Pakistan: Now or Never?
Perspectives on Pakistan
CFR on Pakistan: hold course (for now)
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The Council on Foreign Relations has just released a new report on U.S. policy on Afghanistan and Pakistan based on a study by a bipartisan group chaired by former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and former national security adviser Sandy Berger and directed by CFR senior fellow Daniel Markey.
As far as Pakistan is concerned, the report broadly endorses U.S. policy of trying to build a long-term partnership, while also aiming to persuade it to turn convincingly against all militant groups. It reiterates a U.S. complaint that while Pakistan is ready to act against militants that threaten the Pakistani state, like al Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban, it continues to support or tolerate other groups it believes can be used as proxies against India, including the Afghan Taliban, the Haqqani network and the Lashkar-e-Taiba. Among a range of incentives to build a better relationship with Pakistan, the report argues for continued U.S. financial support for Pakistan, all the more needed after this summer’s devastating floods, along with more favourable trade terms to boost the textile industry, which it says provides 38 percent of the country’s industrial employment.
However, the report’s endorsement of U.S. support for Pakistan comes with a hard edge, warning that failure to achieve results, or an attack on the United States traced back to Pakistan-based militants, could lead to a much more aggressive U.S. policy:
“There are several strategic options available to the United States if the administration concludes that the current strategy is not working. In Pakistan, Washington could turn away from its present emphasis on rewarding and encouraging long-term bilateral cooperation. Instead, it could undertake increasingly aggressive, unilateral U.S. military strikes against Pakistan-based terrorists deeper into Pakistani territory, coercive diplomacy and sanctions, or a range of financial, diplomatic, and legal restrictions to control the flow of people, money, goods, and information to and from Pakistan. This strategy of containment and coercion could be coupled with a distinct diplomatic ’tilt’ toward India, with New Delhi serving as Washington’s main strategic and counterterror partner in the region.”
The report also highlights the potential threat from the Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Punjab-based militant group blamed for the 2008 attack on Mumbai, which it says ”could eventually surpass al-Qaeda as the world’s most sophisticated and dangerous terrorist organization.”
“The growing ambitions and capabilities of LeT and its affiliates (and its ties to al-Qaeda) make it the ticking time bomb of South Asia. Washington should place greater pressure on Islamabad to degrade LeT’s capacity and restrain its sympathizers, bearing in mind that a number of these groups enjoy widespread popular support because of their humanitarian outreach efforts,” it says.
“Discussion of LeT should receive priority alongside al-Qaeda and the Taliban in U.S.-Pakistan political, military, and intelligence dialogues. Tougher U.S. talk must be backed by strong evidence. The United States should therefore enhance its own intelligence and interdiction capabilities to shut down LeT’s operations outside Pakistan and its recruiting activities in the United States and Europe. By sharing intelligence with India and contributing to its defensive capabilities against terrorists based in Pakistan, the United States can undercut any in Pakistan who still see strategic value in supporting militancy.”
Some comments.
As far as I can make out from the list of South Asian experts who contributed to the report, none of them specifically speak for Pakistan’s point of view. As a result, the subtleties and compromises that would be required in the kind of partnership it advocates go unaddressed. Its approach, rightly or wrongly, is therefore one of adversary rather than ally. And the questions Pakistanis raise about their relationship with the United States and the future of the country go unanswered.
These include, but are not limited to:
1) Pakistan’s sense of itself as a “rentier state” which takes money from the United States in return for allowing drone bombings and hiring out its soldiers to fight and die on America’s behalf. This is a view exploited by militants who think they know best how to save Pakistan from what they see as a collaborationist government. It is also a view likely to weigh heavily on soldiers and officers in the Pakistan Army, which although too disciplined to allow a rebellion from the ranks, is also intensely patriotic and connected to the feelings of society as a whole.
2) The “won’t but can’t” (or, depending who you listen to, can’t but won’t) view of the Pakistani military in its approach to the Lashkar-e-Taiba. At one level, according to most analysts, it does not want to take on the Lashkar-e-Taiba, believing the group to be useful and reasonably obedient proxies which can be used against India. (So far they are one of the few militant groups not believed to have been heavily involved in attacks within Pakistan). But Pakistan also can’t take on the Lashkar-e-Taiba without making the group even more dangerous, by driving it into the arms of an al Qaeda-inspired coalition. This could make it more of a threat to the west, to India and to Pakistan itself.
3) The fear of more bombings in Pakistan were its military to take a more aggressive approach; combined with a sense that the United States does not take Pakistani deaths as seriously as it would American deaths, if for example as many were to die in U.S. cities as have been killed in a string of bombings from Peshawar to Lahore, Islamabad to Karachi
4) The apparent (so far) inability of the United States to influence political discourse in Pakistan in a way which encourages people to see it as a friend rather than an enemy. Running parallel to that is the government’s inability to convince people that Islamist militants pose a real threat. And then pile on top the nature of politics in Pakistan — for an extreme version, see this link to a water-throwing incident between politicians, as picked up by Cafe Pyala.
5) The “hedging your bets” scenario. If the United States is going to leave Afghanistan, sooner or later, why create more enemies by taking on the Afghan Taliban? Or maybe more to the point of this post. If the United States is going to turn on Pakistan because it runs out of patience, why create more enemies by having the Lashkar-e-Taiba against you?
6) Then there is India, the country that is trying very hard not to be hyphenated with Pakistan, and yet which still defines the Pakistani military’s view of what it sees as its existential threat. President Barack Obama’s trip to India has left that debate in limbo, seen variously as a wake-up call and a rebuff.
There is more, far more that ought to be said about a country of 180 million people. And to be fair to the CFR report, it also suggests how much more there might be if the United States changes course and switches from “frenemy” to enemy:
“Americans and Pakistanis must understand that these options carry heavy risks and costs. Both sides have a great deal to lose. Containing the terrorist threat from Pakistan would be challenging if the Pakistani and U.S. governments were at odds, intelligence sharing were reduced, and U.S. officials were forced to operate from neighboring countries. NATO’s presence in Afghanistan would be jeopardized without a secure logistics route through Pakistan. At the same time, Pakistan’s fragile political and economic stability would be undermined by greater tensions with the United States. Pakistan’s military would suffer from the loss of U.S. assistance and restricted access to training, technology, and spare parts for American-made weapons and vehicles. In general, U.S. coercion and containment of Pakistan could accelerate dangerous economic, political, and social trends inside Pakistan. Americans must recognize that as frustrating and difficult as Pakistan’s situation may be today, it has the potential to get even worse.”
The report, with admirable transparency, also quotes its many dissenting voices, including this one from Michael Krepon:
“I do not share this report’s analysis and recommendations in every respect. In particular, I believe that the report’s suggestion that Washington has a credible, coercive fall-back position to convince Pakistan’s security managers to change course is misplaced. In past crises, when the possibilities of leveraging unwelcome choices on Pakistan’s decision-makers were far better than at present, and when faced with far more concerted, top-down U.S. pressures, Pakistan’s leaders successfully parried Washington’s pressures to take actions that were perceived to be unacceptable on national security or domestic political grounds. This track record, as reflected in Pakistan’s pursuit of nuclear weapon capabilities, its protection of unconventional military options to influence Afghanistan’s future, and its policies to keep India off-balance, provides a cautionary tale of Washington’s ability to successfully manipulate carrots and sticks.
“To hold out the expectation that, this time around, with such a heavy U.S. military presence in Afghanistan dependent on Pakistani logistical support, Washington can coercively manipulate Pakistan’s orientation toward the Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Afghan Taliban, Kabul, and New Delhi, seems unwise. Pakistan’s security managers have to come to their own realization that their policies have resulted in profound damage to their country. If they do not, the natural result, with no U.S. manipulation necessary, will be the continued mortgaging of Pakistan’s future, its distancing from the West, and its economic decline.”
