Pakistan: Now or Never?
Perspectives on Pakistan
from Afghan Journal:
Guest Column: Getting Obama’s Afghan policy back on track
(C. Uday Bhaskar is a New Delhi-based strategic analyst. The views expressed in the column are his own).
By C. Uday Bhaskar
The May 12 summit meeting in the White House between visiting Afghan President Hamid Karzai and his host, U.S. President Barack Obama comes against the backdrop of the mercifully aborted May 1 terrorist bombing incident in New York's Times Square.
From the barrage of news and commentary that floods various media outlets here in Washington DC, it is evident that the Obama Af-Pak policy unveiled with considerable fanfare last year will be in for detailed and contested policy review.
Immediate U.S. interests apart - including the Obama second term, the stakes for the long-term stability of the entire southern Asian region and the troubled Muslim populace in the scattered diaspora ranging from North America to west Europe are immense and complex.
Afghanistan came into global focus with the tragic enormity of September 11, 2001 when it was under the control of the Taliban and the obscurantist, anti-liberal ideology espoused by this group had earlier impacted India's security interests in the December 1999 aircraft hijacking episode.
from Afghan Journal:
Engaging the Afghan Taliban: a short history
(The niche that once held a giant Buddha, in Bamiyan. Picture by Omar Sobhani)
For those pushing for high-level political negotiations with the Afghan Taliban to bring to an end to the eight-year war, two U.S. scholars in separate pieces are suggesting a walk through recent history The United States has gone down the path of dialogue with the group before and suffered for it, believing against its own better judgement in the Taliban's promises until it ended up with the September 11, 2001 attacks, says Michael Rubin from the American Enterprise Institute in this article in Commentary.
Rubin, who is completing a history of U.S. engagement with rogue regimes, says unclassified U.S. State Department documents show that America opened talks with the Taliban soon after the group emerged as a powerful force in Kandahar in 1994 and well over a year before they took over Kabul. From then on it was a story of diplomats doing everything possible to remain engaged with the Taliban in the hope it would modify their behaviour, and that they would be persuaded to expel Osama bin Laden who had by then relocated from Sudan. The Taliban, on the other hand, in their meetings with U.S. diplomats, would stonewall on terrorism but would also dangle just enough hope to keep the officials calling and forestall punitive strategies.
Over a five year period of engagement, the United States gained little while the Taliban grew even more radicalised and the threat from al Qaeda more serious. Rubin details how State Department officials were repeatedly misled by Taliban officials harbouring bin Laden even after two U.S. embassies were attacked in Africa in 1998. They even told them they would protect the Buddha statues in Bamiyan which were subsequently destroyed.
"The Taliban had like many rogue regimes, acted in bad faith. They had engaged not to compromise, but to buy time. They had made many promises, but did not keep a single one. The Taliban refused to isolate, let alone, expel Bin Laden , and al Qaeda metastasized," says Rubin. The Sept 11 attacks were plotted at a time when U.S. engagement with the Taliban was in full swing.
Some of the logic and even the language used at the time is eerily similar to the current push for a political settlement with senior Taliban figures. There was a difference between al Qaeda and the Taliban and it was possible that the latter could be peeled away, U.S. officials and political commentators said at the time. Second, Pakistan with its close ties to the Taliban was a key player offering advice to Washington, as it seeks to at the present time.
India needs to accept that Pakistan did the right thing in helping US to throw the communists out of Afghanistan. Communism and socialism are more evil than all the fanatics of the world put together. We also need to accept that the US did the wrong thing in abandoning the Mujahideen fighters once the communists had been defeated.
Any normally moral and grateful country would have granted a life long pension to these honest brave fighters who had gone through a period of lot of personal sacrifices during the 10 year war.
Since the Afghan youth had learnt no other skills than fighting gorilla wars, and they had to do something for a living, they got transformed into the Taliban….
Pakistan of course cheated all the way. First it cheated the US by stealing a lot of supplies meant for the Afghan communist war to instigate insurgency in India, then it cheated by helping the Taliban to take over Afghanistan and now is again cheating by helping the US to fight the Taliban….I doubt if even Pakistan knows whose side it is on any particular day….
