Deloitte’s Energy and Resources group says M&A in these sectors could return to “pre-recession levels” by 2011. In particular, it says the rise of big state-backed rivals is putting pressure on large mining groups, in much the same way Big Oil came under pressure a decade ago. From the group’s 2010 predictions report:

“During 2009, mining M&A has been led by the junior or mid-level players, which have to consolidate if they want to stay alive and not be swallowed up by the bigger firms. Indeed, many anticipate that the mining sector will continue to consolidate until there are a handful of supermajor firms like there are in oil & gas.

“Large mining companies will increasingly need to buy rivals and subsequently sell off assets to gain synergies if they are to compete with state-owned companies, particularly those from China.

“These conditions mirror those encountered by large oil companies a decade ago, when massive consolidation swept the industry in response to the rise of national oil companies (NOCs) such as Saudi Aramco, Gazprom,Petrobras, and others.”

But what are the deals? Anglo-Xstrata is off (for now), as is BHP-Rio. Maybe it’s just a matter of time. Anyhow, in oil and power the team say:

“Apart from the oil supermajors, consolidation will be likely across sectors. Oil & gas independents will be possible targets for reserve-hungry majors but also potential beneficiaries of portfolio rationalization among larger players.

“Power and utility companies will likely look at M&A activity to bolster their strategic positions, provide access to markets, and to raise cash for capital improvements.”

Get the full report here.

“You wonder if your chance will ever come or if you’re stuck in square one.”

When I heard about GM keeping its Opel unit, that line from a song by British band Coldplay came to my mind. After all those long nights of paltering on job cuts and money, GM was having a change of heart.

The sale of Opel to a group led by Canadian car parts maker Magna — announced in September — was widely considered a done deal. Turns out, it was less done than more. Citing improving business conditions and the strategic importance of Opel, GM decided it would be better to alienate the German government that provided it with a loan to sweeten the sale of the unit to Magna than to lose the business. GM said it would repay the rest of the 1.5 billion euro ($2.2 billion) bridge loan if Berlin requested. The loan helped save Opel from being sucked into GM’s dip into bankruptcy this year.

“This is a black day for Opel,” an employee, who declined to be named, said in front of the company’s headquarters in Ruesselsheim, near Frankfurt. German government officials were said to be seething, as were the Russians, who’s Sperbank had tied up with Magna to do the deal. But not all of Europe was angry. British unions welcomed the news. “It is fantastic news for the UK and right that General Motors does not break up its family and instead retains ownership of (Opel sister brand) Vauxhall,” said Tony Woodley, joint general secretary of the Unite union.

Analysts say big questions remain about what GM will do with Opel when consumer-friendly car scrapping schemes expire. At that point, will it be back to square one?

General Motors abandons a long-expected sale of Opel, saying it is now keeping its European arm rather than selling it to a group led by Canada’s Magna.

Goldman Sachs has agreed to sell half of its holdings in Shineway Group, China’s top meat processor for $150 million, earning five times its investment from a 2006 deal.

For more on these stories, and all the rest of the latest deal-related news from Reuters, click here.

And here’s some picks from the papers:

* Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N) has joined Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) in a bid to buy $3 billion in tax credits from mortgage giant Fannie Mae, says the Wall Street Journal.

* A settlement is near in a lawsuit that could have blocked eBay Inc (EBAY.O) from selling a majority stake in Web phone service Skype to Index Ventures and other investors for $1.9 billion, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Some cheering news on an otherwise tough day for UBS - the Swiss bank has bagged key roles for both Lloyds and RBS, as the two British banks agree to a massive shake-up that involves taking 31 billion pounds more of government money. As Victoria Howley and Daisy Ku wrote earlier:

“UBS AG (UBSN.VX) has taken key roles on two landmark deals to shore up British banks — landing the Swiss bank a welcome boost in fees and prestige on the same day it shocked the market with worse-than-expected results.

“UBS is working alongside Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAC.N) to raise 13.5 billion pounds ($22 billion) for Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY.L) in the world’s largest rights issue.