Again there is more, far more, to be said. But let me end on a somewhat flippant note. People (countries?) don’t do stuff they don’t want to do because other people tell them to. Otherwise I would have given up smoking years ago. People do stuff because it is in their interests to do so, or because they choose to do so. I’m not convinced that the CFR report, with all the American bipartisan support behind it, gets there. “Do this or else,” just does not cut it.
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The following article might excite the likes of Umair. It is about Karachi burning. In that, there is a line that talks about the might of the Pakistani army which killed “several thousand” people. Go have a look at it yourself.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/19/world/ asia/19karachi.html?_r=1&hp
Quote: In 1992, the army moved into Karachi to suppress it, accusing it of a four-year rampage of torture and murder. During what amounted to a two-year occupation by the army, “several thousand” people were killed, according to accounts at the time. : Unquote
And these guys are pointing their fingers at other militaries. Jinnah founded Pakistan. Pakistani military will liquidate it. In both cases Muslim citizens are the victims.
It’s always easy to point fingers at others, when confronted with your own sins & misdeeds. When Pakistanis talk about the “80,000 mass graves in Kashmir”, Indians can turn around & point at the 3 million murdered in Bangladesh by the PA (official figures) & say “talk to us when the Indian army reaches at least a million” BUT that would be an absolutely immoral & inhuman thing to do. At the end of the day, we’re all human beings & we should not shy away from injustices on our fellow humans, irrespective of religion, race or nationality. Atrocities should be stopped, no matter where they happen, Kashmir, Gaza, Balochistan or Darfur.
I’ve tried to read the text and search for hidden meanings, but nothing that Sarmila Bose has written negates the reports of the genocide by the Pakistani army. OK, so there were other militant groups who were also fighting at the time, and the situation was not as clear-cut as one may think. Interesting to see it being interpreted as an exoneration of the Pakistani army. It’s clearly not that.
Let’s face facts and move on from there, shall we? Denial of history gets us nowhere.
Also, you notice Indians do not deny army heavy-handedness in Kashmir and the possibility of human rights violations. Indians want accountability of their armed forces personnel in Kashmir. If we can have that attitude mirrored by the other participants, that would be a great leap forward in the debate, I think.
Regards,
Ganesh Prasad
Here is another truth that was kept under the wrap by the Pak military. It has finally admitted that Pak army regulars were involved in Kargil war, after denying it all these years. I wonder what changed their minds.
http://news.outlookindia.com/item.aspx?7 01616
Guys,
Come on we need to cut ice here. Theory of relativity clearly specifies that history cannot be modified (and leave metaphysics to Rex). So why go on bicker about past. We all made mistakes. But if Pakistan is ready to move on then Indians should be fine. Sign LOC into border and resolve other minor issues first. Go step by step. Why start bickering again. Stop accusing each other for no one has a clean history. But we can definitely shape a clean future.
Hope the message of peace gets accross. And lets for now discuss other issues between India and Pakistan. I would like to start with water sharing issues. Any one has any other issues (of course Kashmir will be discussed last when we have credible trust between us, as per Umair) to be discussed first?
since Pakistan Army calls the shots in Pakistan on Defense & foreign policy and Indians tend to be severely allergic to the Pakistan army. I am wondering how is it possible to create the goodwill?
As for Sarmila Bose, she is not a nobody, she is the niece of Netaji Subash Chandra Bose and no ordinary Indian. I woulg give her a lot more credibility.
Umair
One does not even need Rex’s “mental intuition” to see that the major player (let me call that way taking your views into consideration) in B’desh was Pakistan Army. What cannot be arrived at is the # killed. Highest end is 3million, I can agree that # seems rubbish based on my “mental intuition” (borrowing Rex’s expression). Let us put it at 10times lower # which has also been cited by a Western historian.
After giving hell to Indians and Indian Army and Muktibahini, you should not stop yourself from making a clear cut statement that PA was the major player. There is so much information out there about B’desh that it just does not make sense to hang by weak threads of isolated articles, be that by daughter of SC Bose. Sarmila Bose cannot wipe PA’s atrocities nor did she try. She just says that the situation was complicated and there were several things happening at that time. But that DOES NOT amount to why PA should not viewed as the major player.
Why would Pakistan media apologize for B’desh? What made Pakistani judiciary write that report? Have you never seen credible Pakistani reporter saying that PA was responsible for senseless killings?
“As for Sarmila Bose, she is not a nobody, she is the niece of Netaji Subash Chandra Bose and no ordinary Indian. I woulg give her a lot more credibility.”
***I cannot write her off like a propagandist, but your interpretation that she should be given credit since she is the daughter of SC Bose is wrong. You cannot give anyone credit (or discredit) for one’s parents.
I can see you are patriotic, and so is everyone else, but just make sure you take a stand that does not sound inhuman. Call a spade a spade.
“since Pakistan Army calls the shots in Pakistan on Defense & foreign policy and Indians tend to be severely allergic to the Pakistan army. I am wondering how is it possible to create the goodwill?”
***The problem here is the difference between the stand of Indian and Pakistani posters. What is preventing that?
What we need to do as Mortal said:
“At the end of the day, we’re all human beings & we should not shy away from injustices on our fellow humans, irrespective of religion, race or nationality. Atrocities should be stopped, no matter where they happen, Kashmir, Gaza, Balochistan or Darfur.”
I have not seen Indians playing this game that IA did not kill Kashmiris. In my view in general the stand of Indian posters about kashmir is that IA went in Kashmir to take on Pakistan-based militants. Majority believe that IA’s actions led to deaths of kashmiris. The situation is complicated in Kashmir as well with militants using IA uniforms as well forcing Kashmiri youth into militancy. It is all there in reports. Latter could be reasons as well but minor ones and part of the overall game by gun-totting guys and those who control them. HOWEVER, the ultimate blame on killing falls on IA.
You do the same for PA in B’desh. Anything less than that is unreasonable as a good human.
Thanks
@”since Pakistan Army calls the shots in Pakistan on Defense & foreign policy and Indians tend to be severely allergic to the Pakistan army.” Posted by Umairpk
You’re damn right, Indians are allergic to the Pakistani army. Wouldn’t you be, to an entity which has targeted your innocent civilians, through “non-state actors” for over 2 dacades? The Pakistani army has been for the Indians, pretty much what the TTP is for Pakistanis, these days (only much bigger, over a much longer period & plus the non-state actor facade). So, are you Pakistanis allergic to the TTP?
The unfortunate part is, Pakistanis should be even more allergic to the PA, given the fact that it has caused a lot more damage to Pakistan, than anyone else but that does not seem to be the case.
@”As for Sarmila Bose, she is not a nobody, she is the niece of Netaji Subash Chandra Bose and no ordinary Indian. I woulg give her a lot more credibility”
A person does not become credible by being related to someone with credibility. It’s an indiviual thing & nothing in Ms. Bose’s repertoire suggests that she has much of a credibility, at least not on the issue of 1971 & creation of Bangladesh.
Umairpk: “I am wondering how is it possible to create the goodwill?”
That’s very good. I have regards for such words. First thing I would suggest is to understand the overall situation from all angles and points of view. Do not confine it to Pak military’s view points alone. Mutual respect is a starting point. You have not done any of the atrocities that are being discussed here. Therefore you have no need to justify any of it. Someone else did it and there is no need to defend it all costs. Goodwill has to be from the heart. People on the other side of the fence are not green eyed monsters. Their accomplishments did not come without them being normal and hard working people.
I have tried to instill the fact that in 1989, Pakistan did have a choice. It had every favor on its side. The US would have showered Pakistan with money at that time out of sheer gratitude for helping defeat the USSR. But Pakistan’s Aslam Beg, President Ghulam Ishaq Khan and Hamid Gul decided to use their dicks and made a decision to launch a thousand year Jihad in Kashmir. Pakistan had the nukes. Their safety was guaranteed. They knew India will dare not attack Pakistan ever again. But they started illegal nuclear technology sales to many rogue nations. There was a choice in 1989. If Pakistan had chosen wisely and sought economic progress as its goal for the next ten years a lot would have happened -
1. Al Qaeda would not have moved into Afghanistan. Al Qaeda moved in there with Pak military’s blessings.
2. Taliban would not have formed. The Afghan war lords would have bombed each other out and simply settled for peace after blowing all their buttocks off. Non-interference from Pakistan would have helped them settle down on their own brutal terms. But Pak military wanted a strategic depth despite having nuke technology.