Afghanistan and Pakistan: on the battle for Kandahar
In the vast swirl of debate about Afghanistan and Pakistan, it is worth taking the time to read this piece in the Small Wars Journal by Michael Yon about the looming battle for Kandahar and the central importance of the Arghandab River Valley (pdf document).
Just as “a tiger doesn’t need to completely understand the jungle to survive, navigate, and then dominate”, Yon argues, you don’t have to master the full geographical and historical complexity of the Afghan war to grasp the importance of the Arghandab River Valley in securing Kandahar — a battle he suggests will be crucial in 2010.
Rather than do this very thoughtful piece the injustice of trying to summarise it, I’d recommend reading it in full.
We have got used to hearing that the United States will find it very difficult to succeed in Afghanistan without help from Pakistan in acting against militants based there — an argument given another airing in the latest New York Times story about Pakistan resisting U.S. demands to move against the Haqqani network in North Waziristan. What Yon’s piece does is to give a different perspective on that argument by suggesting the possibility of U.S. military successes on the ground in Afghanistan – almost independently of what happens in Pakistan.
The point here is not to discuss U.S. military strategy and tactics (many others are far better qualified to do so, among them Hershel Smith at the Captain’s Journal who has nearly daily entries on this).
But let’s assume for the purposes of argument that Pakistan does not drop its resistance to tackling Afghan militants in its border regions. (Pakistan argues it cannot tackle everyone at once and has its hands full fighting the Pakistani Taliban; its critics say it is hedging its bets ahead of any eventual U.S. withdrawal, when it might want to use groups like the Haqqani network and the Afghan Taliban to counter Indian influence in Afghanistan.)
At that point, a major U.S. military success in Afghanistan could be the only way to break the stalemate. An in that light, Yon’s focus on the Arghandab River Valley becomes essential reading.
@Myra,
If the mind actively generates perception, this raises the question whether the result has anything to do with the world, or if so, how much. To the extent that knowledge depends on the structure of the mind and not on the world, knowledge would have no connection to the world and is not even true representation. just a solipsistic or intersubjective fantasy. ( A quotation from Immanuel Kant, the metaphysic German Phisopher) . The PDF on Kandhar is typically a corporate oulined paper, provides details of the Pashtoon tribes and in the writers opinion ” how the south was lost” to Talibans, or how the talibans gained due to the shortfalls of ISAF. Why did’nt he contact Mullah Omar, who could have given him more accurate details about their strategy?
Jaish building new base in Pakistan’s south Punjab-report
Saeed Shah at McClatchy has an interesting story about Jaish-e-Mohammad, an al Qaeda linked militant group, building a big new base in Pakistan’s Punjab province.
The group, which was blamed for killing U.S. journalist Daniel Pearl and for an attack on the Indian parliament in 2001, already has a headquarters in the town of Bahawalpur in south Punjab.
But Shah writes that it has now walled off a big new compound outside the town. The new facility, he says, is surrounded by a high brick and mud wall, has a tiled swimming pool, stabling for more than a dozen horses, an ornamental fountain and even swings and a slide for children.
“There are jihadist inscriptions painted on the inside walls, including a proclamation that “Jaish-e-Mohammad will return”, alongside a picture of Delhi’s historic Red Fort, implying further terrorist attacks against the Indian capital,” he says.
It’s unclear what the new base is meant to be used for – Shah quotes Jaish and Pakistani officials as saying that the facility, which is still under construction, is simply a small farm to keep cattle.
What is clear is that many countries have an interest in what is happening with the Jaish-e-Mohammad.
The group was set up in 2000 after its founder, Maulana Masood Azhar, was released by India in return for the freeing of passengers aboard an Indian Airlines plane hijacked from Kathmandu to Kandahar in Afghanistan. While its focus was on fighting in Indian Kashmir, it had links to Afghanistan dating back to the militant campaign against the Soviet occupation. Shah says in his article that Jaish and other Punjab-based militant groups now recruit and train thousands of young men to fight western forces in Afghanistan.
Some really interesting stuff on JeM in this blog post and in the comments as well!http://www.icsr.info/blog/Bahawalpu rs-Real-Estate-Boom
Should the Afghans be talking to the Taliban?
Afghan President Hamid Karzai used a Sept 11 address last year to appeal to the Taliban to come for talks and end bloodshed in the war-torn nation.
