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DealZone

Behind the deals and deal-makers

Archive for March, 2008

March 26th, 2008

Not all bloggers are poor

Posted by: Kenneth Li

cash.jpgBloggers, don't quit your day jobs -- unless you're Gawker's Nick Denton or Perez Hilton. 24/7 Wall St's Douglas A. McIntyre takes a stab at guesstimating blog valuations, looking at unique visitors, page views, ad rates and profit margins, among other factors.

McIntyre is the first to admit it's hardly an exact science: "In short, the task of valuing the largest blogs is impossible. That makes it much more interesting than writing about the P/E at General Electric."

A handful of the top blogs:

  • Gawker: $150 million
  • MacRumors: $85 million
  • Huffington Post: $70 million
  • PerezHilton: $48 million
  • TechCrunch: $36 million
  • ArsTechnica: $15 milion
  • Drudge Report: $10 million
  • Mashable: $10 million
  • GigaOm: $8.4 million
  • Boing Boing: $8 million
  • Silicon Alley Insider: $5.4 million
  • ReadWriteWeb: $5 million
  • Paidcontent.org: $3.5 million
March 26th, 2008

Juggling Clear Channel options

Posted by: Jessica Hall

juggle1.jpgSince Clear Channel’s prospects are decidedly unclear, option traders are playing the volatility angle, said Rebecca Engmann Darst, equity options analyst at Interactive Brokers Group.

“This morning’s news that radio broadcaster Clear Channel’s long-bedraggled takeover by T.H. Lee Partners and Bain Capital may indeed be dead air sent its shares plummeting,” Darst said.

“With more than 300,000 options trading in the first two hours of the market, Clear Channel is the most active ticker on our platform by a long shot,” Darst said.

It looks like April “strangles” — a spread trade involving both puts and calls at different prices — are the preferred vehicle for option traders on Wednesday, Darst said.

“In this case, traders are both buying and selling Clear Channel April put strikes as low as $20 and April calls as high as $37.50 and at every strike in between,” Darst said.

If traders are buying the strangle, then they are expecting big share price movement outside the range of these strike prices. If they are selling the strangle, traders are likely taking advantage of a high implied volatility environment and cashing in on the expensive option premiums as they bet that shares will remain rangebound, she said.

Given the fact that Clear Channel shares have traded consistently below the $39.20 offer price ever since the takeover deal was announced, it’s obvious that the market has never been comfortable with its valuation, Darst said.

“And the ambivalence is no less abated with the original deal now apparently in its death throes,” Darst said.

She also noted that out of Clear Channel’s 966,000 option contracts still outstanding, more than 40 percent is concentrated in April puts at strikes $25 to $32.50. Shares of Clear Channel shed $5.19, down 15.9 percent, to $27.37 on the New York Stock Exchange.

(Reporting by Doris Frankel)
(PHOTO: Reuters)

March 26th, 2008

Cable, Sprint up ante on rivals

Posted by: Kenneth Li

cellphone-guy.jpgTwo sectors may be getting a new lease on life after the Wall Street Journal reported news that a handful of the top U.S. cable operators are exploring a joint venture with Sprint Nextel and Clearwire to create a national high-speed wireless network to fight off the telcos for subscribers.

Without a big infusion of cash, WiMax technology could be a non-starter in the U.S. So far, Sprint has planned to introduce the service in three markets.

Expanding beyond that may prove a tough sell for Sprint shareholders who had widely criticized its commitment last year to spend $5 billion on WiMax by 2010. Sprint is also struggling to keep its existing customers from leaving.

But with an estimated $3 billion in potential investment from Comcast, Time Warner Cable, Bright House Networks, Google and Intel, Sprint and Clearwire are poised to make life uncomfortable for AT&T, Verizon, DirecTV and EchoStar.

The cable industry has also dabbled in offering wireless services over the past few years, notably with Sprint. But with wireless penetration in the United States at over 80 percent, coming to market with a me-too offering won't cut it anymore.

Is this the dawn of a new broadband arms race?

