China-Pakistan-Afghanistan-building economic ties

April 28, 2011

During a visit to Beijing in late 2009, President Barack Obama asked China to help stabilise Pakistan and Afghanistan. The logic was obvious. China is a long-standing ally of Pakistan with growing investments there and in Afghanistan; it has the money to pay for the economic development and trade both countries need; and with its own worries about its Uighur minority, it is suspicious of militant Islamists.  The challenge was in achieving this without angering India, which fought a border war with China in 1962 and is wary of its alliance with Pakistan.

A year-and-a-half on, efforts to forge that economic cooperation between China, Pakistan and Afghanistan are in full swing – though perhaps not entirely in the way Obama envisaged. The Wall Street quoted Afghan officials as saying that Pakistan was lobbying Afghanistan’s president against building a long-term strategic partnership with the United States, urging him instead to look to Pakistan and China for help.

“The pitch was made at an April 16 meeting in Kabul by Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, who bluntly told Afghan President Hamid Karzai that the Americans had failed them both, according to Afghans familiar with the meeting,” the newspaper said. “Mr. Karzai should forget about allowing a long-term U.S. military presence in his country, Mr. Gilani said, according to the Afghans. Pakistan’s bid to cut the U.S. out of Afghanistan’s future is the clearest sign to date that, as the nearly 10-year war’s endgame begins, tensions between Washington and Islamabad threaten to scuttle America’s prospects of ending the conflict on its own terms.”

The Pakistan government has denied it made this suggestion, as did a spokesman for Karzai quoted by the newspaper.  Neither country is in a position to turn its back on the United States, still the world’s pre-eminent military and economic power. But there is at least a kernel of truth in there, buried under a lot of spin which the Wall Street Journal itself said was probably an attempt by Afghan officials to influence talks on the relationship between the United States and Afghanistan after U.S. combat troops withdraw in 2014.

Indeed a lot of what is included in the Wall Street Journal story has been said in public by Pakistan itself, albeit without the same spin. 

 Pakistan Prime Minister Gilani told a news conference in Kabul that he and Karzai had agreed there was no military solution for Afghanistan. And they had agreed to work together to build economic and trade ties to seek stability through economic development.

“It has become imperative that we join our efforts and take ownership of our affairs so that we can overcome the pressing challenges. We believe that given the enormous resources – both human and natural – of our two countries, our collective economic potential is phenomenal,” he said.

“We have, today, agreed to give high priority and to work together the development track. This means optimally utilizing our natural economic complementarities and that of the region as a whole, for socio-economic development and prosperity. Several important mega projects, including trans-regional projects, such as the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Gas Pipeline; building of electricity transmission lines; enhancing physical connectivity by building or upgrading requisite infrastructure, including road and rail transportation and communication links as well as expediting the implementation mechanisms for the Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement etc. need to be fast-tracked.”

Any talk of building up trade, oil pipelines and roads, at least from a Pakistan point of view, invariably involves China with its large and growing market. China has several thousand labourers in Pakistan working on infrastructure and building, repairing or expanding roads, which would open up trade routes and also link up with Pakistan’s Arabian Sea port of Gwadar, giving it access to Gulf oil supplies.

Pakistan, meanwhile, has always said it regards China as an “all weather” friend. Its top officials, including Pakistan Army chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, have visited Beijing regularly.  (the Foreign Secretary will be Beijing for talks on April 28-29). And it has never made any secret of its concern that the United States, which abandoned the region after the Soviet Union left Afghanistan in 1989, might do so again. That concern is growing as the United States becomes mired in the Middle East and faces mounting economic difficulties, exacerbated by rising oil prices.

So logically, it would make sense for Pakistan to forge economic partnerships with Afghanistan and China. The question is whether this automatically means a loss for the United States. Arguably, better economic conditions would make it easier to stabilise Afghanistan while also providing jobs to Afghan and Pakistani youths who might otherwise be drawn into Islamist militancy.

Indeed there is even a certain amount of strategic convergence between what Pakistan and the United States say they want in seeking stability in Afghanistan – something of an irony given the current tensions in the U.S.-Pakistan relationship. Washington has been pushing for years for improved relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan, including an increase in transit trade.

In an article at Foreign Policy, Steve Levine argues there would be nothing wrong with China playing a much bigger role in Afghanistan.  ”… China has a record of actually building what it says it’s going to build, and not waiting for bankers to see a dime to be earned on the interest, or necessarily for a civil war to wind down,” he writes.  “Pakistan’s notion of a favorable outcome would be an Afghanistan open to the return of the Taliban. That should not miff the United States, which did not attack Afghanistan to dethrone the Taliban, but al Qaeda.”

“As for China, the only matter about which it’s more obsessive than its political agnosticism in search of resource riches is its obsessive suppression of anything Uighur, the Turkic Muslim people native to Xinjiang Province. Beijing is absolutely certain that Uighurs are intent on destroying Han Chinese dominance in Xinjiang (they are probably right), and have pursued exile Uighurs throughout Central Asia, and into Afghanistan and Pakistan. China has made it a quid pro quo with these neighbors — suppress local Uighurs, and obtain Chinese goodies. Therefore, a strong China would probably not encourage the revival of dangerous local militancy in Afghanistan. That is the paramount American goal — ensuring that a new big terrorist threat doesn’t emerge there.”

The challenge for Washington is not whether a greater Chinese role would be potentially in its interests — after all Obama asked for it – but whether it can actually manage delicate coordination with Beijing while also juggling a highly charged relationship with Pakistan (and worrying about the Middle East and economic problems at home.)

In testimony to a U.S. commission this week, Andrew Small, a China expert at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, argued that Washington is indeed getting a measure of how to manage its relationship with China – albeit with many caveats.

“China’s ‘assertiveness’ has become the tagline for international anxiety about Chinese foreign policy behavior, but it is not assertiveness per se that is the
real concern. After all, the United States and other countries have spent many years encouraging China to take a more active leadership role on the
international stage. The disquiet has rather resulted from Beijing’s narrow, nationalistic conception of interests,” he said.

“The upside is that after some initial missteps, the U.S. policy response has been increasingly effective, both regionally and globally, and China has had to
recalibrate its approach accordingly. Moreover, in concert with its friends and allies, the United States has the means to ensure that an unconstructive
approach remains costly for Beijing to pursue. The open question, however, is whether the Chinese leadership is willing, or even fully able, to go through a deeper process of revisiting its strategy as a result. If not, competition and confrontation are likely to become ever more central features in U.S.-China relations, and in Asia more broadly, in the years to come.”

Meanwhile as far as India is concerned, opinion is divided on whether to fear a rising China or work with it and share in its growing economy and increasing global clout. India has managed to build trade ties with China even without resolving its dispute over the two countries’ long Himalayan border.  Going right back to the time of its first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, it argued for the need for an opening of the ancient trade routes into Central Asia — abruptly shut by the partition of the subcontinent in 1947. 

 This week India is holding its first trade negotiations with Pakistan since the November 2008 attack on Mumbai as part of a gradual thaw in ties between New Delhi and Islamabad. Its prime minister, Manmohan Singh, is firmly in the camp of those who focus on economic development rather than strategic rivalry. That leaves him in tune with the Chinese argument that its greater involvement in the region is potentially a win-win, rather than the zero sum game which tends to dominate thinking on Afghanistan.

And we had an indication this month of how the current Indian government is likely to respond to increasing Chinese involvement in Pakistan and Afghanistan. It was probably quite  significant in showing which way the cards will fall in the debate between strategic rivalry versus economic development. It had to do with building roads, which can either be seen as a military threat (useful for invading armies) or an economic gain (helpful for trade).

A senior Indian commander was quoted by Indian newspapers as saying that the Chinese “are actually stationed and present” on the Line of Control, the ceasefire line dividing the Pakistani and Indian parts of Kashmir. That sort of development would normally set alarm bells ringing so loudly in Delhi that they would explode or short-circuit. Yet the Indian foreign ministry comment on the subject was relatively muted, arguing for vigilance rather than alarm. 

The government, it said, “closely and regularly monitors all developments along our borders, which can have a bearing on our security. We continuously review and take all measures necessary to ensure the safety and security of our people, as well as, territorial integrity of the nation.”  (It is perhaps no coincidence that India’s top diplomat, Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao, has played a major role in managing peace talks with Pakistan and is also a former ambassador to China.)

As mentioned above, the Chinese are heavily involved in road-building, and the road to Skardu, opposite Kargil on the Line of Control,  is currently being expanded. India is also building roads on its side. And before the Mumbai attacks soured relations, Prime Minister Singh had talked about opening the road between Skardu and Kargil – the scene of a bitter border war fought between India and Pakistan in 1999 – to improve trade routes to Central Asia and China. 

Roads, and even pipelines, are far less likely to gain media attention than spy rows — and the very public spat between Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency and the CIA triggered by the arrest in Lahore of CIA contractor Raymond Davis has dominated the narrative for months.  Yet economic development is arguably the one that governments care about — in democracies, it is what helps get them re-elected.  Washington has also repeatedly stressed the need for economic development in both Pakistan and Afghanistan.   Seen through that prism, the talk of increasing economic cooperation between Pakistan, Afghanistan and China looks somewhat different.

And after all, if Pakistan’s prime minister can stand up at a press conference in Kabul and talk about electricity transmission lines, maybe the rest of us should pay attention. In the debate between economic development and strategic rivalry, the former – for now – is winning out.

Comments

Consider a while back when the argument was repeatedly that Pakistan was a failed state at the brink of collapse. It is apparently clear Pakistan is ready to dump the US just the way it was dumped by US back after the Soviet withdrawal of Afghanistan (Geneva accords). Today the tables have been turned, since 2001 we have come a long way, though I do not expect Pakistan’s defence minister to call President Obama and ask if they are with us or against us? and that we will bomb the US back to stone age. It is already clear we are with China, also India is engaged in normalisation of relations after the Mumbai attacks and speaks of how Pakistan successfully managed the fallout. also in a recent visit by Chinese Prime Minister to Islamabad, his presidential plane was escorted by PAF Fighter jets over Islamabad airspace, the relationship continued to build on solid foundations despite all the symbolism. With Afghanistan, again India failed to gain foothold, Pakistan in turn is closely working with them to train the ANA(Afghan Army) and economic cooperation as well as conflict resolution. Domestically, Pakistan has managed to break the backbone of terrorists by conductiong aggressive military operations in 2009/10. Relations with Iran have improved over the years, democracy is strengthened. Saudi Arabia continues to be an important ally, just a week back minister Hina Khar was in the Kingdom to hold talks as Arab leaders worry Iranian influence on restive shia populace from Bahrain to Syria and beyond. Entire Arab state look towards Pakistan to balance Iran;s influence. In the midst of all this complex geo-politics, US-Pakistan relations are just one part of the story. And if at all, the moral of this story is; do not just write off Pakistan as yet. There is more to come, eventually, the US will have to make a choice whether it wants to be an ally. And lastly, Pakistani government have fully supported the ISI and stated all ISI actions are sanctioned by the government. Looks like the house is all in order.

Posted by Umairpk | Report as abusive
 

once again the red dragon bares its claws as the mighty chinese nationalists forge a ‘go china’ policy that bares no resemblance to the free market heroes that our western business leaders adore so easily. now the free market must rise up and pre-emptive strike into afghanistan and into pakistan with western innovative developmental strategies to curb this new chinese economic action plan! we all know the two sided coin that chinese development go hand in hand with their own communist agenda. its clear to this canadian that more needs to be done by our western leaders to encourage the private sector to intervene and stave off the threat of chinese dominated markets in many sectors of pakistans and afghanistans economy. the world now bares witness to the red dragon as it climbs up mountains that nato lives have fought to hold as freedom has sacrificed more than china has ever. now this canadian upholds the spirit of my countrymen as i urge western leaders to seize the moment and offer opportunities to our afghani and pakistani brothers in favor of their siding with the red giant and its quest for its own ‘go global’ policies.

Posted by BigK007 | Report as abusive
 

China takes. That’s about it. It will build every infrastructure to take things for itself. If Pakistanis and Afghans are day dreaming of some major trade with China, they must start using their heads instead of their rear ends.

China will leach out all the resources in these mad lands for its consumption. And it has an enormous appetite. Pakistanis and Afghans are walking into the dragon’s mouth because of their blind dislike for the Americans. If Pakistan thinks China is going to help decimate India in the long run, they have to realize that their heads are inside the dragon’s mouth. And it will bite without any sense of guilt.

The US is not going anywhere. Letting China in is worse than a defeat at the hands of the Taliban.

Pakistan has not learned its lessons. It still wants to turn world powers against each other in its backyard. There is no realization that they can get crushed in the bargain.

India is working on constructive projects inside Afghanistan. But Pakistanis campaign at the top of their voices that India is sabotaging Pakistan from there. But China is building roads, bridges, air fields, ports etc inside Pakistan and Indians are not supposed to object to that. Talk about fairness.

India is not losing anything in Afghanistan. If the US leaves, Afghanistan will return to factional fighting and every power in the region will back one faction, India and Pakistan included. So far China has stayed out of it. They would gain nothing by backing any faction.

Pakistan needs to accept India’s presence and stature. It is in no position to dictate terms. This region cannot be settled without the involvement of all parties – Russia, India, China, Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan. This is not the time to push each other out and try to make gains. It simply won’t work. Regional co-operation is needed.

Like it or not, India is a major player in the region. Treat it with respect and courtesy will be reciprocated. If you treat us as an enemy, and you will be treated as such. Just like everyone else, we have every right to protect our interests. We are not going allow anyone to hijack the settlement process. We will be fair. But we are not going to allow any unfair acts.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

what’s that sound?….looks like someone is out for some breast thumping again! :)

the house, certainly is in order!