The Taliban responded with even more attacks, turning 2008 into the bloodiest year yet since the U.S. led invasion seven years ago, and understandably Karzai who survived an assassination attempt this year has gone quiet on the talks offer.
But should Karzai, and especially his western-backers, be completely shutting the door on them, or should they be playing the field given that there does seem to be some level of sympathy for them among the local population?
I was in Kabul during the last two weeks and was struck by some Afghans talking about the positives during the Taliban years even as they were clearly ill-at-ease with the more brutal face of the regime.
Mohammad Nasim, a gardner at Kabul’s soccer stadium where the Taliban staged public executions, told me during an interview there were no bribes to be paid, and no running around government offices endlessly under the Taliban.
Bismillah-E-Rehman-E-Rahim, Sab Hindu bhaiyo ko bhi Ram-Ram,
Terrorists O Terrorists,
WHY DONT YOU LEAVE WE MOSLEMS PEACEFULLY WITH HINDUS TOGETHER. IF YOU HAVE PROBLEMS IN KASHMIR. SETTLE IT THERE. DONT COME HERE. YOUR BOMB BLASTS CREATE PANIC AND FEAR IN DELHI MOSLEMS.
HOW LONG HINDUS WILL BE PATIENT ? THEY ARE ALSO HUMANBEING. IF WE KILL A BUFFALO, EVEN HE TRIES TO ESCAPE AND FIGHT. IF HINDUS STARTED FIGHTING ALONGWITH POLICE AND ARMY THEN ?
FOR ALLAH’S SAKE, LEAVE US.
YOU EYE ABOUT HINDUSTAN, WE WILL LIKE TO SAY –
PAKISTAN TUMHARI MA*UT AAY*E..
HINDUSTAN KE DUSHMANO TUMHARI MA*UT AAY*E..
ANTAKWADIYO TUMHARI MA*UT AAY*E..
PYAR, BHAICHARA, SHANTI AUR ALLAH KE DUSHMANO TUMHARI MAU*T AAY*E..
insallah humari fatah aur hindustan ke dushmano ki shikast hogi !!!
Allah hafij
Julfikar Ali on behalf of all Delhi Muslims
Muzlis-E-Islam
New Delhi
Afghanistan: Kandahar by Humvee
Here’s a great story by Jon Hemming (pictured left), Reuters Chief Correspondent in Afghanistan, on a recent trip he made to Kandahar with U.S. troops:
KABUL (Reuters) – Intelligence reports said insurgents planned an ambush or might have planted an Improvised Explosive Device under the bridge west of Kandahar so a patrol was sent to check it out. “Probably bullshit,” said the U.S. major. “But we got to go take a look.”
That meant driving four armoured vehicles through the centre of Kandahar, the Taliban’s former de-facto capital in southern Afghanistan and still a city where insurgents take pot-shots at international troops or blow themselves up in suicide attacks.
Normally as a reporter driving around Kabul, I take great care to avoid being anywhere near a foreign military convoy as they are the Taliban’s favorite target. But when you’re inside a Humvee, the tables are turned and you can’t help looking on every taxi driver or motorcycle rider as a potential attacker who might try to take your life with his.
“Watch the guy on the right,” the major sitting in the front seat tells the top cover gunner through the intercom. A taxi driver who was about to pull onto the road quickly slams into reverse and backs up to demonstrate his lack of evil intent.
“That kid just gave me the finger,” says the TC (top cover gunner). “Asshole. I swear I’m gonna slot one of these kids one day.” Silence, then: “I got a bad feeling about today.”
Something hits the windscreen. “Was that a piece of shit someone threw?” asks the major. “Don’t know sir,” says the driver, in a dead-pan tone. “There’s still some stuck to the hood though if you’d care to take a closer look.”
Merhaba Jon! Ben Adil, Bakuden(Azerbaycandan).yeqinki beni unutmamisan?Iyiki seni buldum.Seni cok aradim,sonunda buldum .Bana mutlaka yaz.sevincinci@hotmail.com
Karzai’s hot pursuit of Pakistan
So which troops is Afghan President Hamid Karzai going to send to Pakistan to make good his threat to hunt Baitullah Mehsud and his men, and stop cross-border attacks? The Afghan National Army, the Afghan national police ? Aren’t they already too stretched trying to cope with the Taliban inside Afghanistan to worry about them across the border ?