(WSJ)

Keep an eye on:

  • Banks to Clear Channel: No way. (Reuters)
  • Motorola to spin off handset division. (Reuters)
  • Take-Two to Electronic Arts: Still NO. (Reuters)
  • Fewer reporters on the U.S. presidential campaign trail? Blame the blood-letting in the newspaper industry. (NYT)

(Photo: Reuters)

March 26th, 2008

Icahn cleaves Motorola in two

Posted by: Chris Kaufman

icahn1.jpgMotorola said it would split into two separate publicly traded entities, following intense pressure by activist investor Carl Icahn (pictured). The split into a mobile devices business and a broadband and mobility services business is to take place in 2009 and will take the form of a tax-free distribution. The stock rose more than 10 percent on the news in pre-market action. Icahn said on Monday he was suing Motorola to force it to hand over documents related to its money-losing mobile devices business. Icahn has been insistent that shareholders need “extensive access” to Motorola’s books. Whether he’ll call off the dogs now is anyone’s guess.

The $20 billion leveraged buyout of U.S. radio operator Clear Channel Communications is in jeopardy because banks are balking at the financing. A source familiar with the situation says banks appear unwilling to account for any losses on the loans behind the deal, but private equity buyers still want to do a deal. Clear Channel and its private equity pals may go to court to force lenders to complete the leveraged buyout, the New York Times said, citing people briefed on the talks. If it goes off-air, the Clear Channel deal would be among the highest profile of a series of leveraged buyouts to have failed since the credit crisis began last year. Still on the horizon are the $6.1 billion buyout of Penn National Gaming and the $34.1 billion buyout of Canada’s biggest telecom company BCE. BCE said its deal remains on track.

On the strategic side, Brazil’s Vale, the world’s largest iron ore miner, said talks to buy Swiss rival Xstrata had failed and that Vale would look at other potential takeover targets. Xstrata shares, unsurprisingly, tanked on the news. Though Vale’s chief said the $90 billion price tag was the killer, the deal has long been plagued by disagreement over marketing rights. Xstrata’s main shareholder, trading house Glencore International, holds the marketing rights to a large chunk of Xstrata’s output in nickel, copper and other metals. Glencore was looking to expand its rights in the merged company, something that Vale had previously said would be difficult to overcome given Vale’s relationship with its clients.

Banking heavily on being able to take Grand Theft Auto IV game to the bank, Take-Two Interactive Software has recommended shareholders reject a $26-per-share takeover offer from rival video-game publisher Electronic Arts. It kept to its line that it would explore strategic alternatives including a combination with third parties or with EA, or remaining independent. EA took its $2 billion all-cash offer hostile nearly two weeks ago after Take-Two rebuffed the bid, saying it underestimated the strength of Grand Theft Auto, widely expected to be the best-selling video game this year. Take-Two earlier this month forecast quarterly earnings above Wall Street estimates, citing better-than-expected advance orders for “Grand Theft Auto IV”.

JPMorgan Chase executives have told Bear Stearns employees they will integrate the firm’s prime brokerage and global trade processing businesses, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing people familiar with the situation. The newspaper called the moves among the easiest decisions for JPMorgan, which is buying Bear in a transaction now valuing the investment bank at roughly $10.02 per share. The businesses employ about 800 of Bear’s 14,000 employees, the newspaper said.

Morgan Stanley has shelved the sale of its 34.3 percent stake in mainland brokerage China International Capital Corp, the South China Morning Post reports, as offers from bidders came in low. Private equity firms TPG, JC Flowers and Bain Capital had offered to pay $500 million for the stake. Morgan Stanley hoped to get offers around $1 billion, the paper said. Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong declined to comment. CICC also had no comment on the report. Last month, the Wall Street Journal reported that bids had fallen short.

Malaysia’s biggest lender, Maybank, is set to buy Bank Internasional Indonesia for $2.7 billion, gaining a significant foothold in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy. Under criticism by investors for moving too slowly to expand outside its home market, Maybank stunned analysts by saying it would pay $1.5 billion for 56 percent of Indonesia’s sixth-largest lender — a 23 percent premium to Tuesday’s share price. Maybank said it was buying the stake from Singapore state investor Temasek and South Korea’s Kookmin Bank, and that it would spend an additional $1.2 billion to buy the remaining 44 percent of BII from minority shareholders. “This is the highest ever for a banking acquisition in Indonesia,” said Agus Pramono, analyst at DBS Vickers in Jakarta, noting the premium was steep by a number of industry benchmarks.

