanistan” Posted by Umairpk

Naah, It’s more like, let’s see at what price do your generals & leaders sell your country’s “sovereignity” for (again) because at the end of the day, that’s what all this hue & cry is all about. It’s just the way it happened when drones started impinging your “sovereignity”. Your leaders started whining & beating their chests but ultimately setttled for $$$ & “aid” and later we learned that the Drones have been flying from Pakistani bases, all along. Same thing here, just give it some time. Once your Generals prop up the bidding to a desired level, they’ll not only open up the supply route but also offer bases for American/Nato choppers & jets. All this tamaashebaazi is only meant for regular folks like you. I’m sure, behind the scenes, the wheeling & dealing is already underway. BTW, just one supply route has been shut, others are functional.

@”A redline has certainly been crossed and Islamabad is on a collision course with Brussells and Washington.”

As we’ve seen before, in case of Pakistan, the “Red line” can be erased & re-drawn with a bunch of cash and/or threats.

Posted by Mortal1 | Report as abusive
 

@”Is India also willing to stop oppressing Kashmiris and ready to stop state terrorism there?”

Ah, I was wondering as to when would the finger-pointing start! No, India does not need to stop anything because the last time I checked, it’s perception in the world is pretty good & only getting better. As for Pakistan, obviously not the case.

@”And what do you mean terrorists, do you mean freedom fighters of President Ronald Reagen’s era?”

Did those “freedom fighters” plot & execute terrorist attacks on cities & civilians around the world? When I say terrorists, I say any group and/or individual, who is a threat to global security.

Posted by Mortal1 | Report as abusive
 

@Umair
“No one should dare to erect even a barbed wire across the line of control in the disputed region of Jammu and Kashmir let alone a wall”

Are you sleepeing all these years. Indian Army already has a barbed wire fencing 1 km inside of LOC in J&K and Punjab.

Posted by 777xxx777 | Report as abusive
 

Umair
There is already a wire, perhaps electrocuted and floodlit in certain areas, across inside India-Pak LoC as 777xxx777 mentioned. Pakistan is no special case India has across India-bangladesh border. Pakistan has project to do the same across Pak-Afghanistan border(with mines).

Posted by rehmat | Report as abusive
 

http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn -content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/fron t-page/tankers-hit-100

Gunmen in southern Pakistan on Friday torched more than two dozen trucks and tankers carrying supplies for Nato forces in Afghanistan, police said.

“Around 20 attackers armed with rocket launchers and assault rifles attacked these trucks. They set ablaze 27 trucks parked there,” district police chief .

Posted by Umairpk | Report as abusive
 

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/01/world/ asia/01peshawar.html?_r=1&scp=2&sq=Pakis tan%20&st=cse

Signaling Tensions, Pakistan Shuts NATO Route

-Pakistan can shut down NATO supplies, doesnt even matter if CIA Director is present in Islamabad.

Posted by Umairpk | Report as abusive
 

While emotionally this makes u feel good, no doubt, this is actually a terrible thing to do. Have u considered the impact of this on:

1) Aid: aid is needed across Pak for flood affected people. Contribution from western countries – government maybe and people definitely will get affected by this event.

2) economic issues: WB and IMF packages/loans to Pak to tide over flood crisis and bad economic situation will be hit.

3) Nov elections: US has elections in Nov. Which pol is gonna go back to people looking like he got blackmailed?

I think this is ploy by the army to take over the country again. They are creating perfect conditions for declaring crisis and taking over. This is an unmitigated disaster for democracy in pak.

Think this through Umair – think on consequences for ur country rather than US. I keep repeating myself but facts are US is a $15 trillion economy (3X the next biggest economy and equal to whole of EU) – they can handle anything thrown at them with ease – 550bn$ military budget per annum.

Pak entire GDP is US$180bn. Think! Forget ur emotions for 5 minutes and think!

Posted by nvrforgetmbai | Report as abusive
 

@Umair,

Watch your pindi boys wet their trousers once again, when someone from the Pentagon or Defense community pulls out their fangs, your people will roll. If the U.S. loses Afghanistan, then they really won’t care any more and don’t much to lose after that and that makes you lose all leverage on them.

Mushie rolled over, and so will Kayani. Your people just want more money. That black mail will run out and time is running out.

“Either you are with us or against us”.

This game won’t last forever, it will come to a conclusive end in the near future and the U.S. never loses, if they do, the damage inflicted on the way out will be massive.