Indeed Karzai spoke barely a couple of days after 1,150 prisoners, an estimated 400 of them militants, escaped Kandahar jail after it was stormed by the Taliban in what must be one of biggest jailbreaks, even by Afghan standards
It is hard to see how Karzai can extend his reach into Pakistan’s rugged frontier region when his writ barely runs in his country. Or was he speaking on behalf of someone else, the United States, for example, as journalist Rahimullah Yusufzai asks in this piece.
“One is sure President Karzai doesn’t mean to carry out his threat to send Afghan troops across the border to Pakistan,” he writes. “The only manner in which he can hope to do so is to convince the U.S. and its Nato allies to undertake such a mission in Pakistan and then order some of his Afghan soldiers to accompany the Western forces.”
At a time when America has increased the pressure on Pakistan by opposing its peace accords with Taliban militants and launching airstrikes in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan, such a gameplan, however dangerous, may not be impossible.
Taliban are now fighting positional wars with regular fronts in Khost and Kandahar regions.
The weapons to Taliban are being supplied, as per more and more intelligence reports, by the
Russian and even by Iranian sources. The contribution of Pakistani tribal areas in forging the
strategic outcome of the war in Afghanistan is less than 10% from every strategic and
military contribution. For all practical purposes, the war is an Afghan problem and is not
being controlled or decided from the Pakistani tribal regions.
But the Afghan and US game is simple –
• Blame Pakistan for all the sufferings and war in the country.
• Initiate a head-on collision between Pakistani State and Pakistani tribal militants.
• Create rift between armed forces of Pakistan and Pakistani society.
• Create environment for separation of tribal regions into an autonomous new country.
• And leading up to creation of enough chaos and anarchy in Pakistan to justify forced
removal of Pakistani nuke assets.
Frustrated by apparent defeat in Iraq, loss of public approval and support in Afghanistan and
failure to prove the campaign-fostered illusions that presence of NATO/US forces was aimed
at liberating the Afghans, the US and Mr. Karzai seek escape by blaming others for all the
ills.
Very systematically the local Taliban are infiltrated by the US assets led by Baitullah Mehsud
to create hatred against the government and armed forces of Pakistan resulting in many
attacks on law enforcement agencies. These US assets in the garb of “Taliban” have
succeeded to a great extent to create a divide between the local Taliban and the State.
US assets within Pakistani political parties and media have been mobilized to create
confusion among the Pakistani public about security situation and safety of nuclear program.
Under a well-planned strategy pressure is being built against nuclear weapons of Pakistan by
floating false propaganda.
The more sinister plan is being woven for turning Pakistani federation into confederation by
supporting the sub-nationalists in NWFP and Balochistan. The efforts for separating FATA is
already been initiated with bringing little known tribal leaders from FATA onboard. The
demand for a separate province consisting FATA is being tucked down the throats of these
unknown tribal leaders and press conferences and wide media coverage is being arranged for
publicizing this demand and smoothening public opinion.
Few months’ back a selected group of little known tribal leaders was reportedly facilitated a
trip to the US where they were assigned the task to promote the notion of separate province
of FATA.
Civil society organizations have also been activated to make grounds for demand for making
FATA a separate province. These NGOs funded by US and Western countries are constantly
arranging seminars and propagating the idea while at the same time formulating suggestions
for the same.
US have already committed pumping millions of dollars in for ‘development’ of FATA to be
utilized through non-government organizations to win minds and hearts resulting in gaining
local support.
The doctrine of greater provincial autonomy is also being promoted through the sub-
nationalists who are in the first phase demanding total control of resources (which means the
elements within provincial governments can blackmail and bypass the centre regarding
important strategic issues in the future) as well as doing away with the concurrent list which
will empower the sub-nationalists to post own trusted people on key posts who will in future
carry on the agenda.
Many eyebrows were raised when soon after Yousaf Raza Gillani taking oath as prime
minister announced abolishment of Frontier Crimes Regulations (40-FCR) without any
planning. The decision was criticized both by the tribesmen as well as intellectuals even it
was questioned by many quarters that on whose behest the prime minister announced such a
decision in haste.
The game is exposed and now it is time that Pakistan develops some serious response to the
challenge: Really, Pakistan needs to “do more” to check the sinister game plan against itself.
So let’s do more.
