What’s a Fed to do? Taper talk persists despite missed jobs, inflation targets
As the Federal Reserve meets this week, unemployment is still too high and inflation remains, well, too low. That makes some investors wonder why policymakers are talking about curtailing their asset-buying stimulus plan. True, job growth has averaged a solid 172,000 net new positions per month over the last year, going at least some way to meeting the Fed’s criteria of substantial improvement for halting bond purchases.
So, either policymakers see brighter skies ahead or they want to get out of QE3 for other reasons they may rather not air too publicly: worries about efficacy or possible financial market bubbles.
“This was really eye-opening for me”: Fed’s Raskin shocked at low quality of work at local job fair
The first portion of Federal Reserve Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin’s remarks to the Roosevelt Institute earlier this month were pretty standard central bank fodder. Raskin, on the dovish side of Fed monetary leanings, said U.S. unemployment was still too high, and far more progress was needed in bringing a somnolent job market back to life.
But the second half of her comments offered an unusually personal look at one Fed official’s dismay with the country’s economic situation. Stumbling into a job fair near her house, Raskin was stunned by the generally low quality of positions available. In her own words:
What’s in a (trend payrolls) number? The Chicago Fed paper that shook the markets, ever so slightly
Ann Saphir contributed to this post
The apparent conclusion from one of the most dovish regional Federal Reserve banks was rather surprising: The economy may actually need much smaller monthly job growth, of around 80,000 or less, in coming years in order for the jobless rate to keep moving lower. The immediate policy implication, it might seem, is that the U.S. central bank may have to tighten monetary policy much sooner than previously thought.
Andrew Brenner of National Alliance remarked that, while the report should be taken with a grain of salt, “this translates to lowering the bar to QE tapering.”
Yellen overwhelming favorite to replace Bernanke at Fed
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve’s powerful vice chair, is by far the most likely candidate to replace Ben Bernanke when his second term at the helm of the U.S. central bank ends early next year, according to a Reuters poll of economists.
The poll found that an overwhelming 40 of 44 economists said Yellen, the former president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, will take over for her boss in February 2014. Support for her nomination was strong but less decisive, with 23 of 38 economists backing Yellen’s bid for the top job.
Yellen overwhelming favorite to replace Bernanke at Fed: Reuters poll
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve’s powerful vice chair, is by far the most likely candidate to replace Ben Bernanke when his second term at the helm of the U.S. central bank ends early next year, according to a Reuters poll of economists.
The poll found that an overwhelming 40 of 44 economists said Yellen, the former president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, will take over for her boss in February 2014. Support for her nomination was strong but less decisive, with 23 of 38 economists backing Yellen’s bid for the top job.
Reuters poll: Janet Yellen overwhelming favourite to replace Bernanke at Fed
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve’s powerful vice chair, is by far the most likely candidate to replace Ben Bernanke when his second term at the helm of the U.S. central bank ends early next year, according to a Reuters poll of economists.
The poll found that an overwhelming 40 of 44 economists said Yellen, the former president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, will take over for her boss in February 2014. Support for her nomination was strong but less decisive, with 23 of 38 economists backing Yellen’s bid for the top job.
Forget the ‘wealth effect’: real wages drive U.S. consumer spending
Federal Reserve officials have touted the ‘wealth effect’ from higher stock prices and rising home values as a key way in which monetary policy boosts consumer spending and economic activity. But according to the results of a recent survey from the Royal Bank of Canada, that ethereal feeling of being richer on paper is no substitute for cold, hard cash.
Here’s how Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke explained the benefits of rising asset prices to the real economy during a press conference in September.
No relief in sight for millions of unemployed Americans: Cleveland Fed report
The new normal is getting old. And when it comes to America’s stuttering employment market, it’s not going to get much better any time soon, according to a new report from the Cleveland Fed.
The U.S. economy created 175,000 new jobs in May, while the jobless rate rose slightly. It was a neither-here-nor-there sort of report. In the Labor Department’s own words: Both “the number of unemployed persons, at 11.8 million, and the unemployment rate, at 7.6 percent, were essentially unchanged in May.”
Inflation, not jobs, may hold key to Fed exit
It’s that time of the month again: Wall Street is anxiously awaiting the monthly employment figures – less because of its interest in job creation and more because of what the numbers will mean for the Federal Reserve’s unconventional stimulus policies.
As one money manager put it all too candidly: “Bad news is good news in this market lately because it keeps the Fed buying bonds and interest rates low.”
U.S. economy expanding, but still sluggishly: Fed Beige Book
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. economy expanded at a “modest to moderate” pace since mid-April while hiring remained relatively subdued, according to a Federal Reserve report based on discussions with business contacts.
Consumer spending picked up and housing continued to show signs of strength, the Fed’s Beige Book showed. The previous report cited “moderate” growth, so the addition of the word “modest” may hint at some weakening.

