Comments on: Talking to the Taliban:an elusive peace in Afghanistan http://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/2012/01/04/talking-to-the-talibanan-elusive-peace-in-afghanistan/ Perspectives on Pakistan Thu, 01 Oct 2015 19:31:05 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.5 By: pakistan http://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/2012/01/04/talking-to-the-talibanan-elusive-peace-in-afghanistan/comment-page-1/#comment-40239 Fri, 20 Jan 2012 01:21:28 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/?p=8122#comment-40239 @True North
Good thinking and sensible forecast! In case the show does occur in the subcontinent contrary to your calculations, there will be no body around to prove your thesis wrong!

Rex Minor

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By: True.North. http://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/2012/01/04/talking-to-the-talibanan-elusive-peace-in-afghanistan/comment-page-1/#comment-40237 Thu, 19 Jan 2012 18:14:59 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/?p=8122#comment-40237 Umair,

WRT to Pakistan’s special weapons…once the Indians figure out how to put nukes on their subs, it’ll be game over for Pakistan’s attack-first ‘deterrence’.

Driven by concerns about the Chinese, the Indians will eventually field SSBNs that can launch ICBMs from anywhere. They need this to deter China.

Unfortunately for Pakistan, it will never be able to afford the SSNs to shadow the Indian SSBNs around the Indian Ocean. Ergo, once the Indians put SSBNs in the water, Pakistan will have no ability to launch a first strike that would cripple India’s nuclear capability. If indeed, it even does today (I don’t buy fancy demoes put on for the media).

And we all know nuclear weapons are kinda irrelevant. They’ll never be used. India isn’t going to violate Pakistan’s territorial integrity. They don’t have a reason to. And they don’t have to. The next terror attack in India that kills a few Westerners (because we all know that Jihadists are never just happy with killing Indians) or targets Western multi-nationals (or Indian multi-nationals with big Western contracts) will surely bring severe sanctions on Pakistan. The worst India would ever do, might be a few airstrikes. That won’t even come close to the threshold allowed for a nuclear retaliation.

So grow up a little and stop acting like an eight year old talking about nukes every third post. You’re just making yourself looking ignorant and immature.

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By: True.North. http://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/2012/01/04/talking-to-the-talibanan-elusive-peace-in-afghanistan/comment-page-1/#comment-40236 Thu, 19 Jan 2012 18:05:18 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/?p=8122#comment-40236 Excellent analysis. This is the danger in any sort of prolonged conflict. The younger members of society become more and more radicalized. Sooner or later, the Afghan conflict will become more about Al Qaeda than about the Taliban. If that happens, this would be bad not just for the Taliban, the West, and Afghanistan but also for Pakistan, since they have no real control over Al Qaeda.

I suspect this is why there’s some newfound urgency among the PA to settle Afghanistan. They may want a Taliban run Afghanistan next door. But they certainly don’t want an Al Qaeda run Afghanistan next door.

As for Balochistan. It is sadly (for the Balochis) not really significant because the Balochis will never really be able to achieve any significant scale in their insurgency. This is reality. When it comes to complains about Indian meddling, well nobody cares either. After the massive global headache that Pakistan has become, they’ve zero credibility on any complaints about foreign interference. As you sow, so you shall reap.

Lastly…Umair’s talk about nukes. Well, every 3rd grader always says his dad can beat up your dad. Doesn’t really mean much. Pakistan will have no excuse to nuke anybody over any internal conflict. And if they ever did, that would be the end of Pakistan. As enthusiastic as Umair maybe to embrace martyrdom, I somehow doubt the PA and the rest of Pakistan shares that sentiment.

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By: KPSingh01 http://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/2012/01/04/talking-to-the-talibanan-elusive-peace-in-afghanistan/comment-page-1/#comment-40216 Sun, 08 Jan 2012 19:47:21 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/?p=8122#comment-40216 sensiblepatriot,

Pakistan will never want a settlement in Kashmir. If that happened, they will lose the only grip they have to survive – keeping an enemy at all costs. So they will push Kashmir only up to certain extent. If India falls in the bargain, then they get to make a gain. This is something the US tried on the USSR and succeeded. But Pakistan is no US and a power at that.