3. 9/11 would not have happened. If Pakistan had helped nab these militant leaders, the US would have been the most grateful country.
4. By now Pakistan would have had manufacturing industries, agricultural green revolution, energy industry, semi-conductor fabs, software industry spread all across the land.
5. All Jihad, Madrasas, Mullahs would have died down because of economic progress.
6. Money would have poured. The US would have showered Pakistan with money in those days. It was a booming economy during the Clinton era.
7. Economic clout would have forced India to come to negotiations for business opportunities and Kashmir settlement would have been a necessary action item in the list. Money talks more than weapons. As an important and productive nation, Pakistan could have had strong democracy by now.
8. There would have been no TTP, suicide blasts and sectarian violence.
Imagine what all could have happened if the asses that were in power in 1989 made the right decision.
Is it too late to start from a clean slate? Yes and no. There is always a possibility of someone coming in and inspiring people to do the right thing. But in a conflict zone, it becomes hard to bring about changes. People will first begin to jump out of the sinking ship. If you are changing your perspective, you will find that Indians are the best people you can deal with. We do not hate Pakistan. We just want you to do the right thing. Denials and counter arguments will lead to nowhere.
rehmat, here is another one for you.
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1060319/as p/look/story_5969733.asp
I bet Pakistan would have nuked India, if they had the weapons at that time.
Babag
Thanks for the article by Sarmila Bose again.
That is her analysis of the situation and her opinion which she is entitled to.
I would agree that the situation was complex. I would trust her blindly, like you are doing, only if she was a fly on the wall during 1971. if there are 10more authors like her, I would begin to change my mind. This is not enough for me. Until that happens, spare a moment for the dead ones, rather than saying:
“I bet Pakistan would have nuked India, if they had the weapons at that time.”
***Let us assume Pakistani generals are as mad as you are, then this reflects their potential to commit genocide.
Have you ever wondered how desperate would be a population to break away since it took just one year to create Bangladesh?
The way some of you mob simply reflects your eductional background which to be honest needs definite reforms. And the evidence you provide in support of the accusations,are nothing but the newspapers sketchy reports of individuals and publications. The regular approach therefore should be to pressure the UN for investigations since India now has a seat in the security council. Let the UNO investigate the PA behaviour in Bangla Desh and IA behviour in Punjab against Sikhs, and the ongoing operations against the Kashmiris.
Let the unbiased UNO provide the decision.
In the mean time let us stop pronouncing fatwas or judgements on hearsay stories. My own opinion, Gentlemen, you have a very weak case in a court of law.
Next case please.
Rex Minor
Have you guys ever thought that there were two gentlemen from a village in India who one day decided to use their genius in developing a destractive piece of equipent for destroying the Indian sub-continent? The colonialist were not able to come out with such a deadly force.
Enjoy yourself, this was the local effort.
Rex Minor
Rehma:”Have you ever wondered how desperate would be a population to break away since
it took just one year to create Bangladesh?”
-Rehmat, East Pakistan fell within a span of a year due to the terrorist training conducting by Indian Army of the Mukti Bahni insurgents and finally a full scale war broke out during that time. India actively worked against East Pakistan government and contributed to the creation of Bangladesh.
Today, the reason why Pakistan is complaining about India’s involvement in Baluchistan is because Pakistan has zero tolerance for such a thing again. There are vaguely defined thresholds in place by the SPD-Strategic Plans Division the authority which oversees command and control of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. Under those thresholds, any threat of loosing further territory to Indian aggression would result in nuclear confrontation.
Mortal:”Pakistanis should be even more allergic to the PA, given the fact that it has caused a lot more damage to Pakistan, than anyone else but that does not seem to be the case.”
-No, Pakistan Army is the life blood of Pakistan much like a life line. The only order amidst all the chaos, without which there would have been no nuclear status, the country would have been sold out totally by feuding politicians. It is the only merit based, efficient and professional state institution. Without it Pakistan could implode, and much to your disappointment the Army enjoys overwhelming public support in Pakistan. I am sure it is unusual for an Army to have a country rather than a country who has an Army. But this was bound to happen specially after 1971 debacle, Pakistan never had a chance to develop as a normal democratic nation.
Rehmat:
“Let us assume Pakistani generals are as mad as you are, then this reflects their potential to commit genocide. ”
-I have a question, if a country’s very existence is threatened (existential threat) don’t you think operating under survival mode irrational steps could be taken even inadvertantly? That’s why I say, we have had enough don’t push us any further. Just settle Kashmir and lets move on. Let bygones be bygones. And its not just Kashmir, look at Palestine? the images of ‘operation cast lead’ white phosphrus bombs dropped on UN refugee schools killing children. Does it get any more barbaric? and during that time in Dec 2009 all the US secretary of state could come up with was a statement to Israel to act in restraint. Is this justice? In the muslim world this is what radicalize people and push them towards extrimism.
There should be an emphasis on conflict resolution, for events like the Bangladesh liberation war, there should be tribunals set up in the Hague if need be and after ascertained facts further steps to reconciliation should be taken. Wipe out terrorism and the its causes, if a diseases is treated, steps should be taken to prevent its symptoms of appearing again.
@KPSingh
Can we help you at all to calm down and suppress your urge for making populist statements now and again repeating sometime the USA state department views of the world.
May we remind you that the Reuters Blog do neither have the slaves nor the Fridays of the American masters. No sir, we are from the free world, you dare not consider us the properties of the yanks and showering us with impolite definitions.
You seem to forget the reality that the old owners of this property have left. Americans need help right now; or are you not aware that George W has left the office and now peddling his memoirs?
“They started illegal nuclear technology sales to rogue states”.
May we know who was or is entitled to legally sell the nuclear technology? And Who has the right to call other states as the rogue states? The one who is rude and does not have decent manners or is there any world body of wise and humane leaders who are allocating such titles? I know that there is a collection of some sick and self proclaimed wise politicians in Nobel Prize Committee, who have been lately granting Nobel Prize for Peace, to war mongers as well as war heroes.
The committee is deliberating and probably nnounce their desolution soon.
Rex Minor
KPSingh:” If Pakistan had chosen wisely and sought economic progress as its goal for the next ten years a lot would have happened -
“1. Al Qaeda would not have moved into Afghanistan. Al Qaeda moved in there with Pak military’s blessings.”
-No sir, Al-Qaeda are former CIA allies and freedom fighters blessed by Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagen and Charlie Wilson. Al-Qaeda moved in much earlier and without Pakistan’s blessing.
“2. Taliban would not have formed. The Afghan war lords would have bombed each other out and simply settled for peace after blowing all their buttocks off. Non-interference from Pakistan would have helped them settle down on their own brutal terms. But Pak military wanted a strategic depth despite having nuke technology”
-No again, Taliban were born out of the chaos that enguled Afghanistan after Soviet withdrawal in 1989. US lost interest and abondoned the region, the vaccum was filled by Taliban, they were the ground reality in Kabul and Pakistan had to deal with them.
“3. 9/11 would not have happened. If Pakistan had helped nab these militant leaders, the US would have been the most grateful country”
-None of 9-11 hijacker was Pakistani, it was a big plot and Taliban had nothing to do with it. Taliban cant fly airplanes into skyscrappers, it was some thing bigger and sinister. We dont need a grateful US, we need a partner and ally in the US. No lip service. Just actions.
“4. By now Pakistan would have had manufacturing industries, agricultural green revolution, energy industry, semi-conductor fabs, software industry spread all across the land.”
-Bring it on! I would add Pakistan would have become the land with milk and honey like INDIA where farmers would not commit suicides.
“5. All Jihad, Madrasas, Mullahs would have died down because of economic progress.”