Posted by Mortal1 | Report as abusive
 

Another great article by Ms MacDonald. Chinese airforce team was in Skardu during the Kargil war to assist the Pak F-16 pilots and India knew about it. Today they are present everywhere in Gilgit-Baltistan. Please visit http://www.gilgitbaltistan.us for more information on how China is slowly dominating South Asian political arena. We foresee a regional military and economic alliance of all Arab countries, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Central Asian Republics and China in the coming years. This will be detrimental to US interests in the ME and SA. China;s interest to built rail road through Gilgit Baltistan, which will end up connecting Kashgar and Urumuchi with Iran and Afghanistan will make GB a lynchpin in the near future and political quarters will have interesting events to witness

Posted by Senge | Report as abusive
 

I like the way people who a few months ago were demanding that they be given more assistance and financial aid because they were loyal allies are now talking of ‘turning the tables’ because of what happened over 20 years ago!

If China can help both Pakistan and Afghanistan to return to normalcy I don’t see why anyone else should feel threatened.

I just wonder at what stage the US decides to turn off the money tap and washes its hands off its staunch ally. Of course then be prepared to hear the same people complain saying “once again the US has let us down’. You just can’t win with some people. They have mastered the act of playing not just two but three and four parties together on a tight string which one day will just snap and catch them on the nose.

Posted by DaraIndia | Report as abusive
 

The author brings up some great points. The evidence shows us that the Chinese are very nationalistic in their foreign policy. Therefore, it is perfectly reasonable to assume that the Chinese will continue down the same path in Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

This means more economic development for Afghanistan. However, the development will be focused on metals, and minerals. Furthermore, China’s model is to bring in its own workers (evident in Africa). They will hire locals but not to an extent which will fundamentally develop Afghanistan. But this does not mean that Af will not benefit. Something will be created where there was nothing before. This is good for Afghanistan.

As for Pak’s role in the picture – I am not sure. Pak can definitely play the role of a deal maker in economic terms. However, I don’t know to what extent that will benefit Pak’s economy. Pak has developed industries (farming and textiles) and therefore doesn’t need development to the extent Afghanistan needs. Rather, it needs access to markets (the bigger, the better) and China isn’t providing that access (at least for now). All of China’s major trade partners (EU, US, Brazil, India) have trade deficits with China. I don’t think Pak’s economy will fare any better. China’s economy is of cheap goods and it is very hard to compete with the price levels. China isn’t even a top export destination for Pak goods.

Irony here is that Pak is right next to one of the biggest markets where its goods would be able to compete flawlessly. However, this is a Pandora box so lets not go there.

As for India, I think its influence has starkly decreased in the whole Af-Pak picture. It isn’t completely gone, however, it’s not that powerful either. But that is okay, you cant win everything. India just needs to keep growing. That should be the focus. As long as the GDP keeps growing (5% or higher), the rest of the chips will fall in place sooner or later. You can keep spending more, and more on certain things such as military modernization etc and still keep them at the same percentage of the GDP. If India keeps growing, countries will come to it for the ever growing lucrative middle class. This is where India needs to use the leverage to go after its interests . It has already started to do so (various FTAs and in the works FTAs) but still has a long way to go .

As for the US, I don’t think they’ll leave. They probably will do what has happened in the past with Japan, Korea, etc. A limited presence will be there (~50K troops).

In sum, the building of economic ties will happen but the benefits will vary depending on the country itself. Maybe these economic ties will lead to a greater period of calm? I don’t know. Maybe. Will the people in the FATA regions see these ties as a point of convergence? Probably not.

Posted by rainydays | Report as abusive
 

A pax sinica may not be too bad. Once the Chinese are invested in the region, they can probably be trusted to ensure that no troublemakers disrupt their moneymaking activities. India may be disappointed that the bad guys seem to be getting away without punishment under this dispensation, but it’s more important to keep an eye on the bigger picture. While we would like to see the LeT and ISI come to a sticky end, there could be a certain amusing comfort in seeing their cadres eking out a future living in a Chinese-operated shoe factory or some such. (Ni hao! Leave your jihad at the door and get started on those shoe uppers, now!)

Perhaps Beijing will succeed where Washington could not (and indeed, only made things worse). As Chairman Deng rightly said, who cares if a cat is black or white as long as it catches mice? Something for us Indians to philosophise about.

Regards,
Ganesh Prasad

Posted by prasadgc | Report as abusive
 

Even after being specifically invited by the US to play a role in Afghanistan, why has China done nothing so far?

Fair weather friend or bad weather, China is hestitant to step into a morass and play any role in stabilising a region that is in turmoil. It is interested in growing its economy not in playing international policeman. In my opinion China will not be very keen on accepting this role.

Posted by DaraIndia | Report as abusive
 

In international politics the Chinese play by 3 rules:

1) Ruthless economic exploitation, balance heavily tilted in favor of China in any business relationship with ANY country

2)Using lower level players like North Korea and Pakistan as pawns to check mate bigger players, bringing ruin to these pawns

3)Never getting their hands directly dirty, benefitting from other peoples’ loss while keeping at a distance to maintain their own economic growth and reap benefits.

However, it will be (more) good news for India, if Pakistan stops being an “ally” of the US/West.

Sweet.

Posted by netizen | Report as abusive
 

China experiment has not been tried. So far China has not played the role of a leader. It has become a semi-super power of sorts with economic and military strength. China has not officiated any mediation between nations. It has remained silent on most global issues and has confined international engagement only confined to matters concerned with itself. As a culture, it has evolved on the authority and submissive citizen role model over eons. While the powers of the past evolved based on individualism and equality, China has evolved on a different path. Its outlook and approach will be dictated by its own up bringing. It will encourage more authoritative governments and help such governments force their people to submit. It works in China. But it may not work elsewhere. The US did the same for its own benefits. But if people stood up and revolted, the US did not turn against those people. It allowed the dictatorships to collapse or gave the leaders asylum. Over a period of time, it tried to patch up with the people of those countries. China is a different animal. It will help the dictators to the very end so that people can be made to submit. In a world era dominated by China, there will be many countries where “peace” will prevail with dictators clamping down on their citizens.

Now comes Afghanistan. So far China has stayed out of it over the past three decades. This is despite being in the vicinity of the country. Afghanistan is one place where policies that worked elsewhere failed to work. Russians tried their methods and it did not last long. Pakistan tried its hands and burnt itself in the bargain. The US tried its ways and has not made any headway. Afghanistan is one place where it is very difficult to establish a central authority, something the Chinese would like to have in the first place. This means they will have to take sides with one of the factions that shows the potential to dominate others. And such a group will need to be in conflict with others to keep them under their control.

When China gets involved, it brings its own resources – labor, engineers, planners etc. They stay secluded, do not know anything beyond Chinese interaction and work on missions beneficial to their government. Afghanistan is a place of war lords and bandits. And they will raid these units periodically for ransom and deals. This has been their way. China will have to resort to brutal ways to suppress them or spend enormously to keep them engaged in conflicts that are directed away from them. This is the great game. If China gets into this rodeo horse, it will be tossed and twisted just like everyone else did. There is nothing special in the case of China that can enable it to handle the situation differently.

So China will try to use Pakistan as a proxy to achieve its goals. From business standpoint, there are vast minerals in Afghanistan. If China can get access to that, then that’s all matters. Pakistan knows the situation in Afghanistan and is hoping that China will use it as a proxy, thereby providing the needed livelihood for itself. And Pakistan has some plans to act as an intermediary. This is why it wants to control Afghanistan using the Taliban as its proxy. Pakistan knows that this place will be in perpetual conflict. So long as it has its proxies control vital areas, they get to dictate terms. If China wants the resources badly, Pakistan will try to get something in return from China. And China will have no hesitation in obliging.

Pakistan is looking at the China-Afghanistan-Pakistan equation from the above angle. This has no dependency on the US or other outside forces. India is not even in the picture. It can easily get evicted out of Afghanistan once Chinese get involved. Once again strategic depth equations would be resumed.

All is fine. Only if Pakistan gets to drive the process. India has to see what it has to lose and what the future repercussions of this will be. Therefore it is in India’s strategic interest to counter this move with the help of the US. We cannot afford to allow the balance tilt against our interests. Pakistan is not seeking a solution that benefits all. It is only looking at its interests. It is very dangerous to allow it to take away the pie.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

China has been involved in far more than road-building in Pakistan – for example the deep water port they built at Gwadar to enable transit of Iranian oil to China. Given that both Iran and China are both economic/political rivals of the US, it’s a mystery that the mainstream media so rarely report on the Gwadar port, or the vast highway structure the Chinese built connecting it with the rest of Pakistan.

I, like many Pakistani analysts, believe Obama isn’t being totally honest about his real (strategic) reasons for expanding the war into Pakistan – that Pakistan, not Afghanistan, is the real target. The Pentagon/CIA make no secret of their desire to see energy and mineral rich Balochistan secede from Pakistan to become a US client state – just like the energy and mineral rich former Soviet republics Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan.

And given that the CIA has been supporting the Baloch separatist movement since 2002, Raymond Davis is just the tip of the iceberg.

I blog about this at “Our CIA freedom fighters in Pakistan”
http://stuartbramhall.aegauthorblogs.com  /2011/03/07/our-cia-freedom-fighters-in -pakistan/

Posted by stuartbramhall | Report as abusive
 

Here is more flames coming forth:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/29/world/ 29petraeus.html?_r=1&hp

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

There is an article on the status of Gwadar port. It was written in 2006. I don’t know how much has changed between then and now.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/ HH09Df03.html

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

Going by all the moves by various parties and inflexibility of American position regarding AfPak situation, the situation will come to a head within months. Mark Grossman is coming to India to size up India’s role. Now is the time for India to clarify it’s own policy.
The terror attacks in Pakistan are picking up again. The purpose it destabilize Pakistan further.
I see a possibility of Bombay-II to start India Pakistan conflict.
Another possibility is to remove Karzai from presidency in Kabul.

It will get worse before it gets better.

Posted by Matrixx | Report as abusive
 

Matrixx: “The purpose it destabilize Pakistan further.”

Actually it is not so much about destabilizing Pakistan. It is about weakening the enemy, which happens to be your military. I am sure the Americans knew all along that your military has engaged itself deep into evil activities, mainly to achieve regional dominance and control India, whom it considers as its worst adversary. So long as it did not affect American interests, they did not pay much attention to it. When they have a mission they want no hindrances on their path towards completing it. So by taking on Pakistani military as an ally, they miscalculated that it would be easy for them to accomplish their mission in Afghanistan. They did not expect Pakistani military to be source of all ills, though they’d very much like not to believe it. But as time goes on, and deadlines approaching, the villain emerges out of the gloomy dark background. Now the villain has to be confronted or there would be no end in sight. The US has come to admit reluctantly that it is Pakistani military that is the source of the problem. They know that they need Pakistani ground for their logistics and have to rely on Pakistani military at the same time. By attempting to chop of its limbs (read as militant groups managed by the military for its purposes), the US has begun to inflict pain. They cannot really confront an enemy that is nuclear armed and clever. So they are beginning to do what they know best – weaken the Pakistani military. If a civil war can be triggered, then they can fan the fuel. It is not going to get worse before it gets better. It is going to get worse and worse than that at the end. Look at how their involvement has reduced Afghanistan to rubble. It is the people we all should be concerned about. Let them fight it out amongst themselves. What happens to the ordinary people?

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

I think, for all the chest-thumping, the Pakistani establishment has finally seen the writing on the wall. They can’t fight on multiple fronts, and they have to settle with at least some of their enemies. That’s why the trade talks with India have gone so smoothly. I believe that, quietly, without any fuss, the relationship with India will improve. It takes another ‘M’ (markets) to trump the three traditional ‘M’s (mullah, military, militants) that have been the hallmark of Pakistan.

I also think that although another terrorist attack on India is still possible (some would say it is virtually guaranteed, since these attacks happen precisely when the peace process gathers traction), both governments will take it in their stride without escalation.

I’m therefore optimistic. What we’ll probably see is not positive headlines but the increasing scarcity of negative headlines. That’s why it’s called “normalisation”. The relationship will soon become ordinary enough not to be worth reporting on. No news is literally good news.

Regards,
Ganesh Prasad

Posted by prasadgc | Report as abusive
 

“I also think that although another terrorist attack on India is still possible (some would say it is virtually guaranteed, since these attacks happen precisely when the peace process gathers traction), both governments will take it in their stride without escalation.” Prasad

I am almost sure that another attack will not be taken in their stride by ordinary Indians. You may well be right in saying the Govt. may take it in its stride. At least the present one will try to. I have grave doubts that the public mood, next time, will permit Man Mohan Singh or anyone else the same leeway as it has so far. The mood of the average Indian has changed from letting the Govt do what it wants – govts know best attitude – to one of strongly opposing navel gazing.

This is not to advocate conflict but a call to be proactive – both covertly and overtly.

Posted by DaraIndia | Report as abusive
 

This is how US can play the game. Encourage China to move into Pakistan to help make Pakistan properous. China is already there but needs a good push to jerk things up. If Pakistan becomes wealthy US can stop funding the Pakistanis who doesn’t really help US as much as expected. But a wealthy Pakistan will have to look after her interest which means sooner or later Pakistan has to deal with Afganistan for her own safety and peace. At the same time US can coerce China to invest separately into Afganistan as well as to fish out anti-China elements (which includes extremists that US needs to deal with anyway). This is a clear green light for China to deal with terrorists without US having to lay a hand and China will agree. With economic developments from two fronts (China and Pakistan), perhaps the “Taliban” factor will diminish. When there is money to be made without sacrificing one’s life think they will drop the guns and maybe cut down poppy farms. This way both Afganistan and Pakistan can be stabilized. When China is in Afganistan, don’t worry, even if US keeps quiet India will rush in even without invitation. With three investors, Afganistan can stand up alone and not be dependent on Pakistan alone and over time loosen the Pakistan-Afganistan relationship making it easier for US to deal with Afganistan, Pakistan and India all separately. US can then relive NATO troops and stop owing the allies more favours and US armies can be re-deployed elsewhere.

