Pakistan: Now or Never?
Perspectives on Pakistan
CFR on Pakistan: hold course (for now)
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The Council on Foreign Relations has just released a new report on U.S. policy on Afghanistan and Pakistan based on a study by a bipartisan group chaired by former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and former national security adviser Sandy Berger and directed by CFR senior fellow Daniel Markey.
As far as Pakistan is concerned, the report broadly endorses U.S. policy of trying to build a long-term partnership, while also aiming to persuade it to turn convincingly against all militant groups. It reiterates a U.S. complaint that while Pakistan is ready to act against militants that threaten the Pakistani state, like al Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban, it continues to support or tolerate other groups it believes can be used as proxies against India, including the Afghan Taliban, the Haqqani network and the Lashkar-e-Taiba. Among a range of incentives to build a better relationship with Pakistan, the report argues for continued U.S. financial support for Pakistan, all the more needed after this summer’s devastating floods, along with more favourable trade terms to boost the textile industry, which it says provides 38 percent of the country’s industrial employment.
However, the report’s endorsement of U.S. support for Pakistan comes with a hard edge, warning that failure to achieve results, or an attack on the United States traced back to Pakistan-based militants, could lead to a much more aggressive U.S. policy:
“There are several strategic options available to the United States if the administration concludes that the current strategy is not working. In Pakistan, Washington could turn away from its present emphasis on rewarding and encouraging long-term bilateral cooperation. Instead, it could undertake increasingly aggressive, unilateral U.S. military strikes against Pakistan-based terrorists deeper into Pakistani territory, coercive diplomacy and sanctions, or a range of financial, diplomatic, and legal restrictions to control the flow of people, money, goods, and information to and from Pakistan. This strategy of containment and coercion could be coupled with a distinct diplomatic ’tilt’ toward India, with New Delhi serving as Washington’s main strategic and counterterror partner in the region.”
The report also highlights the potential threat from the Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Punjab-based militant group blamed for the 2008 attack on Mumbai, which it says ”could eventually surpass al-Qaeda as the world’s most sophisticated and dangerous terrorist organization.”
“The growing ambitions and capabilities of LeT and its affiliates (and its ties to al-Qaeda) make it the ticking time bomb of South Asia. Washington should place greater pressure on Islamabad to degrade LeT’s capacity and restrain its sympathizers, bearing in mind that a number of these groups enjoy widespread popular support because of their humanitarian outreach efforts,” it says.
“Discussion of LeT should receive priority alongside al-Qaeda and the Taliban in U.S.-Pakistan political, military, and intelligence dialogues. Tougher U.S. talk must be backed by strong evidence. The United States should therefore enhance its own intelligence and interdiction capabilities to shut down LeT’s operations outside Pakistan and its recruiting activities in the United States and Europe. By sharing intelligence with India and contributing to its defensive capabilities against terrorists based in Pakistan, the United States can undercut any in Pakistan who still see strategic value in supporting militancy.”
Some comments.
As far as I can make out from the list of South Asian experts who contributed to the report, none of them specifically speak for Pakistan’s point of view. As a result, the subtleties and compromises that would be required in the kind of partnership it advocates go unaddressed. Its approach, rightly or wrongly, is therefore one of adversary rather than ally. And the questions Pakistanis raise about their relationship with the United States and the future of the country go unanswered.
These include, but are not limited to:
1) Pakistan’s sense of itself as a “rentier state” which takes money from the United States in return for allowing drone bombings and hiring out its soldiers to fight and die on America’s behalf. This is a view exploited by militants who think they know best how to save Pakistan from what they see as a collaborationist government. It is also a view likely to weigh heavily on soldiers and officers in the Pakistan Army, which although too disciplined to allow a rebellion from the ranks, is also intensely patriotic and connected to the feelings of society as a whole.
2) The “won’t but can’t” (or, depending who you listen to, can’t but won’t) view of the Pakistani military in its approach to the Lashkar-e-Taiba. At one level, according to most analysts, it does not want to take on the Lashkar-e-Taiba, believing the group to be useful and reasonably obedient proxies which can be used against India. (So far they are one of the few militant groups not believed to have been heavily involved in attacks within Pakistan). But Pakistan also can’t take on the Lashkar-e-Taiba without making the group even more dangerous, by driving it into the arms of an al Qaeda-inspired coalition. This could make it more of a threat to the west, to India and to Pakistan itself.
3) The fear of more bombings in Pakistan were its military to take a more aggressive approach; combined with a sense that the United States does not take Pakistani deaths as seriously as it would American deaths, if for example as many were to die in U.S. cities as have been killed in a string of bombings from Peshawar to Lahore, Islamabad to Karachi
4) The apparent (so far) inability of the United States to influence political discourse in Pakistan in a way which encourages people to see it as a friend rather than an enemy. Running parallel to that is the government’s inability to convince people that Islamist militants pose a real threat. And then pile on top the nature of politics in Pakistan — for an extreme version, see this link to a water-throwing incident between politicians, as picked up by Cafe Pyala.
5) The “hedging your bets” scenario. If the United States is going to leave Afghanistan, sooner or later, why create more enemies by taking on the Afghan Taliban? Or maybe more to the point of this post. If the United States is going to turn on Pakistan because it runs out of patience, why create more enemies by having the Lashkar-e-Taiba against you?
6) Then there is India, the country that is trying very hard not to be hyphenated with Pakistan, and yet which still defines the Pakistani military’s view of what it sees as its existential threat. President Barack Obama’s trip to India has left that debate in limbo, seen variously as a wake-up call and a rebuff.