Posted by G-W | Report as abusive
 

Historically speaking, when someone crosses the U.S., there seems afterwards, a huge barrage of multination contractors looking to “Rebuild” those countrie’s infrastructure. Time will tell. Saddam double crossed and look what happened in iraq.

Posted by G-W | Report as abusive
 

nvrforgetmbai:”While emotionally this makes u feel good, no doubt, this is actually a terrible thing to do.”

-Even more terrible is when NATO helicopters cross into Pakistan’s airspace, by then Pakistani ground troops fire warning shots in the air to signal them to return back to Afghanistan. Instead the helicopters return fire and kill three soldiers and injuring three others.
Now until those pilots get worried where will next meal come from and if they will be able to fly out of their bases with enough feul to make it back. Pakistan will rapidly increase the cost, food and feul supplies are the lifeline of NATO forces which will now be squeezed. On the other hand, Pakistani troops would be on clear orders to open fire on intruding NATO forces. Inside a completely free hand will be given to burn down and attack NATO tankers wherever they are, on the transit terminal, at the ports, on the highways. Across the entire border, when all Pak Army units carry surface to air ANZA missiles, no other chopper would dare to enter Pakistani airspace.
Just as the border wall gives you emotional support, let it be a matter of satisfaction for me. We will not worry about economy, if Pakistan is under threat. Save Pakistan, economy later.

G-W:
“Watch your pindi boys wet their trousers once again, when someone from the Pentagon or Defense community pulls out their fangs, your people will roll.”

-Anyone who f*ck around with Pindi boys, knows the consequences. Pindi boys are professionals, not a bunch of gangsters. Pakistan has said it would consider “response options” if NATO forces continued to violate its sovereignty. One option is to distribute surface to air ANZA missile across the border posts and deploy airdefense teams, I can bet no NATO chopper would ever get near Pakistani airspace after that.

Posted by Umairpk | Report as abusive
 

Umair,

Reading your devil-may-care comments about taking on the US, it appears you relish the prospect of your country’s coming destruction. Funny, we are more scared for you than you are!

Of course, if Kennedy was to be believed, the only thing worse than being an enemy of the US is to be an ally, so maybe Pakistan’s prospects are now improving :-/.

Regards,
Ganesh Prasad

Posted by prasadgc | Report as abusive
 

Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani, speaking in parliament, said Pakistan was a partner in the war against Islamist militancy, but would allow no infringement of its sovereignty.
“I want to assure the entire nation from this house that we will consider other options if there is interference in the sovereignty of our country,” Gilani said without elaborating.
———————————————————-
Response option
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anza_(missi le)

Posted by Umairpk | Report as abusive
 

I would love to see Pakistan Air Force in action, come on! A few F-16s, Mirages, JF-17s and F-7s flying Combat air patrol missions. Just shoot a few drones out of the sky, US will never attack a nuclear armed nation. Have some fun.

In the 80s, PAF F-16s regularly confronted Soviet jets across the same border. Let history repeat itself, Soviet Union collapsed and another super power is on the brink of defeat. Pakistan needs to escalate, and this lame duck government is afraid to fight back while we become a laughing stock of the world. A couple of drone strikes every day and all is well. Get the f*ck economy straight and open fire.
———————————————————-
http://www.defence.pk/forums/military-av iation/74800-general-beg-demands-right-p af-shoot-down-isaf-copters-drones.html
General Beg demands right for Pakistan Air Force to shoot down ISAF copters, drones
September 29, 2010

Former Pakistani army chief, General Mirza Aslam Beg, has criticised the government for involving Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani in the conflict between the executive and the judiciary, and also demanded that the Pakistan Air Force should be given the task to shoot down ISAF helicopters and drones involved in attacks in the county’s territories.

Posted by Umairpk | Report as abusive
 

@”Anyone who f*ck around with Pindi boys, knows the consequences. Pindi boys are professionals, not a bunch of gangsters” Posted by Umairpk

Tough words huh? LMAO! History is proof that your pindi boys are always open for business. It’s just a matter of “right price”.

@”Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani, speaking in parliament, said Pakistan was a partner in the war against Islamist militancy, but would allow no infringement of its sovereignty.
“I want to assure the entire nation from this house that we will consider other options if there is interference in the sovereignty of our country,””

Translation: “Hey listen, you Kiyani, don’t forget me while making the deal. I WANT MY CUT, I WANT MY CUT!”