Posted by vision966 | Report as abusive
 

“I see a possibility of Bombay-II to start India Pakistan conflict.”
If you go back and look at the history of how the wars were started in recent times, you would understand what I’m saying. I don’t think either India or Pakistan wants war. Suppose there is a third party interested in having this kind of conflict, and they also know that a major terror attack could force GOI to follow such a course, then you have an extremely costly policy issue at hand. How do you handle it and the consequent fall out?

Posted by Matrixx | Report as abusive
 

> I see a possibility of Bombay-II to start India Pakistan conflict.
[...]
> How do you handle it and the consequent fall out?

Bombay-I was an ISI operation through and through. Lots of denial and distancing, first yes Shuja Pasha, then no Shuja Pasha..Ajmal Qasab isn’t from Faridkot…No, these are his parents…Oops, can’t find them anymore.. What phone transcripts?…Hafeez Sayeed arrested, then released for “lack of evidence”…Who’s Tahawwur Rana?…Who’s Major Iqbal???

Finally, guilt was proven in spite of all the cover-up and no one was fooled any more (if they ever were). I think only Pakistani citizens believed the lies put out in the beginning because they desperately wanted to believe their beloved motherland wasn’t a terrorist state. Too bad, wakey, wakey. It is. Or at least it has been until now.

If the next one isn’t an ISI job but started by some third party (three letter word, starts with a C, ends with an A), then don’t be churlish. Admit immediately that the guys might have come from Pakistan, and send Shuja Pasha over at once to help with the investigation. That might help to diffuse the anger and prevent a war. (That is, if your guys aren’t really itching for one, given your fascination for heat and radiation.)

Regards,
Ganesh Prasad

Posted by prasadgc | Report as abusive
 

I agree with Ganesh. The CIA might decide to draw India into the conflict, now that the US is on the defensive. Taliban has declared a spring offensive. The US alone cannot manage this anymore. If a push can come from the Indian side, and a nuclear war can be prevented at the same time, then Pakistan will be really squeezed to act along American diktat. Everything is based on timing. They have tried everything. The Americans can unleash their propaganda machinery to paint Pakistan in bad light if Mumbai II occurs. India will be forced to retaliate. This is when the Americans will do everything to prevent Pakistan from laying its hands on its nukes. They will force a conventional war so that it weakens Pakistan even more. All the diplomatic drill going on seems to be orchestrated by the US. This is like the calm before the next storm. Another conventional war will weaken Pakistan tremendously. And the US might have its operatives ready to pounce on Pakistan’s nuclear facilities when India retaliates.

Americans have miscalculated before. So their attempt has a 50% chance of failure. If Pakistan manages to retaliate with nukes despite American efforts, everything will be over. Then it will escalate into a world war with China, Iran, Pakistan on one side, India, US, its allies on the other. The US will let Pakistan touch its nukes because of its heavy investment in India.

If another Mumbai style attack happens in India, the Congress led government will fall and might lose the elections if they do not address public sentiments and act. The US might be trying to trigger a small scale conventional war along the lines of Kargil conflict to weaken Pakistan or penetrate its nuclear hideouts. It is a move with calculated risks. But Obama is running out of choices and time.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

“The US will let Pakistan touch its nukes because of its heavy investment in India.”

I meant NOT.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

The key thing to understand about terrorism is innovation/ surprise.

Paks tried various terror strategies for decades bombing temples, buses, trains, hijacking flights, attacking parliament, nothing worked.

Paks tried high value targets- IISc in Bangalore- this low key attempts fizzled.

Sending paks/terrorists by boat and taking hostages was a new strategy. Repeating of the same is unlikely.

Paks are likely to try something different. Poisoning water supplies for example. IMHO, letting PIA flights into Delhi, Mumbai is bade idea. For that matter letting PIA flights into any city in the West is a bad idea. If this is needed PIA flights should be allowed to land in isolated desert area.

I agree with Daraindia that, simply lying down and taking it again will be a bad idea.

Posted by netizen | Report as abusive
 

Having said that, the key for India is to protect its economic interests and national growth while tackling Paks. Easier said than done.

Making them pay for their aggression indirectly is the key. Peaceniks may not like such discussions. This is the sad reality. There is no sign paks will abandon aggression and are willing to live peacefully.

Posted by netizen | Report as abusive
 

KPSingh
I’ll give it to you that you atleast understand the problem.
You did not present any Indian solution but let somebody else make the critical decisions. Interesting!

Posted by Matrixx | Report as abusive
 

What we need to concentrate on is to get our economy away from the use of oil. If we can lead ourselves off oil, we will create a new economic boom like the internet did. Unfortunately, most of our politicians are bought and paid for by the oil industry and they will fight us right till the last drop of oil, and the last semblance of our once great country are gone.

Posted by fromthecenter | Report as abusive
 

Matrixx: “You did not present any Indian solution but let somebody else make the critical decisions. Interesting!”

India needs only one solution – keep its rear end covered and stay out of any trouble. But that is not going to happen.

When tackling huge forest fires that seem to spread and threaten homes, fire fighters will sometimes set up fire in another place to force the fire away from its natural course. I think the CIA will be doing something similar to it. If India gets entangled with Pakistan, then while Pakistan is busy engaged with India, the US can cut inroads into Pakistan’s networks, even try its hands on seizing its nukes and weaken Pakistan’s military. They know that the only long lasting solution to the whole conflict is reducing Pakistan’s military and its intelligence network to rubble. In reality Pak military is the villain. Though Pakistanis will not like to hear it and believe that their military is the most honest and patriotic institution, to others, it appears different. It has taken the whole nation of Pakistan as a skin to protect itself and its interests. It is acting like a nation within a namesake nation, making its own foreign policies, governing and running its own legal business to sustain itself. Its nukes not only provide it the needed power, but also have empowered various militant groups that have become a menace to the outside world and sometimes Pakistan itself. The US is slowly realizing that it cannot afford to be selective in dealing with these groups. They all appear like sharing the same root while blooming at various spots. Taking some out is no guarantee that new stems and leaves will not sprout elsewhere. The root is not Al Qaeda or the Taliban. They are overgrown stems. The root unfortunately is Pakistani military and its ISI. Until the roots is destroyed, there will be no solutions. Americans have tried everything. There is only one thing left – to bring India from the Eastern side and engage them with Pak military on one side, while taking the rear guard action from the Western front. And the CIA network built inside Pakistan will unleash its havoc, thereby weakening the root I am talking about. In the long run, this plan will benefit all, Pakistanis included. The only risk to this is a nuclear confrontation that can go out of control. Another factor is what China will do. I sincerely hope things do not go to that extent.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

KP Singh said:

> Another factor is what China will do.

Short answer – China will do nothing.

Let me express my opinion about China. I have a lot of respect for that country, so this should not be seen as dissing. China is not the next US. They are conservative to the point of timidity. They plan for the long term and are prepared to wait for decades, but they will not act boldly and decisively in a fluid situation. If anyone shows a bit of steel or spine, they back down immediately. They would rather let a hundred opportunities slip than risk a war with a bold gambit, especially when the outcome is uncertain.

Look at it from the Chinese angle. They have a lot to lose from any conflict. Apart from the obvious economic impact, investment guru Jim Rogers points out a little-understood fact of their society – all their soldiers are only sons and only grandsons. Hence those soldiers are relatively much more precious compared to the soldiers of other countries. Their lives will not be risked needlessly in any war unless it is in the defence of the country.

The Chinese ideology is also pragmatic and inward-looking. They are neither jihadis nor expansionist communists. If we view 1962 as a retaliation for VK Krishna Menon’s foolish adventurism rather than as treachery, then we can see it is entirely in character and everything falls into place. Also, in spite of the “all-weather friend” tag, Pakistan has in fact been deeply disappointed with the reluctance of China to come to its aid in all its wars. The future will be no different.

Although we criticise the Indian government for passivity and even cowardice, the fact is that India is capable of making bold decisions, much more so than China. India’s mistakes stem from its actions and are usually obvious. China’s mistakes are missed opportunities because they rarely act.

India only needs to worry about Pakistan and the US. The potential for mischief from these countries only grows as India’s economy improves. China will only become less willing to escalate matters as India gets stronger and stands up to bullying.

My two cents.

Regards,
Ganesh Prasad

Posted by prasadgc | Report as abusive
 

China is the EXAXCT anti-thesis of Pakistan when it comes to how to build & how to be a viable a nation state.

Chinese only goal is economy and prosperity for their people. Geostrategic games are distant secondary things they get excited about, if they do it should not affect economy, buisiness.

Paks are the opposite. All play, no work :-)

Paks like to play just for the sake of playing. You can see this from the posts of Umair and Matrixx at this site.

Posted by netizen | Report as abusive
 

I agree with Dara & Ganesh. It would be unwise for the Pakistanis to expect China to get it’s hands dirty in the Af-Pak mess. Anyone who has done business with the Chinese would know that they are hard-working & focused but also quite conservative, non-aggressive & unsentimental. They are just not the kind of people who take risks & that is especially true now, since they have a lot too lose.

Posted by Mortal1 | Report as abusive
 

KP,

I think the scenario you paint, US-India-Pakistan quagmire, is a very very remote possibility if at all.

Firstly Obama is not that desperate, his aim is to quit, not solve any problems in Afghanistan. Expanding the war is not the way to get there. He would also like to get Afghanistan out of the way lest it hamper his re-election. He also has a Congress to answer to and after Iraq and now Libya it won’t just run along with whatever he wants done.

India, on the other hand is not ever going to get involved in an war on its doorstep to help out the US. I think we can give the Indian political leadership that much credit at least. When it refuses to start a fight over its own security it is hardly going to be a poodle for the USA.

My two bits.

Posted by DaraIndia | Report as abusive
 

Ganesh,

Do not be too naive about China. Krishna Menon did not trigger their invasion in 1962. Nehru had the same naive trust of Zhou En Lai like you are having and he paid the price for it. China has resorted to using proxies because India has nuclear bombs and missiles. They will not go in for any full scale war, but can use small level conflicts from various angles. The danger is that if India gets engaged with those small level conflicts, China can engage Pakistan to fill in the gaps. I mentioned about missed opportunities for China and Pakistan in the past. They can create another one. This will force India to rely on the US for support.

China is interested in economic growth currently. No questions there. But if inflation goes up or a Jasmine revolution breaks out, tyrannical rulers typically defect the attention by relying on external enemies. A war really helps in that regard. Things are not looking rosy on the economic front. If the US defaults or if its purchasing power drops, China loses a huge chunk of its market. It has made money manufacturing for others at the lowest price. They are not marketing their own products. Most are products of foreign companies for foreign markets. If their manufacturing base suddenly finds itself with lack of work, thing can go out of control. These are the strained moments when wars break out. Having been used to brutal methods to suppress dissent, Chinese leaders will seek other ways to get out of any kind of public unrest.

One needs to connect the dots. One needs to observe the developments that are going on around and see where the trends will lead to. Given a choice, China will do nothing. But right now, that choice might be hard to come by. China has made it to where it is by relying on a US consumer market. The US still has not recovered from the economic woes. It is in war engagements in different parts of the world and some are getting ugly.

That China will do nothing is only a hope and not a sure thing. India is mired in corruption scandals. These are the moments a Mumbai II really helps the ruling party as well. It makes people united and helps rally them into supporting a “retaliation.” Pakistanis military is feeling trapped. Everyone is seeing a way out. And conflicts, let people go to hell, really help.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

Dara: “I think the scenario you paint, US-India-Pakistan quagmire, is a very very remote possibility if at all.”

I am not disagreeing with you. I am only looking at various possible scenarios and outcomes. None of us are controlling any of the events. We are just analyzing them. My grandfather used to say that he could never imaging Khalistan movement arising at all. Yet it did. No one could predict the fall and demise of the Soviet Union either. Yet it disappeared into thin air. One can only project through extrapolations of trends. Who could have imagined a Jasmine revolution that is sweeping across the Middle East today? The world impression was that everyone was turning into radicalism there, reading for a global Jihad against the Western powers. No one had any inkling that these people were far removed from fundamentalist aspirations and were fighting for freedom and rights. Anything is possible.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

The only problem is can we retain and rebuild critical thinking among the pakistanis who are zia’s children and this is the question.
http://www.dawn.com/2011/04/29/children- of-zia.html
Well In my opinion, it all boils down to this one, whether pakistan can eventually bring the culture of critical thinking into their society which had been seeped deep into their bones by hatred and bigotry.

Posted by sensiblepatriot | Report as abusive
 

Whether the Chinese have the courage to act in a belligerent manner is displayed by their refusal to resolve border issues with India, Seperate Visas for J&K and claiming entire Arunachal pradesh as their own. They do so becuase they are fully aware that India cannot behave the same way pakistan does to India, by nurturing,training and perpetuating the terror machine.
They would do so everything to divert us from nation building and making us the market for their goods (like pakistan )and to avoid making us competetors in any field.