To start with Pakistan should immediately initiate three following steps:
1. Revive Pak-Afghan Jirga held in Kabul in August 2007 which had concluded with the
agreement that Pakistan and Afghanistan governments will initiate talks with Afghan
Taliban and bring them onboard the peace process. The process was abandoned later
on after strong US objections to the idea.
2. Fence/mine the border to check any unwanted crossings and infiltrations. Install
biometric system at border at selected crossings as being done in Chaman border
crossing in Baluchistan.
3. Pakistan needs to redefine its Afghan Policy, ideally declaring neutrality in the conflict
and offering to act as mediator between Afghan parties of conflict. Pakistan still does
not have a defined anti-terrorism policy either.
4. Pakistan should immediate debate and discuss the Afghan and anti-terror policies in
parliament and develop a national mandate through the political parties, elected
representatives and the cabinet.
5. A high power parliamentary or judicial commission should be constituted to know and
identify the causes, perpetrators, ideology, groups and militants behind the suicide
bombings in the country against State and people. The crisis is huge enough to demand
a public inquiry and expose of the phenomenon.
Reviving the jirga:
Last year in 2007, on the suggestion of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, a joint Pak-Afghan
Jirga – a commission for peace in the region was formed. The Pak-Afghan Jirga having full
backing of NATO and US engaged about 700 tribal leaders and other influential elders from
both sides held two meetings one each in both the countries. The meeting held in Kabul in
August 2007 participated by tribesmen and other influential persons from both sides
presented valuable suggestions to fight terrorism and bring peace in the region.
The ensuing Pak-Afghan Jirga was being viewed with great expectations to bring peace in
the region particularly to deal with the violence in Afghanistan. The participating
representatives of tribesmen from both sides suggested bringing Taliban onboard the peace
talks for bringing stability in the region. However to utter dismay of the people of both the
countries, the jirga the brain child of Afghan President Karzai, who was the main architect of
the structure and mechanism of this jirga, was put on backburner due to reasons that a peace
in Afghanistan clashed head-on with the US objectives in the region. Pakistani President
Musharraf at he concluding session of the jirga meeting had declared Taliban as legitimate
entity in the war and one of the delegates even went as far as demanding total withdrawal of
the US forces! Obviously, US was not amused and decided to shelve the idea. Now it is the
time that the concept be revived once again and brought in the limelight.
It is not some strange or alien idea as in the past during pre-Soviet invasion period tribal
elders from Pakistan used to be invited to Kabul as official guests and also used to attend the
proceedings of Loya Jirga of Afghanistan.
Fence/mine the border & install biometric system
Karzai’s ludicrous demands:
• Pakistan should stop Taliban from crossing.
• Pakistan should keep the refugee camps in Pakistan which act as safe areas for
Taliban.
• Pakistan should allow more people to people contact between tribes across the
border.
• Pakistan should not fence the border.
• Pakistan should not install biometric system to identity refugees from among
the militants.
• Pakistan should do more to stop Taliban !!!!
Now what do we make out of this confused set of ridiculous demands??
It is obvious that Mr. Karzai is only interested in creating crisis and confusion for Islamabad
and not in genuinely finding solutions to the problems of cross border movements. There is
no way Mr. Karzai or his government can accept fencing of the border as that affects their drug trade as well and they are then not able to support the BLA as well as some terrorists in
tribal regions. But it is time that Pakistan should “do more”.
Mr Karzai has been instrumental in worsening Pak-Afghan relations as the relations between
the two countries witnessed a steep downtrend following a continuing vitriol from Karzai
regarding the alleged “cross-border” infiltration of the Taliban from Pakistan.
To interdict the so-called movement of militants across the border, besides conducting
military operations in FATA, Pakistan also proposed to fence and mines the Pak-Afghan
border which was turned down by the Kabul Administration. It is ridiculous that Mr Karzai
constantly accuses Pakistan of ‘cross-border infiltration’ while at the same time advocates
open borders between the two countries. During his visit to Pakistan in February 2006,
Karzai opposed the fencing of the border and said he favored passport-free movement of
people along the Pak-Afghan border.
Fencing and mining the border can be very effective in checking infiltration of unwanted
elements into either of the two countries. If the Afghan president refuses to accept this
fencing and mining idea, then Pakistan has no responsibility of any sort to check any cross-
border movement. Enough is enough!