“It is also working with Morgan Stanley (MS.N) to advise Royal Bank of Scotland Plc (RBS.L) on its participation in the UK government’s Asset Protection Scheme (APS). [ID:nL3540088]

“UBS’s advisory team is led by Alex Wilmot-Sitwell, co-chief executive of the investment bank, and Chris Fox, a managing director in the bank’s London financial institutions group.

“Lloyds is paying 500 million pounds in fees and expenses, of which 190 million pounds ($309 million) will go to the six banks underwriting the rights issue — UBS and Merrill alongside Citi (C.N), Goldman Sachs (GS.N), HSBC (HSBA.L) and JPMorgan Cazenove (JPM.N).

“As joint sponsors and global co-ordinators, UBS and Merrill are likely to earn more than the other four, implying payouts of more than 32 million pounds each.”

For the full story, click here.

For more on UBS honcho Wilmot-Sitwell, see this profile in the Times of London from April, with nuggets such as the fact his father is credited with inventing the “dawn raid”.

Elsewhere, Legal Week magazine has the skinny on the “Magic Circle” law firms working for RBS, Lloyds and the Treasury.

Following in the greatest of capitalist traditions, the Oracle of Omaha announced plans to buy up the shares he doesn’t already own in one of the country’s biggest railroads, Burlington Northern Santa Fe. And in an egalitarian, if unexpected, move, he said he would split his Class B stock to the tune of 50-to-1, making it possible for just about anyone to own Berkshire Hathaway’s traditionally lofty shares.

The railroad purchase is a bet on the future of America, Buffett said, and it’s his biggest acquisition ever. It values the railroad at $34 billion, and the price of $100 a share is a premium of nearly 32 percent. The premium vaults the railroad into the top spot by market cap, surpassing Union Pacific.

Buffett also owns stakes in other railroads, so it will be interesting to see if his move stirs any antitrust comments from Washington. Idiomatically, there is something profoundly rural in the Americana of Buffett’s latest bet; much more so than Berkshire Hathaway’s mainstay insurance business.

Lloyds and Royal Bank of Scotland, Britain’s two largest retail lenders, have ageed to sell hundreds of branches and key businesses to appease EU concerns over state aid and competition.

For more on these stories, and all the rest of the latest deal-related news from Reuters, click here.

And here’s some picks from the papers:

* French investment company Wendel (MWDP.PA) has started looking for “modest” acquisitions, its new chief executive Frederic Lemoine tells the Financial Times.

* Russian-born tycoon Len Blavatnik has bought British cinema distribution business Icon Group, which owns rights to around 500 films including the Oscar-winning Dances with Wolves, Russian business daily Vedomosti says.

* Over at the New York Times’s DealBook blog, the site’s “Deal Professor” searches for themes in the M&A market, scrutinising the nine big deals announced in October.

A bitter U.S. tax row has hit UBS harder than many investors thought and the Swiss wealth management giant is still losing more rich client money than what it manages to attract, its disappointing third-quarter results showed.

UBS shares tanked and the data suggest turnaround maestro Oswald Gruebel may have to work a bit harder to bring home the profit that will convince the super rich to stick around.

“Reputation is a fragile dimension, painstaking to build but easily broken. It will take a more than persuasive convincing for wealthy clients to fully perceive the firm as a safe haven again, even though there are positive shoots of normality returning,” said Cubillas Ding, senior analyst at international financial research and consulting firm Celent.

Will the arrival of Merrill Lynch veteran Robert McCann, hired to restore trust in UBS’ battered American wealth franchise, improve things?

Photo credit: The U.S. flag flies outside the U.S. headquarters of Swiss bank UBS in New York August 4, 2009.  REUTERS/Brendan McDermid (UNITED STATES BUSINESS)

More consolidation may be coming to the world of private equity lenders. Debt-laden Allied Capital solved its long-standing problems last week when it sold itself to Ares Capital. Rival American Capital, once an S&P 500 component but now struggling for survival, could be the next takeover target.

