Editor in Charge, Polling, Bangalore
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Aug 27, 2015
via MacroScope

World FX elephants fighting and so grass getting flattened

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The ongoing race to the bottom for currencies this year is hurtling towards a zero-sum result.

Nearly 40 central banks around the world have rushed to ease policy this year, weakening their currencies in the hope of improving export competitiveness and in some cases lifting imported inflation.

Aug 5, 2015

Fed’s rate path to define dollar strength in the coming year: Reuters poll

By Rahul Karunakar

(Reuters) – With the U.S. Federal Reserve poised to hike interest rates as early as next month, the dollar will rise in the coming year, but by how much will depend on the course of monetary policy, a Reuters poll found.

The driving force behind the dollar’s 18-month surge is expectation the U.S. rates will rise this year, even as most other major central banks maintain their accommodative stands.

Jul 23, 2015

No growth burst on the horizon yet for world economy

BENGALURU/LONDON (Reuters) – With little sign of accelerating growth or inflation, most central banks are still looking to ease monetary policy, in stark contrast to the U.S. Federal Reserve which is on the brink of its first rate hike in nearly a decade.

That bias towards easing, from China to Canada, comes at a time when the world economy, with a few exceptions like the United States, appears weak despite historically-low oil prices and bond yields along with soaring stock and property prices.

Jul 2, 2015

Fed’s policy action to drive euro over coming year, not Greece – poll

By Rahul Karunakar

(Reuters) – The pace and timing of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hikes will continue to be the prime driver of where the euro trades in the coming year, not what happens to Greece, a Reuters poll of foreign exchange strategists found.

Greece’s euro zone membership is at risk after defaulting on its debt to the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday and as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has urged Greeks to reject a now-expired aid-for-reform offer at a referendum on July 5.

Jun 24, 2015
via MacroScope

ECB TLTROs working but lending has a long way to go

Almost a year after the European Central Bank announced new cash loans tied to actual lending to small and medium enterprises, data on Friday is expected to show euro zone private loans are picking up pace.

To stimulate loan growth the ECB aimed to provide billions of euros in cheap cash, encouraging much of that money to be lent to businesses.
The central bank, through its Targeted Long-term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs), has doled out 384.08 billion euros to banks so far.
The ECB’s credit-easing measures could be working, according to the consensus from 11 economists in a Reuters poll last week.
Private lending, considered the euro zone’s economic backbone, is forecast to rise 0.4 percent in May on a year-on-year basis.

Apr 22, 2015

Global growth outlook steady despite oil fall, stimulus burst

LONDON/BENGALURU (Reuters) – A collapse in oil prices that gave a windfall to the world’s energy consumers and a flurry of policy easing from central banks might have been expected to brighten the outlook for global economic growth.

But Reuters polls of more than 250 economists across Europe and North America show only modest upgrades to growth forecasts and a reluctance to relinquish a depressed inflation view, despite the rush of rate cuts and central bank cash that most respondents believe is far from over.

Apr 22, 2015

Global growth outlook steady despite oil fall, stimulus burst: Reuters poll

LONDON/BENGALURU (Reuters) – A collapse in oil prices that gave a windfall to the world’s energy consumers and a flurry of policy easing from central banks might have been expected to brighten the outlook for global economic growth.

But Reuters polls of more than 250 economists across Europe and North America show only modest upgrades to growth forecasts and a reluctance to relinquish a depressed inflation view, despite the rush of rate cuts and central bank cash that most respondents believe is far from over.

Apr 9, 2015

Dollar to take a breather on delayed Fed hike expectations: poll

By Rahul Karunakar

(Reuters) – Any gains for the dollar will be more subdued going forward, as doubts over the timing of an eventual U.S. interest rate hike put the brakes on an historic rally over the past year, a Reuters poll found.

The greenback has had an almost uninterrupted run against a basket of major currencies, rising almost 13 percent in 2014 and a further 9 percent this year on the view the Fed could raise rates as soon as in June.

Apr 9, 2015

Dollar to take a breather on delayed Fed hike expectations-Reuters poll

April 9 (Reuters) – Any gains for the dollar will be more
subdued going forward, as doubts over the timing of an eventual
U.S. interest rate hike put the brakes on an historic rally over
the past year, a Reuters poll found.

The greenback has had an almost uninterrupted run against a
basket of major currencies, rising almost 13 percent in 2014 and
a further 9 percent this year on the view the Fed could raise
rates as soon as in June.

Mar 31, 2015

Reuters Poll: Market uncertainty tempers forecasts for equities’ gains this year

By Rahul Karunakar and Hari Kishan

(Reuters) – Uncertainty surrounding the timing of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike has tempered analysts’ forecasts for stock market gains this year, Reuters polls showed on Tuesday.

Global stocks have largely rallied since the start of the year, with several indexes at or close to record highs as more than two dozen central banks have eased monetary policy.

    • About Rahul

      "Rahul Karunakar is editor-in-charge of Reuters polls team in Bangalore. The team of correspondents and analysts conducts polls related to Reuters news coverage on everything from economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, foreign exchange, other asset classes, as well as snap polls on mainly macroeconomic and financial stories driving the news agenda."
      Joined Reuters:
      2005
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