Investors are waiting to see if E*Trade will pursue a strategic alternative, such as a deal or sale of some assets, after large losses in its mortgage business.
But buyers are getting bogged down in the problem of how to value E*Trade’s banking business, after mortgage woes have grown, according to a Monday article in the Wall Street Journal.
Fox-Pitt Kelton analyst David Trone has a solution– pay nil for E*Trade’s banking arm, and and the deal could still pay dividends for the buyer, and be a better deal than shareholders have now.
Trone, with Ameritrade and its partner TD Bank Financial in mind as buyers, estimates in a research note that a deal for E*Trade could be hatched for between $10 and $11 per share. Most, if not all of that, he says, would be in payment for E*Trade’s brokerage business.
The calculation goes like this. If Ameritrade were to buy E*Trade’s brokerage business (estimate of $10.63 per share) it could be 37 percent accretive to its fiscal 2009 earnings. Canada’s Toronto-Dominion Bank would benefit as it has a 40 percent stake in Ameritrade.
There’s more. Based on a $4.60 share price, Trone estimates that the market is ascribing a negative value to E*Trade’s banking operations, so paying nothing for them could be accretive.
And Trone points out that for shareholders, getting between $10 and $11 per share, would be more than double the current share price, with E*Trade shares closing at $4.91 today, an 80 percent drop from its year high of $26.08 per share.
That may not be the type of ’shareholder enhancement’ E*Trade had in mind when it said it could explore a deal last month, but for shareholders this might be a case of ’something is better than nothing’.
Indeed, investors were likely eager for a management update on the prospects of such a deal, but it emerged today that E*Trade has withdrawn from a financial services conference presentation being held by Fox-Pitt Kelton Cochran Caronia Waller it was scheduled to participate in later this week.
Investors are likely to read one of two things into E*Trade’s absence — it is locked in negotiations, or it is too scared to face shareholders. Based on the 6.7 percent rally E*Trade shares made late in the day, it is likely shareholders are betting on the former.
E*Trade shares shot up earlier this month when Chief Executive Mitch Caplan backed out of a scheduled presentation at a Merrill Lynch & Co banking conference in New York, which a spokesperson attributed to Caplan’s need to focus on “priorities”. While the news rallied the shares, when no deal materialized the shares again fell. Will this time be any different?