There is more, far more that ought to be said about a country of 180 million people. And to be fair to the CFR report, it also suggests how much more there might be if the United States changes course and switches from “frenemy” to enemy:
“Americans and Pakistanis must understand that these options carry heavy risks and costs. Both sides have a great deal to lose. Containing the terrorist threat from Pakistan would be challenging if the Pakistani and U.S. governments were at odds, intelligence sharing were reduced, and U.S. officials were forced to operate from neighboring countries. NATO’s presence in Afghanistan would be jeopardized without a secure logistics route through Pakistan. At the same time, Pakistan’s fragile political and economic stability would be undermined by greater tensions with the United States. Pakistan’s military would suffer from the loss of U.S. assistance and restricted access to training, technology, and spare parts for American-made weapons and vehicles. In general, U.S. coercion and containment of Pakistan could accelerate dangerous economic, political, and social trends inside Pakistan. Americans must recognize that as frustrating and difficult as Pakistan’s situation may be today, it has the potential to get even worse.”
The report, with admirable transparency, also quotes its many dissenting voices, including this one from Michael Krepon:
“I do not share this report’s analysis and recommendations in every respect. In particular, I believe that the report’s suggestion that Washington has a credible, coercive fall-back position to convince Pakistan’s security managers to change course is misplaced. In past crises, when the possibilities of leveraging unwelcome choices on Pakistan’s decision-makers were far better than at present, and when faced with far more concerted, top-down U.S. pressures, Pakistan’s leaders successfully parried Washington’s pressures to take actions that were perceived to be unacceptable on national security or domestic political grounds. This track record, as reflected in Pakistan’s pursuit of nuclear weapon capabilities, its protection of unconventional military options to influence Afghanistan’s future, and its policies to keep India off-balance, provides a cautionary tale of Washington’s ability to successfully manipulate carrots and sticks.
“To hold out the expectation that, this time around, with such a heavy U.S. military presence in Afghanistan dependent on Pakistani logistical support, Washington can coercively manipulate Pakistan’s orientation toward the Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Afghan Taliban, Kabul, and New Delhi, seems unwise. Pakistan’s security managers have to come to their own realization that their policies have resulted in profound damage to their country. If they do not, the natural result, with no U.S. manipulation necessary, will be the continued mortgaging of Pakistan’s future, its distancing from the West, and its economic decline.”
Again there is more, far more, to be said. But let me end on a somewhat flippant note. People (countries?) don’t do stuff they don’t want to do because other people tell them to. Otherwise I would have given up smoking years ago. People do stuff because it is in their interests to do so, or because they choose to do so. I’m not convinced that the CFR report, with all the American bipartisan support behind it, gets there. “Do this or else,” just does not cut it.
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Myra,
I ask the same question that I did in your previous posting on the LeT.
How is it that you conclude that Pakistan CANNOT take action against the LeT without “endangering itself”?
You have reported yourself that every LeT commander, including those who did Mumbai, had an ISI handler. The Headley revelations, including the Washington Post stories yesterday and today, clearly prove that the LeT is tightly connected to the Pakistani military and the ISI, alomst acting as a deniable arm of the state.
Your claims therefore are inherently contradictory.
As to why Pakistan should act against the LeT even if it carries internal dangers – the answer is simple. The LeT has come close to provoking a nuclear confrontation more than once. The only state that can control this is Pakistan. By not acting against it, Pakistan is abandoning the duty of sovereign nation states.
As to why Pakistan should act against the Afghan Taliban, you refuse to consider the obvious again and again. I’ll lay it out for you yet again.
The Afghan Taliban’s core leadership has repeatedly refused to disavow support to Al Qaeda. The same goes for the Haqqanis. Therefore, any area controlled by them has a high risk of providing a base to those that will keep trying to attack the US and other nations. Therefore Pakistan has to either face the risk of a post-9/11 like apocalypse once again, or find another proxy which does not carry the Al Qaeda risk.
Why is this so hard for you to understand?
BTW, if you are not going to consider opposing views or respond to logical posers, then why pray have a blog where you post so frequently?
SilverSwOrd said:
> Why is this so hard for you to understand?
Because when the objective is “neutrality”, one cannot simply call a spade a spade. That would be seen as taking sides.
That’s why Indians are frustrated by this blog. It dances around issues but will not take arguments to their logical conclusion. When you need to keep a blog going, you cannot shut it down by arriving at a conclusion.
I can understand that, and I realise that commentary must necessarily follow ground reality. When Pakistan enters its next tragic phase, blog topics will be appropriately titled to reflect it (“Pakistan’s bankruptcy, and why the world refuses to bail it out”, “Staving off famine”, “Why is Pakistan breaking up?”, “The religious roots of the PA mutiny”, etc.)
Tell then, we can do nothing but wait and watch. I’m afraid well-wishers of the region have no real role to play here. We have to helplessly witness this slow-motion train wreck over the next few years. It is all so unnecessary.
Regards,
Ganesh Prasad
Ganesh Prasad
There is no conclusion here nor do I seek one.
I would not call it frustration, but bemusement would be closer to what I see.
The blog authors appear to pose questions and claim to seek a civilized exchange of ideas but it is strange that when logical answers and follow ups are made, Myra just pretends they don’t exist and reiterates the old questions yet again.
Myra A good article, and the clip of water throwing incident is also shocking how emotions run high when talking about government supporting America. For now the Pakistan Army is fairly pro-American but that can change very quickly if the US thinks about a massive retribution plan to punish Pakistan. In the past Pakistan has embarked upon unilateral actions to safeguard its interests. It is upto the US to decide if they want a truly strategic partnership with Pakistan. Unfortunately that is not the case, looking at Obama and Michelle dancing at the tunes of Bollywood songs i think they forget the thousands of Pakistani soldiers and civilians who died in this war. He did not even have a goodwill for a quick stopover in Islamabad and they think we will hand our country on a platter. This is not the way to forge partnerships and they are creating conditions where similarly back in late 70s a corrupt regime of Shah of Iran was propped up which eventually resulted in a revolution and overthrow. This corrupt PPP government is also useless only hope is the patriotic Army which can bring the feuding politicians to one table and think better for the country.
