DealZone

Herd on the Street

June 27, 2008

Men herd cows and calves belonging to the Hogan family after branding near BoulderOnce upon a time, bank analysts were uniformly upbeat on investment banks. “Sell” ratings were nearly unheard of, and potholes in balance sheets were never as big as the huge, routine earnings beats. Now, with Goldman Sachs’s sector u-turn perhaps at the apex, there is plenty of mud to go around. Today’s hit list includes Barclays, the recipient of 4.5 billion pounds in balance-sheet aid this week. Citigroup says Britain’s third-biggest bank may need to raise a further 9 billion pounds and could take more significant write-downs. Lehman Brothers analyst Roger Freeman took aim at Merrill Lynch, saying the big broker will probably see $5.4 billion of write-downs in the second quarter, mainly from its exposure to monolines. Freeman raised his write-down view by $3 billion for Merrill, making his estimate the highest among Wall Street analysts.

Merger activity in the United States dropped 29 percent in the second quarter, faring better than the 40 percent global slump, as corporations filled the void left by buyout firms and targeted big consumer brands such as Anheuser-Busch and Wrigley. “Strategic buyers see an opportunity here due to the absence of the financial buyers. For the last 24 months, prior to the downturn, strategic buyers were getting outbid by financial buyers. That’s not happening now,” said Bob Filek, a partner with PricewaterhouseCoopers’ transaction services. During the first half of the year, private equity deal volume dropped 85 percent in the U.S. and 76 percent globally, according to Thomson Reuters data.

A couple more European banks have increased their China exposure. Deutsche Bank signed a deal with Shanxi Securities to set up an investment banking venture, a source with knowledge of the deal said on Friday. Deutsche planned to take 33 percent of the envisioned Beijing venture, the most allowed. Beijing this year re-opened its coveted but shuttered securities industry to foreign firms after a hiatus of more than a year to let local players merge and strengthen. Several banks, including BNP Paribas, have since expressed an interest in setting up local ventures. Chinese stock markets have shed nearly half their value this year, but foreign banks remain keen on securing a foothold there with an eye on the longer term. Royal Bank of Scotland has won approval from Chinese regulators to buy a nearly 20 percent stake in Suzhou Trust as it expands in corporate banking and wealth management services in China, sources with direct knowledge of the situation said. Suzhou Trust is a mid-sized trust and investment firm.

Other deals of the day:

* French insurer Groupama said it had bought Turkish insurers Guven Sigorta and Guven Hayat for 350 million lira ($287 million) from the TTKMB association of agricultural credit cooperatives.

* Telstra, Australia’s largest telephone firm, expects strong revenue and profit growth at its newly acquired Chinese online advertising websites.

* Mexico’s KOF, the world’s second-largest bottler of Coca-Cola drinks, said it acquired Brazilian soda maker and brewer Refrigerantes Minas Gerais Ltda for $364.1 million.

* New Zealand dairy cooperative Fonterra and National Foods have had talks about a possible joint bid for Australia’s Dairy Farmers, which is valued at up to A$1 billion ($961.5 million), a source familiar with the situation said.

* Russian mid-sized bank InvestTorgBank said its Russian owners had sold just under 40 percent of the bank in two stakes for a total of 5 billion roubles ($213 million).

* Australian-listed miner Herald Resources advised its shareholders to decide themselves on which of two rival takeover bids to accept.

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