Posted by Mortal1 | Report as abusive
 

And my prediction is, it is very likely that the move to block the supply route was designed to force the United States to back off from the latest wave of cross-border operations. For a few days, as Ambassador Haqqani and Fm Qureshi met with Sen. John Kerry in Washington and CIA director Leon Panetta with DG ISI and COAS in Islamabad. For next few days it will be clear how this plays out. It is very likely, Pakistan will shoot down a NATO chopper next time. This is not a war, both parties are playing it out. US wants Pakistan to do more, Pakistan increases the costs for US. Poor allies, they hate each other but still can’t live without each other.
O o BAMA be careful !

Posted by Umairpk | Report as abusive
 

Mortal:
“Tough words huh? LMAO! History is proof that your pindi boys are always open for business. It’s just a matter of “right price”.”

-True, we mean business.

Posted by Umairpk | Report as abusive
 

@Umair

One thing I am unable to understand is that when Pakis have 1.nukes, 2.ICBMs, 3.Intentions to create rule of Allah all over world, 4.”balls” as well then why are ur PA bosses letting Pak asses being f*****d hard and thick by US. Beats me. U r concerned for Muslims all over world and are true “thekedaars” of Islam and that too with nukes and ICBM then why is ur pious & brave PA letting ur country being raped by foreigners. Why not nuke US, UK, Israel, Germany, France, Italy, Australia, etc, etc?

I’ll tell u why because if u nuke every other western/Christian country then u will have to ask for help from India which is supposedly more shameful for you than asking for alms from west and in return u let west continuously f**** you people like anything. What ur faujis are unable to c is that war and hatred will never result in progress. But ALAS it is the ordinary Pakistani that is made to suffer to keep the paki fauji fat.

Posted by 777xxx777 | Report as abusive
 

@”True, we mean business.” Posted by Umairpk

You probably misunderstood, the kind of “business”, I was refering to.

@”US wants Pakistan to do more, Pakistan increases the costs for US. Poor allies, they hate each other but still can’t live without each other. O o BAMA be careful !”

The current scenario, unfolding in AfPak, is not meant for the Nov elections (It’s a forgone conclusions that the Dems will lose), it’s all about the 2012 presidential elections. Obama has a lot of heat on him at the moment & he knows that he simply CAN NOT withdraw from AfPak without showing that he has inflicted some serious damage to the terror infrastructure in Pakistan. Add to that the very real possibility of terror attacks against the west being planned in Pakistan (as the recent european plot revealed) & it becomes imperitive to eliminate terrorism in Pakistan. The problem is, that your army is unwilling to take on many of those terror groups & is sheilding many of them (Haqqani, Let etc) for “strategic depth”. So, either your army will be pressurized/paid to take on those groups or they’ll be made to sit on the sidelines, while US/NATO troops do the job. It’s as simple as that!

Posted by Mortal1 | Report as abusive
 

Umair,

You pindi boyz cannot extort cash forever. This margin of bilateral function will soon cease and come to an end.

Last I know, fuel reserves to wage any sort of conventional operation is only a week or two for you guys.

The pindi boyz are a class of professional grade mobsters, there is really no other way to put. I am punjabi too Umair, I know Punjabi mentality, there is much babar and talk of being tough, until you get your teeth knocked out. Pindi boyz will get their jaw relocated, if they push the redline too far.

This is a war that Pindi boyz cannot win and will not win. You guyz simply are outgunned in an extremely large way.

It is better to say sorry and get on with business, rather than lose a limb or something much worse.

At some point, uncle yanke is going to quit giving money ad start dictating sternly and the consequences will be made clear. I am sure a style statement will be made in the near future and pindi boyz will wet their knickers once more.

In a weird sort of way, you guys almost make this entertaining, like some sort of Bollywood Serial Show.

Posted by G-W | Report as abusive
 

What “Channa pindi” boys could do is to try to shoot down a NATO chopper or a plane and capture the pilot and crew. The US will not be able to do anything because of violating international sovereignty laws. The US will try to negotiate a way out and Pakistan can bargain for an exchange for Afia Siddiqui. For all one knows, Pakistan might try luring NATO forces into its territory to capture them alive. The US and its allies must be careful not to fall into this trap.

I am currently reading Bob Woodward’s “Obama’s wars.” It makes very interesting reading.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

@Singh,

Nobody in the South Asian continent should be under any illusions. Despite the recent economic setbacks and some recent chest thumping by up and coming emerging powers, the U.S. and the western alliance is the most powerful unified military force on the earth, with the most high tech weaponry and most sophisticated professional military.

At the end of the day, these guys can do as they wish, they don’t really need permission of any kind any where. Just because they can, it does not mean that they will, but I am sure that they have their red limits.

