Comments on: In Pakistan, bewilderment Perspectives on Pakistan Thu, 01 Oct 2015 19:31:05 +0000 hourly 1 By: kEiThZ Wed, 18 May 2011 21:57:13 +0000 Keith,

I have a few brief questions and would appreciate if you answer:

1. What is your position on Kashmir, do you think that dispute with India causes all the strategic depth/nurture terrorists argument against Pakistan’s security establishment? Do you think resolution of disputes with India will make Pakistan a better country?

2. What is your position on India, do you agree they are Pakistan’s enemy no. 1 posing an existential threat?

3. Given CIA’s clandestine network, its adversareial relations with ISi, is it true there is an outside hand in destabilizing Pakistan? To put it bluntly, is CIA working against Pakistan?

4. Despite all of Pakistan efforts, if the war is lost in Afghanistan, will Pakistan be punished? If yes in what way (diplomatic isolation, sanctions etc.) ?

5. Lets suppose Pakistan gives up its strategic depth/harboring terror/double game policy etc. Pakistan accepts all demands placed on it. In return will the US and west force India to settle Kashmir dispute?



Apologies for a delayed response. But here’s my take

1) Kashmir is for Pakistan, India and Kashmir to sort out. The rest of us really don’t care. We only worry about it because there’s the faint possibility that the dust from a mushroom cloud might come our way.

I really don’t think, however, that militancy in Pakistan is caused solely by Kashmir and/or that it will be solved if Kashmir is solved. We’ve seen Kashmiri Jihadists increasingly become associated with the global Jihadist movement. If they are already branching out, why would they suddenly close up shop if Kashmir is solved.

2) From everything I have seen in my career, I do not believe that India is an existential threat to Pakistan…ANY MORE. In the past, maybe. But then, the situation of having a country divided, with a large adversary in between was always tenuous at best.

Pakistanis are free to believe what they want. But I (and most analysts around the world) are hard-pressed to see what benefit would accrue to India from Pakistan becoming unstable or collapsing. If you have any ideas, I’d like to hear them. I have to come across any hypothetical scenario where India gains on its security from a fractured Pakistan. They simply end up trading one threat (the PA) for another (fanatic anti-India jihadis). If you think differently, articulate it for us.

3) Same as 2. I’m not going to discuss conspiracy theories with you. I generally don’t like getting my blood pressure up by talking to the insane. All I will suggest is that there is no logic and zero security gains to be made by anyone from an unstable Pakistan. Forget unstable. Even left to their own devices while stable and semi-prosperous, Pakistanis can cause global security headaches (AQ Khan network). I can only imagine the arms bazaar that Pakistan’s generals will run if the country becomes unstable. This is not in anybody’s interest.

4) Yes. I’m sorry, but Pakistan just has not done enough. Yes, Pakistan has had thousands of soldiers die. But at least some of that blood is on the hands of Pakistanis who have chosen to shelter and support those who would kill innocents in the West, in India, in Afghanistan and even in Pakistan. Unless Pakistan comes fully clean post-Afghanistan, I cannot foresee anything but isolation. Once the world is not being held hostage by supply lines running through Pakistan, there will be very little leverage for Pakistanis to get out of truly being held accountable. At that point, it will be decision time. Make your bed with killers and you will be isolated.

5) How can the US and the West force India to “solve” Kashmir? We really have no real leverage over India. It is however, in the interest of the West to encourage India to settle the Kashmir dispute. And I would actually suggest that it is also in India’s long-term interests to solve this problem.

More broadly, I don’t see why Afghanistan should be tied to Kashmir. Is a stable Afghanistan not in Pakistan’s interest too?

But on Kashmir itself. “Solving” this is going to be quite hard. Everyone loves to bring up the UN resolution. Most don’t know what it says. It requires full withdrawal of all Pakistani forces from Kashmir (and that’s AK and Gilgit-Baltistan). It’s also debateable as to how valid a plebiscite would be today given that both sides have seen significant demographic changes. The Pakistani portions have seen huge influxes of non-Kashmiris from other parts of Pakistan. And the Indian side has seen an exodus of groups like the Pandits and other minorities because of violence against them. Would Pakistan agree to a full military withdrawal in accordance with the UNSCR? And would both sides agree to a plebiscite only applying to the original inhabitants of the region (and/or their descendants)?

And what about if the Kashmiris just want independence? What if they don’t want India or Pakistan? Are both countries willing to honour their wishes in such a scenario (which is certainly a possible outcome)?

So when you say that you want the West and the USA to compel India to “solve” Kashmir, you can understand that the situation is quite complex and the West would much rather that Indians, Pakistanis and Kashmiris work it out themselves.

By: pakistan Tue, 17 May 2011 16:00:31 +0000 before the indian bloggers use this space to discuss their domestic social security issues, reuters has a separate blog fo the indian issues, let me suggest to pakistani leaders that they stop displaying medals on the chest from now on.
being a strategic partner of usa means nothing more than being colonised by the imperialist usa. no other country in the world would allow their infra struczure for use by foreign convoys without any toll and custom duty. pakistan current civilian govt. is made up of incompups!

Rex Minor

By: lillian_g Sun, 15 May 2011 19:39:08 +0000 If you went to an extraterrestrial planet and saw this going on, would you land?

By: DaraIndia Sat, 14 May 2011 13:49:13 +0000 Sensiblepatriot,

Appreciate your simplified explanation which I think I understood! But it has helped in my understanding of the theory. Maybe it is old hat to the others but I have learnt something.

I understand zilch of all these theories, except superficially. My perspective is from what I see around me and my limited experience. With that yardstick, I would say India to-day is in the second stage of this growth theory. Many see this young able bodied and educated youth as a spur to better performance, which is right.

