Opinion

Reihan Salam

To win votes, the GOP should focus on jobs, not immigration

Reihan Salam
Jan 31, 2014 19:01 UTC

One of the most curious political developments in recent memory is House Speaker John Boehner’s decision to press for a new Republican immigration bill before addressing America’s bona fide jobs crisis. Immigration reform is important. Many conservatives are convinced that unless the GOP deals with the challenges facing unauthorized immigrants who have been living and working in the country for years, it will never build trust with voters with strong ties to immigrant communities. This is no small thing in a country in which 13 percent of the population is foreign-born and another 11 percent of the population has at least one foreign-born parent.

But it’s not at all clear that passing an immigration bill will suddenly lead immigrant voters and their children to flock to the GOP, not least because it is all but guaranteed that Democrats will attack the GOP for not going far enough. If Republicans offer unauthorized immigrants legal status without citizenship, Democrats will accuse them of creating millions of second-class non-citizens. And if, as seems likely, Boehner’s immigration push will lead to a substantial increase in less-skilled immigration, it will divide the right, and for good reason.

If Republicans want to build trust with voters — foreign-born and otherwise — they ought to instead pass a serious jobs bill. In his State of the Union address, President Obama made it clear that he will use raising the federal minimum wage as a wedge issue to put GOP lawmakers on the back foot, and there is at least some reason to believe that he will succeed. A Gallup survey from late last year found that 58 percent of Republicans favored a substantial minimum wage hike, a fact that has greatly complicated conservative efforts to beat back a policy they fear will dampen future job growth. The perfect populist issue has fallen into the president’s lap, and a GOP immigration reform push will do nothing to dull its effectiveness.

The president and his allies are also stepping up the pressure on extending long-term unemployment benefits. House Republicans insist that they are open to the idea of an extension if the extension is paid for through future budget cuts. That nuance has been lost as Democrats campaign on GOP indifference to the fate of jobless Americans. The irony is not lost on conservatives who believe, and are right to believe, that the Obama administration is at least partly responsible for the plight of the long-term unemployed.

The overall number of unemployed workers in the U.S. is 10.4 million. Though some share of this unemployment is frictional — the inevitable to-ing and fro-ing of workers that you’ll see in even the healthiest economic environment — much of it is not. Across the country, there are 3.8 million Americans who have been unemployed for 27 weeks or longer. Though this number has declined since December of last year, when it was 4.7 million, it remains scandalously high. And the ravages of long-term unemployment ripple out beyond the 3.8 million or so who are directly impacted, to their extended families and even their neighbors. Democrats are increasingly turning to legalistic maneuvers to address this problem. Apart from extending long-term unemployment benefits, the Obama administration wants to ban firms from discriminating against the long-term unemployed, a policy that threatens to generate more lawsuits than job growth. Yet Democrats have benefited from the fact that the GOP has failed to unite around a jobs agenda of its own.

Why New Jersey and Virginia matter to the GOP — and its future with black voters

Reihan Salam
Nov 1, 2013 19:27 UTC

Next week’s election will be an important one for the future of the GOP. In New Jersey, Republican Gov. Chris Christie is up for re-election, and by all accounts he is set to defeat his Democratic opponent, state Sen. Barbara Buono, by a wide margin. Christie is widely considered a serious candidate for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016, and his ability to win support among independents and Democrats in his home state will be a central part of his appeal.

But in Virginia, it increasingly looks as though Terry McAuliffe, an entrepreneur and investor best known as a political ally of former President Bill Clinton, will defeat Ken Cuccinelli, a staunch conservative much admired by the Tea Party right. At least some conservative activists saw Cuccinelli, who as Virginia’s attorney general played a leading role in constitutional challenges against the Affordable Care Act and other Obama administration initiatives, as a potential presidential contender. A bruising defeat against McAuliffe will put an end to such talk.