In order to hold the grip, a country needs money and capacity for resources. India can cause a lot of irritation for Pakistan in Balochistan and elsewhere for as long as it takes. But it should just stop with that. If Pakistan falls in the bargain, then it is for everyone in the world to benefit. This is the reason why Pakistan is crying wolf about Indian presence in Afghanistan. That is the first thing they want to undo there once the Americans leave. Taliban is an essential force to destroy all foundations laid. But they do not realize that this time they will dig their own grave in the bargain. There is no money anymore for such operations. Logistics is a big factor in winning campaigns. That is one reason why even the US has been at the receiving end in Af-Pak. The logistical issue will haunt Pakistan military.

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By: KPSingh01 http://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/2012/01/04/talking-to-the-talibanan-elusive-peace-in-afghanistan/comment-page-1/#comment-40215 Sun, 08 Jan 2012 19:41:44 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/?p=8122#comment-40215 Umairpk: “India has no business to f*** around in Baluchistan, you do that and you get nuked, its simple.”

Pakistan has no business to f*ck around in Kashmir or Afghanistan. You do that. Or your back will be itching for a while. Keep licking your nukes. No one cares. The US demonstrated how spineless your military was and walked into Abbotabad and took out your priced asset. On top of that they fed him to the fish. Your nuke threats are causing laughter and nothing else. BTW do see the link I posted about Balochistan and see how much they love your Islamic paradise.

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By: sensiblepatriot http://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/2012/01/04/talking-to-the-talibanan-elusive-peace-in-afghanistan/comment-page-1/#comment-40214 Sun, 08 Jan 2012 11:40:18 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/?p=8122#comment-40214 KPSingh01:”The goal is not to divide Pakistan. From a strategic standpoint, it won’t offer long term solutions. The goal is to keep Pakistan engaged in Balochistan… and for rest of the post”.

Excellent! You just robbed my thoughts on this! Yes, history gives credence to the fact that Pakistan was not meddling in other’s affairs only when it is embroiled in its own internal insurgencies. We noticed that in the last decade after the US invasion of Afghanistan. The reason that Kashmir insurgency is at its lowest ebb is due to the fact that Pakistan was busy dousing the fires it lit up. Pakistani military tried to make it up with this vaccum throught Mumbai attacks, but they realized that stoking the fires back is a difficult task, moreso with a weakened economy.
India in its own capacity must do the déjà vu with regards to what Pakistan does in Kashmir. India must bring this issue to embarass the issue and internationalize as much as possible. The idea is to turn the issue of Kashmir as some sort of quid pro quo by India for Pakistan’s theatrics on Kashmir. The world community which largely ignores the Kashmir conflict as an insurgency manufactured by Pakistan will see the Baluchistan issue critically and it will either
1)Admonish Pakistan for its handling in Baluchistan.
2)Largely see it as a counter strategy to corner Pakistan on Baluchistan by India (as a quid pro quo strategy). And even if either of the cases play true, India’s interests would be served.

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By: Umairpk http://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/2012/01/04/talking-to-the-talibanan-elusive-peace-in-afghanistan/comment-page-1/#comment-40213 Sun, 08 Jan 2012 07:57:05 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/?p=8122#comment-40213 Pakistan’s strategic command tests special weapons in Baluchistan

http://www.terminalx.org/2012/01/exclusi ve-pakistans-strategic-command.html

“The highly sensitive tests were carried out on vessels for direct attack on Indian installations as an effective countermeasure to the increased threat from across the border.”

-KPSingh, India has no business to f*** around in Baluchistan, you do that and you get nuked, its simple.

