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Since British music company EMI agreed to a 2.4 billion pounds ($4.73 billion) takeover from private equity group Terra Firma in May, EMI’s long-time suitor Warner Music Group has left everyone guessing about its next move.
Warner, home to artists such as Madonna and Red Hot Chili Peppers, has been engaged in a seven-year bid battle with EMI, home to artists including Kylie Minogue and Robbie Williams (pictured left).
On June 11, Warner said it was still considering making an offer for EMI but that any bid would be pre-conditional on appropriate anti-trust clearances. Since then, they’ve been quiet.
But the clock is ticking: EMI shareholders face a June 27 deadline to accept Terra Firma’s offer.
Warner could make an eleventh hour counterbid or wait and see if the deadline is extended. It could also abandon pursuit of EMI altogether and perhaps try and buy the British group’s recorded music division off Terra Firma at a later date.
“It’s hard to conceive there will not be something from Warner beforehand,” said Bishop Cheen, senior analyst at Wachovia Capital Markets LLC.
Terra Firma’s offer values EMI at 265 pence per share but the company is trading above that — closing Monday at 269.50 pence — indicating the market expects a higher offer to emerge. EMI’s share price has been nudging lower over the past few days though, from a 274 pence a share close on June 18.
Warner’s last official bid for EMI was 260 pence a share and the big question is how high they’d be willing to go to beat Terra Firma.
“Its one in the hand or two in the bush,” said Cheen. “If you’re an EMI investor, do you want to take the Terra Firma bid and be done with it, or do you want to wait for two in the bush. That’s the question.”
If Warner were to make a higher bid, at least one analyst believes it could ultimately hurt shareholders.
“Warner will now have to pay a really onerous price, which we think will be value destructive for its shareholders,” Richard Greenfield of Pali Research said last month.

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Why wouldn’t investors just hold on to their EMI stock ? Private Equity does not want to buy it because it’s a bad company. The propects are great, and EMI could be trading at 10 times todays price in several years. So I’m not selling anything neither to PE guys nor to Warner. They’ll have to come and get it.
- Posted by Clemens