But some investors wonder if Allied got a raw deal. Ares paid $3.47 a share in stock for a company that had a book value of $7.49 in June. One law firm has already launched a “shareholder investigation“. Similarly, American Capital’s shares trade below $3, compared with a book value of $8.76 at the end of June.

Ares Capital is one of the rare healthy players in the field. It has a strong balance sheet and minimal liquidity concerns, and it has managed to pay a dividend throughout the worst U.S. recession since the Great Depression. For an Allied shareholder used to a continuous flow of bad news, swapping that stake for an investment in a healthy company must seem like a good move.

Like Allied, American Capital has suffered as the recession reduced the value of the companies it invested in. As a result, it’s gotten harder to sell them except at distressed prices. That value reduction is a big blow for a cash-starved company that has already defaulted on $2.3 billion of debt.

Both American Capital and Allied have sold portfolio companies at heavy discounts to their purchase prices. Now with equity markets sharply up from their doomsday-scenario lows in March, American Capital is on an aggressive selling spree. Recently it sold components distributor Imperial Supplies to W.W. Grainger and life sciences equipment maker Axygen BioScience to Corning.

Unfortunately for American Capital, it may not have all that many more companies in its portfolio to sell at decent prices. Its best bet may be to find a healthy suitor for itself so it can return some capital to shareholders before it’s too late.

– Anurag Kotoky

It looks like Kraft CEO Irene Rosenfeld is getting ready to play hardball with her reluctant target, British chocolate maker Cadbury.

Cadbury investor Mario Gabelli will be disappointed in the short term - he wanted a small kiss from Irene after all - but a formal offer from the North American food group sets in motion an 88-day process under UK takeover rules.

That should give Kraft plenty of time to sweeten its offer to something starting with an eight - the 800p per share bar regarded by many as the minimum price needed to tempt Cadbury to the negotiating table.

Kraft is expected to post earnings of 48 cents a share for the third-quarter, up from 44 cents a year earlier, according to analysts’ estimates, and good results are expected to strengthen its hand in the ensuing battle with Cadbury.

It’s time for those high-profile bankers working for Cadbury to start sharpening the defence. It’s backed by the trio that ran last year’s demerger of its U.S. softs drinks business, as I wrote earlier here.

Like SocGen before them, UBS strategists are looking forward to a pickup in M&A next year.

From a note published on Monday:

“We expect 2009 to mark the trough in global M&A transactions and for activity to pick up in 2010 and beyond. For FY2010, globally we expect M&A activity in the region of $2.5-2.7trl, an increase of 15% on current annualised run rate for 2009 and close to levels last seen in mid 2004-05. The biggest driver of an increase in activity is likely to be the increase in risk appetite in equity markets and in the boardroom, a return to earnings growth and profitability by World Inc and a backlog of pending asset disposals.”

“Credit conditions are also supportive and we expect private equity and bank lending to pick up at some point next year.”

“We do think investors can take advantage of the growing interest in M&A as the likelihood of deals gets priced into stocks. The average take-out premium historically has been 30-40%, much of which is earned around the announcement of a deal. Merger arbitrage post bid announcement has earned a levered IRR around of 9% this year.”

“Despite a 27% decline in global M&A activity in 2009, deal volumes in Asia remained strong. At the current run rate, 2009 activity in the region will be up on 2008, taking APAC’s share of global M&A to 25%, from 6% in 1995. A meaningful pick-up in global activity in 2010 will require a rebound from trough deal volumes this year in the Americas and Europe.”

“M&A activity could be especially prevalent in the Financials and Healthcare sector due to the shock of increased regulation affecting their industry dynamics. The Healthcare sector, along with Technology is one of the best placed sectors from a balance sheet point of view too, generating high free cash flow and with limited debt on the balance sheet (or net cash in the case of Tech). Asset disposals at the Industrials and Materials sectors could be a theme if excess capacity pressures intensify.”

Despite a dismal couple of years for M&A, the strategists also say there has been a longer-term shift to a higher “natural rate” of mergers than in previous eras (see graph), as dealmaking benefits from globalisation, deregulation, privatisation and the development of financing markets.