Raymond's Feed
Aug 6, 2010

Brazil’s Rousseff widens lead, survives debate

BRASILIA, Aug 5 (Reuters) – Ruling party candidate Dilma Rousseff looked set to pull away in Brazil’s presidential race on Thursday as she opened up her biggest lead yet in polls and emerged largely unscathed from the first nationally televised debate. Rousseff was hesitant at times but displayed a clear command of statistics and policy in a polite and mostly uneventful debate with three other candidates including her main challenger, former Sao Paulo state governor Jose Serra. A new poll out Thursday showed Rousseff with a 10 point advantage over Serra. Rousseff has benefited in recent weeks from Brazil’s robust economy and the popularity of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who has campaigned actively on her behalf. Just over six months ago, Serra had a 20 percentage-point advantage in polls. But in the TV Bandeirantes debate, Serra passed up several opportunities to hit Rousseff hard, preferring instead to make general criticisms of Brazil’s poor infrastructure and health system. "Traveling on federal highways in Brazil today is a public danger," Serra said. Serra faces the difficult task of needing to remain the critical opposition candidate while not alienating the vast majority of Brazil’s electorate who are satisfied with the economy and Lula’s government. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ For a factbox on Brazil political risk [ID:nRISKBR] For the candidates’ proposals [ID:nN04266067] For a factbox on recent opinion polls [ID:nN04275215] ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ "(Serra) successfully targeted some of the government’s weak spots but didn’t score major points," said Rafael Cortez, political analyst with Tendencias consultancy in Sao Paulo. One of the debate’s key moments came early, when Serra was given the opportunity to ask Rousseff a question directly. Yet instead of asking about corruption scandals that forced several of Lula’s top advisers to resign, for example, he asked Rousseff for her views on health, education and crime. "Brazil has advanced step by step," Rousseff replied. NO "CLEAR WINNER" Even if Serra had scored major points, the debate’s importance was arguable. It began at 10 p.m. and faced competition for viewers from a crucial soccer match. Fireworks could be heard in Sao Paulo with each goal. Rousseff, a technocrat who has never stood for public office, faced the challenge of emerging from Lula’s shadow and displaying a sometimes absent common touch. She occasionally stumbled in her response but gave an overall solid defense of her track record in the government, citing job growth, economic stability, and poverty reduction. "She may not be an excellent speaker but she didn’t make any major mistakes. I didn’t see a clear winner, an event that would change the course of the election," Cortez said. (Editing by Jackie Frank)

Aug 5, 2010

Brazil’s Serra, falling in polls, needs TV boost

BRASILIA, Aug 5 (Reuters) – Brazil’s ruling party presidential candidate Dilma Rousseff surged into her biggest poll lead on Thursday, piling pressure on her rival Jose Serra for a sterling performance in the first nationally televised debate.

Former Sao Paulo state Governor Serra, 68, who has debated in public since he was a student leader nearly 50 years ago, fell 10 points behind in the new poll as Rousseff gained from Brazil’s robust economy and growing name recognition.

Just six months ago, Serra had a 20 percentage-point advantage in polls for the October election.

In the debate on TV Bandeirantes on Thursday night, Serra will try to regain momentum by playing up his experience and undermining Rousseff’s role as energy minister and later chief of staff of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

But it will be a delicate balancing act for Serra, who boasts an Ivy League education and extensive managerial experience, given that the vast majority of Brazil’s electorate is satisfied with the economy and Lula’s government.

“He’s got to challenge her without looking aggressive,” said Valeriano Costa, a professor of politics at Unicamp. Serra already had an image as arrogant, Costa said.

Rousseff, a technocrat who has never stood for public office, will face the challenge of emerging from Lula’s shadow and displaying a sometimes absent common touch. But the recent trend in polls clearly puts the pressure on Serra.

Aug 5, 2010

Brazil’s Serra eyes TV to claw back poll losses

BRASILIA, Aug 5 (Reuters) – Brazil’s opposition candidate Jose Serra has debated in public since he was a student leader nearly half a century ago, but in the first TV debate in October’s presidential race it will be difficult for him to recover support lost in recent months.

Former Sao Paulo state Governor Serra, 68, has run for public office seven times, boasts an Ivy League education and extensive managerial experience.

And yet in just over six months he went from leading by 20 percentage points to trailing the ruling party candidate Dilma Rousseff, a sometimes lackluster technocrat who has never stood for public office in her life. [ID:nN30185728]

In the debate on TV Bandeirantes on Thursday night, Serra will not only try to play up his experience but also undermine Rousseff’s role as energy minister and later chief of staff in President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s government.