In any protracted war with India they know that their supply lines will be longer than India (in India’s case our’s are longer to Pakistan) and will result in a defeat for them. The only question is will India fight the war that long. Unlike the geography of India which is connected by plains to the northers sector. China has to traverse the tibet plateau to reach the frontier borders and any bombing of any critical roads will result in the collapse of their war machine. India though has similiar strategic posts, they are limited when compared to china as china’s has to cover literally thousands of kilometers from its industrial centres and hunders of kilometers of tibetan plateau and no matter how strong the reinforcements and inventory are, in a protracted battle the chinese are at a disadvantage and thats why they reverted back to their old position in Arunachal after invading india just as the winter was about to set in.

Posted by sensiblepatriot | Report as abusive
 

KP Singh said:

> Do not be too naive about China.

I’m not claiming the Chinese are angels. I’m arguing for India to be strong and to show that it is ready to stand up to any pressure. The only way to make China behave is to show strength and resolve. They won’t get into fights with opponents who won’t roll over. Only the US and Pakistan are known to get in over their head without first critically analysing the chances of victory :-) .

India made this mistake once, in Sri Lanka. (One could argue that China did this in Vietnam in 1979, but then they could not stand idly by when the Vietnamese toppled their puppet regime in Cambodia. It would have been a loss of face. In the event, it was a loss of face anyway when the Vietnamese inflicted huge losses.)

Regards,
Ganesh Prasad

Posted by prasadgc | Report as abusive
 

Ganesh: “I’m arguing for India to be strong and to show that it is ready to stand up to any pressure. The only way to make China behave is to show strength and resolve. They won’t get into fights with opponents who won’t roll over.”

Things have changed. China is much more powerful than it was even ten years ago. Their current strategy is to wait for the big bears to wear themselves down to death and then simply walk into their territories. China’s method now is to set up trade alliances and lend money to those who are in dire trouble. If Spain falls apart, China can invest in Spain and lock them down. In the case of India, its rise will not benefit China. Its democratic institutions and success can place immense pressure on its autocratic regime. They’d love to see India in a conflict on many fronts and stay down. And Chinese do not care for others’ opinions. What is theirs is theirs. There is no question of negotiations. As an Indian, I would not lower my guards against them. China is the one that gave Pakistan its nuclear bomb making technology, in addition to high grade uranium to go with it. They also facilitated missile technology transfer from North Korea to Pakistan. Look at where it has led to. They will poke where they can.

“Only the US and Pakistan are known to get in over their head without first critically analysing the chances of victory”

Pakistan has learned from its experience. The next attack on India will not be a copy of Mumbai attack. It will take a different form, catching everyone off guard. They are seeking a way out of the mess they are in. And India comes in handy for such occasions. They were amateurish during Operation Gibraltor in 1965. By 1989, they had learned from their mistakes. India was put on the defensive and the damage caused has been lethal. Americans are different. They are guided by power and ignorance. CIA is a rogue organization. I would put it at par with ISI. Both are criminal organizations with their own agenda.

I am sure David Coleman Headley worked for CIA and CIA might have been allowing him to work on Mumbai attack plans. May be that accommodation was needed to get something out of him inside Pakistan. That is probably why he was arrested quickly and placed inside a US prison. If RAW had gotten hold of him, a lot of ugly truths would have come out. My hunch is that both CIA and ISi were involved in Mumbai attacks. CIA had its own goals and ISI its. If a few hundred people die in the bargain, these agencies do not care.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

Latest news: Bin Laden has been killed. This will change all equations.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/02/world/ asia/osama-bin-laden-is-killed.html?_r=1 &hp

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

And Bin Laden was hiding in a mansion just outside of Islamabad. Hear this right. ISLAMABAD! All the morons have been saying he was dead long ago. The crooks have been taking American tax payers’ money and have been hiding the criminal. Criminals!

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

KP Singh said:

> And Bin Laden was hiding in a mansion just outside of Islamabad.

My cynicism goes in two directions.

1. I’ll bet that location “just outside Islamabad” was in Aabpara (the ISI heardquarters).

2. Great timing! Now Obama’s re-election campaign can be kicked off with a bang. He can declare victory and bring his soldiers home without losing face.

What does this mean for the way the US will now deal with Pakistan?

Regards,
Ganesh Prasad

Posted by prasadgc | Report as abusive
 

I watched Obama’s speech on CNN. Pakistan has been spared for now. They better cleanse themselves by exposing the other Al Qaeda leaders they have been hiding. This is not over yet. The US will be pursuing Al Zawahiri and other lesser leaders. I am sure Pakistani establishment knew all along where the criminals have been hiding. Now I understand why all the friction was between the Americans and Pakistan. President Obama said that they knew about Osama Bin laden’s presence in Abbotabad a week ago and he authorized the offensive. And it was run entirely by American operatives. A lot of worms will soon come out of the Pakistani can now. Details will emerge. I am so glad they got the animal. Americans can at least have a face saving exit from Afghanistan. Their main mission has been accomplished.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

Ganesh: “What does this mean for the way the US will now deal with Pakistan?”

They might pressure Pakistan into surrendering the other Al Qaeda leaders they have been hiding in other mansions. Pakistan will be so embarrassed now that they will have no option but to co-operate. They have to save their face now. May be Raymond Davis and others were on the tail of the criminal and the ISI was getting too uncomfortable. I have been saying all along that Pak military and the ISI are as much criminals as Bin Laden. I am glad they have been exposed.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

I am waiting with baited breath to hear the spin on this one. Strange, when everyone else has re=acted, almost four hours after the news broke, not one official word from the Pakistani administration. And thats where all the action took place.

I’m sure the wait will be worth it when the spin doctors get going.

For now I’m sure that mecifully it must at last be closure for the thousands of families who lost their loved one almost 10 years ago.

Posted by DaraIndia | Report as abusive
 

“almost four hours after the news broke, not one official word from the Pakistani administration.”

Sh…They are busy hiding the other Al Qaeda assets. Can’t put them in caves. Can’t put them in NWFP. Can’t put them in mountains. Can’t put them in mansions. How about Pakistan’s Presidential palace?

Atthar Abbas is preparing his denial statement. Or they are concocting a story of not knowing all along that Bin Laden had fooled them by pretending to be short. He was walking on his knees fooling the ever watchful Pakistani soldiers. Or Zaid Hamid will go on TV and claim that Bin Laden is still alive and what the Americans killed was Kareem Abdul Jabbar.

Seriously, the can has been opened. Worms are going to come out. That is why there is the dead silence. Imagine how it would feel when eggs hit the face.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

I want to see what ISI spokespeople like Brian Cloughley and Myra will spin their stories.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

US Navy seals helicopter flew direct to the compound. Odds are very high US operated independently.

Any one with trace amount of neuron activity in brain wouldn’t believe ISI didn’t know his whereabouts. I remember reading Umairs rants denying OBL was in pak.

KPSingh, your comment CIA might have been involved in Mumbai is ridiculously outrageous. your comments like these play right into Pak propaganda. It is one thing to criticize US for looking the other way on Pakistani terrorism in India, but entirely different matter to indulge in such wild accusation.

I hope mortal will post a robust response.

Posted by netizen | Report as abusive
 

Netizen said:

> KPSingh, your comment CIA might have been involved in Mumbai is ridiculously outrageous.

Never say never. Secret service agencies are capable of *anything*. I’m not saying they did it, but I wouldn’t rule it out either.

Regards,
Ganesh Prasad

Posted by prasadgc | Report as abusive
 

ISI might claim soon that Abbotabad does not exist in Pakistan.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

Pakistan has a lot of explaining to do. Americans knew since August 2010 that Bin Laden was staying at this place in Abbotabad. Now I can understand all the friction between the US and Pakistan and the fall out. They have been caught red handed. Even though there will be lot of window dressing statements like Pakistan is a the fore front on the war on terror, Pakistan has helped capture Al Qaeda operatives etc, it has lot the bargaining power with the US. Recent news has been that the US has begun to rely less and less on Pakistan and has built its own network inside Pakistan. Death of Bin Laden must have sent shivers down the spines of many Pakistani military personnel, including Mr Kayani. They now know that the CIA can track their protected assets independently. They tried their best to evict all “independent defense contractors” from Pakistan’s soil. May be Raymond Davis was a part of the sting operation to track Bin Laden or some senior operative under the protection of the ISI. I’d be curious to see how Pakistanis cover up the facts through acts of denials.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 
 

Bin Laden’s death is a game changer for the war in Af-Pak. Pakistan has a lot of explaining to do, given that Mr. Laden had been living in a mansion adjacent to a military academy & in an area which houses various buildings of the Pakistani army. If there was any doubt about Pakistan shielding terrorists, there’s none now. I also see that the Pakistani army is already trying to spin this the other way, with one of their spokesperson falsely claiming that this was a US-Pakistan joint operation. Pakistan had nothing to do with this operation & as Obama mentioned, Zardari was informed about it after it was completed. It will be interesting to see, how Pakistan is treated from now on.

Finally, as someone who knows quite a few people who lost loved one’s in the twin towers, this certainly brings closure. It’s unnatural to celebrate a death but this just seems right.

Posted by Mortal1 | Report as abusive
 

Pakistan simply can hand over Al Zawahiri and other Al Qaeda leaders under their protection and be done with it. Musharraf needs to be brought to a US court and sent to prison for cheating, lying, double dealing and costing the US tax payer billions of dollars. Musharraf must have arranged for Bin Laden to escape from Afghanistan and housed him at different places. Bin Laden might have moved into this mansion in 2005 itself according to some radio reports. Does Kayani still have eggs drooping from his face?

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

Here is more salt to rub on Pakistani military establishment:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnew s/asia/pakistan/8488236/WikiLeaks-Osama- bin-Laden-protected-by-Pakistani-securit y.html

They just lost their President Mr. Bin Laden. They need to replace him with Al Jawahiri. Or would it be Dawood Ibrahim?

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

And here are the real Pakistanis:

http://www.dawn.com/2011/05/02/hundreds- join-first-pakistan-rally-to-honour-bin- laden.html

What happened to all Pakistanis on this blog? Things have gone dead silent suddenly!

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

KPSingh
Are you feeling lonely without me already?
I told you weeks ago that relationships are shifting and I only watch and observe.
I’m busy getting ready for my vacation leaving next week and will be gone for a month. You can update me when I come back.

Posted by Matrixx | Report as abusive
 

A lot of fingers are being pointed at Pakistan now. In the last few hours, I saw senior US officials, lawmakers & military personnel say that they have no doubt that Pakistan was shielding Bin Laden. Pressure is really going to build on Pakistan from hereon. In many ways, this is the final crossroad for the Pakistani military establishment to choose sides. They simply won’t be allowed to play both sides from now on.

Posted by Mortal1 | Report as abusive
 

They simply won’t be allowed to play both sides from now on.

Posted by Mortal1
=

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-02  /pakistan-military-needs-to-explain-on- bin-laden-levin-says.html

Pakistan Military Needs to Explain on Bin Laden, Levin Says
By Laura Litvan – May 2, 2011 11:22 AM CT

Pakistan’s army and intelligence officials must explain whether they knew of Osama bin Laden’s whereabouts before he was killed in a U.S. mission, said Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin.

Levin, a Michigan Democrat, said Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari must question his own military and intelligence officials about whether they knew bin Laden was staying at a fortified villa near Islamabad.

“I hope that he will follow through and ask some very tough questions of his own military and his own intelligence,” Levin said at a news conference with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat. “They’ve got a lot of explaining to do.”

Posted by netizen | Report as abusive
 

Matrixx: “I’m busy getting ready for my vacation leaving next week and will be gone for a month. You can update me when I come back.”

Why? Do you not have access to internet and phone where you are going to hide? Sorry, I mean, “stay”? Just kidding.

Let me know how you ordinary Pakistanis are taking this tragic event in your country. He must be some hero of sorts for many of your people. Umair is already mourning. For all the nuclear capabilities and air defense systems in Pakistan, the US managed to sneak in a couple of helicopters, pay a visit to Bin Laden and leave with his body. And no Pakistani military personnel knew of this? And Zardari had to be interrupted during his night time activity by Obama and informed that Bin Laden unfortunately had to be killed.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

Mortal1: “They simply won’t be allowed to play both sides from now on.”

Pakistani military will not budge. So they will be made to play as two sides against each other. That will be the outcome.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

Now Pakistanis are spinning a new theory: They lured Bin Laden into this compound promising him safety so that Americans could hit him.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnew s/asia/pakistan/8488589/Whose-side-was-P akistan-on-in-this-shoot-out.html

If that is true, then they had access to him all along and knew where he was hiding before.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

KP,

With reference to the scenario mentioned in the telegraph article, there’s zero chance that Pakistan lured Bin Laden & handed him to the US on a platter. As numerous reports have confirmed, this was a 100% US operation with the help of US intelligence & the Pakistanis were deliberately kept in dark at every level due to obvious reasons. Pakistani authorities were not informed about the operation until the J-soc team had left Pakistan with Bin Laden’s dead body.
I suspect, we will hear many more such speculative nonsensical theories as the Pakistani propaganda machinery goes to work to clean up the mess that it’s in. But the cat is finally & completely out of the bag. They can’t hide now. In the coming days, you’ll see many more articles such as these:

http://on.msnbc.com/iTf7We

Posted by Mortal1 | Report as abusive
 

Mortal,
Whatever you say.

I predict Myra’s next piece is going to claim without ISI/PA help, Osama could not have been helped.

Umair is (probably) still dazed a little bit, once he recovers, you can expect him to indulge in chest thumping and claim Paks were involved.

Posted by netizen | Report as abusive
 

The disinformation campaign has already been launched by the ISI; see this:

http://www.dawn.com/2011/05/03/%e2%80%a2 helicopter-went-down-during-action-%e2%8 0%a2bin-laden%e2%80%99s-two-wives-childr en-in-custody-was-osama-killed-by-us-tro ops-or-his-own-guard.html

“Was Osama killed by US troops or his own guard?