South Korea says it has started the sale of Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering, the world’s No. 3 shipbuilder, by putting up a 50.4 percent stake worth $3.6 billion at current market prices. The long-awaited sale is expected to attract a host of bidders, ranging from steel makers looking to lock in a big buyer of their product to conglomerates seeking investments. Foreign investors may also join local bidders’ consortia, although an outright sale to a foreign shipbuilder is unlikely as Daewoo operates a defense business, analysts said.

Caterpillar, the maker of construction equipment, said it would take a controlling stake in its Japanese joint venture with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in a bid to add revenue from Asia. The transaction calls for the venture, Shin Caterpillar Mitsubishi Ltd, to redeem half of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ shares for about $499 million. Caterpillar would end up with about 67 percent of the venture. Caterpillar said it planned to rename the business Caterpillar Japan when the first phase of the transaction closes, expected in the third quarter.

Elsewhere…

* The boards of Brazil’s BM&F commodities and futures exchange and the Bovespa stock exchange said they had approved the merger of the firms.

*Ford Motor Co is expected to confirm the sale of its British luxury brands Jaguar and Land Rover to India’s Tata Motors for over $2 billion later today.

*Australia’s Perilya bid A$294 million ($270 million) for fellow zinc miner CBH Resources, aiming to unite their ageing mines as they try to diversify to counter a sagging zinc price.

*Power producer NRG Energy said it formed a new company with Japan’s Toshiba to develop and build new nuclear energy projects in North America.

*TV Azteca, Mexico’s second-largest broadcaster, said it bought about 70 percent of Guatemala’s Latitud TV to tap into the broadcast and cable television markets in the small Central American country.

* Procter & Gamble said it was buying high-end hair-care products maker Frederic Fekkai & Co in a move to expand its portfolio in the faster-growing, higher-margin beauty business.

*Irish telecoms billionaire Denis O’Brien has raised his stake in Independent News & Media but traders discounted it as the reason for a 10 percent jump in the newspaper publisher’s Dublin share price.

*CME Group said it is acquiring Credit Market Analysis Ltd, a provider of credit derivatives data, as the exchange looks to bolster its business in the fast-growing market.

*Norwegian shipbuilder Aker Yards will sell 70 percent of three merchant vessel yards to Russian-owned investment firm FLC West for 291.9 million euros ($450 million).

*Enerplus Resources Fund said it may sell its 15 percent stake in Total SA’s planned C$9 billion ($8.8 billion) Joslyn oil sands project in order to concentrate on its own development in the oil-rich sands of northern Alberta.

* China Shipping Development plans to spend 23 billion yuan ($3.3 billion) to buy 59 vessels over the next five years, more than doubling its capacity to ride an anticipated upswell in global trade, its top executive said.

*Government-run State Bank of India said it had completed an acquisition of 91 percent in an Indian factoring services company for 5.2 billion rupees ($130 million).

*French utilities group Suez said it had shortlisted European power groups EDF, ENI and EON as potential buyers of its majority stake in Belgium’s Distrigas.

*JPMorgan has acquired the carbon offsetting company ClimateCare, the U.S. investment bank said.

*Hochtief says Spain’s ACS does not plan to take over Hochtief, respects its independence.

March 25th, 2008

With only the shirts on their backs

Posted by: Adam Pasick

bear-stearns-shirt.JPGBear Stearns shares are trading well above $10 after JPMorgan quintupled its offer for the troubled investment bank, and even the most prosaic pieces of memorabilia are keeping pace on eBay.

Following up on our post from last week, Reuters’ Jennifer Ablan reports that a used extra-large men’s T-shirt, blue, with a white Bear Stearns logo sold for a whopping $151.76 on Monday evening.

The T-shirt seller, Jennifer Cseplo of Dublin, Ohio, said her husband got the shirt as a gift four years ago and wore it to work out in.

“I thought I would get $20 for it and be happy. This is pretty crazy,” Cseplo said.

Click here for the full story.