I do have one major worry about the future, specially when it comes to a country like India or any other specially in this part of the world. Before we know it, this youth will be middle aged and retired. Because we have no forward looking social security network in our countries, when we get to the final phase, these same people who were considered assets will be treated as liabilities. In fact a few years ago when Chidambram was the finance minister there was talk going around that pensions should be only till 75 years. I think this is going to be our undoing in a few years time, likewise for China.

We have to plan now and prepare for when we have this huge elderly bulge in our population. What baffles me is that none of our so called intellectuals and analysts even vaguely touches on this. It is almost as if throwing up of hands and saying nothing to be done, just let them rot in their old age.

By: Mortal1 Fri, 13 May 2011 18:36:30 +0000 Re: Population growth

I’ve been on this blog for a couple of years & I’ve seen Umair go from “we’re a proud nation of 150 million muslims with nukes” TO “we’re a proud nation of 200 million muslims with nukes”. Now that’s some growth, keep it up Pakistan 😉

By: sensiblepatriot Fri, 13 May 2011 18:20:47 +0000 I Thank Rex for reminding the question of population growth. As Ganesh pointed out, there is little point in reasoning with this Guy, who thinks We bloggers are CIA agents, wish I were.. atleast I might have had a good spooky proud job of acting as spy blogger to defend what is zionist-christina-Hindu conspiracy to defame pakistan rather than just bloody code developer. Can’t stop laughing at that when I read.

And “langley ..” what? A system that processes zetabytes of information that is generated everyday! I had a bad day at office today but you made my day. :-)

But Seriously the Question of population growth is a serious issue which should be dealt with seriously, first by understanding it.
After the failure of Malthusian theory that we cannot feed a growing population and which had to wait for catastrophic consequences (obviously his IQ did not support the idea of innovation and science), the new economic theory states that population growth has three phases in a decently forward looking progressing nation.

In the first phase, the population growth is slow as both death rates (owing to low expectancy and high fatality rate at birth) with high birth rates keep the population tab in control.

In the second phase when serious reforms take root, the population growth surges with better medical facilities which result in better life spans and improved child mortality and survivable rates. This is also the time when governments call it their youth bulge and will invest hugely in social sector aka, Education and infrastructure to support low end jobs owing to high population.

In the final phase population grows older as the youth bulge pushes itself into later part of the old age. The next generation with larger old populations to feed will have to invest excessive amount of GDP to their welfare and a desire for middle class families (and lower middle class) to lead better economic lifestyles will limit the number of children.Governments invest in higher education,innovation and better resource utilization. The populatin stabilizes with high percapita incomes.

Now the catch here is, while all the western societies transformed their populations as stated above. One doesn’t understand why they decry when India does the same thing! western People visiting in the forums fume at our population growth but never remember that it is our demand for good that is fuelling their exports. No, they wont remember that. Australia completely depends on chinese and Indian demand for raw materials.

They don’t remember that we are no longer dependent on their food and that we produce our own food and export in large quantities. No they wont remember it.

They need us to fuel their Industrial demand but ostracise us when we become competetive to them (more so in hitech sectors).

Their own economists say that we are in the same phase that American baby boomer generation was in 50’s and will in all possibilities follow their phenomenon. And the most important issue during this transition phase is whether we are growing with the speed we need to grow to create enough job oppurtunities. Economists say that during this second phase (baby boomer) a country should atleast grow 3 times as fast as population growth for atleast a generation say 30 years. If India’s populaton growth rate is 1.5 percent (I adjusted to higer possible range) we should atleast grow 4.5 percent, well have they noticed we are growing double that 4.5 percent.

In retrospective, pakistan with arount 2 percent of population growth rate, is growing at around 4 percent but should grow atlest 6 to 8 percent to create enough jobs for avoiding the pull of youth by extremists. Continued bombings in pakistan is the best statement to your politicians and establishment that you are not focussing enough on that and ther’s a blowback effect.
Infact lack of progessive attitude will result in perennially growing youth bulge and result in Malthusian nightmares.

By: pakistan Fri, 13 May 2011 16:11:33 +0000 @Myra
The most difficult task in intelligence professions is the CONNECTION OF DOTS. You do want us to believe that white house story is a genuine one and it was old Osama who got killed and thrown into the sea. For argument sake let us agree with the current President that Osama was unarmed and killed by the highly trained commandos. Now please recall the history of CIA failures in connecting the dots accurately and timely? The Sept. 11 terrorist attack could have very well been prevented!
Now guess how many members of the CIA, ISI and M16 are participating actively as bloggers in Reuers Blog? Not to mention Pakistan next door neighbouring country who along with the intelligence operatives have also sent in several PR propagandists to appear on this blog and to engage Pakistani bloggers?

I have not included the langley operation which is monitoring all the data live!!
It is all a matter of connecting the DOTS! Today’s intelligence networks are relativel y well advanced, but are slow in response on account of the mega data which computers and then humans have to sift through after which they are able to connect the dots. It is almost mission impossible and then slow.

Remember the cold war was won by the west because they were too many and became too good in the dots game versus their adversaries.

Rex Minor

By: prasadgc Fri, 13 May 2011 06:54:55 +0000 I thought we had agreed not to respond to this person.

Ganesh Prasad

By: 007XXX Fri, 13 May 2011 02:17:27 +0000 Amazing to see Indian population control figuring here in Pakistan article/blog and that too by a supposed German “muslim”. Height of bigotry.

BTW does this bigot know who in India is against strict implementation uniform civil code?? Or what is the proposed UCC in India?? The typical indication of bigotry is that bigots speak too much and display their extreme lack of knowledge.

By: netizen Fri, 13 May 2011 01:53:08 +0000 Rat? :-)

More like jihadi cockroach. Pestilence is visiting.