Pakistan: Now or Never?
Perspectives on Pakistan
Pakistan has agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on a $7.6 billion emergency loan to stave off a balance of payments crisis.
Shaukat Tarin, economic adviser to the prime minister, said the IMF had endorsed Pakistan’s own strategy to bring about structural adjustments. The agreement is expected to encourage other potential donors, who are gathering in Abu Dhabi on Monday for a “Friends of Pakistan” conference.
The government had long delayed announcing its plans to turn to the IMF for help and President Asif Ali Zardari said in September the country did not want to seek IMF assistance. Tarin said in October that going to the IMF was “Plan C” if other lenders failed to come through. “If we want to go to the IMF, we can … but only as a backup,” he said.
When the British left India in 1947, they bequeathed what was arguably a European notion of the nation state on a region for which the very concept was alien. I say ”arguably” because anything one writes about Partition or the nation state is open to dispute. And until the financial crisis, I relegated this argument to the realm of historians – a subject that interested me personally, but did not seem relevant today.
That was until I noticed a new debate bubbling up on the internet about the future of the nation state. Will it become more powerful as countries scramble to protect themselves from the financial crisis as George Friedman at Stratfor argues in this article? Or does the need for global solutions to the crisis sound a death knell for the nation state, as John Robb suggests here?
Pakistan’s economy has survived three wars with India and a long history of tension with its much bigger neighbour. But this time its own domestic economic and political problems, combined with tension on the border with Afghanistan, are running smack into a global financial crisis that will make it harder for its traditional allies to bail it out.
So is it time to break the taboos and ask: Does Pakistan’s best hope of economic recovery lie in making peace with India?