If a CEO promises to quit once a combination is completed, but checks out months before the t’s are crossed, does that suggest the deal is a lock — or perhaps on the rocks?

In the case of XM Satellite’s Hugh Panero,  who this week said he’d exit next month rather than later this year, many initially said it was a good sign. But Wedbush’s William Kidd on Thursday said its a sign XM wants to groom a new CEO fast, and not be caught flat-footed with a lame duck should the deal flop.

“If there is any subtle message to be inferred, it is that the early departure was possibly preparation for the company in the event that the merger was denied.”

In a candid moment on XM’s quarterly conference call, Panero, 51, renewed his belief that the deal will go through, but, refreshingly declined to toss out a cliche and blame the decision on say, his family.

“It was pretty obvious that the CEO slot would be taken by (Sirius CEO) Mel (Karmazin). I worked on the merger, meeting with regulators … and I felt that the merger had hit a number of milestones. Understanding there was going to be one CEO at the end of it, it was time to move on. That’s my short answer rather than to say I was going to ’spend more time with my kids’ or ‘explore other options.’”

Other highlights from XM’s conference call with analysts:

Nate Davis, XM’s COO (and Interim CEO when Panero leaves), answered a question about whether XM has a plan should the merger not go through. He said they have “some specific thoughts”: for one, control spending — like merger related legal costs.

“That won’t continue in the long run. (Also) We know that we want to find a way to continue to either be flat-or-marginally-down on programming expenses.”

If the merger goes through, it is possible that the pick-your-favorite channels options promised this week by Karmazin, might find their way into radios made for cars also, Gary said.

“As we become more (automobile centric) you can guarantee that we will be looking after our (car) partners in any of these types of products. I think that we will able to work effectively with them to make them competitive on all of those fronts.