Many refugee camps were closed down in tribal agencies of Pakistan owing to the accusation
by Kabul that these are being used as sanctuaries by militants but the action did not sit well
with Afghan government unable to provide security and livelihood to own citizens. The
strange dichotomy is that Kabul is reluctant to accept the remedial steps for controlling
unwanted cross-border movement. It is nearly impossible to check each and every person
crossing without putting a mechanism in place at the border hence either the border has to be
fenced/ mined or biometric system has to be installed at Western border with Afghanistan as
has been done in Balochistan.
Pakistan has installed the system in Balochistan at Chaman at Pak-Afghan friendship gate but
again to utter disappointment some Afghans backed by some hidden hands time and again
damage the gate and even a high official of Karzai government took part in one such attack
aimed at damaging the system recently.
It dose not require a rocket science to understand that some vested elements in Karzai
government have some sinister motives behind such acts. The number of those who daily
cross over at only two crossing points of Chaman and Torkham is stated to be about 30, 000
with about 20,000 only at Chaman so put together with number of those crossing the porous
border points could go much higher.
Hence fencing/mining is necessary in the first place while installing biometric system is
equally important.
Needs for redefining Pakistan’s Afghan policy:
Since US attack on Afghanistan Pakistan has been carrying out a directionless Afghan policy.
It is time Pakistan declares neutrality in someone else’s war. Pakistan has already done great
damage to her security by supporting unequivocally and whole- hoggedly the US on its War-
on-Terror.
we had used every possible mean to destroy our assets and good will in Afghanistan but
despite damaging our presence in Afghanistan we get the blame for harboring Taliban and
relations with Afghanistan remain sour.
The bad relations between the two important neighbors would only contribute to the
instability of the region. It is, therefore, highly imperative for Pakistan to take an in-depth
stock of its future relationship with Afghanistan, assets and presence there.
What is most disappointing that despite taking a complete U-turn against Taliban even then it
did not win us the favor of the ungrateful Americans.
We must, therefore, in the best interest of Pakistan and its posterity realize that we can no
longer continue with this state of affairs at the cost and expense of our own national security.
It is time that we adopted a more neutral policy towards Afghan conflict and could play the
role of a mediator between the Afghan government and the Anti-Coalition forces including
Taliban and Hizb-e-Islami. Pakistan can play the role it was playing in the post-Soviet
invasion in Afghanistan by brining all those party to the conflict on a single platform to bring
peace to the war-torn country.
It is time that Karzai should accept ground realities and stop opposing fencing and mining of
border or installation of biometric system if he really is interested in effective checking of
cross-border infiltration. It is time that Taliban are accepted as a reality and brought on board
as agreed in Pak-Afghan jirga otherwise in plane diplomatic decent language borrowed from
the Queen’s English – Pakistan should ask Karzai to “put up or shut up.”
@Nikos,
Prof. Nikos, firstly, Obama was handed a pile of mess on his first day on the job, namely 2 wars and a crumbling economy. In all fairness, I think Obama has handled the perpetual catch-22′s that he has been given, pretty darn well. His options are very limited and his margins to operate are very narrow. All of this quagmire is the doing of the Bush Era, poor Obama has find a way to somehow start a clean slate with all of these perpetual wars and economic vampirism that has been tossed his way, first day into office. Obama has not really even begun to implement his own policies, his administration is so burdened trying to rectify the follies and social welfare for the rich, brought about by the last administration, who started those wars to make the rich richer and make the banks richer. Not Obama’s fault. Point the finger back at the predecessors.
@Surinder Puri,
True, the water shortages are the doing of the those who ran Pakistan. While they were busy making weapons, nukes and training terrorists to use in Afghanistan using IMF and beggar bowl money, they did not care for their average citizen who needs a job, an education, standard of life, let alone the bare necessities of life, like food and water. The PA and their puppet politicians shamefully and selfishly squandered the futures of their fellow Pakistani’s to keep their grip on power, using India as a fictitious enemy.
Using India, Israel and America as an enemy is not going to quench the thirst and fill the bellies of 170 million Pakistani’s.
One wonders if sense will ever come to Pakistani’s once they are thirsty and hungry and look for all the answers to all of their problems within their own borders. The answers and those who are the cause of ruin in their lives are right under their noses, on T.V. and Radio every day.