TPG Capital co-founder David Bonderman ended his private equity speech in Dubai on Tuesday with a story. The point of the story was to remind everyone how imperfect financial models are, and how lousy they are at peering into the future. The data may be great, but then doesn’t mean much when the so-called cataclysmic event shows up, and you’re unprepared.So here was Bonderman’s story. The tall, lanky buyout legend with stringy hair and a penchant for colorful socks, told a tale about a turkey.

“Here’s a story about a turkey,” he said, who every morning had corn for breakfast. The farmer would wake up, go out to the turkey, and feed it corn. This went on every day.

“The turkey had perfect data,” Bonderman noted.
 
Then, on the 1,000th day, which happened to coincide with Thanksgiving, the farmer strangled the turkey and had it for dinner.
 
What’s the connection?

“Financial models are perfect predictors of the past.”

(Picture: Reuters file)