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Apr 8, 2014
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Russia would pay steep price for Ukraine invasion

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By Pierre Briançon

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Vladimir Putin wants to destabilise Ukraine, but he may balk at the economic price Russia would pay for a full-blown invasion. The seizure of government buildings in several eastern Ukrainian cities has rekindled fears of military intervention in the mostly Russian-speaking parts of the country. A major consideration before sending in troops would be the price paid by Russia’s economy. Putin can expect to be severely punished by both markets and Western governments.

Apr 8, 2014
via Breakingviews

Russia would pay steep price for Ukraine invasion

Photo

By Pierre Briançon

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Vladimir Putin wants to destabilise Ukraine, but he may balk at the economic price Russia would pay for a full-blown invasion. The seizure of government buildings in several eastern Ukrainian cities has rekindled fears of military intervention in the mostly Russian-speaking parts of the country. A major consideration before sending in troops would be the price paid by Russia’s economy. Putin can expect to be severely punished by both markets and Western governments.

Apr 2, 2014
via Breakingviews

The question ECB hasn’t answered: why wait?

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By  Pierre Briançon

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

There is only one question worth asking Mario Draghi right now: what does he intend to do to boost inflation? The European Central Bank of which he is president is failing at its only mandate – maintaining price stability in the euro zone, defined as a rate of inflation “below but close” to 2 percent. The most recent numbers – inflation last month was at an annual rate of 0.5 percent, and prices  have risen 1.2 percent in the last 12 months – is nowhere near the target. And judging by the ECB’s own forecast, the rate won’t get much nearer by 2016. Real deflation remains, so far, a low-risk scenario. But economies like Spain or Greece are suffering from the ECB’s inaction. And is even a small risk of dangerous deflation worth taking? Acting now could spare the ECB more aggressive policies later. What’s the upside of playing with fire?

Apr 2, 2014
via Breakingviews

The question ECB hasn’t answered: why wait?

Photo

By  Pierre Briançon

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

There is only one question worth asking Mario Draghi right now: what does he intend to do to boost inflation? The European Central Bank of which he is president is failing at its only mandate – maintaining price stability in the euro zone, defined as a rate of inflation “below but close” to 2 percent. The most recent numbers – inflation last month was at an annual rate of 0.5 percent, and prices  have risen 1.2 percent in the last 12 months – is nowhere near the target. And judging by the ECB’s own forecast, the rate won’t get much nearer by 2016. Real deflation remains, so far, a low-risk scenario. But economies like Spain or Greece are suffering from the ECB’s inaction. And is even a small risk of dangerous deflation worth taking? Acting now could spare the ECB more aggressive policies later. What’s the upside of playing with fire?

Mar 27, 2014
via Breakingviews

Ukraine bailout can work if politics are fixed

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By Pierre Briançon

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The International Monetary Fund has just invented delayed shock therapy. Its bailout package for Ukraine will help the country deal with financial emergency. The Fund hasn’t given up on conditionality, but it has been clever enough to recognise that political turmoil and the transitional nature of the Kiev government don’t allow for the type of tough love that could backfire. Ukrainians won’t have a credible administration capable of making long-term pledges until they choose a president on May 25.

Mar 27, 2014
via Breakingviews

Ukraine bailout can work if politics are fixed

Photo

By Pierre Briançon

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The International Monetary Fund has just invented delayed shock therapy. Its bailout package for Ukraine will help the country deal with financial emergency. The Fund hasn’t given up on conditionality, but it has been clever enough to recognise that political turmoil and the transitional nature of the Kiev government don’t allow for the type of tough love that could backfire. Ukrainians won’t have a credible administration capable of making long-term pledges until they choose a president on May 25.

Mar 14, 2014
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Rouble hard to defend against Putin’s attacks

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By Pierre Briançon

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Vladimir Putin isn’t waiting for the European Union’s sanctions on Russia and is already inflicting serious damage on the nation’s economy. The Russian president’s move on Crimea has sent Moscow stock markets down by 18 percent since the beginning of March, and the rouble has fallen almost 2 percent in the same period, and 12 percent since January, even with the Central Bank of Russia dipping into its $500 billion-odd worth of reserves to defend the currency. Yields on 10-year Russian government bonds now stand at 9.42 percent, up 1 percentage point since the events in Crimea.

Mar 14, 2014
via Breakingviews

Rouble hard to defend against Putin’s attacks

Photo

By Pierre Briançon

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Vladimir Putin isn’t waiting for the European Union’s sanctions on Russia and is already inflicting serious damage on the nation’s economy. The Russian president’s move on Crimea has sent Moscow stock markets down by 18 percent since the beginning of March, and the rouble has fallen almost 2 percent in the same period, and 12 percent since January, even with the Central Bank of Russia dipping into its $500 billion-odd worth of reserves to defend the currency. Yields on 10-year Russian government bonds now stand at 9.42 percent, up 1 percentage point since the events in Crimea.

Mar 7, 2014
via Breakingviews

What Putin wants matters less than what he doesn’t

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By Pierre Briançon

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The Western governments wondering what Vladimir Putin wants in Ukraine should start by focusing on what he doesn’t. That has become a little clearer after the Russian president’s rambling press conference earlier this week, during which glimpses of rationality appeared amidst a long, disingenuous rant against the new authorities in Kiev. Putin doesn’t want Crimea – which is only a pawn in his Ukrainian game. He is not ready to take the risk of a Western-style democracy in the former Soviet republic. And he fears the disruption of the economic and financial ties that bind Russia and Ukraine.

Mar 7, 2014
via Breakingviews

What Putin wants matters less than what he doesn’t

Photo

By Pierre Briançon

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The Western governments wondering what Vladimir Putin wants in Ukraine should start by focusing on what he doesn’t. That has become a little clearer after the Russian president’s rambling press conference earlier this week, during which glimpses of rationality appeared amidst a long, disingenuous rant against the new authorities in Kiev. Putin doesn’t want Crimea – which is only a pawn in his Ukrainian game. He is not ready to take the risk of a Western-style democracy in the former Soviet republic. And he fears the disruption of the economic and financial ties that bind Russia and Ukraine.

    • About Pierre

      "Pierre Briançon is Reuters Breakingviews' Paris correspondent. He joined Breakingviews.com in 2006, after heading the Dow Jones Newswires Paris Bureau Chief for three years. Previously, he had been: business editor of Libération, then the newspaper's Moscow and Washington correspondent; deputy editor of L’Expansion; and a producer/columnist for French radio and TV. He is also the author of Messier Story (2002), on the fall of Vivendi’s former chief executive, Héritiers du désastre (1992) on the collapse of the Soviet Union, and San Quentin Jazz Band (2008)."
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