Pakistan: Now or Never?
Perspectives on Pakistan
In Pakistan, making sense of the “do more” mantra
White House National Security Adviser Jim Jones and CIA director Leon Panetta are visiting Pakistan to step up pressure on militant groups following this month’s failed car-bombing in New York’s Times Square. But what specifically do they want from Pakistan in what has now become a familiar “do more” mantra from the U.S. administration? That, as yet, is not entirely clear.
The Washington Post and the New York Times quoted unnamed administration officials as saying Jones and Panetta would press Pakistan to step up its military action against Pakistani and Afghan Taliban militants based in its tribal areas bordering Afghanistan.
“Officials say the administration has been pleased so far with Pakistani cooperation in the investigation (into the failed Times Square bombing), which has focused on any role insurgent groups there might have played in helping to train and otherwise assist bombing suspect Faisal Shahzad,” the Washington Post reported. ”But officials said that Jones and Panetta intend to reiterate to the Pakistanis the importance that the administration places on more aggressive military action against groups allied with al Qaeda in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, or FATA.”
The New York Times quoted a senior administration official as saying that General Jones would not threaten the Pakistanis, but would convey the risks to the country’s relationship with the United States if a deadly terrorist attack originated there. He planned to prod them to take tougher steps against the Taliban and other insurgent groups, the newspaper quoted the official as saying.
“While General Jones’s specific requests were not clear,” according to the newspaper, “the senior administration official said he might ask Pakistan’s military to push harder into North Waziristan, the main base for the Pakistani Taliban, al Qaeda and other militant groups.”
“There is creeping frustration,” it quoted the administration official as saying. “Some people are asking, ‘Why are they not going into North Waziristan?’ ” Among the other possible American requests, it said, were more intense surveillance of suspected terrorists and allowing more American military advisers to operate in Pakistan. The United States is also proposing to open a new consulate in Quetta, in southwestern Pakistan, where the C.I.A. would likely have a sizable presence.
The Pakistan Army says it is already stretched fighting in other parts of the tribal areas and is reluctant to rush into a new offensive in North Waziristan until it has consolidated its gains elsewhere. It launched a major operation in South Waziristan last year, and is now engaged in heavy fighting in Orakzai to the north after clearing out other tribal areas. As a result it is slowly tightening a noose around North Waziristan. (The Long War Journal has a good map showing where Orakzai is in relation to North Waziristan.)
from Afghan Journal:
Guest Column: Getting Obama’s Afghan policy back on track
(C. Uday Bhaskar is a New Delhi-based strategic analyst. The views expressed in the column are his own).
By C. Uday Bhaskar
The May 12 summit meeting in the White House between visiting Afghan President Hamid Karzai and his host, U.S. President Barack Obama comes against the backdrop of the mercifully aborted May 1 terrorist bombing incident in New York's Times Square.
From the barrage of news and commentary that floods various media outlets here in Washington DC, it is evident that the Obama Af-Pak policy unveiled with considerable fanfare last year will be in for detailed and contested policy review.
Immediate U.S. interests apart - including the Obama second term, the stakes for the long-term stability of the entire southern Asian region and the troubled Muslim populace in the scattered diaspora ranging from North America to west Europe are immense and complex.
Afghanistan came into global focus with the tragic enormity of September 11, 2001 when it was under the control of the Taliban and the obscurantist, anti-liberal ideology espoused by this group had earlier impacted India's security interests in the December 1999 aircraft hijacking episode.
@Nikos,
Prof. Nikos, firstly, Obama was handed a pile of mess on his first day on the job, namely 2 wars and a crumbling economy. In all fairness, I think Obama has handled the perpetual catch-22′s that he has been given, pretty darn well. His options are very limited and his margins to operate are very narrow. All of this quagmire is the doing of the Bush Era, poor Obama has find a way to somehow start a clean slate with all of these perpetual wars and economic vampirism that has been tossed his way, first day into office. Obama has not really even begun to implement his own policies, his administration is so burdened trying to rectify the follies and social welfare for the rich, brought about by the last administration, who started those wars to make the rich richer and make the banks richer. Not Obama’s fault. Point the finger back at the predecessors.