There are many things that separate Christie from Cuccinelli. Having served as governor for the better part of the last four years, Christie is a familiar figure. He began his tenure with a series of polarizing confrontations with New Jersey’s powerful public employee unions, yet he has spent the last year on a more conciliatory note, motivated in part by a desire to help his state recover from the damage wrought by Hurricane Sandy. In a heavily Democratic state, Christie has distanced himself from congressional Republicans, and he has framed himself as a pragmatic reformer who stands above the political fray. This position is particularly valuable in light of parlous state of the GOP brand. The most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll finds that the Republican party now has a 22 percent positive rating and a 53 percent negative rating across the country, and it’s a safe bet that the picture is even worse in New Jersey.

Sen. Mike Lee’s plan to bolster middle-class parents

Reihan Salam
Sep 18, 2013 15:11 UTC

On Tuesday afternoon, a small but influential slice of the inside-the-Beltway conservative intelligentsia gathered at the American Enterprise Institute, a D.C.-based conservative think tank, to hear Utah Sen. Mike Lee present his new tax reform plan, the “Family Fairness and Opportunity Tax Reform Act.” Though it is unlikely that the bill will become law, it represents genuinely new thinking about how Republicans ought to approach domestic policy. And as such, it has the potential to break the GOP out of its defensive crouch.

It is worth noting that Mike Lee isn’t exactly the most likely messenger for family-friendly tax reform. He first emerged on the national scene when he challenged three-term incumbent Sen. Bob Bennett, a Republican widely lauded for his willingness to work across the aisle, in a hard-fought primary race. Lee, a constitutional lawyer with a distinguished resume, ran as a Tea Party stalwart. As a senator, he has led the fight for a balanced budget amendment and against new gun control laws. Most recently, he has rallied Senate conservatives around the idea of defunding the Affordable Care Act, an effort that has been condemned by the Wall Street Journal editorial page and key members of the congressional Republican leadership as reckless and irresponsible. No one questions Lee’s conservative bona fides. What is new is Lee’s willingness to venture outside of his comfort zone. While many leading Republicans have insisted that conservatives do more to better the lives of middle-income voters — the bedrock of the GOP coalition — Lee is actually putting his money where his mouth is with his new tax plan.

Conservatives will find much to like in Lee’s plan. Though it is not a flat tax, an idea Lee has championed in the past, it does reduce the tax code from seven individual income tax rates to two, set at 15 percent and 35 percent. The first rate applies to income up to $87,850 for single filers and $175,700 for joint filers, and the second applies to all income above those thresholds. As of 2010, a single filer earning $87,850 would find herself in the 95th percentile of individual earners, while a married couple earning $175,700 would find themselves in the 87th percentile of married households. The plan also eliminates the taxes included in the Affordable Care Act and the Alternative Minimum Tax, the goal being to improve incentives to work and save.

Somebody find the GOP a carrot

Reihan Salam
Jan 11, 2013 21:47 UTC

As House Republicans gird themselves for battle over the debt limit, they are united by an adamantine conviction that something must be done about federal spending, and soon. The challenge Republicans face, however, is that they’ve become the party of all sticks and no carrots.

Back in 1976, Jude Wanniski, the idiosyncratic supply-side guru, published a short essay arguing that while the Democrats are the spending Santa Claus, bearing promises of more government benefits, Republicans should become the tax Santa Claus, bearing promises of tax cuts. That is famously what happened during the Reagan era.

But as the tax burden on middle-income households dwindled, middle-income swing voters started to care less about taxes and more about the cost of medical insurance, higher education, and a whole host of quality-of-life issues. President Bill Clinton exploited this dynamic by politically championing middle-income tax cuts and tax increases on high earners at the same time, a tactic that has paid dividends for Democrats ever since. Republicans have found themselves defending tax cuts for high earners while offering little if anything to middle-income voters but calls for entitlement reform. Whether or not this stance is defensible on policy grounds, it’s certainly not what Santa would do.

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