March 25th, 2008

Big is the new small

Posted by: Michele Gershberg

karmazin-smile.jpgWho needs competition when you have a nice big merger to complete? After 13 months of Congressional haggling that would have put John McCain to shame, Sirius chief Mel Karmazin won U.S. Department of Justice approval for his $5 billion marriage with XM Satellite Radio.
    
Sure they're the only two subscription radio operators, but with all those iTunes downloads and Web radio personalities, there's no need to think anyone will suffer with Howard Stern and Oprah Winfrey in their exclusive hands.   
    
Most expect the FCC will come through with the final green-light for XM and Sirius to close the deal, and then the real work on actually making money from satellite will begin.
    
We're still a little stuck on the regulatory landscape that seems to err on the side of bigness, from Verizon and AT&T's billion-dollar wireless spectrum wins, to a push from underdogs like Microsoft and Google to use the blank spaces of TV spectrum for mobile Internet and the ability to even contemplate a scenario in which Rupert Murdoch buys Newsday.
    
Let the games begin.

Reuters, Deal Journal, Silicon Alley Insider

Keep an eye on:

  • Google unveiled plans for a new generation of wireless devices to operate on soon-to-be-vacant television airwaves, and sought to alleviate fears that this might interfere with TV broadcasts or wireless microphones.  (Reuters)
  • Fox Broadcasting asked U.S. regulators to reconsider indecency fines the government imposed last month on 13 Fox television stations for airing episodes of a reality TV show in 2003.  (Reuters)
  • Hulu video site looks great, but in terms of consistently good service, not so much. (Silicon Alley Insider)
  • The CEO of Sony BMG Music Entertainment tells the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (in German!) that the company is developing an online music subscription service that would give users unlimited access to its music and be compatible with a host of digital music players.
    (Associated Press)

(Photo: Reuters / Mel Karmazin)

March 25th, 2008

The Big Sale at Ford

Posted by: Chris Kaufman

Logos of the carmakers Jaguar and Land Rover are pictured during the first media day of the 78th Geneva Car Show at the Palexpo in Geneva

 Ford’s soon-to-be-signed sale of Jaguar and Land Rover to Tata Motors could bring in as much as $2.65 billion, according to local TV, or $2 billion according to the FT. Though the stage appears to be set, a Tata Group spokesman told Reuters discussions were ongoing. Tata Motors, India’s top vehicle maker maker of trucks and busses, received union backing for the deal and was named the front-runner in January by Ford, which is seeking to shore up its balance sheet and reduce debt.

JPMorgan’s revised takeover offer for Bear Stearns is a “high risk transaction,” Punk Ziegel analyst Richard Bove said after JPMorgan boosted its all-stock offer five-fold to about $10 a share. “What is most disturbing about this deal is that it uses a great deal of Morgan capital to buy a company that is losing market share, in a series of businesses that are declining in size, with a top management team that is best described as sclerotic,” the veteran bank watcher wrote in a note to clients. “Investors believe that JPMorgan is underbidding for Bear Stearns… I do not. … Bear Stearns is a deeply troubled company which would have no value if the Federal Reserve had not stepped in to bail it out.”

China’s state-owned aluminum giant Chinalco - which teamed up last month with Alcoa to buy a $14 billion stake in Rio Tinto - may spend more than $4 billion this year on acquisitions at home and abroad, according to the South China Morning Post. That’s no great pile of investment. BHP has bid $147 billion for Rio. Though the company did not specify targets, it said non-ferrous metals would be the main focus.

Top Chinese chipmaker Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp said it was in advanced talks to sell shares to a strategic investor, sparking a 16 percent surge in its shares. The news comes one year after media reports that the company hired two investment banks to find a strategic partner in a search that ultimately failed to win a suitor. SMIC’s market capitalization is around $1.1 billion.

Singapore state investor Temasek is close to selling its 42 percent stake in Bank Internasional Indonesia for over $1 billion, but not to HSBC. Europe’s biggest bank dropped out of the race, leaving Malayan Banking, Bank of China and late entrant Kookmin of South Korea to duke it out.