@Surinder Puri,
True, the water shortages are the doing of the those who ran Pakistan. While they were busy making weapons, nukes and training terrorists to use in Afghanistan using IMF and beggar bowl money, they did not care for their average citizen who needs a job, an education, standard of life, let alone the bare necessities of life, like food and water. The PA and their puppet politicians shamefully and selfishly squandered the futures of their fellow Pakistani’s to keep their grip on power, using India as a fictitious enemy.
Using India, Israel and America as an enemy is not going to quench the thirst and fill the bellies of 170 million Pakistani’s.
One wonders if sense will ever come to Pakistani’s once they are thirsty and hungry and look for all the answers to all of their problems within their own borders. The answers and those who are the cause of ruin in their lives are right under their noses, on T.V. and Radio every day.
Pakistan-despite failed NY attack, change will be slow in coming
After the media frenzy following last weekend’s failed car bomb attack on Times Square, you would be forgiven for thinking that something dramatic is about to change in Pakistan. The reality, however, is probably going to be much greyer.
Much attention has naturally focused on North Waziristan, a bastion for al Qaeda, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Afghan fighters including those in the Haqqani network, and the so-called “Punjabi Taliban” - militants from Punjab-based groups who have joined the battle either in Afghanistan or against the Pakistani state. The Pakistan Army is expected to come under fresh pressure to launch an offensive in North Waziristan after Faisal Shahzad, who according to U.S. authorities admitted to the failed car-bombing in Times Square, said he had received training in Waziristan. Unlike other parts of the tribal areas on the Pakistan-Afghan border, North Waziristan has so far been left largely alone.
But it is by no means clear that the Pakistan Army will be rushed into launching a big offensive in North Waziristan. It is already stretched fighting in other parts of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), including in South Waziristan, where it embarked on a major operation last year. Before starting any new offensive, it needs to be sure it is not going to be attacked from the rear, or become so thinly stretched that it loses hard-fought gains elsewhere. As one senior military official told me, you have to be very sure-footed, consolidate your gains, and make sure your bases are secure.
That said, even before the failed Times Square attack, the New York Times suggested Pakistan was beginning to weigh the possibility of tackling militants in North Waziristan. But its decision on timing is unlikely to be dictated by one incident, however dramatic. The Pakistan Army has put considerable energy into improving its image after the tarnishing of the Musharraf years, and is determined to show that when it does launch military offensives, it does so to win. And if there is one thing worse than not going into North Waziristan, it is going in there and losing.
Increased drone missile attacks on targets in North Waziristan are another option. But for drone missile strikes to be successful - taking out militant targets while limiting the civilian deaths which make them so unpopular in Pakistan - you need good intelligence on the ground. The killing in North Waziristan last month of former Pakistan intelligence officer Khalid Khawaja, who reportedly had strong contacts with al Qaeda and the Taliban, leaves a question mark over whether anyone now has really good intelligence on what is happening there.
Meanwhile, uncertainty over the U.S. strategy in Afghanistan is not helping – you can already hear Pakistan Army officers wondering aloud why Pakistan is driving militants out of its tribal areas only for them to escape across the border to live to fight another day.
Nor are tentative peace talks with India likely to lead to a sudden change in Pakistan’s military posture, under which it keeps the bulk of its army on the Indian border. The Pakistan Army already moved a significant number of troops from its Indian border to fight Taliban militants on its Afghan border last year and is unlikely to redeploy more despite an easing of tensions with India – its army chief is reported to say that the military deals with capabilities rather than intentions.