In fact Barack Obama has already pledged during his 2008 presidential campaign that he would invade Pakistan to take the fight to the enemy, if Pakistani State agencies were too impotent to help. If Af-Pak mission flounders any more and the 2012 is in jeopardy, the Right Wing Neo-Con Republicans may just force Obama’s hand, to show that he can flex muscle and get the job done.

This little fact is short sighted by many and may at the end of the day, bring the U.S. and NATO into Pakistan, sovereignty or not, they have a mission to complete, at any cost, to safeguard U.S citizen’s lives.

I am curious to see how Pakistan would respond to such a blatant large scale incursion, full well knowing the consequences if they stop the NATO forces from surgically removing terrorist outfits deep into Pakistani heartland territory. Let’s hope that Pakistan never pushes the U.S. into that situation, because it will bring the entire region into hell.

Posted by G-W | Report as abusive
 

@007
A minor error in your premise, your note to omair, the fourth ingredient. Neither Kyani has it nor the individual pilots. It is bad because the big brother India is watching their performance. Just imagine, even a military soldier needs the permission to shoot down the intruders crossing into Pakistan. This also proves that Pakistan para military or the regular army hs never controlled the Pashtoon territory. The left it to the local tribes who usually do not muck bout near the border posts of the para military people. Both the military and the politicians are making fuss about it simply to calm the enraged citizens as well as to raise the levy on supplies and to have some sort of ownership of the border.
Rex Minor

Posted by pakistan | Report as abusive
 

@KPSingh

I agree with G-W. The Pakistanis don’t have the goods & are in no position to shoot down a US/NATO chopper & escalate hostilities. The floods have brought them on the verge of collapse & the last thing they want is, get their life support cut off (aids & loans) & enagage with NATO troops. All this drama, is simply a bargaining ploy to extract more $$$. From the recent tone coming from Washington, the Obama admn is serious about cleaning up the mess in Pakistan. The only thing to be determined here, is whether the Pakistanis will be threatened/bribed/coerced to join the fight or to watch from the sidelines.

Posted by Mortal1 | Report as abusive
 

Here’s a sound bite of the tone I was talking about, in my last comment:

“Tough US warning to Pakistan on militant attacks into Afghanistan”

http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn -content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/fron t-page/tough-us-warning-on-militant-atta cks-into-afghanistan-100

Posted by Mortal1 | Report as abusive
 

@Singh, Mortal,

With regards to my previous statement, wondering what Pakistan would do if the U.S. ever invaded Pakistan, I have reading a lot of buzz lately that the U.S., if they increase their campaign into Pakistan itself to chase extremists or hit actionable targets, that there is a risk that Pakistan, just out of soreness with the U.S., will pre-emptively hit India with some sort of nuclear first strike, again, yes, the buzz is saying that they will hit India, just because the U.S. has encroached on their territory.

Obama has to tread carefully. We all know that the pakistani’s are nutjobs, when it comes to war, and they cannot be trusted, history has shown that, but when you throw desperation into the mix, some analysts are predicting that Pakistan just may hit Delhi, out of desperate, because the U.S. has violated their sovereignty.

I think if the U.S. is going to do something like step on Pakistani soil, they should do so acknowledging that they potentially will put all of India in harms way, because the official state agencies will become and act like a terrorist, if the U.S. enters their country.

The U.S. better have analyzed this very carefully if they ever decide anything like invading Pakistan. I agree with umair, it is not an easy game, since the state army will morph literally into a terrorist organization overnight, if they are pushed so.

India better work on that missile defence shield and it better be highly effective and operational with a 100% kill rate each time. Everyone’s future’s are inextricably linked here. Somebody farts in Germany, minutes later, somebody dies on the battlefield in Afghanistan. Things happen so quickly in this world now, anything is possible in short period of time and to manage, this requires quick thinking.

Posted by G-W | Report as abusive
 

G-W
“….. I have reading a lot of buzz lately that the U.S., if they increase their campaign into Pakistan itself to chase extremists or hit actionable targets, that there is a risk that Pakistan, just out of soreness with the U.S., will pre-emptively hit India with some sort of nuclear first strike, again, yes, the buzz is saying that they will hit India, just because the U.S. has encroached on their territory.”

“Obama has to tread carefully. We all know that the pakistani’s are nutjobs, when it comes to war, and they cannot be trusted, history has shown that, but when you throw desperation into the mix, some analysts are predicting that Pakistan just may hit Delhi, out of desperate, because the U.S. has violated their sovereignty.”

***G-W: Do you seriously believe that Pakistan would pre-emptively fire a nuke at India if US hits targets in Pakistan? Pakistanis may be nuts but they will not commit suicide.

