Pakistan: Now or Never?

Perspectives on Pakistan

Kashmir trade: glimmer of hope or false dawn?


In the aftermath of the deadly hotel bombing in Islamabad, amidst fresh tensions with the United States over  helicopter intrusions in Pakistan’s northwest, and in spite of reports of fresh cross-border firing in Kashmir, negotiators from India and Pakistan met in New Delhi and agreed to open trade across Kashmir. There could hardly have been a more unlikely time for the two countries to agree to crack open one of the world’s most militarised frontiers, where a ceasefire which has more or less held since 2003 is beginning to fray at the edges.


To be sure, the neighbours have a passenger bus service twice a month that links the two parts of Kashmir under their control, but it is heavily restricted and travellers are subject to all sorts of clearances before they can get anywhere near it.

So opening up trade, and at a time like this when Pakistan is battling multiple challenges, does seem like a significant step. Does this mean there is a glimmer of hope in the otherwise pervasive sense of gloom spreading across the region? Or is this another one of those false dawns that the people of the two countries have seen too often in the past, and especially the people of Kashmir?

What the two countries will trade is the first question that springs to mind. And are these goods that are meant to be traded without any tarriffs to be produced in the two Kashmirs or will they be coming from somewhere else?