Reports suggest that Bin Laden was shot dead with a single bullet to his head when he resisted capture, but an official indicated that the 54-year-old mastermind of the biggest and most devastating attack on US soil might have been killed by one of his own guards in line with his will to avert his capture.”

Posted by netizen | Report as abusive
 

“he 54-year-old mastermind of the biggest and most devastating attack on US soil might have been killed by one of his own guards in line with his will to avert his capture.”

The valiant hero was using a woman as his shield as they blew his brains out. The poor woman took the bullets and died in the bargain.

Osama is now the brand name of a famous fish food in the Arabian sea.
I look forward to the day when Al Zawahiri and Mullah Omar also become fish food. And I want to see the egg batter on Pakistani generals’ faces.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

“And I want to see the egg batter on Pakistani generals’ faces”

You won’t see any bigger & stinkier eggs than they currently have on their faces!

Posted by Mortal1 | Report as abusive
 

Wonder, where’s the mouthpiece of the Pakistani army these days! Maybe another trip to Kathmandu to chat up the cabbies there :)

Posted by Mortal1 | Report as abusive
 

I realise I sound like a conspiracy theorist, but the fact that no one has seen the body and they hurriedly buried him at sea sounds very fishy to me (pun not intended).

In a high-profile case like this, wouldn’t they take extra care to establish proof of identity before the world? Why the secrecy?

Regards,
Ganesh Prasad

Posted by prasadgc | Report as abusive
 

I was reading some Pakistani comments on this incident & it’s unbelievable how delusional, Pakistanis have become. Most of them seem to be certain that this is all just a staged drama to defame Pakistan & capture it’s nukes.

Posted by Mortal1 | Report as abusive
 

Ganesh,

I suspect, you will probably see some pictures of the dead body in a day or so. As far as the burial is concerned, various officials have said that the body was dumped in the sea because they did not want a burial site which could become a shrine where terrorists/extremists can rally.

Posted by Mortal1 | Report as abusive
 

I wonder if Pakistani citizens like Umair still think the army is the saviour of the country, or if they finally realise that the army has actually buried the country, one botched operation at a time.

With this latest evidence of treachery exposed, the money will dry up: http://abcn.ws/kLO49J

Regards,
Ganesh Prasad

Posted by prasadgc | Report as abusive
 

It has been two days since Bin Laden was killed. All I see is deafening silence from Pakistanis everywhere. Why are they taking it on themselves? They should realize that they too have the same desires to live well like others. All the blame goes to their military and the ISI. Let those criminals deal with the blame. And even ISI sympathizers are silent. I am yet to see an article on Bin Laden’s assassination from you-know-who, here.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

What will happen if Zardari or Gilani sacks Kayani and Shuja Pasha now? I see this as the only way for Pakistan to rehabilitate itself in the world’s eyes. PakMil must be exposed and put in its place, otherwise the whole country will pay the price for the ill-advised adventurism of a few.

Regards,
Ganesh Prasad

Posted by prasadgc | Report as abusive
 

What will happen if Zardari or Gilani sacks Kayani and Shuja Pasha now?
Regards,
Ganesh Prasad
=

GP,
You have a great sense of humour :-)

Only masters fire servants. You have the relationship mixed up here.

Umair would tell you Zardari is having his job b/o Kayani and should be thankful towards Kayani. Pardon me for speaking on behalf of Umair who is on vacation in Abbotabad.

Posted by netizen | Report as abusive
 

Zardari has already made a statement dictated by Kayani – “Pakistan did not participate in the hunt of Bin Laden.” If there was even an iota of information which said otherwise, one will find Kayani, Zardari and Geelani being flung far and wide in all directions towards the moon.

Right now they are laying low waiting for all noise to die down. Then they will do something to divert the attention away. Most probably they will “sacrifice” Al Zawahiri and hunt him down themselves. Or they will show the CIA where he has been “hiding” and participate in it. This way the Americans will go home happy and give a couple of billions to Kayani to buy his toys. And the whole thing will be diplomatically diffused.

We know how Pakistani system plays its game. They are planning on a diversion tactic as we speak. If they do not, they have a lot of explaining to do. Americans seized a lot of important material from Bin Laden’s hide out and that is going to open up more cans of worms.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

Guys
I would ask everyone to hold their horses for now, ok true it is correct that Obama had long stated that if there is a high value target inside Pakistan, and US has actionable intelligence and PAKMIL is unable or unwilling (keywords UNABLE or UNWILLING) to act then the US will conduct a unilateral action.

There can be two scenarios in my assessment, lets look at them one by one: before that a brief backgrounder under what backdrop this action took place. We know US-Pak relations were on a lowest point. ISI chief Gen. Pasha was at CIA HQ for face to face meetings, in mid-april. Who knows what was the topic of discussions. We also know the US domestic political compulsions, Obama’s ratings needed boost before his relection bid for 2nd term. We know an endgame is playing out in Afghanistan, no one should get excited. Remeber 9-11, days before Ahmed Shah Masud was assassinated mysteriously and we know what happened later. This action could be the calm before the storm, who knows what lies ahead. There can be only two scenarios here

1. This scenario entails US-Pak relations are at a crisis point, deep mistrust. Obama wanted to put even more pressure on Pakistan by conducting a raid on a high value target/ISI asset whatever u call, in the dead of night, in the heart of a military garrison, barely at arms length of Pakistan Military Academy. In this case, it was a tough call and blind shot, it may or may not get a high value target, as PLAN B US would fabricate some photos using sophisticated imaging technology and announce Bin Laden is dead. Who cares? I did not see any photo evidence, a body, a video? And if this is true, next time an American drone enters Pakistan’s airspace I am sure it will certainly be knocked down. In other words PAKMIL will be under clear orders to fcuk US. And Pak-US relations will further spiral downwards, CIA_ISI tussle would continue and this episode will turn out to be just one incident.

2. Scenario 2, US had confirm intelligence, carefully gathered an assault team, someone played their cards really well, picked up $25 million downpayment, gave a go ahead. A US military C-130 and four choppers entered quitely in the dark, was allowed access to Ghazi aviation base nearby, assemble and mount their operation. Pakistan disowns and dooes not take ownership of anything that took place, ISI helps, US NAVY SEALS get their man and leave. Who was the man? actual or not? that is also a question which is murky. Obama announces victory, hails Pakistan intelligence cooperation, asks for future cooperation. ISI addresses a longstanding demand of American counter-terrorism officials and finally delivers AQs no.1 instead of always the no.3 or 4. In return, Pakistan takes centeral role in Post-American Afghanistan. Suddenly also UK foreing office statement says Pakistan will continue to be an important partner in counter-terrorism. There is more to it, dig deeper and look further.

In the above two scenarios there can be any number of possibilities, but my own gut instincts says it is a continuation of dirty spy wars between CIA and ISI.

Peace is what everyone needs, Pakistan is not a threat to anyone, Islam too is a religion of peace. Whether it is a Pakistani taxi driver or American construction worker, everyone desrves to know the truth behind their government’s actions. Unfortunately in these type of situations, truth is the first casualty, in an atmosphere of rumour and guessing, truth is the first casualty. Lets see what we can make out of this?

(just to add few words, how about this, ISI dumped AQ for good made a deal with US on HQN, to give them a more visible role in Afghanistan. Taliban getting a role in post-American Afghanistan?? might possibly handed over OBL, if true Al-Zwahiri might already be on the verge of arrest. Someone is really playing their cards very smartly, and as a Pakistani you would want that to be ISI).

Posted by Umairpk | Report as abusive
 

Umairpk,

I understand that it is deeply embarrassing to you and fellow Pakistanis that Americans got in, took OBL out and went home, while no one in Pakistan’s mighty military system knew or did a thing about it. There are more questions than answers here – not so much towards the Americans, but towards Pakistan.

1. What was OBL doing inside Pakistan?
2. How come he was living in that place for close to 5 years based on what American intelligence is reporting?
3. How come he was inside this million dollar high security building? To everyone it appears as though he was being protected.
4. How come he was living in the middle of a military contonement?
5. ISI is a capable intelligence agency. Though we hate it, it definitely is capable of watching everything, at least inside Pakistan. And they did not know that OBL was inside this building, while the Americans made a better guess? It is a story that is not believable.

Body language is one that I watch. That tells more about the truth than anything stated. Pakistan went silent for at least 48 hours. It looked as though someone was caught in the middle of the act, red handed and did not know how to explain it.

The Americans now have a spy network inside Pakistan that is deep. And they may not need the ISI that much to carry out its tasks. This is the reason for all the recent friction between the CIA and ISI. This is because the Americans have realized that ISI has been double dealing. In fact they have said that they kept Pakistan in the dark during the operation because ISI could tip OBL off about the American raid. And it probably happened on other occasions and other targets as well.
By becoming independent of any reliance on Pakistan, the US now can carry out a lot more lethal missions inside Pakistan.

Americans will not blatantly state anything. But their silence will unnerve the Pakistani system. Pakistani administrators will now have to make guesses a lot more. If the US hits Mullah Omar or Zawahiri inside Pakistan, it would be even more embarrassing. I can tell that the ISI will be shuttling these “assets” into Haqqani land to prevent any further surprises of this kind. But Americans are watching every movement now, both on the ground and from above. You guys might as well pray to them.

I am happy for two things here – OBL was killed and Pakistan’s duplicity has been exposed. The guy was found inside Pakistan, and that too in a military enclave with heavy duty protection. There is no use pretending to be innocent. People are laughing at the excuses that Pakistanis are concocting.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

The world is getting tired of hearing that there might be rogue elements inside the ISI and Pak military that always offset efforts. And lies like the head of the establishment like ISI or military did not know that a mission was carried out by rogue elements and that they are the last ones to know. Denials need to stop. Pakistani system is rotten to the core. What we are hearing in the news are diplomatic statements made by Americans and the British. This means there is a lot more depth to their statements and they cannot make them very public for the obvious reasons. Behind closed doors, they are ready to kick Pakistani leaders in the rear end. It is time Pakistan openly gave up its evil activities. Or they are going to be fed to the fish as well.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

Read this. It is almost like watching a thriller movie.

I am sure one of these days they will make a Hollywood movie out of it (like Blackhawk down):

http://swampland.time.com/2011/05/03/cia -chief-breaks-silence-u-s-ruled-out-invo lving-pakistan-in-bin-laden-raid-early-o n/?hpt=T1

It is very clear what has been going on. Pakistani rumor mills have no validity of their claims. I remember Umair saying earlier that Bin Laden was dead long ago. Now the guy was found living comfortably inside a Pakistani military enclave, close to their military academy. People might be fools. But not that much foolish.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

Umair,

You have mentioned two scenarios above but conveniently forgot to mention the most likely scenario, which the whole world is talking about (except Pakistanis, perhaps).

Here it is: The top brass of your army & ISI were aware of Osama Bin Laden’s whereabouts, at least for the last 6 years (if not more) & they systematically hid him in plain sight in a military cantonment, where he can operate freely & yet be protected without suspicion from CIA & the US authorities. Over the last couple of years or so, the US decided that Pakistan can not be trusted in any way & created their own intelligence network, completely independent of ISI & other Pakistani authorities. They were getting closer on Bin Laden’s trail & this made Pakistani army/ISI very uncomfortable. They started a vicious propaganda campaign in order to thwart US efforts but were largely unsuccessful. Finally, the CIA was able to hunt down Bin Laden & conducted a successful operation deep inside Pakistan to eliminate him, while going to great lengths to keep it a secret from Pakistani officials, military personnel & spies.

Umair, your amy & ISI can spin this thing any way they want to & paint as many fictional scenarios but their duplicity & treachery has been exposed for good.

Posted by Mortal1 | Report as abusive
 

I think what Umair is saying is what the Pak foereign secretary also mentioned yesterday in an interview, “Osama is history, I sincerely request everyone to now look ahead.”

Before him it was Mush in another interview when asked whether he was surprised that OBL was in Attobabad. His answer typicl Mush overspeak, “Well, I wouldn’t like to go into that, because there are many other factors involved, there are hard core militants and terrorists from all over India, Kashmir, Pakistan, Afghanistan etc which are assembling……anyway I think I have already spoken for too long with you, thank you…”

In a nutshell what it really boils down to is that the line is going to be now on -forget what happened and why, thats the difficult part for us to talk about or explain and we probably cannot explain so lets raise dust elsewhere with scenarios 1, 2, 3 4 5….. and filibuster this thing out. No one will get to grips with the one question….how did OBL land up in Abbotabad and make a comfortable home with wives and children for anywhere from a few years to months and weeks?

Posted by DaraIndia | Report as abusive
 

Abbotabad not Attobabad.

Typical not typicl

Posted by DaraIndia | Report as abusive
 

Even Umair has come out of his vacation. Myra is still deeply mourning as a patriotic pakistani.

About Dara’s comments.

In the last about 10 years in the various blogs I have interacted with Paks, I have learnt how paks dismiss terrorism, terrorists.

Why should the world “move on”? The world should not “move on”, but demand answers. If answers are not coming US should cut off the aid. Let’s see if Chinese masters are willing to foot the bill.

Posted by netizen | Report as abusive
 

If you watch Pak media, they quietly avoid talking about what was Bin Laden doing in Abbotabad. They have switched the gear to, “How dare the Americans abuse national sovereignty,” or “It is all American show and tell, no one knows for sure if it was Bin Laden or an American smear campaign against Pakistan to cover for themselves on the home front.” One of the commentators says that Obama has been working on a face saving exit from Afghanistan after a near certain American defeat. So the CIA staged Bin Laden at a suitable spot and Pak military and the ISI were part of the whole thing. This way, Obama can take credit and due to backlash fears, ISI and Pak military would go silent over the whole thing. He says that without Pak military’s permission, no American choppers could have come into Pakistan. And he mentions about the hurry with which Bin Laden’s body was buried in the sea. Basically he says it is all an eye wash that kills many birds with one stone for American politicians. He says Pakistan has been saying Bin Laden was dead long ago.