-Being a non-Muslim you are not capable to comprehend the meaning of the word ‘Jihad’ which means to struggle (could be against poverty, hunger, disease etc)Madrasas are a great institutions spare a few radical ones, rest of them are doing a good job. Don’t issue statements on things you are ignorant of.
“6. Money would have poured. The US would have showered Pakistan with money in those days. It was a booming economy during the Clinton era.”
-You and your silly theories. Thumbs up.
“7. Economic clout would have forced India to come to negotiations for business opportunities and Kashmir settlement would have been a necessary action item in the list. Money talks more than weapons. As an important and productive nation, Pakistan could have had strong democracy by now.”
-We can never sell Kashmir and make deals when thousands of our muslim bretheren are suffering in Kashmir. More than strong democracy, a true democracy is valueable.
“8. There would have been no TTP, suicide blasts and sectarian violence.”
-TTP was the aftermath of US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, TTP was formed in 2004-5, its backbone is broken by now. Sectarian tensions exist since decades, Shias and Sunnis get along one way or the other. Suicide blasts is a complex phenomenon, result of the geo-strategic dynamics of Afghan conflict.
“But they started illegal nuclear technology sales to many rogue nations.”
-Before that in the 80s US tolerated Pakistan’s nuclear program. Which one is the bigger mistake? Pakistan’s proliferation, its quest to acquire nuclear technology after Indian 1974 tests? or US tolerance of Pakistan’s development of nuclear technology? Set the record straight, the acquisition of nuclear tech was also illegal. Infact nuclearization of South Asia by India back in 1974 was the biggest crime of all, resulting in Pakistan’s quest to purchase nuclear material from the blackmarket and afterwards proliferation by few individuals in unofficial capacity.
See drop your hatred, I can rebuttal you for evey accusation. It helps no one.
” If you are changing your perspective, you will find that Indians are the best people you can deal with. We do not hate Pakistan. We just want you to do the right thing. Denials and counter arguments will lead to nowhere.”
-Being a free citizen of a soverign nation, you have no right and I am under no obligation “to do the right thing” which obviously you think is the right thing to do. We will do what WE think is right for us to do and during the course if Indians become the worst people to deal with, than so be it.
“Denials and counter arguments will lead to nowhere.”
-AGREED. Lets try to move on and wish peace between India and Pakistan which are two neighbours. Look we can call each other enemies, but we are neighbours as well. No one can change that reality. Lets hope one day we become FRIENDLY neighbours.
Umair
“Today, the reason why Pakistan is complaining about India’s involvement in Baluchistan is because Pakistan has zero tolerance for such a thing again. There are vaguely defined thresholds in place by the SPD-Strategic Plans Division the authority which oversees command and control of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. Under those thresholds, any threat of loosing further territory to Indian aggression would result in nuclear confrontation.”
*** tell me what is the chance that India can achieve this. Let us not milk issues which have almost no probability of happening. That is not forward looking. I am reminding you again that India cannot do it since Pakistan has nukes. It is simple as that. Nor can Pakistan wage overt wars like it used to do. Covert operations have not helped Pakistan so far. It is time to sit around a table and talk.
Do you think India and Pakistan should sign some treaty to not interfere in each other’s internal issues and not use any sort of overt/covert operations as tool to solve any issues. You should support this if you believe in let bygones be bygones. Although Simla agreement already says this but another treaty one can be signed. During Simla agreement Pakistan was the defeated party, now a new one can be signed where no one is the victor. Perhaps a better chance of working.
I understand your patriotism about PA but you should not hesitate to condemn their acts which are condemnable. With interior and foreign policy in their control, it makes sense you do that.
Do you think PA is so sacred for you that you cannot Patriotism comes in way at wrong time. If In that case Indians can start defending IA actions. Where does it lead? But that means if you
Point I am getting at is that India facilitated what was bound to happen. It was simmering for long time and political retards precipitated what might not have happened. All it needed was to allow Awami league into power which they deserved. Rest all is history.
“I have a question, if a country’s very existence is threatened (existential threat) don’t you think operating under survival mode irrational steps could be taken even inadvertantly? That’s why I say, we have had enough don’t push us any further.”
***As I said India would not have been in East Pakistan if Pakistan had nukes. What else is meant by “existential threat” My belief is that India-Pak cannot afford to fight even conventional war at this point with crackers in their hands.
BTW, what is meant by “don’t push us any further.” Last time it was Pakistan via so-called non-state actors who pushed India to the edge. India-Pak peace cannot happen with these lunatics around. If PA can take on everyone else in Pakistan—all shades of militants–pushtoon TTP and assortment of insurgents/terrorists in Waziristan, take on insurgents in Baluchistan, what ties its hands towards LeT? Is it your perception that LeT is not harmful to you–then you are mistaken. It is a matter of time. So far they have not helped solve Kashmir and now this LeT chief is addressing lawyers in Pakistan. These guys (and other related organizations) are the ones who have broken India-Pak peace and brought them to the edge of the war.
India and Pakistan need to have trade relations so strong that they stop thinking of hurting each other.
Take care
Rehmat:
“Do you think India and Pakistan should sign some treaty to not interfere in each other’s internal issues and not use any sort of overt/covert operations as tool to solve any issues.”
-Yes i do, infact on this very forum after the Mumbai attacks, I had expressed my opinion that India and Pakistan should open up cooperation, intelligence sharing, border control and law enforcement. Also sign an extradition treaty for exchange of wanted criminals if need arises.
BTW, since all guys like Ahmed Rashid a lot, here is an interesting article by him on Financial Times:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/76decb60-f35e- 11df-b34f-00144feab49a.html#axzz15luW0WA 1
“The US failure to rein in the ISI, says Mr Karzai, leaves him no choice but to deepen his relationship with Pakistan if he wants peace with the Taliban.”
In a suggestion that alarms and infuriates western officials, he says there is a political alternative to Nato – to depend more on regional countries, especially Iran and Pakistan.”
Umair
Sorry about the last post. I was in rush and there were some incomplete sentences.
“Yes i do, infact on this very forum after the Mumbai attacks, I had expressed my opinion that India and Pakistan should open up cooperation, intelligence sharing, border control and law enforcement. Also sign an extradition treaty for exchange of wanted criminals if need arises.”
*** That is encouraging!
Mumbai attack was unique the way it was conducted and also because it left a trail of irrefutable evidence that pointed finger at Pakistan in no uncertain manner. Two years have passed and if we are true to ourselves the progress in Pakistan on that case is pathetic. Putting few criminals behind bar is not that big deal for India since it would not help the bigger issue. What is important is Pakistan’s body language, which has not been favorable given from the very beginning and has been continued that way. LeT man Hafeez Saeed, who should be behind the bars, is addressing the lawyers. If I slip in your Pakistani shoes it may not seem like a big deal, but you get in Indian shoes and think about it. I would like to know your views on that. If the reverse had happened and 180 odd people died in Karachi at the hands of India-based terrorists, I would like to see noose around this person’s neck.
Let us say a treaty has been signed the way you mentioned, would you still tolerate this guy and other such established anti-India terrorism supporters, partying with politicians and lecturing lawyers?
@Rex
“And the evidence you provide in support of the accusations,are nothing but the newspapers sketchy reports of individuals and publications.”
***Probably all these guys are using the tool you love, the “mental intuition”.
Do you conveniently shift between intuition and evidence depending upon the situation?
I would much rather admire silence than name calling, such as mob, colonial blahs!
Rex
“Let the UNO investigate the PA behaviour in Bangla Desh and IA behviour in Punjab against Sikhs, and the ongoing operations against the Kashmiris.
Let the unbiased UNO provide the decision.
In the mean time let us stop pronouncing fatwas or judgements on hearsay stories. My own opinion, Gentlemen, you have a very weak case in a court of law.”
***Not a bad idea! No more fatwas.
Enough of this talk about PA/bangladesh, IA/Sikhs, IA/kashmir. let UN do the research and analysis.
Add to the list “useless talk on someone’s educational background.” which comes from you mostly.