Not going to happen. USA will never ever strike Pakistan like it did Iraq. The fuss is about attacking terrorist training camps. USA will perhaps do that someday but that is not going to be counterproductive. Pakistan will not strike India because India will not start the war nor USA will hit Pakistan that hard to provoke the nuclear response from Pakistan. If Pakistan does not fire any nuke India will not use too.

The West by nature is calculative and cautious or at least they try. So they study all possibilities.

Posted by rehmat | Report as abusive
 

G-W:
Typo: [USA will perhaps do that someday but that is going to be counterproductive]

Posted by rehmat | Report as abusive
 

G-W:
Typo: [USA will perhaps do that someday but that is going to be counterproductive]

Posted by rehmat | Report as abusive
 

G-W,

Rehmat’s comment reflects my sentiment as well, so I’ll be brief. As much as, tough-talking & rhetorical Pakistan’s leaders might be, I don’t think they are stupid enough to commit suicide by nuking an Indian city, in reponse to a US/NATO strike. Secondly, the US/NATO have abolutely no interest in invading Pakistan. All they wanna do is, eliminate the terrorists in Pakistan which are a serious threat to global security.

Posted by Mortal1 | Report as abusive
 

@Rex
You really have just no sense of humour at all. My post to Umair was a blunt taunt nothing more as he had once talked of Indians having no “balls” which we thought best not to reply. U live in Germany and I live in India. Tell me who would know better whether India has balls or Pakistan has balls. U ruined my taunt. Everyone else got the taunt and hence no one commented and were waiting for Umair’s reply. Anyway just practice some Indian style humour. :)

Posted by 777xxx777 | Report as abusive
 

As for USA invading Pakistan, that is an absolute stupid and foolish notion. Striking a few hundred camps in no way means invading Pakistan. When Pak officials keep telling the world that their state agencies do not support terror camps but at same time have no control over them then in such situation USA striking terror camps in Pak will be seen as a HELP to Pak agencies rather than invasion. And Pakis cannot launch offensive, certainly not nuke offensive, for USA HELPING them against terror camps.

As I said before also, PA generals will lick the lady’s feet and more than allow the tomahawks to fly Pak airspace and bomb Pak soil. Just wait and watch.

Posted by 777xxx777 | Report as abusive
 

777xxx777: “PA generals will lick the lady’s feet and more than allow the tomahawks to fly Pak airspace and bomb Pak soil. Just wait and watch.”

Pakistanis are very good at rewriting history. They’ll simply twist it and fit it into their history – “Bad elements were holding Pakistan hostage and the mighty Pak military was caught balancing itself against many enemy fronts and was unable to take on the bad elements. At that time, the US, being the greatest friend of Pakistan at all times, decided to help by launching its own offensive and destroyed those bad elements, thereby saving their ally, Pakistan.”

This is how they have it in their history about Arab invasion. They have made a total villain out of Dahir, the king of Sindh. Mohammad Bin Qasim has been painted as the most noble, benevolent leader who invaded and save the land from the evil Brahmins and Buddhists. Pakistanis seriously believe in the mantra – “If you can’t beat them, join them.” It is the mode for survival. See how Rex minor is worshipping the Pashtuns. I am sure they did “something” to change his psyche. Pakistan suffers from Stockholm syndrome.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

@Rehmat, Singh, Mortal.

“As for USA invading Pakistan, that is an absolute stupid and foolish notion. Striking a few hundred camps in no way means invading Pakistan. When Pak officials keep telling the world that their state agencies do not support terror camps but at same time have no control over them then in such situation USA striking terror camps in Pak will be seen as a HELP to Pak agencies rather than invasion. And Pakis cannot launch offensive, certainly not nuke offensive, for USA HELPING them against terror camps.

As I said before also, PA generals will lick the lady’s feet and more than allow the tomahawks to fly Pak airspace and bomb Pak soil. Just wait and watch.”

–>The some of those same analysts predicated that hitting camps in Pakistan could theoretically escalate and deteriorate into such a chaos in pakistan that the Pakistani’s at the last hour, as civil war starts to consume Pakistan and the security there runs out of control, that as a last action, while they go down, they might choose to take India down too….with a first strike. I am mixed about this, I do not think it would happen in most cases. But I don’t think its impossible either.

If the U.S. would do something this foolhardy, then they might as well complete the job and clean up Kashmir as well, because the next wave of terrorists, the next Waziristan would originate from Pakistan occupied Kashmir.