Ganesh:”The religious roots of the PA mutiny”
-Just forget about such a scenario, if there is one institution in Pakistan which is professional, resilient having strong foundations and capability to function efficiently and on merit, it is the Army. It has complete unity of command, among all its ranks and undoubtedly its cohesion is the guarantee of a stable Pakistan. Time and again this institution has pitched in to save Pakistan from internal instability, natural disasters etc. Now too it is providing the weak civilian government the full support and taking Pakistan towards real democracy. As Myra pointed out it is intensely patriotic and when ever there is a red flag it will undertake countermeasures to safeguard the country from any internal or external threat of any nature.
I am forced to point out some facts for the author of this blog.
While you (Myra) are full of complaints about US and their strategy towards Pakistan have u ever come up with solution that is usable.
What should they do?
This blog had 6 points from the Pakistani view but nothing new. Can u instead post 6 action items that the US/India can do which would change the situation on the ground in Pakistan.
At least, we can have a discussion around actionable points rather than “what about the Paki point of view”?
@Gentlemen
Let us calm down. Pakistan is yet a sovereign state and is going to protect its interests and not that of the USA and India. Pakistan should ensure that no foreign groups are either located or operate from its territory!
India knows what they have to do to protect its interests, i.e to pull out its military from Kashmir and let the kashmiris decide their own future. stop military suppression against civilians. The kashmiri resistance would disappear.
Let the lame duck president now tells its people how he is going to justify his pay during the next two years.
Rex Minor
“I’m not convinced that the CFR report, with all the American bipartisan support behind it, gets there. “Do this or else,” just does not cut it.”
True enough. Pakistan has made it’s choice. Why is it so difficult for American policy-makers to understand?
Pakistanis should read http://majorlyprofound.wordpress.com/201 0/11/12/strapping-the-suicide-vest-on-th e-kashmir-issue/
It takes on the Kashmiri red herring arguments directly.
@”looking at Obama and Michelle dancing at the tunes of Bollywood songs i think they forget the thousands of Pakistani soldiers and civilians who died in this war. He did not even have a goodwill for a quick stopover in Islamabad”
So, you would’ve been happier, if Obama would’ve visited Pakistan for just 4/5 hours, while he was on his India visit? Wouldn’t you be offended then, that he visited India for almost 4 days & Pakistan for only 4 hours?
You have to realize that (at least as of now), US-India relations are on a completely different level that US-Pakistan. If the US could’ve gotten a couple of billion $$$ deals from Pakistan, trust me, Obama would have visited Pakistan on this trip. But the reality is that Pakistan currently is a $3.5 bn a year drag on the American tax payer while India will be pumping $10 bn in the US economy. If you want your country to be in the same league, eliminate all terrorism from your soil (not selective) & build your economy.
Mortal, you said:
“……If you want your country to be in the same league, eliminate all terrorism from your soil (not selective) & build your economy.”
–>Not going to happen, Mortal, Fauji’s like their business niche to much. How can we convince the Fauji’s to use their position to lift their people and expand their own existing businesses to a massive degree? Fauji’s don’t care about the welfare of their people, but care more about maintaining hatreds and wars. Their interest is not about peace and joy, but keeping the existing business niche where free money keeps raining down from allies and friends.
The Fauji’s don’t want to touch N. Waziristan, they are still keeping their eyes on the ultimate prize, long term war with India and keeping just enough heat on the eastern flank to keep India politically in turmoil over Kashmir.
I am surprised that the council on foreign relations has taken such a kid glove approach. You would have thought with a floundering Afghan mission and an ally that continually has been found out to be aiding and abetting the enemy, would be enough for prestigious thinktanks like the CFR to single out and call out the
Troublemakers from Pakistan, but for some reason, they have come short and want to keep wasting U.S. taxpayer dollars, while their loved ones keep getting butchered in Afghanistan.
These so-called “think tanks” are either really stupid, or have other plans in mind and just tell us the minimum amount that they want us to know.
Either way, CFR has not incentivized Pakistan to deliver fully on the fight against militants.
In case they have, and we just don’t know it, I sincerely hope they, the west have philosophically speaking, put both feet forward, when it comes to surgical, actionable, unilateral action on militants.
It is clear that Pakistan won’t, can’t or is not able to take on militants, with full commitment.
In this regard, if the CFR’s intentions are real, I am off base and we will see the Drones going deeper and deeper into Pakistan.
The status quo is unacceptable.
Pakitan says:
“@Gentlemen
Let us calm down…..
India knows what they have to do to protect its interests, i.e to pull out its military from Kashmir and let the kashmiris decide their own future. stop military suppression against civilians. The kashmiri resistance would disappear.
…….
Rex Minor
–>Rex Minor, no more double standards anymore, Indian withdrawal from Kashmir, must happen with a concurrent withdrawal of Pakistan from Kashmir.
Please don’t hurl anymore verbal diahrea about Kashmir, unless you also advocate Pakistan vacating Kashmir. Fair is fair, azadi will be given from BOTH India and Pakistan, not just India, it will never happen!..it must occur from BOTH countries!
@Trickey
Good weblink upload! Pakistanis must read. It tells me hope is there.