Let us deal with the points or keep quiet and not dish out what we cannot handle.
Peace!
Rehmat:
“Two years have passed and if we are true to ourselves the progress in Pakistan on that case is pathetic. Putting few criminals behind bar is not that big deal for India since it would not help the bigger issue. What is important is Pakistan’s body language, which has not been favorable given from the very beginning and has been continued that way. LeT man Hafeez Saeed, who should be behind the bars, is addressing the lawyers. If I slip in your Pakistani shoes it may not seem like a big deal, but you get in Indian shoes and think about it. I would like to know your views on that.”
-Rehmat, try to understand that LeT thrives on the Kashmir dispute and exploits the conflict. Pakistan knows that putting a few individuals behind bars would not solve the problem, besides a crackdown on them would push them further underground and as its splinter groups would emerge and result in violence against the state. Pakistan is following a step by step approach right now TTP and LeJ etc. are the priority to deal with. But you trust me, putting Hafiz Saeed behind bars doesn’t solve the problem. ISI has its eyes and ears in Southern Punjab. That is the support base of LeT and LeJ (Punjabi Taliban hardline Sunni extremists), Army is getting leads, they cordon the areas in Southern Punjab and arrest those people. LeT is a banned organization, they change their name and emerge as Jamat Ud Dawah and resurface to evade the law enforcement. JUD was active in flood hit areas, they try to undermine the govt. exploit the issues like poverty and corruption inability of govt. and use vulnerable youth. Things would take time but we are on course and trust me Pakistan Army is the best hope to ensure we get the desired results. As Kashmir dispute is resolved, or atleast concrete steps get started towards that resolution I am sure the LeT will see a final crackdown.
On the contrary, when IC-814 was hijacked in Kandahar with hostages, Indian FM had to fly in with prisoners that India had to release in return of the hostages freedom. Sometimes you have to negotiate, with the criminals and sometimes you give a go ahead to final assault. We need to prepare the ground, eliminate their reason to exist. Just visualize these LeT guys are holding hostage the vulnerable populace, with history of Jihad in Kashmir. We need the right timing to go for final push.
@Rehmat
I do not expect a different response from you either, so do not sweat. Have fun!
Rex Minor
@”Today, the reason why Pakistan is complaining about India’s involvement in Baluchistan is because Pakistan has zero tolerance for such a thing again” Posted by Umairpk
The problem here, is that your complaints are based on conspiracy theories rather than facts. It’s been years since you guys have been yelling about “India’s involvement in Baluchistan” & “the gazellion Indian embassies in Afghanistan” but to this date, your Govt has not provided an iota of evidence to India or the International community, have they?
@”No, Pakistan Army is the life blood of Pakistan much like a life line. The only order amidst all the chaos, without which there would have been no nuclear status”
It’s not the life blood of Pakistan but rather the entity which has sucked the blood out of Pakistan’s life. It is the entity responisble for unnecessary wars with India, radicalization of Pakistan, dismsmberment of your country & the creation of the terror infrastructure, which is eating Pakistan alive today. You being a part of a military family, I don’t expect you to agree with me.
@”But you trust me, putting Hafiz Saeed behind bars doesn’t solve the problem.”
Of course it does! It would be a huge symbolic gesture towards India that Pakistan is finally ready to eliminate India centric terrorism from it’s soil. It will also create a lot of goodwill for Pakistan in the global community. India will also be compelled to reciprocate by holding meaninful discussions on Kashmir & work towards solving it. These are just excuses that the PA is making, in order to keep groups like LeT alive & in the process also keep alive the hatred for India.
Mortal
So India was waiting for Mumbai disaster to happen, so that Pakistan could arrest Hafiz Saeed and in return a meaningful compelling peace negotiation effort could begin towards the resolution of Kashmir dispute? This is insane.
Mumbai attack was the result of a group attacking the city and everyone knows the group has been part of Kashmir conflict. Lets settle Kashmir dispute so that we eliminate these groups and there is no innocent loss of life anywhere.
” You being a part of a military family, I don’t expect you to agree with me.
“
continued..
Again your perception is incorrect, whatever my family background just remember retired Soldiers and officers had made their organization which put a lot of pressure on Musharraf to resign and give way to a democratic elected govt. since the country was increasingly on the wrong direction. I recently came to know about Indo-Pak Soldiers Initiative for Peace (IPSI), a NGO formed by retired soldiers of Indian and Pakistani armies. I am sure they are doing some good work, current Army leadership is very supportive of civilian govt. on one occasion a dangerous political deadlock threatnening stability (on chief just of supreme court issue) was resolved when Army chief had to intervene and ask the govt. and opposition to settle the matter. When you are unaware of the role of Pak Army, please refrain from generic statements. I can only talk facts, its upto you if you are more interested in stories. Where there is fault I admit, you also admit that Army is doing the job to eliminate terrorists and arrest of many Al-Qaida members by ISI.
Let’s get real, guys. India will not settle the Kashmir dispute now, not when it holds all the cards. This is Pakistan’s last gasp, and India will not blink. India’s economy is growing at close to 10% a year. The world sees this and wants a piece of the action. No one, not even the UN dares to talk about Kashmir now. It is becoming an untouchable topic like Tibet, because India is becoming as important to the world as China.
Pakistan, on the other hand, is in such bad economic shape that after a while, even China will begin to wash its hands off. China did $60 billion worth of business with India last year and the Chinese are pragmatists. After a point, the weather will change so much that even the all-weather friend will have to take Pakistan aside for a gentle breakup talk. That’s going to crush the spirit of Pakistanis even more than the snubs coming out of the Obama visit.
I don’t think the few of us puny individuals on this forum are going to do anything to change these realities. We could have used this forum to build goodwill. Unfortunately, that has not happened. So let’s stand back and watch reality do the work.
There will be peace in South Asia, but it will happen on humiliating terms for Pakistan. Those of us on the Indian side who were hoping for a more dignified and equal peace will have been unsuccessful in our attempts to reach out to the other side. There’s too much pride and hatred there to allow for a face-saving solution.
Regards,
Ganesh Prasad
@”So India was waiting for Mumbai disaster to happen, so that Pakistan could arrest Hafiz Saeed and in return a meaningful compelling peace negotiation effort could begin towards the resolution of Kashmir dispute?”
Mumbai 2008 was just tipping point for Indians after being the terrorized by your establishment for 2 dacades, so don’t make Mumbai as the starting point because it was the end point. Mumbai 2008 made Indians realize that no matter how many gestures of goodwill, India shows towards Pakistan, your military establishment will not give up it’s sponsorship of terrorism in India. Let me put it this way, people like Haafiz Saeed, Dawood Ibrahim, Azhar Masood etc., are veiwed by Indians as the symbols of Pakistan’s hate & enimity with India. So, as long as your establishment continues to sheild these guys & their groups, the enimity will be alive but the moment they are punished & treated like the terrorists that they are, in Pakistan, is when Indians will feel that pakistan is sincere about mending fences.
@”Mumbai attack was the result of a group attacking the city and everyone knows the group has been part of Kashmir conflict”
That is utter BS. Mumbai attack (& the one’s before) had nothing to do with Kashmir. Were Kasab & his 9 comrades who sprayed bullets over innocent civilians, Kashmiri? Was the group that they belong to, Kashmiri? Were the leaders of that group, Kashmiri?
Kashmir is just a smoke screen set up by your army to deflect it’s real agenda, which always was, to break India by hook or crook & avenge 1971.
Again, I go back to 1989, when Punjabi groups like LeT & JeM were created, funded & trained by your army, to infiltrate kashmir & wage a proxy war against India. Kashmir was peaceful & prosperous until 1989. There was no Indian army & no atrocities on kashmiris. So, where was the need to liberate the kashmiris, who were living peacefully in India?
@”When you are unaware of the role of Pak Army, please refrain from generic statements. I can only talk facts, its upto you if you are more interested in stories.”