Pakistanis are world champions in lying and spinning imaginative stories.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

netizen: “Myra is still deeply mourning as a patriotic pakistani.”

I see that too. Usually I have seen on occasions like these, I’d see more than one posting from these esteemed authors. Now all I see is a deafening silence. May be they are working on how to present Pak military’s version of the whole thing. It would be called Pakistani perspective by talking to key personnel in the defense establishment and circles of influential people. Or a new article will appear about Pakistan’s summer harvest. It will be written such that it will make you wonder if yesterday really existed or not. Pinch yourself once :-)

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

CIA “Choreographing” Osama Assassination Hoax

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xC7C322M Rc&feature=share

If anyone thinks this so simple, I would say you are a stupid. And Myra is more intelligent than you idiots, why would she write when the evidence is still emerging, couple of more days after the whole story comes out. And this is already turning out murky. Lots of fingers being raised, questions been asked, so far the evidence is not convincing that Osama was found and killed there. Also US NAVY seals shot him even when he was unarmed, why did they not arrest him alive, remove him extradite to US and put him to trial?

Posted by Umairpk | Report as abusive
 

And Myra is more intelligent than you idiots, why would she write when the evidence is still emerging
Posted by Umairpk
==

Actually Myra is more Pakistani than you :-)

I see a future…and visualize several green color volumes of In Defence of Pakistan- My Motherland, Collected Works of Nishan-e-Pakistan Myra McDonald on the bookshelves of Umair :-)

About “emerging evidence”, please tell us you are feverishly working on cooking up stupid stories, and conspiracy theories. The truth is (once again) you hvae been caught with your pants down.

Posted by netizen | Report as abusive
 

Umair, for the rest for non-Pakistanis, it IS as simple as it seems & there’s more than enough circumstantial evidence to implicate your army, ISI & the Pakistani state. You smart Pakistanis can keep working on your conspiracy theories & fictional evidence.

Just last week, Umair’s man-crush, Kayani, stood a few hundred feet from the most wanted terrorist in the world & gave a speech about how “the Pakistani army had broken the backs of terrorists”. I don’t know whether that’s comical or pure evil.

Posted by Mortal1 | Report as abusive
 

@Umair: So, you believe well known conspiracy theorists like Alex Jones (who no one takes seriously) & Hamid Gul, over your own President, Prime Minister, Foreign Minister, top army officials & ISI officials? All of them have confirmed that OBL is dead.

Posted by Mortal1 | Report as abusive
 

The best thing Pakistan can do now is to hand over the remaining Al Qaeda and Taliban leaders it has been protecting to the US and walk off free. Otherwise they will be looked at as partnering with criminals.

The US is not going to disband Pakistan. It would be a foolish move on their part if they did. It is not easy to build relations once they are broken. They would not want Pakistan to join Iran against them. That is much more important than this war on terror. Losing Pakistan now means China gets the upper hand in the region. So Pakistan is still safe and will not face any wrath from the Americans. Therefore there is enough chance to come clean by surrendering all “assets” and get moving. Economic development should be the goal and military strategies are not the need of the hour.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

What a day it was for us Indians, we were shouting from the roottops that Pakistani state was making America and rest of the world an ass regarding their war on terror.

As KP pointed out, the body language says it all, there is deafeaning silence for last 48 hours and Pakistan is in a horrible scenario caught with its pants down. The place where OBL was hiding was perhaps the most embarassing moments after the 1971 war or is it?

Regularly these establishment officials have made ass out of themselves in kargil, 9/11 , mumbai attacks and now. Now a patriotic pakistani is left with the binary option of either accepting the truth that their state is virtually.. no literally a rogue terrorist state or continue in his delusions that this is again a conspiracy hatched by zionist-crusader-hindoo nexus.

I felt pity for the renowned and seasoned journalists who were at other times best to their arguments looking like fools when they were saying that the Army might not know that OBL was hiding in Army contonement.

If the dead guy was not Osama then why would the Pakistani state not claim otherwise! They should probably given an official statement that it is not osama as proclaimed and refute the american position strongly.

The real sin is not of the callgirls who either out of compulsion or lack of choice or habituated to immoral professions, but the sin is of the Pimps who nurture them,feed them and throw them to the streets to be exploited. Pakistan is such Pimp (sorry for all the harshness but the country gave the world real real pain all these years) which shows unparalleled moral brinkmanship to remain relevant vis-a-vis its arch enemy.

But I fear that for all the incidence of pak’s double game, Pakistan is still indispensasble simply because it has enough leverage through these terrorist groups that any afghan stability will only be chimera without pakistani’s change in strategic locus.
PS: well the Dawood Ibrahim,Hafiz sayeed and Mahmood azhar might be in some military contonment and we dont need to be surprised at that. The day is not far when the extremists are going to rape the core pakistani state (the establishment) just as they are now raping the common man.

Posted by sensiblepatriot | Report as abusive
 

The financier and marketing guy of the pimps is generally a China man. This guy is seen supporting dictatorial regimes or rogue states and performs an awesome magic of vanishing when these states turn democratic (like Libya) or when the Pimps ask them to help them in their war.

Posted by sensiblepatriot | Report as abusive
 

Now Afghanistan is spilling the truth as well.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/05/world/ asia/05afghanistan.html?hpw

They are saying what I have been saying – US has waged a war on the wrong country. The real villain is the country to the East of Afghanistan.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

“They are saying what I have been saying – US has waged a war on the wrong country. The real villain is the country to the East of Afghanistan.”

Afghanistan officials, including Karzai, have been saying this for a really long time. Just as India has been doing the same. Pakistani Generals, with their short sightedness & suicidal ways, are making Indians & Afghans look so good right now.

The US media is really on Pakistan’s case right now. Every time I turn on a news channel, someone or the other is criticizing Pakistan or talking about cutting off aid to it. Surprisingly, I have not seen one Pakistani official yet, except good ole’ Mushy of course, who’s been on every channel to make a case for Pakistan. He actually seems to be doing more damage than damage control.

Posted by Mortal1 | Report as abusive
 

sensiblepatriot wrote:
“Pakistan is such Pimp”

-And that who wrote (sensiblepatriot) is a b@stard Indian pig. shut up and leave Pakistan alone.

Posted by Umairpk | Report as abusive
 
 

“A Defense of Pakistan”

Very shallow article. No matter how much Pakistan can try, it was caught red handed with its pants down. Explanations of all kinds will emerge, of course. At the end of it, Bin Laden has been done away with. We do not know how many Pakistanis idolize him and how many in its military do the same.

Like that author says, calling Pakistani an enemy and going to war with it etc are foolish ideas. Bt Americans are known for doing foolish things – like making an alliance with Pakistan of all countries to fight terrorism, spawned by Pakistan.

Obama is a very intelligent and sensible man. He is trying to wind down the war in Afghanistan. He has already close the mission in Iraq. With Bin Laden’s transformation into fish food, it is only a matter of time before the lesser evil are rounded up and fed to the same fish. Bin Laden’s killing in Pakistan will help exert pressure on Pakistan to give up its assets. Obama is not going to wind down the operation without completing the mission. It is in the interest of Pakistan to give up its terrorist assets and start on a clean slate. There is going to be no more chances to groom the dogs for a future engagement with India. The US will try to weaken Pakistan’s military for sure.

Imagine this – if Pakistanis had no idea Bin Laden was staying in their country close to the capital for five or more years, where is the guarantee that militants are not near their nukes? Will there be another episode of embarrassment and surprise when militants walk in and take away the nukes? Pakistan has completely lost its credibility in the outside world. No one wants to accept any of their claims. All the duplicity is obvious to everyone except Pakistanis. Pride is good. But it should not blind people. Accept that your country has committed its mistakes and has made wrong choice. Excuses will not work.

The US will not punish Pakistan severely. What they have done now is bad enough – exposing their double dealing and duplicitous methods. Pakistan is still needed to complete the rest of the objective. Only it cannot call itself an ally in the forefront in the war on terrorism. Americans have slowly started doing things independently of Pakistan, wherever they can. That is why Pakistan appears very irritated. It has lost all its advantages and leverage in pushing the Afghanistan solution in its favor. Now Americans have a solution for Afghanistan and that involves setting things right in Pakistan. They will. They have a lot of explaining to do at home to their citizens.

All that Pakistanis can do now is to stay quiet and wait for time to settle the dust. Look at Myra and others. They are doing the same thing. Shock has hit Pakistanis and their sympathizers deep and hard. Use this occasion to correct your system and come out of the warped mindset.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 
 

Pakistan reacts angrily to tone of U.S. questions

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapc f/05/04/us.pakistan.relations/index.html  ?hpt=T2

Posted by Umairpk | Report as abusive
 

Just read the defense of Pakistan article. So tell me, if an Indian tourist had rented the same mansion, just for two days, how long would it have been before the ISI unearthed a dreaded and most wanted RAW agent and had him locked up and thrown away the key? My guess is about 45 minutes.

Posted by DaraIndia | Report as abusive
 

Just read how angry Pakistani’s are. At their own government for sure. If Imran Khan has this to say, what more do you want to know about Pakistani culpability. Remember he organised protests two weeks ago to block supply routes to Afghanistan. He is no friend of the US.

“”This is the biggest disaster for Pakistan,” onetime cricket champion-turned-politician Imran Khan said Wednesday. Khan, who now leads the nationalist Tehreek-e-Insaf party, told Pakistan’s Geo TV that people “are in a state of shock” over the raid.

“Why did the Pakistani army not act when they had the intelligence?” he asked. “No one believes the government, unfortunately.”

They have every reason to be angry – like the rest of the world.

Posted by DaraIndia | Report as abusive
 

DaraIndia said:

> Just read how angry Pakistani’s are. At their own government for sure.

They need to be angry at their military, not their civilian government that they’re so fond of despising. It’s the guys in the smart uniforms who are the real buffoons. All that’s missing from the Pakistani army uniform is the red nose. Everything they’ve done has consistently backfired on them. It looks like they can’t do anything right.

1965, 1971, Islamisation of the army, arming the Afghan mujaheddin, arming and supporting the Taliban, Kargil, Mumbai and now this. Every one of these ended up a fiasco. And to what effect on India? The LoC hasn’t budged since 1948, Kashmir is still part of India, and India is stronger than ever before. Heh.

Every one of these oh-so-smart-and-daring adventures has blown up in their faces. In the process, they have done enormous disservice to the country they are meant to protect. But it will be a cold day in hell before an average citizen like Umair will recognise the military not as patriots but as a bunch of reckless incompetents who are effectively traitors because of the damage they have done to their country. Zardari may take 10%, but Kayani and his predecessors have cost Pakistan 100%.

Regards,
Ganesh Prasad

Posted by prasadgc | Report as abusive
 

Umairpk posted: A Defense of Pakistan

There is only one thing I can readily believe here. I think the civilian government was really in the dark about this. The hiding of bin Laden was an army-ISI operation all the way, and I cannot imagine them taking civilians like Zardari and Gilani into confidence on this.

If he has the guts, Gilani should announce the sacking of Kayani and Shuja Pasha publicly and see what happens. It is the right moment to wrest control back from the army.

Regards,
Ganesh Prasad

Posted by prasadgc | Report as abusive
 

“Pakistan reacts angrily to tone of U.S. questions”

Posted by Umairpk

Sorry, but its not the tone on which Pakistanis are angry, its the question itself. Pakistan got caught red handed this time, and these questions will haunt you for time to come. I understand your brain is still struggling with you patriot heart, which do not want to trust a single evidence against PA, But I can’t believe you posted a Alex Jones video ?

Take a break, go to Murree on a vacation, and leave your lappy home, let the things cool down, if you keep reading this blog, soon you will be posting comments from world famous analysts like Feeqa Penchar, Meeda kil, Kaalu ustra, Billu mori and god knows who.

There is nothing which goes into Pakistan’s favor. Americans exposed “Men at their best”, and now everybody knows what they are best at.

Posted by punjabiyaar | Report as abusive
 

Two equally strange reactions here:

The US: In spite of overwhelming evidence of perfidy on the part of a supposed “ally”, the US still thinks it cannot afford to jettison the relationship. Sounds like a bad case of spousal abuse, where the victim just keeps taking it!

Pakistan: In spite of being caught red-handed and pants-down with their hands in the cookie jar (and any other metaphors you care to think of), the official and popular reaction both seem to be anger and outrage rather than embarrassment and contrition. Not a great strategy when the US is looking for a face-saving way to pardon the country and retain the relationship. Sounds like a suicidal maniac trying to cut their only lifeline.

Two opposing forces – an abused partner who refuses to break a relationship that sustains the abuser, and an idiotic abuser who tries their best to force the abused partner into breaking off. Whose bewildering irrationality will outlast the other’s?

Regards,
Ganesh Prasad

Posted by prasadgc | Report as abusive
 

“If he has the guts, Gilani should announce the sacking of Kayani and Shuja Pasha publicly and see what happens. It is the right moment to wrest control back from the army.”

–Ganesh Prasad

How about Pasha and Kayani offer to resign themselves, and Gilani rejects the offer (obviously). In this way they will send a message to world that they are taking moral responsibility as head of the department, ISI failed to gather intelligence on OBL living in their front yard and army failed to shoot American helicopters, so failed to secure the sovereignty of Pakistan . But only god knows why Pakistani are thumping their chest even on this event, Gilani said yesterday its not failure of Pakistani ISI only but failure of intelligence agencies of whole world. But he did not tell if Foreign Intelligence agencies were allowed to roam free in Pakistan and gather intelligence on OBL, If yes then why this Raymond Davis drama, if no, then why blame the world on this.