GW,
Along with building a long term US-Pakistan relationship, the CFR report also reccomends a lot of “sticks” for Pakistan, if they don’t change their ways & keep sheilding terrorism. It reccomends incentivization of the aid being given to Pakistan as well as increased drone strikes inside Pakistan to eliminate the Haqqani network & the LeT. In fact it projects that the LeT has the potential to become more dangerous than AlQaeda & therefore must be reigned in. It also mention about the US stregntening strategic ties with India & an increased role for India in Afghanistan. And finally, it also talks about the retribution plan to eliminate terror hideouts in Pakistan, if a successful attack in the US/west is traced to Pakistan. So, there’s a lotta stuff in there that suggests getting tough with Pakistan as well.
Trickey,
Thanks for that link. I think I found the Arundhati Roy equivalent in Pakistan. Indians do not like this lady much. I guess this “Major” may not be liked for his honest opinions.
Rex Minor, if you can read in English, you should be able to understand what he says.
Umair Pk says:
“…..Unfortunately that is not the case, looking at Obama and Michelle dancing at the tunes of Bollywood songs i think they forget the thousands of Pakistani soldiers and civilians who died in this war. He did not even have a goodwill for a quick stopover in Islamabad and they think we will hand our country on a platter. This is not the way to forge partnerships……”
–>Wrong answer, the correct answer, if you were your own man, youngman Umair, would have been, if Indians can do that, we can be like that and better…that is the right answer.
BTW…what goodwill is Pakistan deserving of, when it helps the Haqqani’s, Afghan Taliban, won’t take on Quetta Shura and in many instances, gets caught aiding and abetting the enemies of American, while claiming to be an ally?!?!
Come on Umair, please explain how your Army can help those who kill U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan and you have the nerve to ask for goodwill and strategic partnerships and such? I don’t know what you have been smoking(perhaps Afghan Opium, I don’t know, tell me), but it has been destroying the basic reasoning and logic center in your brain. You can’t be stoking U.S and NATO failure on one end and on the other end be expecting an entitled pat on the back.
Richard Holbrooke was quoted as saying recently, something to the effect that:
“pakistan has made sacrifices…”
despite that he also said:
“an ally that helps our enemies”….
“the Pakistani’s know what our position is, we are not saying anything for or against them, but they know what is important to us and what is at stake, so let’s just leave it at that”….
I think, the U.S. visit, offering them a permanent UNSC seat, is the first step in India becoming a strategic, military, economic and political partner of choice for the U.S., ahead of Pakistan, especially with regards on the war on terror, militants and AQ.
If Pakistani’s thought it has been tough, if things keep going this way, it will get far worse.
India has not even lifted a finger, we are guilty of being progressive, successful, liked, and exercising embarassing (to pakistan) restraint. How can Richard and the U.S. not like India?
Rex Minor,
According to your claim, you are a German. So how does it matter to you what India does with Kashmir? If Pakistanis have some gripe with it, I can understand that. You keep claiming you are not a Pakistani (while your signature says otherwise).
How does letting Kashmir off will solve all problems for Pakistan? In fact Pakistan badly looks for issues to continue its tug of war with India. And they rotate the issues if one of them loses steam – Indian consulates in Afghanistan, avenging East Pakistan, Gujerat, Ayodhya mosque demolition, RSS, BJP, Kashmir, Dams across rivers that feed into Pakistan, Mumbai attack investigation, RAW and so on. Stone pelting season in Kashmir is over.
LeT has gone the way of LTTE in Sri Lanka. Initially it was propped up to cause trouble to an enemy. As time went on LTTE turned against its own sponsors, the Indian government. Rajeev Gandhi’s assassination sealed off all ties to LTTE and it floated on its own. India closed off all routes and LTTE fell at the hands of the Sinhalese army. Now LeT was launched by Pakistan’s military. And if Pak military is telling the LeT cadres to wait it out, they are going to lose patience and start going on their own. When they do, they will be too powerful, much like the LTTE. At that time, Pak military will have to fight them. Fighting insurgents is the hardest game ever. Ask the Indians and Americans about it. The more Pak military hesitates, the worse it is going to get.
In fact they are itching to launch another Mumbai style offensive not only in India, but also elsewhere. This is because the fools who run the WOT have been openly announcing (much to Myra’s grief) that they will whip Pakistan if such an attack happens. This means they are throwing the bait and the LeT will respond. After all who does not like to bring the enemy into known territory and frustrate them? This is the same strategy Bin Laden has pursued and done well. The LeT might want to divide up the cozy relationship between Pak army and its US pay masters. The easiest way to do is to set up a flare in the US or Europe and wait for them to attack Pakistan. The cadres will go into hiding and Pak army will bear the brunt of the attacks. That is sufficient to divide the two. And Pak military will have a serious soul searching to do at that point – to side with the Americans and capture LeT cadres or launch a Jihad against the Americans. That will divide the army itself into half.
One thing to be realized is this – the think tank in the West is realizing that the best way to contain global Islamic terrorism is to set Pakistan on fire and let the elements fight each other. In other words, Pakistan will follow Afghanistan and turn into a rubble through internal squabbles. It will be easier to contain the source of all the fires by setting it on fire. The increased incidents of suicide bombs and deaths in Pakistan are in indication of the direction in which this war is heading. It is heading into the heartland of Pakistan.
@KPSingh
Did I say I am a German?
The christians say love for the next one. I was brought up to show concern for others, consume less than what one needs so that others do not go hungary.
In my opinion Kashmir is the only issue which is keeping India and Pakistan at odds with each other. Quite frankly, it is my view that both India and Pakistan do no longer have the appetite for the land or the people of Kashmir. Both India and Pakistan have to gain more from commerce and peaceful relations with each other. I gather that you were not very keen about GW’s proposal to let the kashmiri decide their political future and let India and Pakistan support it.