If you do an objective analysis of the history of Pakistan, it will be very clear to you that a lot of your country’s current problems can be attributed to the misdeeds & blunders of your army. But I’m sorry to say my friend, when it comes to the PA, your objectivity goes out the window. So, this argument it pointless.
@Umair
“Pakistan is following a step by step approach right now TTP and LeJ etc. are the priority to deal with. But you trust me, putting Hafiz Saeed behind bars doesn’t solve the problem.”
“Just visualize these LeT guys are holding hostage the vulnerable populace, with history of Jihad in Kashmir. We need the right timing to go for final push.”
***Let us wait and see. Only time will tell what happens.
“Mumbai attack was the result of a group attacking the city and everyone knows the group has been part of Kashmir conflict. Lets settle Kashmir dispute so that we eliminate these groups and there is no innocent loss of life anywhere”
***I have totally different stand on the issue. LeT guys are not like TTP or Afghan Taliban which can be called insurgents. LeT/JeM and their aliases based in Pakistan have no business to be in there since Indian Army is not entering their zones. In my book they are not insurgents or freedom fighters but plain cold blooded killers. A Kashmiri can be called a freedom fighter or a Jihadi, not these fellows. I know the next line of logic is that LeT is fighting Jihad for atrocities on fellow Muslims in Kashmir suffering at the hands of IA. THis is not Jihad but a choice made by ISI/PA.
If Pakistan is helpless in controlling these groups, then we got real problem at hand. As we discussed earlier that there needs to be an atmosphere of peace–no poking inside each other;s countries but solve issues by talking.
Kashmir is a solvable issues only if all 3 parties really wish. 4 wars and covert operations have all failed to solve anything and have brought India and Pakistan closer to serious war. It is time to move on with a civilized approach with short-term and long-term goals in my mind.
@Rex
“I do not expect a different response from you either, so do not sweat. Have fun!”
***Nice to see you are speaking my language
Umairpk: “Mumbai attack was the result of a group attacking the city and everyone knows the group has been part of Kashmir conflict. Lets settle Kashmir dispute so that we eliminate these groups and there is no innocent loss of life anywhere.”
LeT has an agenda much larger than Kashmir. The following link provides some insight into its agenda:
http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/ india/states/jandk/terrorist_outfits/las hkar_e_toiba.htm
See below the title “Objectives/Ideology”
This means, once Kashmir is “settled” LeT and other such groups are not going to stop. They need money to run their missions. Just collecting money from charities is not sufficient to run the logistics of war against a state, whether it is a proxy war or not. Wars are costly and countries go bankrupt waging wars. And LeT is able to sustain wars. Where is the money coming from? I am sure funding comes from Saudi Arabia charity missions, and American tax payers’ money filtered through the Pakistani military system. Commando style training is very expensive. No matter how much you people might deny it, everything is being watched and it is an open secret.
Tomorrow Pakistan’s leaders might simply wash them off as “non state actors” if they continue with their Jihad. The desperation to cover up the Mumbai attack investigation in a coherent and collective way by the Pakistani military and civilian establishments showed who is really behind everything.
To bring any peace in the region, the first thing to try is to stay out of each other’s affair. Our countries might be neighbors, but the two have distanced themselves far and wide. For about five years both countries should agree to simply not even look in each other’s direction. Once a stage of quietness is achieved, then diplomatic talks can be started. The main agenda should be to discuss only things going forward and nothing from the past must be brought to the table. Trade interactions can be started slowly. Over a period of about two decades, myths and misperceptions should be cleared between the people of the two nations. Only then efforts to bring peace will succeed. Kashmir is not a cure for all ills. We have already seen it in the article written by one Major in Pakistan.
“
“Have you ever wondered how desperate would be a population to break away since it took just one year to create Bangladesh?”
One year? Not true.It started in early 60′s.
Agartala case was filed in early 1968 By the Ayub Govt, and implicated Sheikh Mujib and 35 others in conspiring with India against the succession of East Pakistan. The existence of blue print (succession) from Agartala was admitted recently by Sheikh Mujib’s daughter.
“***Let us assume Pakistani generals are as mad as you are, then this reflects their potential to commit genocide.”
If somebody attacks my home and family, I would retaliate with most lethal weapon I have. India was equally involved in separating east Pakistan.
I would call the nuclear arms as assault weapons and not the defensive or deterrent weapons. They are like a double edged sword which are dangerous for the aggressor and equaly dangerous for the country which possesis it.
The USA could not defend or deter the aggressors which struck them on Sept. 11. And what about India which also has bags of little sweet things. Were they able to avoid or defend against the invaders who supposedly came came from the water side? A thought for the people who are fond of the monsters.
Rex Minor
Rex Minor
babag: “Agartala case was filed in early 1968 By the Ayub Govt, and implicated Sheikh Mujib and 35 others in conspiring with India against the succession of East Pakistan. The existence of blue print (succession) from Agartala was admitted recently by Sheikh Mujib’s daughter.”
Provide a credible non-Pakistani reference link for this above claim. The whole Bangladesh issue started with language. For Bengalis, more than their religion, their language is as dear as their lives. Jinnah wanted Urdu to be the official language of Pakistan and the Bengalis refused to accept it. That was the start of all problems that later manifested as secession. In India too language is a big issue and the politicians have learned not to mess with it.
@Rex
“And what about India which also has bags of little sweet things. Were they able to avoid or defend against the invaders who supposedly came came from the water side? A thought for the people who are fond of the monsters.”
***I totally agree terrorists (invaders to you!) cannot be controlled by nukes. That goes without saying. That is why these covert operations have become more fashionable after nukes prevented conventional wars.
Ordinary citizens do not dictate nuke policy of their respective countries. What they can do is stop giving threats to anyone about nukes—it is childish and irresponsible. America might have bombed Japan, but Americans do not give these threats, nor do Indians nor Europeans who have them. This phenomenon is peculiar to Pakistan citizens. The name given is Islamic bomb. What an irony! Islam, the religion of peace, has been associated with bomb!
@babag
“Agartala case was filed in early 1968 By the Ayub Govt, and implicated Sheikh Mujib and 35 others in conspiring with India against the succession of East Pakistan. The existence of blue print (succession) from Agartala was admitted recently by Sheikh Mujib’s daughter.”
***I really do no know about this. May be you can tell us more.
“If somebody attacks my home and family, I would retaliate with most lethal weapon I have. India was equally involved in separating east Pakistan.”
***You would have noticed my exchange of posts with Umair why Pakistan should sit tight and relax since they got nukes and EVEN IF (EVEN IF!) India has any intention of repeating B’desh, it is not possible. Even if you take nuke out of equation, countries like India and Pakistan cannot afford conventional wars. That would put them behind by many years. I am not sure how much you realize this.
To answer your question, no one would attack your house if you have some weapon that can make the attacker extinct. You have it and now focus on other stuff.
@babag
“Agartala case was filed in early 1968 By the Ayub Govt, and implicated Sheikh Mujib and 35 others in conspiring with India against the succession of East Pakistan. The existence of blue print (succession) from Agartala was admitted recently by Sheikh Mujib’s daughter.”
***I really do no know about this. May be you can tell us more.
“If somebody attacks my home and family, I would retaliate with most lethal weapon I have. India was equally involved in separating east Pakistan.”
***You would have noticed my exchange of posts with Umair why Pakistan should sit tight and relax since they got nukes and EVEN IF (EVEN IF!) India has any intention of repeating B’desh, it is not possible. Even if you take nuke out of equation, countries like India and Pakistan cannot afford conventional wars. That would put them behind by many years. I am not sure how much you realize this.
To answer your question, no one would attack your house if you have some weapon that can make the attacker extinct. You have it and now focus on other stuff.
Sometimes I feel that a certain segment of Pakistan is just itching to indulge in a nuclear cronfrontation with India. They desperately look for all kinds inane excuses for it, ranging from Indian interference in Baluchistan (via innumerable consulates in Afghanistan) to India stealing pakistan’s water (this issue seems be muted since the floods), etc etc. I just hope that the men in-charge, don’t embody such moronic or suicidal tendencies.