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By: KPSingh01 http://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/2012/01/04/talking-to-the-talibanan-elusive-peace-in-afghanistan/comment-page-1/#comment-40212 Sun, 08 Jan 2012 04:07:11 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/?p=8122#comment-40212 Somehow Myra and other pro-Pakistan reporters have been very quiet on Balochistan.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opin ions/opinion/solve-the-pakistan-problem- by-redrawing-the-map/article2278388/

India is not the only desiring such an outcome for this region. Looks like there are thoughts brewing in the lands that do dominate the world. Without settling Pakistan, Afghanistan cannot be settled, Taliban or not. Global approach is the need of the hour. It seems to be happening.

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By: pakistan http://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/2012/01/04/talking-to-the-talibanan-elusive-peace-in-afghanistan/comment-page-1/#comment-40210 Sun, 08 Jan 2012 02:35:16 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/?p=8122#comment-40210 @sensiblepatriot
Do you realy believe that there is a Pashtun or a section of talibans to wave the white flag? If yes, then you have no knowledge about the Pashtun people!

A taliban who makes a compromise and shows weakness against the enemy must escape from his dwellings for his own family and relations, or tribesmen are going to kill him. Despite coming from the powerful Pashtun tribe, Mr Karzai has lost several members of his family on account of offering compromises.

Foreigners must leave is the cry of the Pashtun warriors throughout their history. They have taken now a new step to set up a foreign consulate in Qatar, for contacts with foreign Govts. and resolve issues of mutual intersts and concerns.

The USA has now been flattened in Afghanistan and it is in the American interest to stop further bleed of USA forces and to disengage in a manner so that all the valuable weaponry is retrieved from Afghanistan. Pakistan is currently no longer a reliable ally to guarantee safe passage through Pakistan territory. Pakistan military has also very close with the Chinese military who are now being briefed about the USA military equipment. Preliminary preparations are now being organised for the potential next conflict and possibly the 3rd ww? I should analyse more carefully Umair’s commentry to appreciate the current situation in Pakistanon. It is not easy but the info he provides is more genuine in my view than that published by columnists in the Indian, Pakistan and western media.

Rex Minor

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By: KPSingh01 http://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/2012/01/04/talking-to-the-talibanan-elusive-peace-in-afghanistan/comment-page-1/#comment-40208 Sat, 07 Jan 2012 17:18:12 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/pakistan/?p=8122#comment-40208 sensiblepatriot: “And Regards Baluchistan, The odds are in still in favour of Pakistan due both to Demography and Geography. Unlike Bangladesh, Baluchistan forms only about 4-5% of the total population of Pakistan and sparsely populated along half the landmass of Pakistan and (Baluchistan forms about 40-45% of total land mass.) ”

The goal is not to divide Pakistan. From a strategic standpoint, it won’t offer long term solutions. The goal is to keep Pakistan engaged in Balochistan. Continuous engagement will weaken an already weakened system. Pak military is desperately trying to recreate the Taliban resurgence because it can cut off its alleged influence of India in Balochistan. If Balochistan is kept as an irritant, it will keep Pak military fight a multi-pronged internal conflict. It won’t be able to repeat its actions it successfully executed in Kashmir before. That is why they are crying wolf about India’s “presence” in Afghanistan and the need to eliminate that entirely.

I think the Indian strategists have figured out that the only way to keep Pakistan engaged with itself and avoid a nuclear confrontation is to give them a taste of their own medicine. The Americans might have helped in this regard. The end result is obvious. Pakistan is burning. Only if Pakistanis realize that they cannot match India’s capacity and resources in sustaining small scale conflicts can they give up that pursuit. In the 1990s Pakistan definitely had an upper hand. If 9/11 had not happened, they might have succeeded in their mission. But lessons have been learned. The post American withdrawl strategy would be to keep Pakistan from balancing itself on its feet on a constant basis. A free Balochistan will not help in that regard. But a freedom struggle there will keep them engaged. They do not have much money and resources to keep up with internal conflicts. Do not worry. Mines have been set up to safeguard our interests. It is up to Pakistan to realize the situation and wave the white flag.

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