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DealZone

Behind the deals and deal-makers

11:28 November 21st, 2007

Time for AT&T-DISH tie-up has passed

Posted by: Jessica Hall
Tags: DealZone, Mediafile

att3.jpgWhile any potential acquisition of EchoStar Communications Corp. by AT&T Inc. makes little financial or strategic sense, there’s not necessarily any harm in a deal either, JPMorgan analysts said.

Some media reports have said EchoStar rejected an offer of $55 per share from AT&T at the beginning of the year, but that AT&T could be preparing a new offer of $65 per share. Yet, JPMorgan analysts said they believed the “time for a deal has passed.”

“The strategic rationale for a deal has receded and the economic slowdown seems to be taking its toll on DISH,” JPMorgan analysts said in a research report. (DISH is EchoStar’s stock symbol). “As such, we would be surprised if T’s (AT&T) appetite for a deal and what they are willing to pay has increased.”

Still, a deal wouldn’t necessarily hurt AT&T, analysts said. An all-cash deal would modestly hurt earnings in year one and boost earnings after that. An all-stock deal would hurt AT&T’s earnings by 5 percent in the first year, with dilution shrinking over time, JP Morgan said.

“The basis for a deal could be as simple as: they may decide at some point in the future that DISH is strategic; a change of (White House) admin may make deals more difficult for the next four years; there is no impact to T’s financials … so why not buy it, just in case?” JPMorgan said.

With AT&T’s new Chairman Randall Stephenson in charge, though, JPMorgan said that kind “why not?” rationale seems unlikely.

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