@Mortal
No segment is itchingto indulge in a nuclear confrontation. Both countries are scared to death because of their nuclear might. nuclear weapons cannot protect any one, quite the contrary.
To normalise the situation in the subcontinent force must be forced out of the equation. The use or rather misuse of force(might is right) is influencing the psyche of the people. The ball is in the Indian court, they cannot hang on to Kashmir with military force, since the citizens are up against the military. India should start a dialogue with the Kashmiris on both sides of the border and let its nukes go to sleep! this would encourage further dialogues and commerce.
Rex Minor
@Rehmat
It is not your fault. You are prejudiced and so are most Indians against Pakistan. I have said earlier, the people of India and Pakistan do not desire peace.
Indian leaders are proud of their working democracy. You are stating that ordinary citizens do not dictate the Nuke policy. Who does in India, the congress, the Prime minister or the military. Have we not heard threats from the Indian military Brass?
Ofcourse, it is childish and irresponsible and possibly it is part of the culture. But do not keep on defending the USA, which is sending threats possibly on a weekly basis. Ask the Iranians, the Syrians and the koreans. These threats are nothing but the expression of fear from what the other side is capable of doing. The world is getting serious now and is now involved in cyber war, Iran was the first to come under attack, the USA is the second during this week.
What are these incidents telling us, let us discuss it at a later date.
Rex Minor
Umairpk:
“-AGREED. Lets try to move on and wish peace between India and Pakistan which are two neighbours. Look we can call each other enemies, but we are neighbours as well. No one can change that reality. Lets hope one day we become FRIENDLY neighbours.”
—>NO..we are not enemies. The Pak Army is the enemy of peace between avg Indians and Pakistani’s. That is by far the single largest impediment to peace, irrefutably.
Friendship is within reach, always was and will be. It up to your Fauji’s, do they want to drag Pakistani’s through more hell, or do they want financial progress in Pakistan?
I think ALL Pakistani’s should have jobs dignity and security. Fauji’s don’t want Pakistani’s to lift up, educate and progress.
All Fauji’s want is another war to resurrect their sense of bravado, it is still damaged from 1971 and past wars and they want to get back their war pride somehow, in the mean time, they will make Pakistani’s suffer, and stoke and foment Kashmir, as a consolation prize, while they cannot kill Indians in a direct war.
Be your own man, young Umair. It is time to demand change from your Gov’t and Army Emperors, your people are suffering needlessly.
What needs to be clarified is this – At the people level, Indians and Pakistanis have no problems interacting and building goodwill. Most of us are against Pakistan’s military at this time. The reason is as follows.
Pakistan’s army has been spoiled by the US due to cold war geo-politics. There is no way any rehabilitation can be set up. Pakistan’s army has become like an alcoholic, having gotten used to excessive intoxication. The original goal of founding Pakistan for Muslims has been forgotten. Now all that is there is an army that is holding all parts of the fragile country together by force. Like Musharraf says, “Do not mess with us” is the mantra.
Proxy war against the Soviets has completely ruined the mindsets of the army generals. Which military general does not like strategies, conflicts and victories? They get bored sitting in the barracks just marching around. In a small country like Pakistan, especially with the martial nature of most people, a military with nothing to do is a very uncomfortable entity. They want to be in the middle of big conflicts, want to be the facilitators of big treaties, want to be on the forefront and rub shoulders with big empires. In the absence of all this, cold turkey sets in. With all the modern weapons, nukes and expertise, the Pak military simply cannot sit doing nothing.
The US has not allowed democratic institutions to take root in Pakistan for its own cold war objectives. And this has made the military the only institution in the country that can function in an organized manner with a structure. In all, Pakistan and its military have become synonymous in today’s context. And everyone cannot become a uniformed solider. So we have Jihadist militant groups who train their cadres to the same level as professional soldiers. There is no employment opportunities for most youth. Once these kinds of things gain momentum, it is very difficult to stop them. The only way out is to channel them outward at all times. This means, conflicts are needed on a continuous basis to keep the mind occupied and the elements kept busy.
Keeping the militants at bay due to US pressure has caused severe blow back in Pakistan. Now Pakistan can remain at peace only if it can channel its elements outward in all directions. There is no room for infrastructure building or development. Militant groups are criminal organizations that have no accountability for their actions. Pakistan’s military will use them and at the same time declare that they have no control over them. This is a dangerous situation. At some point, the balance will tilt and militant groups will become utterly uncontrollable. TTP is just the starting point. By keeping the region in conflict, people can be told that they are in danger of existential threat. This way no one will have to give any excuse for not building the nation. Outsiders who have been poked at relentlessly will be blamed for keeping the conflict alive.
In summary, peace is a dreadful thing for Pakistan today. This is because the militant groups cannot be contained by peace. All this talk of going back to peaceful times if Kashmir is settled etc are only talk. Pakistan’s army has put itself in a dangerous slide. It will need sustained conflicts in the future for its own survival against the militant elements it had generated. Now they are getting a mind on their own.
This is something patriotic Pakistanis are unable to understand. They get emotional and start supporting the very institution that is leading their country towards the path of self destruction. There are two countries one should not try to become enemies of – The US and Afghanistan. Soviet Union made that mistake and disappeared completely. Now Afghanistan will become Pakistan’s enemy state as well after NATO leaves in 2014. There is no trust on Pakistan. And a “defeated” US will not allow things to smooth out.
It is unfortunate. No one forethought of the consequences. No one can correct the PA. It is a point of no return. Hope a miracle saves the region.
KP Singh said:
> It is unfortunate. No one forethought of the consequences. No one can correct the PA. It is a point of no return. Hope a miracle saves the region.
The miracle is mundane economics of the kind that brought down the Soviet Union. They simply cannot sustain a military budget to match India’s when their economy is stagnant. They will either start a nuclear war soon (as you fear), or they will have to come to the negotiating table on their knees.
For everyone’s sake, I hope they come to an agreement very soon, while they still have the dignity of strength. In five years, India will be able to dictate terms and that won’t do much for an ego already bruised by 1971.
Regards,
Ganesh Prasad
@KPSingh
Your comments, a resolulation of the Kashmir issue could remove the bone of contention between India and Pakistan. There is no reason why the two neighbours could not then have an amiable relations with each other.
Let us not ignore that Pakistan Army is not foreign but the integral part of the country. The majority of the families in most part of Pakistan have one or more members serving in the Armed Forces. The prolonged military rule has polarised and radicalised the society and any hope of reverting to the normality would take xxxx years. During this period the country equires peace and stability without any foreign intervention. The international communities could provide support for civic institutions. Indian self interest would be served if it is friendly towards Pakistan which would be obliged to reciprocate.
The NO Return declaration or the like are not helpful since it provides the lifeline for the military rule and the suppression of the democratic rule of law.
Rex Minor
@Rex
“Ofcourse, it is childish and irresponsible and possibly it is part of the culture.”
***That was the answer and rest was unnecessary.
My previous post was about ‘INDIVIDUAL’ responsibility as a good citizen.
“But do not keep on defending the USA, which is sending threats possibly on a weekly basis.”
***Unnecessary and not worth a comment from me.
Pakistan: “There is no reason why the two neighbours could not then have an amiable relations with each other.”
It has been tried. At least from the Indian side many times hopes have been raised only to be disappointed by the derailment of such efforts. Simultaneously there are different establishments inside Pakistan, both official and unofficial, speak loud of their own foreign policy. Every time there has been a sincere attempt from the Indian side, some elements from the Pakistani side will derail it. I am not going to list them here. Friendship needs trust as the starting point. And Indians have lost complete trust of Pakistan today. At least if Pakistan, having declared itself as a nation in the forefront of war against terror, had helped nail the culprits responsible for Mumbai attacks and helped bring them to justice, a lot of trust could have been built. The entire Pakistani established employed various means to thwart it – denials, procrastination, cover up, delays, namesake arrests and so on. While treating India partially, Pakistan did everything to capture and hand off key terrorist elements that the US wanted and tried to project itself as sincere partner in war against terror. This duplicitous approach has made Pakistan unreliable and untrustworthy from the Indian stand point. Still India has opened up diplomatic channels, due to much pressure from the US. Indian public in general are not with the government on this.