I do not agree with your prognosis about the West and the think tank plans for extending the war in Pakistan. The Pashtoons run faster than the american machines, the rise of the entire tribes across the borders could knock out the entire foreign military now gathered in the so called war theatre.
No military in the world is trained to fight and make peace in a land. This is what the USA and the NATO are currently doing. The afghan recruits are now being taught english laguage, since the yanks found out that it would be easier to teach english to the afghans instead of learning dari or pashto by the marines!
All along you have overlooked other major potential players of the war;
. Saudis, very active betwee Taliban leaders and the USA
. Pakistan, ready to enter Afghanistan.
. Iran, ready to move its national guards
. China, not yet active but advising caution
Have a nice day.
Rex Minor
PS I am afraid muslims are too powerful in the world, the zonist propaganda did not work and Barrack has now polished up his muslim dress and wearing it.
@GW
You got into your fits again? Calm down, Ofcourse both molitaries of India and Pakistan should leave the kashmir territory. Did I forget to mention it? Sorry about it.
let us make adeal, why do’nt you convince the mob first and then get a green light from your leader in India, and I shall arrange the rest. How about it?
Rex Minor
@trickey
I am not very bright, could you please tell me what the referred the criminologist author on suicide action tells the reader? Does he reckon that all bombing actions and criminal acts are related to the kashmir issue?
Thanhs.
Rex Minor
@KPSingh
I have asked trickey the question about Major. If you have understood it, then please tell me what does the criminologist is talking about the suicide actors?
Rex Minor
Rex Minor: “The christians say love for the next one. I was brought up to show concern for others, consume less than what one needs so that others do not go hungary.”
Yet you feigned ignorance about the genocide in East Pakistan. I am sure you never knew about Chemical Ali who bombed your fellow Muslim brethren with chemicals that killed hundreds of innocent men, women and children. Guess where this was? If you are such a compassionate person as you claim, you will not be selective in your sympathy.
Geo-politics is a strange game. Why do you think Indian and Pakistani troops are fighting at 22000 feet altitude over barren ice desert? Are there any Muslims living there? It is a geo-strategic region, much like Afghanistan and Pakistan are. Give up an inch, you loose a mile. It has nothing to do with Muslims or Kashmiris or anything else. We have to defend our territory and integrity. I will agree to Indian government making life better for Kashmiris in the valley. That’s about it. Giving up Kashmir as a territory will be a geo-political suicide for India.
If India looked like Angola with vultures sitting patiently next to dying humans, it would have been prudent to simply chop it up into smaller nations and let some of them survive at least. But India has worked hard to be an emerging economic power. It cannot afford to let the vultures prey on its integrity. India is not doing anything to its neighbors today. Its goals are progressive. Therefore it makes no sense to simply let Kashmir go so that some Pakistanis and some Rex Minors can sit and thump their chests. We are quite familiar with these feelings for fellow human croc tears. Shed them for the Gypsies in Europe.
@KPSingh, Gw
tell me, how do you reckon a asuper power like USA or NATO or even Pakistan military is going to win an asymmetric war?
I am sure Mr Obama administration would welcome your suggestions if they are practical. Incidently, they also want to know how they can get out of this mess?
Rex minor
Rex minor: “I have asked trickey the question about Major. If you have understood it, then please tell me what does the criminologist is talking about the suicide actors?”
All Major is saying is that Pakistanis need to give up the notion that settling Kashmir will bring peace to the whole region. He says all the suicide attacks and bombings in Pakistan have no relevance to Kashmir. They are all due to rearing militancy by Pakistan’s army in order to use it as a weapon. I think it was specifically addressed to you and Umair.
Rex Minor: “tell me, how do you reckon a asuper power like USA or NATO or even Pakistan military is going to win an asymmetric war?
I am sure Mr Obama administration would welcome your suggestions if they are practical. Incidently, they also want to know how they can get out of this mess?”
They have changed the definition of everything. They are no longer into “defeating” the Taliban. It has been changed to “disrupting” their moves. In counter insurgency you cannot defeat an enemy when that enemy is as fuzzy as the cloud. But you can set up road blocks and make it difficult for them to run their insurgency. In due course, insurgency can be contained, but not eliminated.
They are not exactly after the Taliban either. They do not mind allowing the Taliban to exist. The only gripe is that Taliban is adamant about housing Al Qaeda. If the mission is completed without ensuring that Taliban does not support Al Qaeda, then this war would have gone nowhere. If Taliban gives up its support to Al Qaeda, the US and NATO are not going to mess with them. They only want to weaken the Taliban to the extent that it agrees to come to the negotiating table and makes a pact with others. Of course Taliban itself is a loose organization with many independent units that can go their own ways.
Thirdly there is Pakistan’s military and its ISI. So far the US/NATO coalition has dealt with these two entities as allies who cannot be trusted entirely. And these two are the foundation stones for supporting the Taliban as well as Al Qaeda. They manipulate the strings from above and have been playing a dodging game with the COAS so that they will leave soon in frustration. It is a big gamble that they are taking. If the Americans do not leave soon, the blow back will get worse. And there is a threshold beyond which it will hurt Pakistan, which is the support base for both Taliban and Al Qaeda. By eroding Pakistan, the other two can be weakened.
Now they are defining a 2014 time line in the latest NATO meeting. This means they are not going to leave for another three years. They are working on propping up the Afghan military and police. If that does not meet the expectations, they might stay even longer. At some point the camel’s back is going to break.