Posted by G-W | Report as abusive
 

@kpsingh01
The lady’s husbannd did send the tomohawks missiles over the pakistan territory in order to hit Bin Laden in his camp.Well, he just missed it and may be some spuds and some pashtoons civilians got caught and died. The USA got in reply several civilian aircrafts trying to knock out the centres of Power. Are you suggesting the repeat of the scenario. You are not a great friend of the USA?
Ever since the USA started the offensive against the so called terrorists, the world ´has seen more terrorism, more countries under attack and now you guys are suggesting that further attacks should be undertaken. I thought the USA, but not India, is now embarked on winning the hearts and minds of the people. Incidently, France is the first western country now prepared to negotiate with AlQuaeda!!
Every western Govt. is now ready for peace even with the devil, and you guys are still hoping that only force is the solution for today’s tyranny.
rex Minor

Posted by pakistan | Report as abusive
 

Rex Minor: “Ever since the USA started the offensive against the so called terrorists, the world ´has seen more terrorism, more countries under attack and now you guys are suggesting that further attacks should be undertaken. I thought the USA, but not India, is now embarked on winning the hearts and minds of the people. Incidently, France is the first western country now prepared to negotiate with AlQuaeda!!”

Pakistan is like an ant hill. From outside, it looked smooth and no one knew what was inside. The Americans did not care about it for a long time, until they got bitten by some of the ants. So they came near it and are heating the ground around it. Guess what has happened to ants? They are coming out more in the open, running in all directions. When they do, they know only what is known to them – bite everything on their way. That explains why all the terrorism, suicide attacks etc suddenly rising exponentially in Pakistan. This is due to pressure and nothing else. If you want to blame anyone for Pakistan’s ills today, blame the Al Qaeda. So long as Pakistan’s goals were confined to South Asia, no one really cared. This went on in the 1990s. Unfortunately Pakistan allowed Al Qaeda into Afghanistan and allowed them to fester there. The Tomahawk missiles not only hit Al Qaeda camps in Afghanistan, but also several ISI held camps that killed many Pakistani personnel. Pakistan was like a burglar getting stung by a scorpion during his heist. They could not scream out loud in pain.
Al Qaeda had global ambitions, while Pakistan had only regional ambitions. Al Qaeda is not made up of double dealing and duplicitous politicians. Pakistan is. So Al Qaeda could not be contained and what they did has led to what Pakistan is facing today.
So it would be prudent on the part of Pakistan to go to war with Al Qaeda and finish them off. If Pak military kills of Bin Laden and his supporters Taliban, the world might sympathize with them. If they want to keep them hidden as assets, the heat will only increase and become unbearable soon.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

@G-W
You quoted me in ur last post and said that I am some of those who predicted Pak will nuke India while itslef going down. So can you please pull up one single comment from me (777xxx777) when I said Pak will nuke India? If you cannot find one from me then I expect an apology from u.

@Rex
I do not mind getting a peace deal with Devil as long as devil remains in his den and does not interfere with my country’s affairs. Unfortunately that is not the case right now and will never be because no one can remain isolated. But ur pious pashtoons want to dictate and not adjust and cooperate and deny any sort of coexistence. In such scenario no peace deals can last for long. Mark my words Pashtoons can NEVER live peacefully (and will not let others live peacefully) until they start to accept coexistence.

Posted by 777xxx777 | Report as abusive
 

@Rex
“The lady’s husbannd did send the tomohawks missiles over the pakistan territory in order to hit Bin Laden in his camp.Well, he just missed it and may be some spuds and some pashtoons civilians got caught and died.”

Well ironically it was Musharaff who helped Laden escape in last minute from the tomahawk at that time. And as for civilian planes and US it was some very lax internal security on part of US airports. I am very sure that it cannot be repeated. As a matter of fact by your logic after US hit so many tomahawks and drones in Af-Pak region the US should have been bombed every now and then, but that is not the case. US homeland security has become so much tight that even their own residents are feeling uneasy about it. So I do not agree with ur logic, while I do agree with Singh’s logic and as the saying goes, “bhujhne se zara pehle diya jhor se chamakta hai” (just moments before dying out the lamp burns extra brightly). And it seems to be true in case of Pakistan backed terrorists.

Posted by 777xxx777 | Report as abusive
 

@777,

You misunderstood, I never quoted you as having said any such thing, I was referring to analysts, I have read about, outside of these blogs. I never quoted you as having said anything on the matter.

Sorry if there was a misunderstanding, I was not quoating anybody from these blogs. I hope that clarfies the misunderstanding.

