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DealZone

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15:18 May 23rd, 2008

Option traders clink glasses over potential BUD-InBev link

Posted by: Jessica Hall
Tags: DealZone, Shop Talk

beer2.jpgAs the long-rumored deal between Belgian brewer InBev NV and Anheuser-Busch inched closer to reality, options traders celebrated. Some even hoped for a drawn-out battle.

Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers Group in Greenwich, Connecticut noted that Friday’s surge in Anheuser Busch’s share price indicated a willingness by option investors to brace for a hostile battle if friendly negotiations falter.

“It’s becoming increasingly apparent that this would not be a straight forward collaboration between the two. It could be friendly, but there are big cultural divides between the two companies that would need to be addressed,” Wilkinson said. “The notable call activity in BUD perhaps goes straight to the heart to the matter and addressses the purported $65 price tag that is being floated in the media today.”

Investors often turn to calls, which give the right to buy the company’s shares at a given price and time, hoping to profit from share price appreciation. Late on Friday, roughly 255,000 calls compared to 40,000 puts changed hands in Anheuser Busch, nine times the normal volume, according to option analytics firm Trade Alert.

“So now option investors are snapping up June, July and September $60 calls, allowing them to buy BUD shares at a fixed cost of $60 piece, in the hopes that this may turn hostile, he said.

Wilkinson said these calls would be profitable if either of two things happen. One, investors jump on the bandwagon looking for takeover gains in Anheuser Busch shares. Secondly, a battle for control of Anheuser Busch between the existing management and InBev could easily increased the perceived volatililty of the share price.

Even if the share price stands still, a rise in its options implied volatility, a measure of uncertainty, could boost the price of the call option, Wilkinson said.

“So any continued rise in Anheuser Busch shares, particularly coupled with a rise in its projected volatility, would be a double whammy for option traders.”

(Reporting by Doris Frankel in Chicago)

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