PS
Mr Hoolbrooke is not that bright either. Like me he must be also confused with the names of the so many groups. How does one tackle so many groups of resistance. He was briefed about the alquaeda ideology only and one man BL, supposedly living in caves. He was not aware of the never ending hindukush and the himalaya rqange of mountains. The FOX NEWS have got the guy trapped. He has now to live it out for another two years, or perhaps earlier.
Rex Minor
@KPSingh
But how do I read your thesis. The road blocks are being set up and controlled by the Pashtoons, not the americans or NATO, and we are told almost on a daily basis the nationality of the guy who has been killed. Is it not very cruel for the parents of the young soldiers who are being killed thousands of kilometres away from their homes without even coming into contact with the enemy?
Rex Minor
Umairpk: “looking at Obama and Michelle dancing at the tunes of Bollywood songs i think they forget the thousands of Pakistani soldiers and civilians who died in this war.”
They came to remember the hundreds who died in Mumabi at the hands of terrorists sent in by Pakistan. Your soldiers are dying for the same reason. Your Musharraf simply abandoned your troops killed during the Kargil war. They had to be buried with honors by the Indian military.
http://www.pakistan.tv/videos-kargil-war -pakistani-army-surrenders-%5BIS8cKBgNsO I%5D.cfm
Your military generals, corps commanders, colonels and captains are responsible for the misery your country is facing. And their seniors have the blood of 300000 people killed in East Pakistan as well.
“He did not even have a goodwill for a quick stopover in Islamabad and they think we will hand our country on a platter.”
If Al Qaeda had not attacked New York or US embassies in Africa, the US will not care if Pakistan exists or not. Pakistan’s strategic value during cold war ended with that war. At that time the US and Pakistan had a common enemy. Today, the enemy of US is the friend of Pakistan. And they can’t really punish that enemy because Pakistan is preventing it from happening. That should explain why Obama did not visit Pakistan on his way out of India.
“This is not the way to forge partnerships and they are creating conditions where similarly back in late 70s a corrupt regime of Shah of Iran was propped up which eventually resulted in a revolution and overthrow.”
The US has not installed any regime in Pakistan against public will. In Iran it did. Pakistanis voted their leaders to power to be puppets of your military.
“This corrupt PPP government is also useless only hope is the patriotic Army which can bring the feuding politicians to one table and think better for the country.”
The corrupt PPP government is dangling from the strings moved around by your army. It is now sitting on the back seat calling the shots. This is so that in the eyes of the donor countries Pakistan appears to be working towards a civilian rule and money keeps coming. Your military has found it better to run the affairs by using puppets on the string rather than direct rule. Musharraf has taught them what not to do. If things go wrong the puppets take the blame. If money is needed from abroad, the puppets go and get them. And the military can sit back and take everything brought in by the clowns.
We all can see this very clearly. We can also see that blind fold across your eyes that was tied by the military cartel.
@KPSingh
Then I agree with the author patialy. Kashmir is only relevant when the Pakistan military runs into Kashmiri groups, not those Pashtoons or the arab suicide groups who are resistung the intrusion of foreign and the Pakistan military into the Pashtoon territory on both sides of the border. The author should have benn selective and not put the whole lot in one pot. I agree with your prognosis on the Kashmiri resistance group potential strikes against India, not against Pakistan.
Rex Minor
@KPSingh
I guess you cannot keep calm for more than 12 hours. I am not a genocide expert like George clooney, nor am I able to have a record of the crimes being commited around the world.The UNO has. I am also not a fool to run to the judgement simply because the spin comes from the anglo saxon set up. Have we not witnessed colin powe lying in the UNO?
The former President of the US is telling the world openly that he authorised the torture. The USA does not accept the jurisdiction of the UNO against the american citizens. Mr Obama has ordered that those who commited torture against the prisoners and broke the USA law are not eligible for prosecution since they had the orders from the President. Now how about that? You do not have to always run after the authoritative Govts. crimes but first question the performance of the so called democratic countries, such as India, Britain and the USA.
Rex Minor
“@trickey
I am not very bright, could you please tell me what the referred the criminologist author on suicide action tells the reader? Does he reckon that all bombing actions and criminal acts are related to the kashmir issue?
Thanhs.
Rex Minor”
Scroll to the top of the page. Search for “Kashmir” in your browser. When you get to the first article/comment hit, you will know then, why I pasted the link and how ‘Kashmir’ entered this discussion about AfPak.
Sometimes I wonder how many of you are willing to get out of the Babylon Prison? I guess not many.
Unless India and Pakistan do not make an effort to free themselves from the babylonian prison, their region is going to become the theatre for the 3ww.
Let us try at least to upgrade our views of the world and propose solutions instead of following the one way strategy of the Govts. Believe you me , the leaders of the USA , India and Pakistan have failed to free themselves of the machiavillian politics and placed themselves in the babylonian prison. You are the future, try to break the stalemate and march on the road to peace. No snotty comments on each other. Thank you.
Rex Minor
@PS
correction; unless India and Pakistan MAKE AN EFFORT………
Rex Minor
pakistan: “unless India and Pakistan MAKE AN EFFORT………”
Actually India wants to have nothing to do with Pakistan. It is only an irritant from our stand point. We do not need Pakistan for anything. Therefore the gripe seems to come from Pakistan holding on to issues with India and trying to poke at India in order to survive. India has its barrel in Pakistan’s direction just so that the generals there do not get crazy ideas. If Pakistan minds its own business and focuses on its survival and growth, no one in India really cares much about Pakistan or its affairs. It is a house on fire. Therefore we have to keep our safety precautions ready. That’s all. As far Kashmir issue, I have already blown enough into the deaf ears about why India cannot let go of the geo-strategic region. And it is between us and the Kashmiris. Pakistan today has nothing to do with it. If you throw in the Ummah concept, I have given enough counter points to show that it is absolutely meaningless, considering the hypocrisy shown by Pakistan.
pakistan: “The USA does not accept the jurisdiction of the UNO against the american citizens. Mr Obama has ordered that those who commited torture against the prisoners and broke the USA law are not eligible for prosecution since they had the orders from the President. Now how about that? ”
Why is it such a horrendous thing to use torture for countries like US, UK, India etc while it is all right for Pashtuns, Tajiks, Pakistanis etc? Are you implying that the people you support are not civilized and belong to the class of barbarians? Afghans are famous for peeling skins off and pulling tongues and eye balls out.