But analysts say it will be a delicate balancing act, given that the vast majority of the people are satisfied with the economy and the Lula government.

“He’s got to challenge her without looking aggressive,” said Valeriano Costa, a professor of politics at Unicamp. Serra already had an image as arrogant, Costa said.

“Serra is more experienced in debates but it’s difficult and he has more pressure to perform,” said Costa.

Aug 2, 2010

Key political risks to watch in Brazil

BRASILIA, Aug 2 (Reuters) – Brazil’s presidential election in October looks less risky to investors than any other in the last 25 years in the South American powerhouse as its economy bounces back from a brief recession, but there are still investment risks to watch this year.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s former chief of staff, Dilma Rousseff, is the ruling Workers’ Party candidate to succeed him. She is tied in some polls, and in others is ahead of her main rival, Jose Serra, the former Sao Paulo state governor running for the centrist opposition PSDB party.

Most analysts say Rousseff has better chances to win as she can count on support from the hugely popular Lula and will be helped by the rebounding economy. [ID:nN24264257]

Unlike previous races, there is no clear market favorite because neither of the main contenders is expected to break with the mostly market-friendly policies in place for the past decade: a free-floating currency, inflation control and fiscal discipline. Some business leaders prefer Serra for his support of national industry and his managerial experience. But concern is growing in financial markets over his heavy-handed approach to economic policy [ID:nN29257620].

In an effort to win over centrist voters and avoid unsettling investors, Rousseff has emphasized market-friendly proposals so far in the campaign. She is also being advised by market-friendly former finance minister Antonio Palocci.

Serra, who believes the government should be active in economic affairs, has yet to spell out many specific policy proposals. However, he has called for lower interest rates and said the currency was overvalued and that the central bank needed to follow the government’s economic policy. [ID:nN10198404]

Jul 23, 2010

Brazil’s Rousseff pulls ahead in election

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazil’s ruling party candidate Dilma Rousseff has widened her lead in October’s presidential race over opposition candidate Jose Serra, a poll showed on Friday.

It is the biggest advantage any poll has so far given Rousseff, who in December trailed former Sao Paulo state governor Jose Serra by as much as 20 percentage points.

Rousseff, a career civil servant from President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s Workers’ Party, got 41 percent of voter support with 33 percent for Serra, according to the Vox Populi poll released by TV Bandeirantes.

The same poll in June showed Rousseff ahead with 40 percent support against 35 percent for Serra.

Former Environment Minister Marina Silva remained unchanged with 8 percent.

With only two and a half months left to the October 3 election, investors are closely watching to see whether either candidate can maintain a significant lead.

Over the past three months Rousseff and Serra have been in a virtual tie, with poll results fluctuating in response to their campaign advertisement on TV.

Jul 21, 2010

Brazil candidate Rousseff opposes taxing fortunes

BRASILIA, July 21 (Reuters) – Brazil’s ruling party candidate in October’s presidential election, Dilma Rousseff, said on Wednesday she saw no benefit in taxing big fortunes as some of her coalition allies have proposed.

Since the beginning of the race in April, Rousseff has been trying to shed her hard-left image and court investors. She has pledged continuity of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s mostly market-friendly policies, which have helped accelerate Brazil’s economy to growth of around 7 percent this year.

“There is no indication that taxing big fortunes results in big benefits,” Rousseff told state-owned TV Brasil in an interview to be broadcast later on Wednesday.

“It doesn’t always result in gains for society,” said Rousseff, Lula’s former chief of staff.

Several hardliners in her center-left coalition have been calling on Rousseff to include such a tax in her government platform as a way to reduce the country’s large gap between rich and poor more quickly.

Despite some progress due to fast economic growth and social welfare programs, income gaps have narrowed only marginally since Lula took office in January 2003.

Rousseff has been tied in opinion polls with former Sao Paulo State Governor Jose Serra, who is preferred by some investors for his extensive executive experience and market-friendly centrist PSDB party.

Jul 14, 2010

EU, Brazil leaders urged to push trade talks

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazilian and European business leaders urged their governments on Wednesday to accelerate talks on an ambitious trade accord, despite the euro-zone crisis and opposition from European farmers.