Posted by G-W | Report as abusive
 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/10/02  /cia-pakistan-drones-escalation-diversi on_n_747827.html

In light of the NATO supply route blockade, it appears Washington is becomeing increasingly brazen with Pakistan and diverting military drone resources from Afghanistan into Pakistan in increasing numbers.

I think this is the style statement that the U.S. was looking to make with Pakistan, that I had mentioned. As the Afghanistan mission flounders, in the quest to destroy militants, I predict greater NATO incursions into Pakistan, deeper into Pakistan with larger variety of military hardware other than just drones.

Pakistan’s border is becoming increasingly irrelevant, as NATO’s mission in Afghanistan enters more risky territory.

Posted by G-W | Report as abusive
 

Further to the last posting, it will be interesting to see how Pakistani Army manages the increased flux of militants from the NWFP to the cities, as the police are under-equipped and the Army is not trained in conducting extensive urban warfare operations in the cities.

City folk better brace themselves for many unwanted visitors, hiding in the cities.

Posted by G-W | Report as abusive
 

I get the impression that you guys overestimate the IQ of the military generals and the political leaders. In fact, it is quite the opposite some time. They all do have one thing in common and that is CLEVERNESS.
So your theories based on strategic thinking and high graded planning are faulty.
@KPSingh01
The so called Alqueda leaders have neither indicated any global ambitions nor have any global organisation. But they have been urging and encouraging the muslims all around the world to resist occupation and suppression. we all know that the resistance groups so formed of people from various countries involved in their struggle, went into Afghanistan during the time of Russian occupation and watched and assisted the so called mujahideens fighting a guerella war. The USA and the western countries actively supported them, CIA,Pakistan ISI etc were also involved in these efforts. This sanctuary is no longer available to foreigners in Afghanistan and pakistan. Pakistan alone hve been passing on any suspect caught and even innocent visitors to the CIA.
You have always overestimated the power of the USA and the Pakistan army. Despite the advance technology of the USA and several prisons around the world as well as torture and inhuman practice, the Americans ever failing competence have not enabled them to succed. it took them several years to realize that they need to improve their image, change the foreign policy in the middle east etc and try to win the hearts and mind of the people and improve the image of the USA. Even a USA senator criticised Bill Clinton’s decision to send Tomahawk missiles to assasinate one man. Was the President trying to kill the spuds, the senator asked? Yes spuds, the Tomahawk missiles are not meant to function in a guerella war?
You are urging Pakistan army to kill the terrorist leaders to earn a trophy. Why do’nt you urge the Indian military and their intelligence network, most of it is headquartered in Afghanistan as well as Pakistan practically in all provinces,but have not found the ones either. The alternative for India is to free the kashmiris from the military suppression, for sooner or later the kashmiri resistance group is going to strike again and innocents lives would be lost. This is the strategic decision and not the strategic decision to employ weapons. (The modern history tells us that the leaders who opt for peace are the ones who are visionary and not those wwho are collecting deadful weaponry. It is a matter of time when the resistance groups are going to acquire the so called dirty bomb. What then? )
The info of all the impending terror acts were apparently in the system but the task of monitoring all e mails and telephone calls is a monumental task which the security apparatus cannot simply handle it.The ammateur shoe bombers are regularly visiting the USA without a success but indicate the security system weakness. The USA has a porus border with Canada and Mexico. Do you believe that the criminals are not aware of this. How much opium is now being smuggled straight from Afghanistan across the central Asia, Russia, europe and across the atlantic to its regular customers in the USA? There is more corruption in the USA free system than in India and Pakistan. Even the USA leaders have stated that they expect a repeat of the sept. 11 attack but do not know about the timing. so you see we are all safe at present not because of the super security system of the world but simply the would be terrorist have no plan to attack us.
@777
Your guess has no logic, since bill clinton decisionwas carried out within seconds and the decision he made was also in seconds and the info CIA provided to their President was also instant, but the tomahawk or the GPS system do not have accuracy over a long distance. Besides Bin Laden is a believer, even the missile cannot harm him if it is not the will of God. Besides Musharaf had no part to play in this act. Even George knew that Musharaf has no ba, and very unreliable. Unlike Tony Blair he lies without a spin.
Pashtoons are very straightforward and live with their traditions. They do not have any reason not to co exist, as long as you do not mess about with them. Their bottom line, they do not like foreigners unless they are their guests. They would even protect them when necessary. And the foreigners mean, the one who do not speak their dialect. Musharaf and his fellow companions are all foreign for them!!
Rex Minor

Posted by pakistan | Report as abusive
 

@Rex
“Besides Bin Laden is a believer, even the missile cannot harm him if it is not the will of God”

And everyone else is Kaafir. So u ASSUME since laden escaped missiles so GOD did not wanted him to be killed and when and if laden dies in a missile attack then u will ASSUME that GOD wanted him to die. That’s the trouble with anyone blindly following religion. Blind faith is far more dangerous than no faith at all.