March 24th, 2008

Cramer too opinionated for Fox

Posted by: Chris Kaufman

cramerlatifah.jpgThe Bear Stearns meltdown is providing new fodder for the war between Fox Business Channel and CNBC, with Fox taking out ads in the News Corp-owned Wall Street Journal to attack the credibility of CNBC star Jim Cramer.On March 11, Cramer proclaimed the brokerage was “fine” and “not in trouble”: seemingly the perfect “gotcha” quote in the wake of the stock’s collapse and subsequent takeover by JPMorgan.

Cramer has since argued — rather convincingly, if you watch the video — that he was referring to the safety of keeping money in Bear Stearns accounts and investments, not to the relative merits of buying Bear Stearns shares. But that didn’t stop Fox Business Channel from running an ad in the Journal and other newspapers on Monday that listed Cramer’s quotes under “famous last words” from the likes of UK Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain. (President Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” banner didn’t make an appearance.)

This isn’t the first time the News Corp empire has taken on the king of business TV booyah. Late in 2000, it settled a lawsuit against Cramer, after TheStreet.com, which Cramer helped to create, canceled a program on the network. Cramer was accused to touting shares in his own company, in which he owned a 13 percent stake. The fracas led to TheStreet.com pulling out of a TV deal with Fox News, and Fox News suing to try to force Cramer to continue appearing on the network.

The half-page ad in the Journal probably caught a lot more eyeballs than Fox Business did this morning. As of January, with only a few months of broadcasting under its belt, early estimates showed Fox Business Network drawing an estimated 6,000 average weekday viewers. Twenty-year old CNBC had 283,000 on an average weekday in the same period.

After JPMorgan raised its offer for Bear on Monday, Cramer opined that “the worst is over.” Will the usually optimistic Fox Business Channel now counter with “the worst is yet to come?”

Photo: Actress Queen Latifah jokes around with CNBC analyst Jim Cramer during an interview at the NASDAQ Marketsite in New York.

March 24th, 2008

More than the Bear Minimum

Posted by: Chris Kaufman

bear32.jpgInvestors who picked up Bear Stearns’ stock above the JPMorgan offer price of $2 a share aren’t looking so crazy. The New York Times reports that offer may be boosted to $10 a share, and the stock has been heading that way in pre-market trading. JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon needs to make sure the deal goes through, in part because his bank is on the hook to guarantee Bear’s trades even if shareholders vote down the deal.. However, the Fed is balking at the new price, and the renegotiated merger could potentially be postponed or even collapse, the Times said.

Biofuels haven’t completely lost their luster. Carlyle Group and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts are reportedly among several private equity firms keen on British biofuel additives producer Infineum. The U.K.’s Telegraph reports the Royal Dutch Shell- and ExxonMobil-owned company is valued at up to $3.87 billion. It says Apollo Management, BC Partners, Cinven, and Vestar are the other firms planning to submit bids. Infineum employs 1,600 people globally and is undergoing a strategic review initiated by its shareholders and handled by bankers at JPMorgan, the paper said.

Italian airline investors who were hoping for a few rousing encores to Alitalia’s epic sale process can rest a bit easier today. The chairman of Air One said his company was ready to make a new offer but needed three weeks to study the ailing airliner’s books. His comments came a day after Silvio Berlusconi vowed to veto Air France-KLM’s deal to buy Alitalia if he won power in next month’s elections. Italy’s economy minister Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa, who is overseeing the sale, and Berlusconi’s main rival for the prime minister’s post, Walter Veltroni, have said any new offer must be made in a matter of days, not weeks.

March 22nd, 2008

Is CNET losing the war?

Posted by: Anupreeta Das

dictionary2.jpgIn the war of words between CNET and its biggest shareholder, a group led by hedge fund Jana Partners, the two sides might as well be speaking in different tongues.

Jana proclaims that its motives are driven by a desire to rescue CNET — best known for tech-news site News.com, which has been hit by stiff competition from blogs — from irrelevance.

CNET prefers to speak the language of corporate bylaws that it believes will protect the company from unwanted attention, despite a recent legal setback that it plans to appeal.

But Jana seems to have understood perfectly CNET chief Neil Ashe’s recent letter to employees, where he called the dissidents “opportunistic shareholders” and labeled the proxy fight a chess match. As blogger Michael Arrington — whose TechCrunch is a big thorn in CNET’s side, according to Dealbook — reported, Jana would rather get rid of Ashe.