I am not supporting torture. But criminals have become highly sophisticated and clever. They use human rights violation demands from civil societies and extract sympathy from them, while violating every norm and moral code towards others. You are a Muslim and your holy book prescribes an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth. So if some of your brothers engage in hurting others, they should expect to get it back from them as well.
@KPSingh
Because the Geneva convention agreement prohibits the torture of prisoners of war. USA is the signatory of the agreement, whereas, the Pashtoons or Tajiks have not. Are Pashtoons and Tajiks torture their prisoners?
with regard to your reference to the scriptures, it would be difficult for you to understand it, leave these for the muslims, jews and christians.
Rex Minor
pakistan: “Because the Geneva convention agreement prohibits the torture of prisoners of war.”
Geneva convention only applies to those who honor those conventions. If Pashtuns, Tajiks, Arab criminals are not signatories to those conventions, then they cannot expect treatment according to those conventions. Criminals do not obey law. Those who obey law are free to roam around. But criminals cannot demand the same right as free citizens to roam around. Those who agree to abide by the law can demand that right when denied to them. Those who do not, cannot. It is as simple as that.
Pakistan,
On a similar note, there are conventions signed by civil nations regarding prisoners of war, chemical weapon restrictions, nukes etc. Terrorists that you support do not adhere to any such conventions. They do not even wear proper soldier uniforms and do not represent any official organizations. But when it comes to them, they want all laws applied to protect them. And I do not subscribe to that. Criminals have separate set of rules and they vary from one country to another. Torture is standard practice in many countries including India and Pakistan. It is unfortunate. But that seems to work in some cases. Someone like Ajmal Kasab can laugh even after being tortured. And one cannot apply humane rules towards him. He will respond to the Pashtun and Tajik treatment for sure.
Rex Minor said:
> Unless India and Pakistan do not make an effort
> correction; unless India and Pakistan MAKE AN EFFORT
You *are* from the subcontinent, aren’t you? Urdu is your mothertongue (“Jab tak Hindustan aur Pakistan koshish *nahin* karte”).
No one else but a speaker of one of the North Indian languages would make that mistake.
So that’s why you’re so interested in Pakistan. You are Pakistani after all. Shahzad? (Prince, Rex Minor?)
Regards,
Ganesh Prasad
@Rex Minor,
Please explain the babylonian prison. you have mentioned that a few times….
Please describe and give details.
I hope I did not confuse the issue, I just want you to be a little more explanatory.
I gather that the mob is once again out! I even get the impression that the paranoid is in the second stage now. It is probably not your fault, we were subject to a cyber attack couple of hours before. You also forgot to the rules of proper communication.
I am not the right addressee for your feelings or emotions or rudeness, nor am I obliged to answer your questions. You can easily google or read the morning papers. Bu I am sure that if you guys were to read your comments a couple of times before posting it, you would probably reflect on it, become more serious and less emotional and perhaps not post it. if you do not agree with my opinion then move on and share your views with those of your kind and more or less similar views.
You guys are just playing with words, no new substance and absence of intuition. Some of you start raising questions as if I am on reuters payrol, even Myra is allowing you a free hand to spit out comments which are totaly not related to the subject.
You are forcing me to use the merlyn weapon of turning my back and assume that you have disappeared. Let me try that to see if it works. Bye Bye. Have fun-Rehmat special.
Rex Minor
Pakistan: “I am sure that if you guys were to read your comments a couple of times before posting it, you would probably reflect on it, become more serious and less emotional and perhaps not post it.”
Have you tried doing it yourself? You are the one writing nonsensical stuff based on what you heard on the streets of your ghetto somewhere. You provide no substantiating references on anything that your project. You keep coming up with the same round of nonsense in every article. If you are expecting us to butt worship Pashtuns like you are doing, you are in the wrong place. At least go and read the works of Ahmed Rashid and enlighten yourself.
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp ?page=2010%5C11%5C16%5Cstory_16-11-2010 _pg7_19
Don’t mess with Pakistan —By Pervez Musharraf
Umairpk: “Don’t mess with pakistan”
The very title sounds like a warning. Is Musharraf warning the world of any dire consequences? I went through the article. Musharraf is known as a double dealer and a very convincing liar. His deeds are testament to this observation. He portrays Pakistan as helpless victim who had no choice but to seek the path it chose. It is always others who are to blame. I see that reflected in the views expressed by most Pakistanis. This is purely due to his military indoctrination and nothing else. Musharraf turned double dealing into an art. Pakistan is being looked at with no trust by others because of what he has set up. He is sitting comfortably in London penning his views there. He will be shot the moment he steps into Pakistan.
Umairpk: “Don’t mess with pakistan”
The very title sounds like a warning. Is Musharraf warning the world of any dire consequences? I went through the article. Musharraf is known as a double dealer and a very convincing liar. His deeds are testament to this observation. He portrays Pakistan as helpless victim who had no choice but to seek the path it chose. It is always others who are to blame. I see that reflected in the views expressed by most Pakistanis. This is purely due to his military indoctrination and nothing else. Musharraf turned double dealing into an art. Pakistan is being looked at with no trust by others because of what he has set up. He is sitting comfortably in London penning his views there. He will be shot the moment he steps into Pakistan.