The burden is on Pakistan now, if it really wants peace in the region with India. We will only reciprocate goodwill gestures if Pakistan initiates it. We have tried it and it has not worked. Pakistan seems to place pre-conditions as a means to avoid building any friendship with India. The way Pakistan treated India’s goodwill gesture during the floods is a classic example. There are lot of arrogant people there with perpetual erection. So long as they think with their third leg, they are not going to seek any peace in the region.
“Let us not ignore that Pakistan Army is not foreign but the integral part of the country. The majority of the families in most part of Pakistan have one or more members serving in the Armed Forces. The prolonged military rule has polarised and radicalised the society and any hope of reverting to the normality would take xxxx years.”
It is not going to happen now or in the future. There are too many skeletons buried in the closet and Pak military will never allow its image of a clean and respectable enterprise be tarnished by it. They have managed to hide all the truth about what they did in East Pakistan and have quietly shifted the blame to others. Once institutions make deal with criminal organizations, the latter will creep in and take over with time. Pak military in its current status cannot go back. It is a pipe dream to expect them to change. They are the ones who do not want any friendship with the neighbors. They want to be the ones dictating terms to others – telling India to get out of Afghanistan, Kashmir, Balochistan etc. Mr. Kayani has openly stated the military doctrine in Pakistan – India is the enemy. So the military will make sure that civilian puppets tow their line.
“During this period the country equires peace and stability without any foreign intervention.”
Does that include China? Saudi Arabia? I guess you have assumed that foreign intervention means it comes from the US and India. The US did not want to come back here after the Soviets were defeated. They “abandoned” the region as per Pakistani whiners. And India has no interest in Pakistan other than the danger it poses to its territorial integrity. There is enough record to substantiate that belief.
“The international communities could provide support for civic institutions.”
Unfortunately Pak military stands on the way and wants to siphon off all funding for its strategic uses against this imagined enemy India. Mr. Musharraf has openly mentioned that Pak military allocated a large chunk of money from abroad towards its activities against India. A lot of money has been poured over the past 63 years into Pakistan and most of it is in Swiss bank accounts of big level politicians, land lords, or militant groups. Pakistan first has to earn the trust of foreign donors. People are still debating in other forums about why Haiti got such a massive aid while Pakistan did not get that much during the floods. It is a clear indication of loss of trust. Unless Pakistan shows sincerity and earnestness in clearing the image it has created, things will not improve.
”
Indian self interest would be served if it is friendly towards Pakistan which would be obliged to reciprocate.”
India has tried all that. See my comments above. And we have no interest in Pakistan or its affairs. We have our own agenda and goal to move forward. Pakistan is only looked at as a hindrance and an irritant towards accomplishing that goal. India does not need Pakistan for its survival or progress. The Indian perspective therefore is that Pakistan is trying to drag its progress as there is nothing else in its agenda. We were warming up. People to people interaction had increased. Sports and arts interactions had become healthy. Suddenly the elements inside Pakistan saw this as a dangerous trend and executed the Mumbai attacks to shut it all out. The aftermath of those attacks did not go well either. Seeing Pakistan dodge and duck the issue instead of co-operating made things worse.
In our perspective, Pakistan’s military has no agenda other than to cause more trouble and sustain its power grip on it people.
May be you should try telling a few good things to your fellow Pakistanis, instead of asking Indians to take all the initiatives. One handed claps do not work.
@Ganesh Prasad
Whenever there is a hope, the cloud of darkness gathers immediately and try to over shadow a process. I am an observer and try to be neutral, but you represent no none in the world of hopes and dreams.
It was not the mundane economics or the influence of the former Pope or any fear from the USA weapons,their defeat occured at the hands of very simple people called afghans. You do not know the psyche of the people of the poor central asian republics. After the defeat at the hands of afghans, the soviet Union could not maintain any hold on the central Asian Republics who have no respect for the looser. Mr Gorbachov had no alternative but to start the breakdown of the USSR. He is now living happily in Germany.
It is the divine power which is controlling the balance in the world; we have seen the Romans, the Bezentinians, the Ottomans, the Germans and the Japanese( who did not go on knees even after the 2 atomic drops),they all left us quietly and without making a big fuss.You are coming from the stregnth of capitalism, the economic boom of the system,the world of consume with the plastic money, living beyond one’s means, and is of the belief that it was economics which brought about the break down of the soviet Union (and its allies in Easter Europe). There are others like you who believe that had the soviet Union and its allies come over to the free market system and not depend on the communist controlled business system, they could have survived.
You are not even aware of the circumstances which the world is currently facing, the americans who are borrowing 40 cents of the dollar they consume, the indians who have hitherto failed to feed its citizens with simple two meals a day and are continuously taking the jobs of the americans and is now the biggest outsouce supplier of the USA, and Europe which are also consuming more than they can afford and struggling with their economies and the social system.
And not very far from the Indian borders there are around sixty million pashtoons who feed themselves with a simple meal and are happy to live in poverty satisfied with the hope that their life after death would be better than currently. On top of that they are still able to resist the most powerful of the powerful enemy(USA and NATO military and their leaders and the THINK TANK brains) and have defeated the lot in every combat. A surrender what they require from the invaders and not negotiations.
The world has not seen the nuclear war between the two Nuke countries. It is scary, there is not going to be a tit for tat story as shown in the hollywood films. we have already discussed this theory.
What we note is that countries who have Nukes are billigerant and both India and Pakistan belong to this group of billigerants. i wonder if India has more stregnth than Pakistan or even kashmiris to obtain a decision in their favour. I certainly would not like to in indian’s shoes, and Pakistan has nothing more to loose what they have already lost.
Rex Mnor
PS I m disappointed with your statement since this in my view is the cause of rifts between the two contries, the problem of a culture perhaps, the left over from the colonial days. first call people and Govts. terrorists and then seek a dialogue. The fact that the Iranian Govt. is not prepared to have a diplomatic relationship with the USA tells us something. Perhaps India and Pakistan should break off diplomatic relationship for a period 5-10years. This could at least put a stop to the current love hate statements from both sides?
Rex Minor
Pakistan: “And not very far from the Indian borders there are around sixty million pashtoons who feed themselves with a simple meal and are happy to live in poverty satisfied with the hope that their life after death would be better than currently. On top of that they are still able to resist the most powerful of the powerful enemy(USA and NATO military and their leaders and the THINK TANK brains) and have defeated the lot in every combat. A surrender what they require from the invaders and not negotiations.”
This Pashtun butt worship is annoying. In the case of others it is poverty. In the case of Pashtun it turns into two simple meals. All Pashtuns are not militants. Many are farmers and peasants. Not all Pashtuns are Taliban either. You are cleverly mixing them all up and projecting them as some heavy horned, three eyed gargantuans.
I think you are suffering from Stockholm syndrome. Probably the Pashtuns did something to your rear end.
Americans did not come to Afghanistan to defeat the Pashtuns. They drove off the Taliban who did not stand up and fight. The Taliban simply ran for cover into the hinterlands of Pakistan and are hiding like cowards. Drones are flying over their heads and they have to hide and escape during nights. The other Pashtuns are growing poppy. Pashtuns have managed to survive not because of some huge military might. They have been covered by Pakistan’s military withe expectation that when the Americans finally leave, Pakistan will get to control their destiny. Thus your mighty Pashtuns are at the mercy of Pakistan’s military. The other half is getting dole from the Americans.
Even the Russians could have crushed your dear Pashtuns if the Americans did not come from behind and help them. All that has been forgotten. What this tells me is that your dear Pashtuns have no sense of gratitude and can stab those who helped them from behind.
Do not build propaganda for no reason. Pashtuns, today are just like other fellow humans. If you carry a machine gun, it does not make you invincible. Others can carry it too.