Pakistan: Now or Never?
Perspectives on Pakistan
Pakistan: Getting Waziristan right this time
U.S. defence officials, in a ringing vote of confidence, said over the weekend that Pakistan had the forces and equipment to launch a long-awaited ground offensive in South Waziristan. It could mount this assault without seeking more reinforcements, a U.S. official said, according to this Reuters report. Yet Pakistan had cited in recent months shortages of helicopters, armoured vehicles and precision weapons in putting off a Waziristan assault.So what has changed? Has the United States, desperate to turn around a faltering war in Afghanistan, got ahead of itself in nudging Pakistan toward “the mother-of-all battles”? Some people are asking if the Pakistan Army is really ready to start what must be its bigest test yet since the militants turned on the Pakistani state. If the idea is to go in and linflict casualties on the Taliban in the hope of killing senior leaders, then it will be another punitive strike for which the force levels may well be adequate.But if the Pakistan Army plans to go into the Mehsud strongholds and occupy the region then the numbers are a bit worrying, says Bill Roggio at The Long War Journal. A Pakistan Army spokesman has said that two divisions, or up to 28,000 soldiers, are in place to take on an estimated 10,000 hard-core Taliban. But Roggio says Waliur Rehman Mehsud, who heads the Mehsud Taliban forces in Waziristan, (Hakimullah Mehsud who surfaced at the weekend is the overall head of the Pakistani Taliban) is estimated to command anything between 10,000 to 30,000 forces. If the army were to wage a full-scale counter-insurgency they and the Frontier Corps “would need to throw multiple divisions against a Taliban force of this size,” he argues. And then there is the Haqqani network, as well as a sizeable contingent of Uzbek and other non-Pakistani fighters in the area. They may well join the fight, according to the Dawn newspaper. (more…)
Talk of Waziristan offensive picks up in Pakistan
According to Dawn newspaper, the Pakistan Army is poised to launch a major military operation in South Waziristan, stronghold of the Pakistani Taliban.
It quotes senior military and security officials as saying that the army would launch what it called “the mother of all battles” in the coming days.
“If we don’t take the battle to them, they will bring the battle to us,” it quotes a senior military official as saying of the militants. “The epicentre of the behemoth called the Taliban lies in South Waziristan, and this is where we will be fighting the toughest of all battles.”
“For three months, the military has been drawing up plans, holding in-depth deliberations and carrying out studies on past expeditions to make what seems to be the last grand stand against Pakistani Taliban in the Mehsud heartland a success,” it says.
“We are ready. The environment is ready,” it quotes the senior officer as saying. “It will not be a walkover. This is going to be casualty-intensive hard fighting. The nation will have to bear the pain,” said another officer.
The Pakistan Army is not saying anything in public, and information about its operations in Waziristan is hard to come by since the area is so remote and inaccessible.
But any ground offensive into South Waziristan would be a major escalation in the Pakistan Army’s battle against the Pakistani Taliban, dwarfing its operation earlier this year to clear militants out of the Swat valley northwest of Islamabad.
Myra,I missed an important part of your question – about the impact of Waziristan operation on Afghanistan.Well, even the imminency of this operation alone is having a salutary effect on Pak-Afghan-NATO alliance.This operation will be a major disruption for the Pakistani Taliban in their role as a conduit of support for the Afghan Taliban. This will also foster deeper trust among the Allies. This operation will also prove that Pakistan is not only thinking of its own national interest but also that of its friendly neighbour, Afghanistan. A major success in Waziristan will decimate the taliban numbers and they will learn to their detriment that a determined modern military force will eventually prevail against their ill founded insurgency.
Hallo Mr Siddiqui,
I almost missed you. I have the impression that you are a genuine gentleman and very persistent in your position.I do think differently and therefore our disagreements. What matters for me is facts and not so much the pathology or interpretations:
.PA was defeated in east because of the strategic blunder made by its Commander.He spread his forces throughout the country to suppress its citizens and later was unable to defend the capital against the Indian Force.
. He then followed the text book instructions for surrender of the entire army instead of resisting the invading army. In any case this is now in the military history, A Classic Blunder.
.PA needs to be restructure to become a national army. They do not need to attack its neighbours or civilians to prove their stregnth.
. PA intrusion into Swat is of a criminal nature and should in my view be regarded as war crimes. PA has no business to use air power and artillery destroying houses, hospitals and schools similar to what Israel did in Lebanon and Gaza. Who is going to repair the damage and pay for the costs.
.PA intrusion into the waziri land is illegal and against the agreements made with Brits. and later with successive Pakistan govts.
. PA needs to get out of the Cantonments which the Brits had built to protect their colonial Force and the Families. They have no business residing among the civilian citizens holding an elite status.
Your assertion of few massuds(few Bengalis in Bengal campaign) is misleading, also they do not consider themselves as soldiers of Islam, I watch this phenomina among the PA regarding themselves martyrs, when they loose their lives in combat agaist the Indian Army or their own citizens.
. Pakistan in my view has lost the legitimacy to stay a single unit any more. I do not see any longer a common denominator for Pushtoos or for that matter Baluchis with Punjabis and sindhis to stay within the fedration of Pakistan.
. I mentioned earlier that the Massuds are the fiercest wariors among the waziris.Unfortunately the cable network does not show their performance against the PA because of the military blackout, but we do get the chance to watch how a single sniper pinns down the entire platoon of marines for several hours until the helecopter appears in the sky and the sniper leaves. Sir, You must have seen on the TV that PA is no longer in a position to defend their own Headquarte. A classic scenario, who would you blame now if the Indian parachute regiment lands in the Pakistan capital like they did in the east, and leave the PA intact currently operating in border areas? Have a nice day.