The European Union and South American trade block Mercosur in May relaunched talks that had been on hold for six years with the aim of creating the world’s largest free-trade zone, encompassing 750 million people and goods valued at 65 billion euros ($82 billion) a year.

The initiative faces strong opposition from farmers, environmentalists, and lawmakers in Europe.

“It’s been advancing very slowly. We need to speed things up,” Robson Andrade, head of Brazil’s CNI industry federation, said on the sidelines of an EU-Brazil summit in the capital Brasilia.

Farm lobbies in France and elsewhere in Europe have criticized a possible accord in recent weeks, warning that cheaper imports such as Brazilian ethanol or meat did not meet environmental or health standards and could wipe out local producers.

“The most difficult part as always is agriculture,” said Pierre-Alain De Smedt of the Belgian Business Federation.

“We want an ambitious accord. It’s important the politicians keep this in mind as they come under political pressure,” he added.

Jul 1, 2010

Key political risks to watch in Brazil

BRASILIA, July 1 (Reuters) – Brazil’s presidential election in October looks less risky to investors than any other in the last 25 years in the South American powerhouse as its economy bounces back from a brief recession, but there are still investment risks to watch this year.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s former chief of staff, Dilma Rousseff, is the ruling Workers’ Party candidate to succeed him. Polls show she has now overtaken her main rival, Jose Serra, the former Sao Paulo state governor running for the centrist opposition PSDB party. [ID:nN29178728]

Most analysts see Rousseff as the favorite because she can count on support from the hugely popular Lula and will be helped by the rebounding economy. [ID:nN24264257]

Unlike previous races, there is no clear market favorite because neither of the main contenders is expected to break with the mostly market-friendly policies in place for the past decade: a free-floating currency, inflation control and fiscal discipline. Some investors prefer Serra for his party’s centrist stance and his managerial experience.

In an effort to win over centrist voters and avoid unsettling investors, Rousseff has emphasized market-friendly proposals so far in the campaign.

Serra, who believes the government should be active in economic affairs, has yet to spell out many specific policy proposals. However, he recently called for lower interest rates and urged an overhaul of Brazil’s costly pension system. [ID:nN10198404]

Jun 1, 2010

Key political risks to watch in Brazil

BRASILIA, May 31 (Reuters) – Brazil’s presidential election in October looks less risky to investors than any other in the last quarter of a century and the economy has bounced back after a brief recession, but there are still investment risks to watch in Brazil this year.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s chief of staff, Dilma Rousseff, is the ruling Workers’ Party candidate to succeed him. She has closed the gap on her main rival, Jose Serra, a former Sao Paulo state Governor Jose Serra from the centrist opposition PSDB party. [ID:nN17263531]

Most analysts make Rousseff the favorite because she can count on support from the hugely popular Lula and will be helped by the rebounding economy. [ID:nN18249294]

Unlike previous elections, there is no clear market favorite because neither of the main contenders is expected to break with the mostly market-friendly policies in place for the past decade: a free-floating currency, inflation control, and fiscal discipline. Some investors prefer Serra for his party’s centrist stance and his managerial experience.

In an effort to win over centrist voters and avoid unsettling investors, Rousseff has emphasized market-friendly proposals so far in the campaign.

Serra, who believes the government should be active in economic affairs, has yet to spell out MANY specific policy proposals. However, he recently called for lower interest rates and urged an overhaul of Brazil’s costly pension system. [ID:nN10198404]

May 27, 2010

Brazil, Turkey press their Iran nuclear deal

RIO DE JANEIRO/BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazil and Turkey on Thursday called on world powers to accept their deal with Iran meant to rein in its nuclear program, but the United States dismissed their initiative as “dangerous”.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, joined by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, charged that Western powers were aggravating the conflict with Iran and had failed to negotiate in good faith.

“We did everything (the West) wanted and everything we could, now they have to say clearly whether they want to build peace or if they want to build conflict — Turkey and Brazil are for peace,” Lula told reporters as the two met in Brasilia.

They had each traveled to Tehran to broker the fuel swap deal, under which Iran agreed to send low-enriched uranium abroad as a way to counter fears that Tehran was working to make nuclear weapons, which it denies.

The deal, announced last month, was greeted with scepticism by the United States and other powers, who say Iran has failed to stick to earlier agreements. It was similar to a plan drafted by the U.N. last year which was not realized .

In Washington, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who is pressing the U.N. Security Council pass a new round of sanctions on Iran, condemned the Brazil/Turkish approach.

DEAL “BUYS TIME” – U.S.