Posted by punjabiyaar | Report as abusive
 

punjabiyaar: “How about Pasha and Kayani offer to resign themselves, and Gilani rejects the offer (obviously). ”

In Pakistan they do it through coups and assassinations. Sticking to power is protection from assault. If Kayani resigns, he will have to move to London. Otherwise “brothers” will get him.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

@ Ganesh “They need to be angry at their military, not their civilian government that they’re so fond of despising. It’s the guys in the smart uniforms who are the real buffoons. All that’s missing from the Pakistani army uniform is the red nose. Everything they’ve done has consistently backfired on them. It looks like they can’t do anything right.”

The Army is part of the government and no amount of window dressing changes that. If Gillani, Zardari alone were the Govt they would have had the guts to tell the Army where to get off. Does anyopne believe that these two enjoy the unenviable task of having to answer all these questions and be the frontmen?

If the civilians in the governement had guts they would be calling the shots. I have no doubt that a sizeable portion of the general public in Pakistan has seen through the army game plan a long while ago. A glance at some of the english media newspapers makes me believe this. On every issue from the blasphemy law to sponsoring terror there is a lot of criticism of the government ways.

Posted by DaraIndia | Report as abusive
 

Pakistan has shifted focus now to violation of it sovereignty. No one seems to be talking about how Bin Laden was living comfortably in Pakistan. The Navy seals should have taken all remaining people in the building with them. Now that they are in Pakistan’s custody, they will be trained on what to tell the public. Osama’s daughter is supposed to have claimed that her father was taken first and gunned down, execution style. I understand there was not much time to think about further actions, the next mission should make sure no witnesses are left behind. It is unfortunate, but that’s what such missions have to do. When removing malignant cancer, good cells do get removed with it.

Pakistan should not talk about violating national sovereignty. It has violated other nations’ sovereignty on many occasions. Mumbai attacks were launched by the ISI and managed by it. And it led to the murder of many innocent people. All the proxy wars it has launched into India and Afghanistan are nothing but violating national sovereignty of other nations. They are getting paid for what they have done to others.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

Asking Kayani& Pasha to resign or expecting them to resign are all non-starters. No one got punished in 1971 for raping and indulging in genocide and surrendering with 90, 000 POWs.

What is more likely is PA/ISI will continue the same as much as they can. War is not conducted in old fashioned way these days. The war is already on. Paks will face more media warfare, financial squeezing and so on. Expect further internal anarchy, economic collapse inside Pakistan. This is not my wish. Neither am I saying others should wish. Just pointing out the reality.

You think Umair is an “ordniary citizen”? I hope you are not serious!

Posted by netizen | Report as abusive
 

“The US: In spite of overwhelming evidence of perfidy on the part of a supposed “ally”, the US still thinks it cannot afford to jettison the relationship.” Posted by prasadgc

The job in Af-Pak is not done yet. The US does not want to leave Afghanistan to a pack of wolves headed by the Pakistani army, only for that country to return to it’s pre-911 condition or probably much worse. Given the above, the US has two choices. The first one, is to diplomatically convince/coerce/pressurize/threaten Pakistan, to sincerely join the fight & the second one, is an open confrontation & war with Pakistan. I don’t think, the second one, is a viable option at this time at all & hence you see the first one being played out right now. You will not hear Obama or Hilary use tough language about Pakistan but behind the scenes, I can assure you, there are a lot of angry words being said to the Pakistani leaders (both military & civilian). The question right now is, after being humiliated & embarrassed in front of the world, which way will the Pakistani military, decide to go? Will it come to it’s senses & mend it’s ways OR continue with it’s suicidal tendencies? The answer to that question will determine the future course of action for the US. IMO, one thing that’s certain, is that Pakistan won’t be allowed to play it’s double game anymore. The patience of the US administration, lawmakers & most importantly, of the american people, has run out. I see a lot of anger towards Pakistan from all quarters.

Posted by Mortal1 | Report as abusive
 

Having said that it will be very foolish to let Pakistan slip.

In post 1971 in Simla, there was a proposal to demand Pakistan to sign on the dotted line to accept LOC as the internal border. India in the best position possible foolishly listened to ZAB’s pleadings for mercy and let him go. Look what happened.

Media warfare, relentless diplomatic and financial pressure should be heaped on Pakistan. It is also not realistic to assume only PA/ISI are responsible and ordinary paks are just victims. Totaly wrong, paks have a supremacist, entitlement mentality.

If you noticed most of the pak commentary is along the lines of:
1) Big deal, terrorism will continue
2) PA/ISI must have co-operated
3) Pak soverignty has been compromised
4) Warnings to America and India (behind the door begging to USA)

and so on.

Posted by netizen | Report as abusive
 

When you guys take a break from monkey dance, consider the following clue:
Why would Obama’s 2nd team rain stones on Obama’s Osama victory parade?
Later this month, I will give you my in depth analysis.

Posted by Matrixx | Report as abusive
 

Now the clowns are beginning to praise and pray for the world famous fish food:

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india  /Hurriyat-Conferences-Syed-Ali-Shah-Gee lani-calls-for-funeral-prayers-for-Osama -bin-Laden/articleshow/8169912.cms

This guy, by praising the monster, has shot himself in the foot and his cause. The US will get wind of this and soon he will be in their black list. After that he loses all his “world sympathy.” Adios!

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

“Later this month, I will give you my in depth analysis.”

Nobody cares! Your country has been proved as double dealing, duplicitous, and full of convincing liars. All the way from top to bottom, people are corrupt. Burn as much as you want. This is definitely a celebration for the rest of the world!

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

http://www.thehindu.com/news/internation al/article1993590.ece?homepage=true

And that tickles me instead of sending any shivers down the spine! The Americans will do it again and the clowns will be sending a warning to India. Here is a spin on the story for you guys – “RAW told Americans about Bin Laden’s guest house in Pakistan” LOL!

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

Here is more:

http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/ 2011/05/04/former-cia-officer-bruce-ried el-on-death-of-bin-laden/?hpt=Sbin

I wonder what happened to Myra. We are posting all this in an old articles of her. Nothing new has come out in the past one week. Usually one see two or three articles from her on sensitive topics of this kind. I am sure she is in a shock after what happened to her favorite country and its military. Or she is out on vacation. My sympathies either way.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

Pakistan’s lobbyists are on full swing at Washington:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42917213/ns/ world_news-death_of_bin_laden/

Personally speaking, I do not want any aid cut off to Pakistan. They can add more conditions to it, but aid must continue so that democracy can survive and the poor people there will get something for them from the aid.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

Kayani has come out from under the table finally and said:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/06/world/ asia/06react.html?_r=1&hp

“If you try another mission like this, I will warn once more! Be careful, we have nukes, we have terrorists hiding in places we do no know or care about, we have no money and you have your drones. If you ever did this again….. We will sob. Yes, we will”

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

And now the investigation has begun:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/05/world/ asia/05compound.html?hpw

The findings will be at the same level as that of Benazir’s assassination, and Mumbai attacks.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

And now Pakistan is holding on to the 11 witnesses.

http://www.smh.com.au/world/uspakistan-t ensions-increase-20110505-1eae6.html

Sorry guys! Sorry for a flurry of posts. I am just filling in for Myra and others.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

KP Singh said:

> Here is a spin on the story for you guys – “RAW told Americans about Bin Laden’s guest house in Pakistan” LOL!

You have demonstrated another difference between India and Pakistan.

In Pakistan, outrageous conspiracy theories are floated by people who probably even believe them, whereas you have just joked about what is probably true: http://bit.ly/iGfLYh

Regards,
Ganesh Prasad

Posted by prasadgc | Report as abusive
 

Personally speaking, I do not want any aid cut off to Pakistan.
Posted by KPSingh01

The “poor people” you are sympathizing are mourning the death of OBL and burning American flags.

You have no other alternative other than cutting aid. Other approaches have been tried.

Public international humiliation doesn’t work as you have seen from the posts of Matrixx and Umair.

Soon after Mumbai 2008, I posted here only complete internal collapse will bring PA to its knees. When the allied forces were on the outskirts of Berlin, it wasn’t like Hitler was writing remorseful aplogetic tomes.

Absolute ideological fanaticism will not cow down to just media warfare. I know some one is going to jump in and say I have “hatred in my heart”. I don’t. Such is the GRIM reality.

Posted by netizen | Report as abusive
 

netizen,

I agree with you that there are a bunch of bearded morons in Pakistan praying for OBL and others of that kind. I am not even thinking of them. I am talking about many voiceless, ordinary folks who are aplenty there. Always think of elderly, women and children. They need at least some trickle going towards them. Cutting off aid to Pakistan will in fact punish these people more than anyone else. The generals, contractors, businessmen, politicians and officials will not be affected by any sanctions. Many have one foot in London and one in Pakistan. Pakistan’s military is holding these ordinary people hostage. I’d hate to see starvation or famine in a neighboring country because of geo-politics. We should be compassionate to ordinary people, while we swish our swords at those who wield power and those who support them.

The US cannot and will not cut off aid to Pakistan until it settles Afghanistan. I have a hunch that the demise of OBL is not the end, but the beginning of a much more violent phase of this war. So far Pakistan has pretended to be an ally here. But in due course it is going to be drawn into a real battle with the US for the first time. And it is going to be very ugly. The US is going to get more adventuristic based on its success in this mission.

If they get wind of where some of the other Al Qaeda / Taliban elements are being kept by Pakistan, the US will boldly go after them here on. That seems to be the only way left for them. Relying on Pakistan has led to delay and frustration. But they need Pakistan until they complete their mission in Af-Pak. And they’d like to complete it quickly so that they can restrict Pakistan.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

Ganesh: “whereas you have just joked about what is probably true”

In Ahmed Rashid’s book, “Descent into chaos,” he mentions that Musharraf survived two assassination attempts because RAW tipped him off. Probably Musharraf changed his attitude towards India after that and worked on the Kashmir resolution with MM Singh.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

@KPSingh,
On further thoughts I think the first thing to cut is all military aid. I think the so called military aid- gadgets, helicopters- etc given by USA to “fight terrorists” should be cut.

It will be interesting to see how much China will chip in. My bet is none.

OBL execution is a rare success IMHO. Hard to replicate. What is more likely is media/ diplomatic and economic warfare. The other fgrim reality is internal anarchy is slowly acclerating with or without outside pressure.

Reasons are simple. Decades of war monegering, terrorim has resulted in complete absence of instituitions. Karachi is spinning out of control which causes a huge set back to the economy. The intense negative branding of the name “Pakistan” is brutal when it comes to developing business.

Saudis only use paks as pawns.

Posted by netizen | Report as abusive
 

Pakistan seems determined to cut ties with the US. Gilani blaming the whole world because Pakistan “did not know” about bin Laden’s hiding place, and Kayani’s demand that the US cut its military presence are both unlikely to mollify US outrage. I think they are headed for a showdown.

US aid will have to be cut in spite of the persistent feeling that Pakistani cooperation is essential for the war on terror, because the obvious belligerence of the Pakistanis will force the hand of Congress.

But the best part is yet to come. Once the US abandons Pakistan, Pakistanis will understand the extent of their isolation when China *fails* to step into the breach and help them out. The Chinese have issued statements urging the world to support Pakistan, but that’s what the Chinese always do – talk. Talk is cheap. I predict they will as usual fail to help Pakistan in any real way. Likewise Saudi Arabia. The US has much greater leverage with the Saudis and can ensure that the pressure is unabated.

And when China abandons them yet again in their hour of need, the awakening will occur. You can’t say it wasn’t the Pakistanis’ fault. They’ve brought it on themselves.

Regards,
Ganesh Prasad

Posted by prasadgc | Report as abusive
 

As an american tax payer, I would like to see all aid to Pakistan halted until the Pakistanis can prove that they are sincere in fighting terrorism. I don’t want to pay even a cent of my hard earned money to a country which is directly or indirectly responsible for the deaths of our soldiers & civilians AND which sponsors terrorism against it’s neighbors. I strongly support the proposal by my local congressman, Gary Ackerman & other lawmakers, to halt aid to Pakistan until it’s army & intelligence agency cuts off all ties with terror groups like LeT, Haqqanis etc. I understand the humanitarian aspect of the aid but I would rather have that money to other poor or poorer countries, who are not hostile towards us & who don’t hate us like the Pakistanis do.

Posted by Mortal1 | Report as abusive
 

Looks like, the pakistanis are putting our aid money to good use!

“Pakistan pays U.S. lobbyists to deny it helped bin Laden”

http://yhoo.it/mOt6HU

Some good introspection by Dawn’s Cyril Almedia

http://bit.ly/m7u1iV

Posted by Mortal1 | Report as abusive
 

Mortal:
“As an american tax payer, I would like to see all aid to Pakistan halted”

-You are speaking as an Indian because you are a naturalized American. US-Pakistan have a strategic alliance and both countries cannot survive without each other. YOU are a traitor to America, don’t call yourself an American. Even in American shoes you echo the Indians who always are on their toes to harm Pakistan. And you American taxpayers can’t even repay a single drop of blood of 3000 officers and men of Pakistan Army, ISI and 30000 civilians. Pakistan have been pushed to the brink, 10 years of war is enough. We have had it enough, and finally Pakistan Army has clarified if there is another raid, Pakistan will hit back.

http://www.ispr.gov.pk/front/main.asp?o= t-press_release&id=1736#pr_link1736

The world has played enough with the emotions of the people of Pakistan, a nation in mourning, lost 30000 citizens and 3000 of its brave soldiers in this war. Finally it is coming to an end. If the US continues with its current policies, it will find itself on a collision course with a nation of almost 200 million Muslims and a nuclear power.