KPSingh:”The very title sounds like a warning. Is Musharraf warning the world of any dire consequences?”
-KP the problem is everytime I need to give you a history lesson, you must try to put yourself in a Pakistan’s shoes and think. Try to understand under what context Musharraf wrote what he wrote.
Lets dig deeper and look further, lets go back to the era of late 70s and the 80s. The BCCI-Bank of Credit and Commerce scandal that rocked the financial world, followed by a massive coverup by US. BCCI was by and large a Pakistani bank or to put it this way 80% of its people were Pakistani. It served as a banker to everyone from the South American drug cartels to Palestinian resistance groups like Abu Nidal. Look up the sandstorm report a secret British report on the bank, its corrupt practices, financing Pakistan’s covert nuclear program to money laundering and even CIA used it for arms deals. Israelis were also involved through it in arms sales etc. On top of this all this was going on with full knowledge of British and American intelligence community, US tried a massive coverup of BCCI scandal which was no less than watergate, the reason was it could have exposed some of the own dirty work of CIA. Fianlly US customs moved in to arrest BCCI officials in Florida and the bank fell apart, all its branches offices in 70 countries closed as well as its offices in London and elsewhere siezed.
Similarly, ISI was nothing till 1979, only after Soviet Afghan invasion did money and weapons came in and ISI became so powerful it became a state within a state. Now blame the ISI support of LeT on CIA, there is where the origins of the problem lies. Gen. Zia Ul Haq was the darling of the west at that time.
Now look at what happened to each of them, when the job was done, BCCI was eliminated. When the Afghan war ended Zia met his end in a mysterious plane crash, when the 9-11 happened fingers were pointed at ISI indirectly without proof and Af-Pak border region was termed as headquarter of a terror group Al Qaida (former CIA allies).
I am saying we are all in this together, no one is innocent. People like Congressman Charlie Wilson rallied for Mujahideen support and defeated one super poer (USSR) inadvertantly starting the decilne of another super power (9-11, USA) you can find the origins of today’s problems and trace it back to these events.
Pakistan today faces unpredented challenges and needs help from international community. True, maybe some of actions could have negative impact in the past. Today, Pakistan needs to ensure its soil is not used for terrorism, and its people deserve good governance and need to build a strong economy. That is it, Pakistan is not a threat to any other country nor do we have enmity with people of other faith. Time and again so-called allies have messed up with Pakistan, they need a clear strategy when it comes to Pakistan now to help put the country back on right track.
Pakistan: A battered bulwark
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dbac9da6-edd2- 11df-9612-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=rss#
-And KPSingh, you think Pakistan is now irrelevant for US, I reckon the US not only needs Pakistan to be on its side. Ironically, if Pakistan could defeat terrorists only then can US achieve a face saving exit from Afghanistan. If Pakistan helped the downfall of USSR, this time around too its only Pakistan that could help prevent a decline of US and ensure it does not loose face and loose the Afghan war. the rest id your observation and you are entitled to your own views.
@Umair
I do not mean to be unfriendly, but I must tell you that Musharaf is the wrong massenger for the message”Do’nt mess with Pakistan” which is accurate. He has the bloody cheek to come out with his fairy tales as if he is still the President of a country. He seems to be very proud to have fought in former East Pakistan. Fought agaist whom, the civilians and then surrendered against the Indian military. I wonder what is his opinion about the genocide in bengal?
Pakistan reputation has suffered the worst during his military rule and for wrong reasons. Pakistanis have no reasons to be proud of this man and for once KPSingh has given an unbiased and real cool opinion.
He was born in Delhi,India and failed to bring peace to his country of birth. He prospered in his adopted country and brought about nothing but pain, disunity and disgrace and finaly his own downfal.
In the end as a President he fell out with his former Pashtoon allies, the so called talibans, and was not even able to defend a woman who left her exile and wanted to bring in democracy. He left in disgrace for the west and is now loafing about on edgware road hoping to meet some arab so that he can him.
As an artillery officer he was trained to fire artilery shells at the enemy, from a safe distance. In my opinion he is through and through a con man, a fraud and definitely not a heroe. He caved in against the threats of a US flunky in Pakistan. he says he fought in Bengal but does not mention about the genocide.
Politically a weak Pakistan is his legacy.
Rex Minor
Rex
I agree Musharraf is a controversial figure, I fully agree with your analysis and there is a reason why he was ousted. The Army, and people were fed up of his policies, much like G.W Bush was disgraced later in his presidency to the point that a journalist threw his shoes on him.
I only shared the article Musharraf wrote, I have yet to go through it in detail and see what he wrote. For now lets not focus on the man himself and just see what he wrote and if there is anything substantial in his writing.
Rex:”In the end as a President he fell out with his former Pashtoon allies.”
-Rex, though I am not a Pushtoon but I was born in Peshawar, I know what it means to break an agreement with a Pushtoon. It all started when in 2004 he sent in the first Pakistan Army formations into the Pashtoon lands. Traditionally these brave warriors looked after Pakistan’s western border and Pakistan Army never had to worry about deployment there. The tribal pushtoons had enough weapons and fighting skill to defend the border. Today many of those pushtoons are rebellious and I still do not fully understand the problem. Can you help me here, I would question why do some of TTP groups attack innocent people? Isn’t it wrong? and when they do, outsiders say look this is suppose to be the religion of peace. Whatever the enmity, we need to settle down and workaround the situation.