@G-W
You have lost the bet sir. Obama is unlikely to deliver Afghanistan to neocon republicans. Perhaps you should give him a tip how to exit without suffering the fate of Vietnam. Pakistan is in no position to help Obama either in this endeavour. Wars are fought on battle grounds and not in the congress, they also have their own momentum. The US is in no position to take on a fight with the nuclear armed country otherwise they would have incvaded Korea and Iran long time ago. Who says that Iran does not have a nuclear arsenal of their own. Let us leave Pakistan alone, its army has more lethal force than the vietnamese army. Remember the old Indian saying, the barking dogs seldom bite. I would not take threats from the lady seriously. The threats from the defence secretary or the President are usually serious and can sometimes cause the reaction from the thratened party prematuredly. The US is a bankrupt country and in no position to start a third front in the subcontinent next to China. The US would have delegated this task to India who I doubt has the stomach for a nuclear response.
Rex Minor
Times Square bombing; was the inspiration from the U.S. or Pakistan?
The failed car bomb attack on New York’s Times Square this weekend is almost certain to rekindle questions about a “jihadi highway” where citizens of western countries, often radicalised at home, seek either inspiration or training from one of many militant groups based in Pakistan.
According to a U.S. law enforcement source, Faisal Shahzad, the Pakistani-American arrested on suspicion of driving the car into Times Square this weekend, told authorities he was acting alone. But investigators are also looking into a recent trip he made to Pakistan to see if he had links to Islamist militants based there, which include al Qaeda, the Pakistani Taliban and a host of Punjab-based groups and splinter organisations, some originally linked to the fight against India in Kashmir.
In Pakistan, security sources said police had made some arrests, including of family members, in connection with the attack. An intelligence official said Shahzad had received militant training in northwest Pakistan near the garrison town of Kohat. The area around Kohat is a stronghold of Tariq Afridi, the main Pakistani Taliban commander in the region.
Any training Shahzad did receive in Pakistan (and let’s remember that he has only been arrested so far rather than found guilty) was unlikely to have been particularly extensive given the rather amateurish nature of the car bomb he is accused of assembling.
“My first take is whoever did this didn’t have a whole lot of training, if any. And could have solely gone off manuals they’ve found on the net,” counter-terrorism expert Leah Farrall wrote on her blog before some of the latest details were reported. “There are ample training materials out there from all manner of terrorist groups and crazies. And plenty of things that outline how to build a device just like this.”
She adds that it is far more difficult for an untrained person to engineer a bomb explosion than most people think. ”This is why, for example, training for construction of explosives and explosives devices in terrorist training camps has historically taken up to two years, as opposed to the usual basic training where people are trained how to ‘use’ explosives instead of how to build devices. It is an ongoing problem for militant groups. This is why some of them (and here I’m thinking AQ) often sent the detonator or a key part of it back with those it was deploying to carry out attacks. Especially for the more sophisticated attacks. Or they gave intensive one on one or small group training.”
Alec Barker made a similar point in an article for Foreign Policy.
@Grag
Now you got it, the terrorism has to be quatified.
Bill clinton had the missiles fired at Afghanistan is not classufied as terrorism, since Mr Bin Laden was stationed there who apparently was involved in attacks on the US ship. The group that attacked on sept. 11 were considered terrorists because the USA had not attacked an Arab State. George W attack on Afghanistan demandsing Bin Laden from the Taliban Govt. got it all confused since it was the Afghans who were involved in New York. One has to allow a space for the resistance fighters whose land is under occupation or under attack. The Chechanians, the kashmirirs,the maoists, the temils, the Palestinians and the afghans need to be given a place among the resistance fighters. This is not my opinion nor would it make any difference on the ground, but the thoughts are that their struggle is limited and likely to disappear as soon as the matter is resilved politically and the occupation or suppression ends. The resistance do not have norms or morals. Let us not blame the media in general for this, though there are some who do not always adopt a neutral position.
Rex MInor
@anesh Prasad
You are asking too much of a muslim state to get off their jehadis*****. First they do not understand your jibberish language and secondly for a muslim to forget Jihad is like asking an FBI man to forget his dective work. Please have mercy on them, Jehad is the only usable weapon they have got left to fight the infidels. They do not yet know how to use the nukes against you. By the way you are not an infidel, are you. If not you should’nt worry about their Jihad. I am sure they are going to find the infidels among themselves.
Rex Minor