Posted by Umairpk | Report as abusive
 

Umair,

If I’m an american traitor because I want the aid to your rogue country being cut off, than so are an overwhelming majority of americans, lawmakers as well as officials. Besides, I don’t need lessons of patriotism from someone who’s nothing more than a mouthpiece of his security establishment. Amazingly, you still have the audacity to talk the nonsense about “US-Pakistan strategic ties” after the terrorist who killed 3000 of our citizens, was found to be hiding in the bosom of your security establishment. Also, as much as I sympathize with the Pakistanis who have lost their lives due to terrorism, they were the victims of your army’s suicidal policies. So, if you want to point a finger at someone, point it at them but from a little bit that I know about you, you don’t have the moral courage to do that. So, just go & read some more belligerent press releases by the ISPR & soothe yourself.

Posted by Mortal1 | Report as abusive
 

Umair,

“If the US continues with its current policies, it will find itself on a collision course with a nation of almost 200 million Muslims and a nuclear power.”

As a long time visitor to this site and having read your opinions often, believe me, at the moment I sympsthise with you at a personal level. I wish you would take the trouble to re=read what you write, specially in anger, and I am sure you will realise just how insecure Pakistan itself is and your reactions reflect this only too well.

If Pakistan, with its ‘nearly’ 200 mn Muslims and a few hundred odd nuclear weapons is something that makes you feel invincible how do you think 300 mn Americans with 12,000 nuclear weapons feel about taking on your great country? Doesn’t your rhetoric sound a total unnecessary and idle boast even to you?

I sincerely wish that you’ll would at least now realise that what is needed is for some serious introspection and admitting that there is a need for a radical cpurse correction. This is not the time for Tarzan type yahooing, because it shows others just how insecure you are feeling and it tells others that Pakistan has learnt nothing and is bent on slowly following the path of chaos and self destruction it has set itself on. Its time to win friends not shoo them away.

Posted by DaraIndia | Report as abusive
 

Pakistan May Have Been Cheating on the U.S., but Don’t Expect the Marriage to End

Read more: http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2011/05  /04/pakistan-may-have-been-cheating-on- the-u-s-but-dont-expect-the-relationship -to-end/#ixzz1LZ6eFWZ9

Posted by Umairpk | Report as abusive
 

“Pakistan May Have Been Cheating on the U.S., but Don’t Expect the Marriage to End”

Good news for you ?

Posted by punjabiyar | Report as abusive
 

“Pakistan May Have Been Cheating on the U.S., but Don’t Expect the Marriage to End”

US-Pakistan relationship is very complicated. It is like a tangle where loosening the knot on one end causes another knot to tangle at some other random spot.

The US simply cannot do without Pakistan in this region.
It will be a geo-strategic suicide to go harsh on Pakistan.

The US lost a very strategic position in Iran in 1979. It may not change for decades.

Afghanistan has been a war zone for three decades and there is no semblance of any nation there to set up strategic infrastructure. It is prohibitively expensive to sustain such a system in that place.

Going after Pakistan head on will lead to losing all the advantages – drone bases, intelligence and supply routes. It is like relying on the Middle Eastern countries for oil. A lot things they do are not agreeable to the US. But they have to put up with it for a steady supply of oil.

Pakistan is extremely strategic for the US. So American policy makers will treat it like a boiling pot on bare hands. You can’t toss it, you can’t hold it. So you have to keep shuffling it on the hands.

OBL has been killed. That was one of the primary objectives of this war. One cannot set up a democratic government modeled after the West in Afghanistan. The US is now focused on softening up the terrorists hiding in Af-Pak so that they can weaken them and delay their onslaughts towards Americans. That’s all they can do. They are not going to cover for India’s targets who have safe haven inside Pakistan.

Though many of us say a lot things in anger, practical side of things indicate that Pak-US relationship will be like unwanted paint stuck to the rear end.

But the US can trigger civil wars and a splinter of Pakistan if it has no further use of it. So it is in Pakistan’s interest to keep sticking to the US, no matter how much they try. The moment the paint comes off, Pakistan will be severely damaged.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

I agree that the US needs Pakistan, at least until the troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. Confrontation & military action against Pakistan is not the answer but then rewarding Pakistan for it’s duplicity is also not the answer. Paying money to someone, who’s out to harm you, is simply ludicrous. IMO, if Pakistan does not change it’s ways, the US will uncomfortably, nudge along Pakistan until the withdrawal and after that, it will penalize Pakistan with economic sanctions & diplomatic isolation. And if there’s an attack on US soil, which can be traced to Pakistan then there could very well be a military action as well. I hope, it does not come to it but if Pakistan keeps harboring terrorists who want to hurt us, it very well could. (Watch for Umair to come out & chest thump about their nukes, now!)

Posted by Mortal1 | Report as abusive
 

One can clearly see a shift in US approach in Af-Pak after Obama became the President. Their effort is beginning to bear fruit. They have started reducing their intelligence reliance on Pakistan. Earlier the ISI controlled everything and the US relied on the ISI to get its targets hit. This made it difficult for the US because the ISI began to use the targets as bargaining chip to make its objectives thrust into the American plans. Bin Laden’s killing is a clear indication of getting away from that reliance. In fact for the past year, the US has strengthened its spy network inside Pakistan which is becoming independent of the ISI. This puts Pakistan in a very uncomfortable position. The US can track the assets that the ISI is trying to protect for its long term strategy in the region. The US has begun to clip all those assets down one by one and it is very agonizing to the ISI and the military. The US will simply keep be the mission at this scale – use its own network to penetrate and catch/kill militants on its list. It may or may not inform Pakistan about it. And it will deal with Pakistan only on the other matters – logistics of supplies through the Khyber pass, and exerting pressure to prevent any escapades towards India, Kashmir etc. They will leave Pakistan to deal with its own militants who are getting frustrated at not being able to do anything.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

They will leave Pakistan to deal with its own militants who are getting frustrated at not being able to do anything.
-

What do the militants want to do? For that matter what do the terrorists, and their masters- PA/ISI want to do anywhere? Anything constructive?

Only thing they are capable of promoting violence and anarchy, destruction. Inside Pakistan same story. PA has taken the country to ruins and will not let any one else (the civvies) rule and improve things either.

Posted by netizen | Report as abusive
 

Pakistan’s military needs to come to terms with the reality that it cannot go forward with war strategies and proxy war plans. They are desperately trying to twist the settlement in Afghanistan and push the war on terror towards a dead end.

It is time for peace and Pak military has to disband all the terrorist groups and rehabilitate the militants into mainstream. Driven by macho, they have taken their country towards the path of self destruction.

Posted by KPSingh01 | Report as abusive
 

IMO, going forward, the key to watch is, if Pakistani army starts a (genuine) military operation in North Waziristan. If they do, it would mean that they are ready to redeem themselves & drop the ambiguity regarding terrorism. If not, they are not ready to change.

Posted by Mortal1 | Report as abusive
 

With all the Mounting evidence that Pakistan is complicit in harbouring Osama, Many of us here are ignoring the drawdown of American troops in Afghanistan.While the duplicity of Pakistan is known all along, strategic policty decisions are seldom made on truth but are made usually on pragmatism and short term goals.There are two possibilities regarding the ongoing war in Afghanistan. One is that Americans would leave Afghanistan completely (with perhaps little or no security forces on the ground). Or they will remain in fortresses with only ceasefire on combat operations.
Let’s look at the two cases respectively.

1. If Americans are to leave Afghanistan completely (though less likely scenario of the two) and not unlike what they did in the past after the soviet withdrawl, the security establishment wont be too bothered about it. Most of the Aid that is given to pakistan anyway goes to buying Arms and funding terror groups that target India and not feed the teeming millions which KP thinks. The real pressure is from the Starvation of Economic assistance that pakistan gets from International funding agencies like IMF and World bank which the Americans can hold it (based on these lones will credit rating agencies set the level of default risk for a nation). But the complete absence of America in Afghan would amount to Taliban takeover and parellelly a resouce hungry chinese ingress into Afghanistan for its natural and mineral resources whose worth could be trillions of dollars. With Pakistan acting as a chinese client state and facilitator for chinese resouce exploitation in Afghanistan, the profits accrued by such friendship would be more than sufficient to supplement for the lost Aid and monetary support from Intenational funding agencies. It will also open the road for further interference in Cental Asian states through their proxy elements. Pakistan can also limit the influence of a regionally strong Iran with its sunni taliban proxies. It can then resume its terror activities against India to the delight of china,which always wants to keep India in low equilibrium and an exporter of resources for its finished good exports to India. This is the best scenario that Pakistani state is hoping for. This would also amount to Isolation of pakistan from west, more radicalisation of the youth and instability for the country. But it gives great moral success of their whisky-sipping generals of this policy and Pakistan state (establishment) wins this round. Pakistani citizens lose securty and econonomic prospects but We are not talking about pakistani citizens are we?

2.Now if Americans were to settle in Afghanistan (which is a more likely scenario), the Americans would desperately need the support of the Pakistani state for the cessation of hostilities against the American dugouts. The influence of Pakistan is more to create the destabilization of a perfectly good state rather than helping stabilization of its neighbour. The pakistan can play up the fears of the Chinese dominance in the region to the Americans and make them pay more Aid, diplomatic support for Loans from internation agencies and better image globally. The presense of American troops would push the Iran in defensive mode. The Pakistan can resume its terror acts against India knowing fully well that Americans with their supply lines from Pakistan cannot ignore them. This would also amount to Perennial war on pakistan on its Eastern front, more radicalisation of the youth and instability for the country. But it gives great moral success of their whisky-sipping generals of this policy and Pakistan state (establishment) wins this round case too. Pakistani citizens lose securty and econonomic prospects but We are not talking about pakistani citizens are we?

Posted by sensiblepatriot | Report as abusive
 

As for our Interests,My view is that we should continue to focus on Nation building be in economic growth or political reforms with the objective of Accountablility and transperancy(Indeed this decade would possibly be defining one at that for India) and continue to support Northern alliance against those Taliban bigots. whether Americans stay or leave, their influence will wane by the day and so we should open a geographical front with Iran to ensure energy supplies from Central Asia. It is increasingly evident that Afghanistan will once again be culturally broken into Pahstun and non-pashutun lands and we should support any regime which is tolerant and not anti-india. That should be our limited objectives towards Afghanistan.

Posted by sensiblepatriot | Report as abusive
 

I for one don’t believe America would ditch Pakistan, for After the Simmering protests in the Middle East, Pakistan remains the only country in large neighbourhood which can control its population and Even the ever stronger Saudi Arabia looks weaker with Shia revolts believed to be attempted in the Kingdom.

http://www.dawn.com/2011/05/08/smokers-c orner-not-my-faith-really.html
I always had great respect for Nadeem Paracha and a am a great fan of his writings. In the above article he clearly mentions why Pakistanis behave the way they do. Its almost like a routine formula based emotions that you receive from average pakistani, first delusions of grandeur-chest thumping – victimisation -hope- prophecy which follow with little analysis in their rantings. I assume we are lucky to have people like umair who are atleast a bit more analytical than pakistanis whom I encontered on other forums. I really was pained by the loss of Shoaibo on this forum. we were getting a 2 side perspective of things.

Guys, I Just have an off the topic Question to you guys, if not extremely private Can I know the age of people on this forum. My best guess was we were late 20′s and early 30′s. I am 29. I think umair is much younger though. Sorry for digressing if I am ..!

Posted by sensiblepatriot | Report as abusive
 

Sensiblepatriot said:

> Can I know the age of people on this forum.

As I mentioned once before on this forum, I was 8 years old during the 1971 war, so you can work out my age from that :-) .

Regards,
Ganesh Prasad

Posted by prasadgc | Report as abusive
 

The current USA administration with the clintonian crowd have committed a blunder in handling the intrusion into Pakistan territory in a shabby manner. Is this the way America treats its allies? Pakistan Govt. should have resigned and General Kyaniin my view has no right any longer to appear in the uniform of a chief. Shame on him and his senior commanders.

I could predict two alternative scenarios;

.The civilian and the military leaders have agreed in secret to keep a low key posture and to retaliate against the USA in a more dramatic and sinister manner than one can imagine,(let us recall the episode of the ruthless murder of French engineers in Karachi).

. The junior military officers would start a coup against the civilian Govt and the senior military commanders and throw out( not only reduce, all CIA functionaries and their staff which is spying on Pakistani Govt. and its citizens.

On the other hand the USA gives the impression to have acted with confidence and appear to know the calibre of the people they are dealing with. The next weeks and months could provide the outcome of the episode.

Rex Minor

Posted by pakistan | Report as abusive
 

The current USA administration with the clintonian crowd have committed a blunder in handling the intrusion into Pakistan territory in a shabby manner. Is this the way America treats its allies? Pakistan Govt. should have resigned and General Kyaniin my view has no right any longer to appear in the uniform of a chief. Shame on him and his senior commanders.

I could predict two alternative scenarios;

.The civilian and the military leaders have agreed in secret to keep a low key posture and to retaliate against the USA in a more dramatic and sinister manner than one can imagine,(let us recall the episode of the ruthless murder of French engineers in Karachi).

. The junior military officers would start a coup against the civilian Govt and the senior military commanders and throw out( not only reduce, all CIA functionaries and their staff which is spying on Pakistani Govt. and its citizens.

On the other hand the USA gives the impression to have acted with confidence and appear to know the calibre of the people they are dealing with. The next weeks and months could provide the outcome of the episode.

Rex Minor

Posted by pakistan | Report as abusive
 

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