I won’t get into any future discussion with a guy who is a blind faith believer and does not use his God given brains.

Posted by 777xxx777 | Report as abusive
 

@rex , @777 all this talk abt pashtoos been undefeatable is just a myth .There are warrior communities in every country quite capable to take on the pashtos like in india sikhs , gurkhas , rajputs , marathas who when it comes to war are more then a match . The terrain of afghanistan is such that it benefits guerilla warfare .if pashtoos venture out of afganistan for war they will be butchered by professional armies of any country . Maharaja Ranjit Singh ruled afghanistan , pakistan and punjab quite effectively . The pashtoos like brutality they only follow the law if it is ruthlessly enforced on them .The great king ruled on them well providing effective administration and rule of law . As for bin laden only fighting against suppression is a lot of lies which islamic extremists like to believe in . Bin laden and his cronies want islamisation and sharia in the south east asian segment , middle east , and europe sections of uk etc .PA generals consider themselves to be mughals incarnates who think they can do this just like mughals did it on india 100s of years ago .A lot of it is based on false imaginative idealogy and spread of islam leading to conflict of civilizations. US and europe will confront pakistan sooner then later over this islamic militancy leading to major retributions , As soon as alternative fuel arrangements are brought into practice the arabs will be bombed back to herding goats . ghostwhowalks.

Posted by ghostwhowalks | Report as abusive
 

@777
Then be it. Yes I have faith not a blind one, your words, not mine, but with full awareness. According to Immanuel Kant, the German philosopher, morality requires the belief in the existance of God,freedom and immortality(the three great problems of metaphysics), because without their existance there can be no morality.
Rex Minor

Posted by pakistan | Report as abusive
 

Bush era has huge retribution plan, given to Obama.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/20 10/10/04/pakistan_goes_rogue

Posted by G-W | Report as abusive
 

You guys keep thinking that the only options are military.

They’ve already begun work on a northern supply route. And even Iran co-operates with some of the NATO allies/partners, when it comes to Afghanistan. You just don’t see all that in the papers.

Once the logistics alternatives are developed, it will be both the incomes of Pashtoons and the leverage that Pakistan has under threat.

In the longer term, economics will be used to keep Pakistan in check. If by the time, NATO/US forces leave Afghanistan, Pakistan’s duplicity is detrimental to US and European security, you can expect some severe blowback.

The day the last Western soldier leaves Afghanistan, is the day Pakistan loses all leverage over the West. Once that happens, the gloves will come off.

If Pakistanis think the world is being stingy with post-flood aid, just wait till the US starts demanding real action in the Pakhtoonwah in exchange for the next IMF package (and we all know Pakistan will need one sooner rather than later). Next time there’s a flood, just imagine the discussions, the Americans will be having with Rawalpindi.

As for threats of fighting back. Given Pakistan’s defence industrial base and lack of strategic reserves (and we’re not just talking crude oil…which is a severe limiting fact), Pakistan’s war-making capacity is basically limited to a token defence of about a week unless their willing to go nuclear. And really at that point, one American SSBN could turn Pakistan into glass parking lot before the second nuke ever lifted off from Pakistan. Not a game, even Kayani is willing to play (despite what Umair fantasizes about).

Finally, for all those who dream about this stuff…there’s a phrase that comes to mind when reading Umair’s bluster, “Amateurs talk weapons. Professionals talk logistics.”

Umair, I’d have much more respect for your opinion, if you ever actually talked about logistics (the fact that you don’t reveals your amateur nature) and explained to us how Pakistan would survive more than a week in an actual conflict, based on its current resource base.

Of course, like I said, the US has no interest in going to war with Pakistan. They’d just like to take out a few bad guys in the hills who keep Obama up at night. If you don’t do it yourselves, then the Americans will insist on taking on the task, and if you don’t let them, they’ll apply enough pressure until they get the go-ahead. It’s that simple.

And whenever the US has been direct and acute in it’s pressure, Pakistan has always caved. That’s their history. They caved when Armitage called. Now they are resisting because they have some leverage. Once that leverage ends, they’ll cave again, out of fear of what resisting an unencumbered USA might bring.

Posted by kEiThZ | Report as abusive
 

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